9 月非农数据点评 迟来的指引，摇摆的降息 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 11 月 20 日，美国劳工部（BLS）补发 9 月非农就业报告。9 月新增非农就业人数 11.9 万，远高 于预期的 5.0 万，失业率小幅上行至 4.4%。 证券研究报告 | 2025年11月24日 评论： 图1：9 月非农数据总览 | | | | | 2025年9月 非农数据总览表 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, supply has not yet increased significantly, so short - term bearish sentiment on oil prices should be cautious. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see to test OPEC's export price - support intention [2] - For methanol, with rising domestic production and high imports, supply pressure increases. Demand is weak, leading to high enterprise and port inventories. The weak reality remains unchanged, and the high - inventory problem of the 01 contract may further suppress the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - For urea, prices are consolidating at a low level with low volatility. The fundamentals lack drivers, and supply and demand are relatively loose. There is limited upward momentum, but the downside space is also limited at current low prices. It is advisable to wait and see [5] - For rubber, prices are rebounding as expected. Set stop - losses and conduct short - term long trades on pullbacks. Partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11] - For PVC, the supply is strong and demand is weak, with poor export prospects. There is continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are falling, while styrene futures prices are rising. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. Styrene prices may stop falling in the short term due to high - level inventory reduction [16] - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the seasonal peak season, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [19] - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22] - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory increase in November, with prices mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There may be opportunities for valuation increases in the medium term [25] - For PTA, continuous inventory accumulation is expected in November, and processing fees are under pressure. There may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [28] - For ethylene glycol, there is expected to be continuous inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [30] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed up 0.10 yuan/barrel, a 0.02% increase, at 460.60 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG gasoline inventory decreased by 0.56 million barrels to 12.78 million barrels, a 4.17% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 9.22 million barrels, an 8.14% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.30 million barrels to 24.48 million barrels, a 1.21% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.16 million barrels to 46.48 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease [5][6] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, remained stable in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 15 in southern Shandong. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 2112 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 15. The 1 - 5 spread remained stable at - 101 [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased by 30, 30, and 20 respectively. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 23 yuan to 1667 yuan, with a basis of - 67. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 16 to - 67 due to news of new export quotas [4] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. The expected resolution of the US government shutdown and the expected easing of Fed funds are macro - bullish factors. As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.54%, up 0.21 percentage points from last week and 5.35 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.45%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 4.37 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire exports slowed down. As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 1.6% [9][10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 19 yuan to 4611 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 91 (+19) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 304 (-1) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 80.8%, up 2.5%; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 81.2%, up 3.8%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 79.7%, down 0.5%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.6%, down 0.9%. Factory inventory was 33.5 tons (-0.3), and social inventory was 104 tons (+1.2) [11] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract was 5422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton; the basis was - 112 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 24 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the active contract was 6317 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton; the basis was 33 yuan/ton, a weakening of 17 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 88.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 471.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spread between EB continuous 1 and continuous 2 was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 66.94%, up 0.22%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.93 tons, a decrease of 1.37 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of PS was 53.50%, up 1.50%; the operating rate of EPS was 53.95%, down 8.