They're never going to cut spending because of Congressional incentives.They can't keep rates high because of the ballooning government interest expense.They increasingly can't repay those obligations with real gains from productivity.Buy bitcoin.Capital Flows (@Globalflows):Remember when they told everyone that they'll just "inflate the debt away"Now the interest expense for the US government is a massive issue ...

Avery Sheffield is with us. Vanage Rock, co-founder, CIO, and senior portfolio manager. Good to have you.>> Great to be here. >> You care who the next Fed chair is. >> I think it Well, let's see. I think over the longer term it matters.Um, under the Trump administration, the next Fed chair, I think, is going to be, you know, chosen to uh be as compliant with Trump as as the markets will allow that person to be. So yes, I'm I I think if he if Trump does pick someone who would have more independence, I think ...

Wall Street strategists are sounding alarms that the US economy is drifting toward stagflation as the impact of trade tariffs start to show up, potentially restricting the ability of the Fed to slash interest-rates https://t.co/l3qrVXM50s ...

Rising housing costs, a limited supply of homes, and persistently high interest and mortgage rates have kept many potential homebuyers on the sidelines of the housing market this year, particularly in the most expensive markets. https://t.co/Q1TSzPhMPD ...

M&A Activity & Market Outlook - M&A activity experienced a slow start in the first half of 2025, but a strong July suggests a potential increase in momentum for the second half of the year [1][2] - Confidence in capital markets is growing, contributing to the elevated M&A activity [4] - The bid-ask gap has narrowed from approximately two points to about a half a point, making deals more affordable and aligning buyer and seller expectations [5] Interest Rates & Economic Factors - A lower cost of capital is desired to sustain deal-making activity, although current rates haven't stopped deals entirely [6] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts (two turns down) this year, fueling optimism [7][12] - The base case economic backdrop anticipates flat or declining inflation and a slight increase in GDP [12] Sector Focus - Technology is expected to remain a key sector for M&A activity for the next 5 years, driven by the race to acquire sophisticated AI technology [8][9] - Oil and gas, life sciences (due to strong cash reserves and the need to build R&D pipelines), and media and entertainment are also expected to see continued M&A activity [10] Regulatory Environment - Deregulation is considered a potential tailwind for companies seeking to consolidate [3] - The current administration's approach to regulation may be facilitating certain deals with fewer compromises [4]

Government and Economic Data Integrity - The integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is crucial for the economy, as it provides essential information on jobs and wages [2][3] - Undermining the credibility of statistical information, especially jobs reports, is compared to authoritarian tactics [4][8] - The reliability of U S statistics is important for both the government and the private sector globally [6] Presidential Actions and Economic Policy - The President believes jobs numbers are rigged, without providing specific evidence [1][10] - The President fired the BLS Commissioner, raising concerns about political interference in statistical reporting [4][5] - The President is considering candidates for Federal Reserve Chair, potentially favoring those who support lower interest rates [15][18][20] Trade and Tariffs - The President claims to be negotiating significant investment deals with other countries, but details are lacking [11][12] - There are concerns about whether these investment deals will materialize and what consequences exist if countries don't follow through [12][13] - The President suggests using higher tariffs as leverage if countries fail to meet investment commitments [12] Economic Uncertainty and Global Impact - The President's actions and decisions are seen as potentially dictatorial, affecting the entire world [22][23] - Concerns exist about the credibility of the Federal Reserve if the President appoints someone who will prioritize political goals over controlling inflation [23][24]

