2026，我们在挑战中寻找一些确定性。全球经济增长前景如何？中国经济有哪些新动向？美联储是否会激进降息？中国货币政策如何继续适度宽松？财政 政策怎样促进居民增收？黄金是否会续创新高？人民币会继续升值吗？房地产市场风险能否出清？美股AI泡沫会被戳破吗？A股能否站稳4000点？科技股 能否持续带动市场？ 第一财经：2026年全球经济增长前景如何，中国经济有哪些新动向？ 导语 带着这些问题，第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 第一财经携手十位"年度机构首席经济学家"，为你预测2026。 2025，全球经济在波动中寻求新的平衡。 全球 彭文生：地缘竞争日益成为影响全球经济和市场的关注点，这既涉及传统的经贸，更包括人工智能等创新领域的博弈。资源禀赋、规模经济、交易成本是 国际贸易与全球产业链的三个决定因素。其中，资源禀赋和传统理解的比较优势有关（劳动密集、资本密集、自然资源）；交易成本包括运输成本、关税 和非关税保护主义措施等；对于美国关税的影响，中国的规模经济优势是一个重要因素。 在新的地缘形势下，以内部循环为主体、内外部循环相互促进的双循环呈现一些新的动向。内循环方面，实体经济供给改善、需 ...

Group 1 - The consumer market in 2025 has transitioned from a broad recovery narrative to a phase of structural differentiation, focusing on balance amidst competition and transformation [1] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is significant, accounting for 53.5% [1] - Key themes in the industry discussions have shifted from "recovery" to "differentiation" and "transformation" [1] Group 2 - Wahaha is undergoing significant changes following the passing of its founder, with challenges in leadership succession and channel reforms leading to potential mergers and eliminations [2] - The company achieved a revenue growth of 500 million yuan in 2025, amidst speculation about its future structure [2] - The beverage industry is experiencing a shift from rapid expansion to a focus on supply chain development and market positioning, as seen with brands like Bawang Tea and Mixue Ice City [2] Group 3 - Pop Mart has seen its stock price increase nearly 15 times over 17 months, becoming a notable player in the consumer market [3] - The popularity of the Labubu toy reflects the emotional engagement of consumers, particularly among the younger generation [3][4] - However, the prices of some products have started to decline, indicating a potential cooling in demand [3] Group 4 - The film "Nezha: The Devil's Child" has made a significant impact on the 2025 consumer market, generating a box office of 15.446 billion yuan and accounting for over 52% of the total box office in the first half of the year [6] - This highlights the extreme "head effect" in consumer spending, showcasing the market's structural differentiation [6] - Brands that can accurately capture niche demands and build competitive barriers are likely to thrive in this complex environment [6]

从去年到今年，促消费、促内需，一直是社会的重要议题。 此前，重要工作会议更是将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"定位明年八大重点任务之首。 但回望过去一年，在大盘整体上涨的趋势之中，跌幅居前的，仍大多是消费板块。 但，转机往往在危机之中酝酿，在今年最惨的板块之中，又到底能否酝酿出新的机遇呢？ 01 白酒板块 年内跌幅12.44% "买你的白酒去吧，老登。" 这句以一己之力打造出老登股和小登股概念的话，足以表现出如今白酒板块的尴尬处境。 同花顺数据显示，在申万二级行业指数之中，今年年内下跌的16个行业中，有十个均为消费板块。 | 申万二级行业指数排名 | | --- | | | 简称 | 年涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | T | 专业连锁II | -14.72 | | 2 | 铁路公路 | -12.86 | | 3 | 三恩山 | -12.44 | | 4 | 房屋建设 II | -11.80 | | 5 | 非白酒 | -11.61 | | 6 | 出版 | -7.22 | | 7 | 调味发酵品 II | -6.04 | | 8 | 煤炭开采 | -5.55 | | g | 中 ...

