Group 1 - The latest price of London gold is 1231.78 CNY per gram, showing an increase of 21.86 CNY, or 1.81%, from the previous trading day, indicating a continued upward trend [1] - The opening price for the day was 1210.12 CNY per gram, with a daily high of 1249.54 CNY and a low of 1209.87 CNY [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75%, with a 10 to 2 vote, indicating a cautious approach towards future rate adjustments [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted improvements in the U.S. economy, with signs of stabilization in the labor market, while removing previous concerns about increasing risks to employment [2] - There is ongoing investigation related to Fed Chair Powell, with a grand jury subpoena issued, although it remains unclear when the requested documents are due [2] Group 3 - The technical analysis for London gold indicates a high-level consolidation pattern, with prices fluctuating between 5444 and 5526 USD per ounce, and a slight decline of 0.04% observed [3] - Key technical indicators show that both daily and 4-hour RSI are in the overbought zone, suggesting a potential short-term correction [3] - The MACD indicates a divergence, with a strong mid-term bullish trend but short-term signals suggesting a possible pullback [3] Group 4 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 5526-5530 USD, 5600-5627 USD, and 5750-5800 USD, while support levels are at 5480-5500 USD, 5440-5460 USD, and 5380-5400 USD [4] - A breach of the 5250-5300 USD support level could alter the short-term upward trend [4] Group 5 - The short-term probability of a correction is estimated at 65%, with a potential technical pullback of 2%-5% targeting 5380-5440 USD [5] - The mid-term outlook suggests an 80% probability of continued upward movement, driven by favorable fundamentals such as Fed rate cuts and global central bank gold purchases [5] - The overall trend remains bullish, with adjustments expected to provide further upward potential, contingent on key level stability and volume [5]

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, choosing to stand pat after cutting rates three times at the end of 2025. ...

ToplineThe Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to pause interest rate cuts, with several policymakers and economists forecasting further cuts later this year—as concerns spread in recent weeks about the central bank’s independence from the Trump administration.Some Fed officials have forecast interest rate cuts later this year, but not in January.Getty ImagesKey FactsThe Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 in favor of holding interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%.Fed governors Stephen Miran and Christopher ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts, with some officials forecasting potential cuts later in the year amid concerns about the central bank's independence from the Trump administration [1][7]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders have assigned a 2.8% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates from the current 3.5% to 3.75% range by a quarter point [1]. - Betting markets show a strong preference for no change in interest rates, with Polymarket and Kalshi indicating 99% odds of rates remaining between 3.5% and 3.75% [2]. - The Fed's "dot plot" suggests only one quarter-point cut is expected in 2026, with a potential cut in 2027, while current odds for cuts later this year are 17.4% in March, 28.1% in April, and 46.8% in June [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid advocates for holding the benchmark rate to achieve a 2% inflation target, emphasizing a modestly restrictive monetary policy [2]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who previously dissented on rate cuts, also supports maintaining current rates to address inflation [2]. - Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is comfortable with holding rates steady, believing a restrictive policy will aid in lowering inflation [2]. Group 3: Potential Leadership Changes - President Trump indicated he would announce a nominee to succeed Jerome Powell soon, with speculation that the announcement could coincide with the FOMC's January meeting [4][6]. - Possible candidates to replace Powell include Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder, with Rieder currently favored at 40% odds [6]. Group 4: Context of Federal Reserve's Independence - The Federal Reserve has resisted Trump's calls for more aggressive rate cuts, with Powell facing scrutiny and threats of a criminal indictment related to his Senate testimony [7]. - The investigation into Powell has been criticized as an attempt to undermine the Fed's independence, despite the White House asserting Trump's support for the Fed's political autonomy [7].

