Market Performance - On August 14, the brokerage and fintech sectors experienced a strong morning rally, with companies like Hengbao Co., Ltd. achieving three consecutive trading limit increases, and others such as Zhongke Jincai and Jida Zhengyuan hitting the daily limit [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.18 trillion yuan, marking a return above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index touching 3688.63 points, the highest since December 14, 2021 [8] Financial Data Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that in July, the new social financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan. The total social financing stock grew by 9.0% year-on-year, and M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year [6] - The M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, with the M2-M1 spread narrowing to 3.2% from 3.7% [9] Institutional Analysis - The increase in M1 and M2 exceeded expectations, with non-bank deposits rising by 2.14 trillion yuan in July, contributing significantly to M2 growth [9] - There is a notable shift in household savings, with excess savings accumulating in bank deposits. As deposit rates decline, there is a growing trend of funds moving into wealth management products, indirectly entering the equity market [9] - The two-way financing balance reaching 2 trillion yuan indicates strong bullish sentiment in the short term, although its proportion relative to A-share trading volume is lower than in 2015, suggesting a relatively safe position [9] - Upcoming domestic and international events are expected to influence market dynamics, with non-bank financials, particularly brokerages, likely to experience significant volatility [9]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that while the growth of M1 and M2 in July exceeded market expectations, the new loans and social financing fell short, reflecting a complex interplay of factors including changes in financing structure, seasonal influences, bond issuance disruptions, and shifts in household investment behavior [1] Group 1: Monetary Supply - M2 and M1 growth rates surpassed market expectations, suggesting a potential acceleration of household investments into the stock market [1] - The increase in M1 is partly attributed to households redeeming wealth management products, which leads to a shift of funds from off-balance sheet to on-balance sheet deposits [1] Group 2: Financing Structure - The lower-than-expected new loans and social financing indicate a changing financing structure influenced by various factors [1] - The transition of household deposits into stock market investments results in a transformation of M1 deposits into non-bank deposits within M2 [1]