在国内消费方面，陶川认为，如何推动消费形态从"剩余消费型"转向"乐于消费"，将成为明年政策发力 的关键锚点。当前正在推进从"投资于物"向"投资于人"的转型，正体现了对这一深层问题的回应。 具体路径上，考虑到服务消费涉及民生保障、政策配套等多重维度，且各地发展基础与消费习惯差异显 著，大规模统一推进的条件尚不成熟，陶川预计，服务消费创新将采取"边行边试"的推进策略，浙江、 广东等"乐于消费型"地区有望率先开展服务消费场景创新试点，为全国层面的政策推广积累实践经验。 资本市场方面，陶川表示，A股市场稳健上涨的核心特征在于市场底部的逐步抬升。"但这并非意味着 只涨不跌的单边市场预期。"他表示，今年资本市场的一项有益实践，与此前的"稳汇率"有异曲同工之 妙，即在确立底部支撑后，避免让市场形成单边预期。 陶川 国联民生首席经济学家陶川： 新蓝图开启 结构转型激活经济与市场活力 ◎卢伊 记者 徐蔚 12月26日，在2025上证（无锡）新质生产力研讨会暨第七届上证最佳分析师评选颁奖仪式上，国联民生 证券首席经济学家陶川在发表题为《新蓝图下的宏观与市场》的主旨演讲时，对中国出口结构、消费潜 力和资本市场等方面进行前瞻分析。他 ...

每周 一 景 ： 云南长江第一湾 金沙江 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观 】金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破7 全球大类资产表现： 上周（2025.12.22-2025.12.26），全球大类资产价格中，主要经济体股市上涨。其中，日经225指数上涨2.5%，上证指数上涨1.9%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 1.7%，标普500指数上涨1.4%，发达市场股票指数上涨1.1%，恒生指数上涨0.5%。 大宗商品普遍上涨。其中，COMEX铜上涨6.7%，伦敦金现上涨4.4%，南华商品指数上涨4.0%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨1.6%，IPE布油期货上涨0.4%。 债市方面，10年期美债收益率及中债总全价指数较前一周维持不变，国内10Y国债期货价格上涨0.14%。 外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回落0.7%，人民币兑美元升值0.5%，日元兑美元升值0.7%。 美国经济： 三季度GDP强劲增长。美国第三季度GDP同比增长2.33%，环比增长4.30%。工业总产值超预期。美国11月工业总产值同比增长2.29%，环比增长 0.22%。核心资本品订单回升。美国剔除飞机的非国防资本品订单10月环比增长0.52%。产能利用率微升。美国产 ...

地产和消费的进一步政策，可能要经过上半年的演绎之后，才会相机抉择。 中央经济工作会议定调是比较温和的托底而非强刺激，更多是对 2025 年已有政策的延续，没有较大的 调整转向。 政策基调是稳妥布局、渐进推进，想要稳住目前的增长水平、部分减轻通缩压力，但没有体现出对实现 再通胀、打破通缩循环进行强刺激或较大路径调整的诉求。 考虑到这些因素，我们对 2026 年的增长，特别是名义 GDP 增长的预期，还是保持在大概 4% 出头的名 义 GDP 增速，这比市场的一致预期更保守一点。 对于明年的财政政策、货币政策、房地产和消费政策而言：财政尽管总量上比较温和，但可能会前置到 一季度和上半年，用基建投资作为抓手；货币政策真正降息降准空间不是特别大；地产的进一步扶持政 策和消费的进一步刺激政策，可能要靠形势的演绎，也就是形势比人强，要经过上半年的演绎之后，政 策才会相机抉择。 特别是中国占全球出口市场的份额已经15%，未来五年有望再上层楼，达到16%~17%。也就是说中国 出口增速依然会高于全球贸易增长，会得到更多的市场份额。 为什么去中国化不会使得中国份额下降？总体而言，这里面有很多所谓的贸易转移，还是中国企业走向 了 ...