Group 1: Economic Events and Data Releases - The U.S. stock and bond markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, coinciding with the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland [1][9] - The delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for October and November is set to be released, along with the final reading for third-quarter Gross Domestic Product [2][4] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring inflation data ahead of its upcoming meeting, with officials divided on whether to continue lowering interest rates [4] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Netflix is expected to report on its quarterly earnings, which may provide insights into its acquisition efforts for Warner Brothers Discovery, potentially shifting to an all-cash offer [6] - Intel's stock has been rising due to optimism surrounding its new AI PC chip and significant investments from the U.S. government and Nvidia [7] - GE Aerospace is also reporting this week, with its stock near all-time highs following strong demand in commercial and military aviation [7] - United Airlines' earnings report is anticipated after Delta Air Lines reported a weaker-than-expected profit outlook [7] Group 3: Key Corporate Events - Several major companies, including Johnson & Johnson, 3M, and Travelers Companies, are scheduled to report earnings this week [8]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) reached a 1-week high, finishing up by +0.07%, driven by rising T-note yields and a drop in weekly US unemployment claims to a 1-month low of 199,000, which was a decrease of -16,000 from previous claims [1][3] - The markets are currently pricing in a 15% probability of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [3] Group 2: Fed Policy and Market Sentiment - Questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are limiting the dollar's gains, particularly after President Trump suggested he might fire Fed Chair Powell [2] - The dollar is under pressure as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while other central banks like the BOJ and ECB are expected to raise or maintain rates, respectively [4] - Concerns about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the likely candidate, are also bearish for the dollar [5] Group 3: Euro and Global Market Dynamics - The EUR/USD pair fell to a 1-week low, down by -0.03%, as the dollar's strength pressured the euro, compounded by ongoing concerns regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war [6]

Economic Indicators - Weekly initial unemployment claims in the US are expected to decrease by 11,000 to 225,000 [1] - November CPI is projected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to increase by 3.0% year-over-year [1] - Existing home sales for November are anticipated to rise by 1.2% month-over-month to 4.15 million [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December is expected to be revised upward by 0.2 to 53.5 [1] Mortgage Applications - US MBA weekly mortgage applications fell by 3.8% for the week ending December 12, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down by 2.8% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down by 3.6% [2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 5 basis points to 6.38% from 6.33% in the previous week [2] Stock Market Movements - Homebuilding stocks are experiencing declines, led by a 3% drop in Lennar after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS [4][13] - Energy producers are rising, with WTI crude oil increasing by over 1% following President Trump's announcement of an oil blockade on Venezuela [5][12] - Mixed performance in stock indexes: S&P 500 down by 0.05%, Dow Jones up by 0.43%, and Nasdaq down by 0.33% [6] International Markets - Overseas stock markets show mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by 0.21%, Shanghai Composite up by 1.19%, and Nikkei Stock 225 up by 0.26% [7] Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.17%, influenced by rising bond yields in Japan [4][8] - The yield curve is steepening, which is generally bearish for T-note prices, as investors buy short-term government debt and sell long-term debt [9] Company-Specific News - Jabil Inc reported Q1 net revenue of $8.31 billion, exceeding consensus estimates, and raised its 2026 net revenue forecast to $32.4 billion [14] - Netflix shares rose by over 2% as Warner Bros. Discovery plans to reject a takeover bid from Paramount Skydance [16] - Progressive Corp's net premiums written fell by 12% month-over-month, leading to a decline of over 3% in its stock [17]

Group 1 - European stocks are expected to open broadly flat as investors await central bank decisions, with the U.K.'s FTSE index slightly higher and Italy's FTSE MIB down 0.1% [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to maintain interest rates at 2% while likely raising its euro zone growth forecasts, which were previously set at 1.2% for annual GDP growth [2] - The Bank of England (BOE) is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% due to weak growth and rising unemployment concerns, with inflation data for November projected at 3.5% [3] Group 2 - U.S. stock futures declined after the S&P 500 experienced a third consecutive losing session, influenced by recent job data indicating a loss of 105,000 jobs in October but an addition of 64,000 jobs in November [4] - Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed results as investors analyzed Japan's trade data [4]

Group 1 - The current job market is heavily reliant on education and health services, with a noted lack of growth in manufacturing jobs [1] - There is a significant skills mismatch in the labor market, as there are not enough qualified workers for construction jobs, while there are sufficient candidates for healthcare roles [2][3] - The job creation numbers are seen as inadequate, with a call for a substantial increase in job growth to meet economic needs [3][4] Group 2 - There is a suggestion that lowering interest rates could stimulate job growth, aligning with some political perspectives [4] - The need for creative solutions in journalism and reporting on economic issues is emphasized, indicating a broader context of economic discussion [5]

Core Insights - Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. increased significantly last week, marking the largest single-week jump in five years, raising concerns about the job market [1][2] - The total number of unemployment benefits applications reached 236,000, which is 44,000 higher than the previous week's revised total of 192,000 and above Wall Street's expectations of 213,000 [2] - Continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.83 million, down approximately 100 million from the previous week [3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, citing a "gradually cooling" job market [4] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concerns that federal data on job creation may be overestimating actual job growth by up to 60,000 jobs per month [4] - Job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, indicating a potential discrepancy in labor market data [4]