1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's past economic growth model relying on investment and exports is unstable, and it is necessary to switch to a consumption - driven model for sustainable development. The current actual consumption rate is at least 15% lower than the optimal level, and there is a large room for improvement [3][11][14][114]. - Since 2010, China's household consumption rate has shown an upward trend after hitting the bottom. Currently, the household consumption propensity dominates the trend of the household consumption rate. How to improve the household consumption propensity is the core focus of subsequent policies [3][25][44]. - The United States and Japan have successfully transformed into consumer - driven economies through different paths, providing valuable references for China. However, China faces problems such as premature population aging, relatively lagging urbanization, and relatively insufficient income growth, so the consumption transformation may be more difficult. It is estimated that China needs about 15 years to become a consumer - driven country [4][46][114][115]. - The core constraints on China's household consumption rate are the systematic pressure on the consumption propensity on the demand side and the structural imbalance between supply and demand of service consumption on the supply side. Policies should focus on multiple dimensions such as increasing property income, improving the social security system, optimizing the population structure, building a consumption culture, and increasing the supply of high - quality service consumption [5][75][116]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1.大国发展引擎转变：消费转型是中国持续发展的必经之路 - The structure of investment, exports, and consumption determines the medium - and long - term development quality of the economy. China's export - oriented and investment - driven models have limitations, while the consumption - driven model is more stable, long - lasting, and sustainable [11]. - China's final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP is lower than the global average, and the capital formation as a percentage of GDP is significantly higher than that of international mainstream economies, showing an obvious investment - driven characteristic [14][15]. - By constructing a dynamic analysis framework of the optimal and actual consumption rates, it is found that China's actual household consumption rate has been lower than the optimal level since 1990. After 2010, the consumption gap began to narrow, and there is still at least a 15% room for improvement [21]. - An increase in interest rates leads to a decrease in the optimal household consumption rate, indicating that the substitution effect dominates the consumption - savings decision in China, and a lower interest rate is conducive to the recovery of consumption [21]. 3.2.消费率演变三阶段：基于LMDI因子分解探寻低消费原因 - Since the reform and opening - up, China's household consumption rate has gone through three stages: an initial up - and - down stage from 1978 - 2000, a continuous decline stage from 2000 - 2010, and a recovery stage since 2010 [25]. - Using the LMDI model to decompose the change in the household consumption rate, it is found that the consumption propensity and primary distribution mainly dominate the long - term trend of China's household consumption rate. After 2005, the consumption propensity became the core variable explaining household consumption [32]. - In different stages, different factors affected the consumption rate. From 1978 - 2000, inflation risks and government policies led to a decline in the consumption rate; from 2000 - 2010, the substitution of external demand for domestic demand and the imbalance in primary distribution led to a continuous decline in the consumption rate; since 2010, the household consumption propensity has dominated the trend of the household consumption rate, and the COVID - 19 pandemic has had an impact on the consumption rate [35][41][44]. 3.3.美日转型启示录 3.3.1.美国经验：人口红利+消费信贷创新 - After World War II, the United States achieved an economic transformation from a production - and - export - driven model to a consumption - oriented society. This transformation required government intervention in multiple aspects [47]. - The release of the population dividend, the improvement of urbanization, and the continuous growth of disposable income provided a foundation for the expansion of domestic demand in the United States. The government also promoted the development of consumption through credit innovation and the improvement of the social security system [47][51]. 3.3.2.日本经验：国民收入倍增计划 - In the 1970s, Japan transformed from a production - oriented economy to a consumption - oriented economy under the pressure of external environment deterioration. Although Japan faced problems such as premature population aging, the "National Income Doubling Plan" increased residents' purchasing power, and the improvement of the social security system and financial services promoted consumption [53][57][66]. 3.3.3.中国启示：城镇化、收入增收仍有空间 - China faces problems such as premature population aging, relatively lagging urbanization, and relatively insufficient income growth compared with the United States and Japan during their transformation periods. There is still potential for urbanization and income growth in China [71]. 3.4.政策工具箱：多维消费驱动战略 3.4.1.提升财产性收入：从利息依赖到权益赋能 - China's labor compensation ratio is comparable to that of major global economies, but the property income structure shows an extreme differentiation of "interest dependence and equity absence", which suppresses the consumption propensity. Policies should focus on capital market reform to increase the proportion of equity dividends and activate property income [76][78]. 3.4.2.社保制度迭代：从普惠性覆盖到质量提升 - China's social security system has problems such as incomplete coverage and significant differences in pension levels between urban and rural areas, which restrict the release of consumption momentum. Future policies should focus on improving the inclusiveness and quality of the social security system [80][89]. 3.4.3.人口结构优化：释放短中长期消费潜力 - China's low fertility rate and increasing dependency ratio put pressure on consumption. Fertility support policies can directly increase consumption in the short term and release the consumption potential of the youth group in the long term. The silver economy also has great potential [95][100]. 3.4.4.观念革新：消费文化构建 - The formation of a consumption - oriented society requires the construction of a consumption culture. Currently, Chinese residents' consumption concepts are still relatively conservative, and policies should balance the traditional thrift concept and the demand for consumption - driven transformation [103][107]. 3.4.5.增加优质服务消费供给 - China's service consumption has problems such as a low proportion of service industry added value in GDP and a low proportion of service - related expenditures in total consumption. Policies should focus on expanding the opening - up of the service industry, building a cross - border service trade promotion system, and increasing the supply of high - quality service consumption [109][112]. 3.5.总结与展望 - China needs to switch to a consumption - driven growth model. The consumption transformation may be more difficult than that of the United States and Japan, and it is estimated to take about 15 years. - Future policies should focus on improving the household consumption propensity from four dimensions: income, population structure, social security, and cultural construction, and increase the supply of high - quality service consumption on the supply side [114][115][116].