From grocery stores to healthcare facilities and automotive plants, rising prices and affordability are top of mind for millions of Americans right now. Some of them are Federal Reserve officials whose jobs actually require them to keep inflation in check for the rest of us. Several Fed regional presidents said Jan. 15 that ongoing inflation pressures are prompting them to pause interest-rate cuts, explaining that a cooling labor market appears to be stabilizing. “The most important thing facing us is w ...

The December U.S. jobs report was just good enough to persuade investors the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates again in January. Stubborn inflation could ensure the Fed stands pat. ...

Market Overview - US stocks experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq leading the drop, falling almost 2% amid a shift from tech to value stocks [1] - The S&P 500 dropped approximately 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.5% [1] Treasury Yields and Investor Sentiment - Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.18% and the 30-year yield rising above 4.85% [2] - Investors are moving away from tech stocks due to renewed concerns about AI over-valuations, as Broadcom's earnings report failed to provide clarity on AI profitability, leading to a drop of over 10% in its shares despite a quarterly earnings beat [2] Cyclical Stocks and Economic Outlook - Cyclical stocks gained traction following the Federal Reserve's third interest-rate cut of the year, which has fostered optimism for US economic growth [3] - The rate cut has also contributed to a surge in gold prices, reaching a record high and positioning the precious metal for its best year since 1979 [3] Corporate Developments - Lululemon's shares surged more than 9% after the announcement of CEO Calvin McDonald's exit at the end of January, following a period of disappointing sales [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve could have postponed its decisions regarding interest rates until more comprehensive economic reports on inflation and employment were available, according to Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank [1] Group 1 - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President suggests that the Fed's timing on interest rate decisions may not have been optimal [1]

Core Insights - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,906 per ton, driven by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and an upgraded growth forecast for the US economy [2][3] - The Fed's new growth projection for the US economy is 2.3% for next year, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8%, with inflation expected to slow to 2.4% [3] - The positive outlook for the US economy is expected to enhance demand for industrial metals, despite a recent decline in Chinese copper consumption [4] Industry Summary - Copper has increased nearly 35% this year, influenced by mine disruptions and anticipated shortages outside the US, as traders prepare for potential tariffs [5] - The renewable energy sector is driving long-term demand for copper, contributing to its price rally [5] - Other industrial metals also saw price increases, with tin rising 4.4% to $41,751 per ton and zinc jumping 3.9% [5]

Group 1 - US stock futures declined after Oracle's earnings raised concerns about AI overspending, jeopardizing the recent Wall Street rally following the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut [1][2] - Oracle reported a miss on cloud sales and increased its data center spending by $15 billion, leading to a more than 10% drop in its shares due to worries about tech valuations and the potential failure of significant AI investments [2] - The broader market had previously recovered, finishing higher after the Federal Reserve's decision to lower rates for the third time this year, with indications of a gradual easing path ahead [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is prepared to "wait and see" regarding economic conditions, noting that tariffs from the previous administration have contributed to inflation pressures [4] - Upcoming economic indicators, including jobless claims and delayed readings on wholesale inventories and trade sales, are expected to receive heightened attention [4] - Earnings reports from companies such as Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon are anticipated, which may influence market sentiment [4]

Bitcoin (BTC) rose Monday, supposedly in anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this week, although a continued rally in Treasury yields signaled caution. The Fed is expected to cut the target interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.5%-3.75% range. It would be the third straight reduction in the cost of borrowing, amounting to a cumulative easing of 175 basis points since September 2024. Rate cuts typically inject liquidity into the financial system. This cheaper capital encourages lending ...

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee is anticipated to announce a quarter-point interest-rate cut [1] - Earnings reports are expected from companies such as Toll Brothers, AutoZone, and Campbell's [1]

Mortgage rates dropped slightly this week despite some volatility in the Treasury yields they closely track. The average 30-year mortgage rate was 6.19% for the week through Wednesday, down from 6.23% a week earlier. The average 15-year mortgage rate was 5.54%, from 5.51%. Global bond yields, including the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is most closely linked to mortgage rates, spiked on Monday after the Bank of Japan signaled that it was likely to raise interest rates this month. But in recent day ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin has shown a tentative rebound, reaching a two-week high of approximately $93,965, marking its highest intraday level since November 17 [1] - The broader crypto market has experienced a significant selloff since early October, resulting in over $1 trillion in market value being wiped out [2] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing sense of optimism among investors, who are hopeful for a recovery in the crypto market despite previous false dawns [3] - The recovery in stock market risk appetite is beginning to influence the crypto space positively, with Bitcoin's price nudging above $93,000, which may indicate a more sustained upward movement [3] Recent Developments - Bitcoin's price fluctuations have been influenced by various factors, including comments from Strategy Inc.'s CEO regarding potential selling of Bitcoin to meet debt obligations, and the establishment of a $1.4 billion reserve for cash availability [5] - Positive developments include the SEC Chairman's plans for an "innovation exemption" for digital asset companies and Vanguard Group's decision to allow trading of cryptocurrency-focused ETFs and mutual funds on its platform [6] - Analysts have noted signs of an upward trend forming for Bitcoin, although caution remains as investors may be hesitant to chase the rally after recent downturns [7]