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.60%, down 0.50% [15] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 22 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.43%, down 0.31%. The production enterprise inventory was 49.02 tons, an increase of 7.42 tons; the trader inventory was 5.01 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.85%, down 0.52%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan/ton, an expansion of 2 yuan/ton [18] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis was 46 yuan/ton, a weakening of 13 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.94%, down 0.61%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.99 tons, an increase of 0.48 tons; the trader inventory was 22.86 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons; the port inventory was 6.46 tons, a decrease of 0.07 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.14%, up 0.52%. The LL - PP spread was 338 yuan/ton, an expansion of 4 yuan/ton [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6780 yuan; PX CFR decreased by 3 dollars to 823 dollars; the basis was - 61 yuan (+12); the 1 - 3 spread was 2 yuan (+6). The PX load in China was 89.8%, up 2.8%; the Asian load was 80.2%, up 2.1%. The FJDH plant in China and the FCFC plant in Taiwan restarted. The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, an increase of 10.8 tons month - on - month. The PXN was 250 dollars (+11), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 110 dollars (-2) [24] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan/ton to 4575 yuan. The basis was - 78 yuan (+2), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 76.4%, down 1.2%. The downstream load was 91.5%, down 0.2%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 31 was 220.7 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 53 yuan to 167 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 216 yuan [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract increased by 18 yuan to 3942 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 41 yuan to 4013 yuan. The basis was 70 yuan (-4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan (+3). The ethylene glycol load was 72.4%, down 3.8%; the load of synthetic gas production was 71.9%, down 11.5%; the load of ethylene production was 72.7%, up 0.7%. The import arrival forecast was 18.9 tons, and the East China departure on November 6 was 1.1 tons. The port inventory was 56.2 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 825 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 649 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 628 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 740 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines decreased to 540 yuan [29]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of -0.1%[8] - The core CPI rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%[11] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, contributing approximately -0.5 percentage points to the CPI, while energy prices fell by 2.4%, impacting the CPI by about -0.2 percentage points[11] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first rise in 2025[8] - The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, influenced by low base effects and "anti-involution" measures[11] - In October, 30 sub-industries saw PPI month-on-month declines, with 17 remaining unchanged from the previous month[11] Group 3: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to reach 2% year-on-year by year-end, while PPI is anticipated to turn positive, contingent on demand-side policy support[11] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an equivalent amount in government bond limits is expected to support short-term CPI and PPI recovery[11] - Domestic demand remains weak, as indicated by CPI being below 1% for 32 consecutive months and PPI being negative for 37 months[11]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to rally, with a target of 7100 by year-end, supported by a positive earnings season where 75% of companies beat EPS estimates, marking the broadest beat in four years [2][3] - Seasonality trends are anticipated to improve from November to December, potentially leading to a catch-up trade for lagging stocks [3] - The potential refund of tariffs if deemed illegal by the Supreme Court could enhance company margins, as companies may maintain higher prices while benefiting from reduced costs [3][4] Group 2: Economic Factors - Tax returns are projected to increase by $800 per person compared to the previous year, which could positively impact consumer spending [5] - The reopening of the government is seen as a potential positive catalyst for the equity market, as historical trends suggest it could remove overhangs for equities [6][7] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - The hyperscaler companies are facing challenges, particularly in the AI capital expenditure (capex) cycle, which is still in its early stages and may lead to reduced free cash flow [8][9] - The free cash flow conversion for these companies is expected to decline to 50%, down from 100%, indicating potential financial strain [9][10] - The multiplier effect of AI capex is considered smaller compared to traditional capex, suggesting that the economic benefits may not be as significant [11][12]

Commodity Market Overview - Soybean futures rallied over $11 per bushel, gaining 9.31% in October, forming a bullish key reversal on the monthly chart [1] - Corn futures increased by 3.85%, surpassing $4.30 per bushel, also forming a bullish key reversal [7] - Wheat futures rose 5.12%, moving from under $5 to over $5.30 per bushel, narrowly missing a bullish key reversal [8] Precious Metals Performance - Platinum declined by 1.89% in October, while palladium led with a 13.03% gain [3] - Gold and silver futures posted gains of 3.18% and 3.26% respectively, despite correcting from all-time highs of $4,398 and $53.765 per ounce [4][5] Other Commodities - FCOJ fell over 28%, and world sugar futures dropped more than 13% in October [6][13] - Copper recovered by 4.79%, while lumber futures fell by 8.84% due to elevated long-term interest rates [12] Energy Sector Insights - Natural gas futures were over $4.12 per MMBtu at the end of October, with January 2026 delivery prices settling at $4.369 per MMBtu [16] - U.S. natural gas inventories were 0.8% above last year's level and 4.6% over the five-year average [18] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. stock market continued to rally, but the ongoing government shutdown poses potential risks to the economy [20] - The dollar index rose by 2.24%, which may create mixed signals for commodity prices [14]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China experienced a decline in October, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in production and market demand, while the non-manufacturing sector showed slight improvement with a PMI of 50.1% [2][3][4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, a significant drop of 2.2 percentage points, marking the first contraction since April [3] - The new orders index decreased to 48.8%, reflecting a decline in market demand [3] - Seasonal factors, including the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival, contributed to the decline in manufacturing PMI, with historical data showing a