start uh chairman. No, Governor Waller. Let me just call me Chris. >> Chris.Okay. Chris. Um let me start with uh the uh jobs data we got yesterday, which I think is uh people are wondering how uh the Federal Reserve is processing and how you're personally processing this data here.We had a tick up to the unemployment rate at 4.6%. Uh return to job growth in November after job losses in October. What's the state of the labor market in your opinion.Well, earlier this summer when the jobs numbers were looking ...

Buckle up, kiddos. And keep your wallets and portfolios close. The Federal Reserve heads into 2026 swirling in a messy mix of economic pressures and political uncertainties. While the actual impact on interest rates remains to be seen, there is little doubt the takeaways from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee are ripe with concerns about the turgid tensions in inflation rates and the job market. Plus, there’s the Shakespearean drama engulfing the replacement of Jerome Powell when ...

to follow up on your comments about job growth. Why is it so much worse than the official data is suggesting. >> Oh, well, we just we know I think it's it's um this is I don't think this is particularly controversial.There's a it's very difficult to to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount.And so we we expected and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would b ...

Job Growth and Economic Indicators - The September jobs report indicates that 119,000 jobs were added to the economy, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [1][2] - The report is considered solid, showing job growth and increased participation in the labor force, which is viewed positively by the Labor Secretary [2][4] - Since President Trump took office, nearly 2 million jobs have been created for native-born Americans, with 97,000 of the new jobs reported in the private sector [3][4] Sector-Specific Insights - The construction sector saw an increase of about 20,000 jobs, reflecting the administration's focus on infrastructure and permitting reforms [5][8] - Manufacturing job growth has not met expectations yet, but future investments and trade deals are anticipated to improve this sector [6][9] - The healthcare sector also experienced job growth, contributing to the overall positive employment landscape [9] Future Outlook - The administration is working to ensure that skilled workers are available for jobs, with a focus on reducing the unemployment rate further [7] - Investments totaling $18 trillion are expected to bring more manufacturing jobs online in the future, particularly in data centers and the traded sector [6]

US job growth picked up in September and the unemployment rate ticked higher, suggesting the labor market showed signs of stabilizing before the government shutdown. https://t.co/hDYxhIu2gF ...

Labor Market Analysis - The government shutdown in October has created uncertainty regarding the availability and quality of key economic data, specifically inflation and employment figures [1][2] - November employment data collection is delayed and may be of questionable quality due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting market understanding of the economy's health [3][4] - Alternative indicators suggest the labor market is holding up, with Brailio Labs showing an increase in total non-farm payrolls and jobless claims remaining low [5][6] - The economy is likely still performing adequately, but a clearer picture may take another month to emerge due to data collection disruptions [6] - Economists are widening their data sources due to the unavailability of regular data from the BLS, CPI, and non-farm payrolls [9] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Implications - The consensus among economists leans towards labor weakness as a greater risk than higher inflation in the coming months [9] - Job growth slowdown in the past 6 months may be attributed to slowing immigration, impacting labor supply rather than labor demand [10][11] - The Federal Reserve published a paper expecting job growth over the next 12 months to be 30,000, a significant decline due to slowing immigration [12] - The Federal Reserve's ability to address the situation is limited if the issue is labor supply, as opposed to labor demand [13]

Core Points - The Trump administration has successfully reduced the federal workforce by 100,000 employees since January, while private sector jobs have increased [1] - Government spending has decreased by 2.5% in the current quarter compared to the same period last year [1] - All new jobs created during Trump's administration have come from the private sector, emphasizing the importance of a strong private workforce [1] Private Sector Job Growth - The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations according to ADP [2] - From February to August, approximately 404,000 private sector jobs were added in the U.S. economy [4] Federal Workforce Changes - The federal workforce has decreased from 3.002 million in February to 2.918 million in August, indicating a reduction of at least 84,000 jobs since the beginning of Trump's second term [5] - Delayed reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may reveal further declines in the federal workforce [6] Government Initiatives - The Trump administration's DOGE initiative provided deferred buyouts to federal workers, allowing them to receive pay while effectively stopping work until the end of September [7]

Core Insights - The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking a recovery from a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, with the trade, transportation, and utilities industry leading the growth [1][2] - Job growth was modest compared to earlier in the year, with ADP Chief Economist noting that this was the first job addition since July [2] - Year-over-year pay growth remained flat, with job-stayers seeing a 4.5% increase and job-changers at 6.7%, indicating a balance in supply and demand [3] Industry Performance - Five industries added jobs in October: - Trade, transportation, and utilities: +47,000 jobs - Education and health services: +26,000 jobs - Financial activities: +11,000 jobs - Natural resources and mining: +7,000 jobs - Construction: +5,000 jobs [6] - Five industries experienced job losses: - Information: -17,000 jobs - Professional and business services: -15,000 jobs - Other services: -13,000 jobs - Leisure and hospitality: -6,000 jobs - Manufacturing: -3,000 jobs [6] Establishment Size Impact - Only large establishments (500 or more employees) added jobs, contributing 73,000 jobs - Small businesses (1-49 employees) cut 10,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-499 employees) reduced their workforce by 21,000 [7]

Let's get back to the broader markets and the outlook for the economy after consumer confidence this month did fall to the lowest level since April. Joining us this morning is Medlife Investment Management chief market strategist Drew Mattis. Been watching a lot of this stuff closely.Drew, good to see you again. >> Good to good to be here. So, Conference Board is is kind of instructive and it it does fit a little bit with the narrative being built at Amazon and GM and Paramount uh where headcount is either ...

Economic Outlook - Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates significant gains in investment, productivity, and job growth across America [1]