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液化石油气日报:LPG海运费上涨,到岸成本受到支撑-20250819
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 07:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. However, the recent marginal improvement in chemical - end demand and the increase in freight rates are providing some downside support. The spot price of domestic mainstream LPG is stable, with downstream purchasing on demand and sellers having no inventory concerns. Overseas supply is generally abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has slightly decreased but remains abundant. The combustion - end demand is weak due to high summer temperatures, while the chemical - end demand has marginally improved, with the PDH operating rate rising to around 78%, at a high level this year but with limited further upward momentum. In terms of trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect oscillations and focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels, while there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Analysis - On August 18, the domestic regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan/ton; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market 4350 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4530 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market 4378 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 572 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 549 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4491 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for propane and 4311 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was at 564 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 541 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4428 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) for propane and 4248 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillations, focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].