大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：2025 终盘宏观策略谈 20251215 摘要 中国 2026 年名义 GDP 增长预期约为 4%，低于市场一致预期，财政政 策预计一季度和上半年将侧重基建投资，货币政策降息降准空间有限， 倾向于结构性工具。 房地产市场方面，按揭利率补贴政策预计在 2026 年二季度推出，若范 围广、力度大且持续时间长，有望稳定市场预期，大城市按揭利率或接 近租金回报率。 消费领域，延续国补以旧换新计划，并可能推出服务业消费补贴，预计 在 2026 年下半年出台，旨在应对消费者不愿加杠杆问题，并防范骗补 行为。 中国在新兴前沿赛道如电池、电动汽车、机器人、光伏等领域具有先发 优势，理工科毕业生占比高，研发投入增加，确保关键赛道领先地位， 出口份额有望提升至 16%-17%。 美国内需改善及库存周期见底对东亚经济体包括中国产生积极影响，科 技板块短期受益于美国 AI 资本开支，长期来看，美国非科技出口也将带 来正面外部效应。 中国需继续推进向消费转型，加强社会保障福利，特别是农民工社保补 贴，以增强消费能力，纠偏重生产轻消费、重供给轻福利的问题，实现 更均衡的发展目标。 预计 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has rebounded after briefly falling below 1400 CNY per share, closing at 1426 CNY on December 15, with a market capitalization of 1.79 trillion CNY, ranking sixth in the A-share market [2] Group 1: Stock Performance - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has increased for four consecutive trading days, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment [2] - The stock price difference between Guizhou Moutai and Cambricon has narrowed to nearly 100 CNY [2] Group 2: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Recent reports indicate that Guizhou Moutai has implemented a volume control policy, which has led to a rebound in the prices of Moutai liquor on third-party platforms [2][4] - On December 14, the wholesale price of the 2025 53-degree 500ml Moutai rose to 1590 CNY per bottle, an increase of 70 CNY from the previous day [2] - However, on December 15, the prices slightly decreased, with the wholesale price for the same product falling to 1560 CNY [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Guizhou Moutai's distributors recently held a meeting to discuss channel strategies for 2026, focusing on core products while potentially reducing the output of non-standard Moutai products [4] - The company plans to stop the distribution of unfulfilled quotas for 2025 to stabilize the market [4] Group 4: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges such as slowing growth, insufficient short-term demand, and long-term demographic changes [5] - Guizhou Moutai is exploring innovative consumption scenarios and retail formats to expand its consumer reach and transition from merely selling liquor to promoting a lifestyle [5] - The food and beverage index, including Moutai, has seen a pullback in December, attributed to a slight slowdown in monthly sales data [6]

Core Insights - The current domestic consumption market is characterized by a "slow recovery and transformation" [2] - Key areas of market transformation include the rise of service consumption, multi-dimensional upgrades in consumption quality, and robust growth in rural consumption [2][3] Group 1: Consumption Market Trends - Service consumption has emerged as a significant driver of consumption growth [2] - Consumption transformation is advancing across four dimensions: digitalization, personalization, refinement, and branding [2] - Rural consumption growth continues to outpace urban areas, highlighting the vitality of lower-tier markets [2] Group 2: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - Focus on stabilizing expectations and increasing confidence through active employment policies and investments in key social sectors [3] - Promote income growth and optimize distribution to enhance the purchasing power of middle and low-income groups [3] - Encourage supply-side innovation and improve the consumption environment by aligning products with market demand [3] - Develop diverse consumption scenarios by integrating cultural, commercial, tourism, and sports elements to stimulate consumer activity [3][4] Group 3: Long-term Vision - Consumption is deemed a crucial engine for economic growth, necessitating a systematic and long-term approach to fully unleash its potential [4]

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao Co., Ltd. is facing significant operational challenges as reflected in its Q3 2025 report, with both revenue and net profit declining year-on-year, indicating a deeper issue related to its long-term reliance on high-end products and a weak product matrix [2][26]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the year-to-date period is 23.13 billion yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is 10.76 billion yuan, down 7.17% [3][4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities has decreased by 21.20%, significantly outpacing the declines in revenue and net profit, indicating a sharp drop in sales collection efficiency [5][6]. Group 2: Debt Structure - The company has seen a 64.67% reduction in long-term borrowings, dropping from 6.28 billion yuan to 2.22 billion yuan, while short-term liabilities have increased by 39.59% [7][9]. - This shift in debt structure has led to a mismatch between available funds and repayment needs, raising concerns about the company's short-term solvency [9][10]. Group 3: Resource Allocation - Marketing expenditures have not translated into revenue growth, with sales expenses decreasing by 3.23% despite a significant increase in prepaid advertising expenses [11][14]. - R&D spending has decreased by 10.80%, raising concerns about the company's long-term competitiveness in an industry that is increasingly focused on innovation and quality [15][17]. Group 4: Governance Issues - The company's governance structure is characterized by concentrated ownership, with the top two shareholders holding over 50% of the shares, potentially leading to rigid decision-making processes [18][20]. - The effectiveness of the company's stock incentive plans is questioned, as the continuous decline in revenue and profit suggests insufficient alignment between incentives and performance [21][23]. Group 5: Reliance on Non-Recurring Gains - The company has relied on non-recurring gains, such as government subsidies and financial asset gains, to support its performance, which are not sustainable in the long term [24][26]. - The increase in non-operating expenses, particularly donations, during a period of financial strain raises concerns about the balance between corporate social responsibility and shareholder returns [26].