Industry Overview - The Zacks SBIC & Commercial Finance industry provides financing to small and mid-sized privately held firms, often underserved by traditional banks, focusing on customized financing solutions such as senior debt and equity capital [3] - The industry is currently facing challenges due to persistent high interest rates and tariff impacts, which are expected to reduce financing demand and slow investment income growth [1][5] Current Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25–4.5%, with a cautious approach to potential rate cuts due to economic uncertainties [4] - Elevated rates and tariff effects are likely to dampen demand for financing solutions, limiting transaction activity and growth in total investment income [5] Asset Quality Concerns - Following the COVID-19 pandemic, asset quality concerns arose as borrowers struggled to repay debts, although government stimulus and economic recovery helped mitigate delinquency rates [6] - Prolonged high interest rates may lead to further asset quality deterioration as portfolio companies face challenges in servicing their debt [7] Regulatory Changes - The 2018 SBCAA relaxed leverage limits for SBIC companies, allowing a debt-to-equity ratio increase from 1:1 to 2:1, providing funding flexibility and growth opportunities [8] Industry Performance Metrics - The Zacks SBIC & Commercial Finance industry ranks 144 out of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating underperformance in the near term [9][10] - The industry's earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised down by 10% over the past year, reflecting a declining confidence in growth potential [11] Stock Market Performance - Over the past year, the industry has gained only 3.9%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 composite and the Zacks Finance sector, which increased by 20.8% and 21.8%, respectively [13] Valuation Analysis - The industry has a trailing 12-month price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 0.94X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 12.86X, indicating a substantial discount compared to the broader market [16][18] Key Companies to Watch - **Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)**: A specialty finance firm focusing on U.S. middle-market companies, with a market cap of $15.8 billion and a debt of $14.1 billion as of June 30, 2025 [22][21] - **Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)**: A private equity firm with a market cap of $5.7 billion, specializing in lower-middle-market companies, holding total investments valued at $5.1 billion [25][27] - **Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)**: A specialty finance company providing venture capital, with a market cap of $3.4 billion and a total investment portfolio valued at $4.2 billion as of June 30, 2025 [31][32]

Mitch, this is something you watch very closely, the M&A activity and and what it means for the overall economy. What has the first seven months of 2025 told you about how much momentum we can see in the back half of the year for M&A. >> Well, the year got off to a a sort of slow start, Dom, but we are seeing a very strong July and hopefully that will lead into the second half of the year with a continued increase.You know, if you look at January through June, it looked like the Swiss Alps. It was up, it wa ...

Market Overview - Markets experienced a strong rebound, with the Dow gaining +585 points (+1.34%), S&P 500 up +91 points (+1.47%), Nasdaq increasing +403 points (+1.95%), and Russell 2000 rising +44 points (+2.05%) [1] Bond Market - Bond yields remained steady, with the 10-year yield at +4.20% and the 2-year yield at +3.69%, indicating a potential need for interest rate reductions [2] Economic Indicators - Factory Orders for June reported a decline of -4.8%, which was better than expected, following a record high increase of +8.3% in the previous month [3] Company Earnings - Palantir Technologies reported Q2 earnings of 16 cents per share, beating expectations, with revenues reaching $1.0 billion, surpassing the anticipated $938.3 million, marking a +68% growth in the U.S. market, +93% in commercial, and +53% in government sectors [4] - Palantir's revenue guidance for the next quarter is set at a low-end of $1.083 billion and $4.14 billion for the full year, exceeding previous estimates [5] - Hims & Hers Health reported earnings of 17 cents per share, missing consensus estimates, with revenues of $545 million falling short of the expected $553.2 million, leading to a -12% drop in after-market trading [6] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals saw a significant decline of -13.5% despite beating earnings estimates, due to the failure of a pain drug in Phase 2 testing and the resignation of CSO David Altshuler [7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - Anticipation builds for Q2 earnings reports from major companies including Caterpillar, McDonald's, Pfizer, and Amgen, with AMD and Rivian reporting after the market closes [8] Trade Deficit and Economic Data - The U.S. Trade Deficit is expected to improve to -$61.0 billion from -$75.5 billion, with S&P and ISM Services PMI expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [9]

Economic Indicators - Jobs data is a key factor influencing financial markets [1] - Inflation trends significantly impact market behavior [1] - Interest rates play a crucial role in shaping financial market dynamics [1] Market Trends - Stock market is experiencing a bull run [1] - Artificial intelligence is a relevant factor in the market [1] - Bitcoin's performance is noteworthy in the current market landscape [1]