pattern of decreases in October [3][4] - Despite the overall decline, certain industries such as agricultural processing, automotive, and aerospace maintained production and new orders indices above 52.0%, indicating robust activity [4][5] External Demand and Trade Impact - The new export orders index fell by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, highlighting the impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and Chinese exports [4] Structural Highlights in Manufacturing - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed resilience, with their respective PMIs at 50.5% and 50.2%, indicating continued expansion [5] - Large enterprises reported stable performance, with production and new orders indices remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1%, indicating a return to expansion, with significant growth in sectors related to consumer spending and infrastructure [6][7] - The service sector, particularly in transportation and hospitality, saw high activity levels, driven by holiday consumption and promotional events [6][7] - The construction sector experienced a temporary decline, but indicators suggest a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment due to recent policy measures [7] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - Recent fiscal policies, including the introduction of new financial tools and local government debt issuance, are expected to support infrastructure investment and stabilize economic activity [7][8] - The overall economic activity is anticipated to remain resilient, with macroeconomic policies expected to take effect and further consolidate the foundation for stable economic operation [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback, settling down nearly 6%, marking the worst day since April 2013, despite being up 56% year-to-date [1] - The gold miner ETF saw a decline of more than 9%, its worst performance since 2020, indicating a strong reaction to the gold price drop [1] - Analysts noted that the recent overbought conditions, with RSIs at historic levels above 90%, suggested that a correction was due [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is speculation that investors may be reallocating from gold to Bitcoin, although the overall sentiment remains that the gold market is not finished and will continue to perform positively in the coming months [3] - Major financial institutions like HSBC and Goldman Sachs maintain a bullish price target for gold, estimating it could reach between $4,600 and $5,000 by 2026 [4] - The seasonal trends suggest that November and December are typically positive months for equity markets, which may influence investor behavior towards gold and equities [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is suggested that maintaining a position in gold is prudent, while also considering allocations to other commodities like copper [6][7] - Silver is expected to follow a similar trajectory as gold, potentially experiencing even greater volatility, which aligns with historical patterns [8]

Export Performance - September exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding the Reuters consensus estimate of 6%[6] - The two-year average growth rate for September exports continued to decline to 5.3%[6] - Month-on-month growth for September exports was 2.1%, slightly below the 3% average from 2018 to 2023[6] Trade Dynamics - Exports to the US improved, with September exports valued at $34.31 billion, showing a month-on-month growth of 8.6% and a year-on-year decline of 27%[6] - Exports to Africa surged, with September exports reaching $22.37 billion, a month-on-month increase of 20.3% and a year-on-year growth of 56.4%[6] - Exports to the EU showed seasonal weakness, with September exports at $48.02 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 7.1% but a year-on-year growth of 14.2%[6] Product Categories - High-tech products, electromechanical products, and labor-intensive products saw year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 12.6%, and -4.1%, respectively[6] - Ship exports showed significant month-on-month increases, attributed to preemptive actions by domestic shipbuilders ahead of new US regulations[6] Import Trends - September imports rose by 7.4% year-on-year, significantly above the Reuters estimate of 1.5%[6] - Major commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and soybeans saw increased import volumes compared to the previous month[6] - The trade surplus narrowed to $90.45 billion due to strong import performance[6] Risks and Outlook - The impact of US tariff policies remains uncertain, with potential implications for China's exports[7] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations may lead to a significant easing of trade tensions at the upcoming APEC summit[6]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of grain and oil products in Qingdao is sufficient in the third quarter of 2025, with some prices experiencing slight declines while others, such as eggs and vegetables, have seen varying degrees of increases [1] Grain and Oil Prices - The average price of first-grade long-grain rice is 3.26 yuan per 500 grams, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter but down 2.11% year-on-year [2] - The average price of special flour is 2.37 yuan, down 1.67% quarter-on-quarter and 0.58% year-on-year [2] - The average price of 5-liter bottled peanut oil is 133.10 yuan per barrel, down 0.55% quarter-on-quarter and 2.06% year-on-year [2] - The average price of soybean oil is 59.43 yuan, down 0.37% quarter-on-quarter and 2.11% year-on-year [2] Pork Prices - The average price of live pigs is 7.09 yuan, down 3.70% quarter-on-quarter and 28.01% year-on-year [3] - The average price of pork belly is 15.42 yuan, down 1.06% quarter-on-quarter and 15.20% year-on-year [5] - The average price of lean pork is 15.68 yuan, down 1% quarter-on-quarter and 15.52% year-on-year [5] Egg Prices - The average price of eggs is 3.76 yuan, up 2.49% quarter-on-quarter but down 28.20% year-on-year [7] - The price fluctuations in eggs are influenced by seasonal demand and supply constraints due to high temperatures affecting production [8] Vegetable Prices - The average wholesale price of vegetables in three major markets is 2.47 yuan, up 11.26% quarter-on-quarter but down 11.79% year-on-year [12] - The average retail price of 19 vegetable varieties is 3.92 yuan, up 9.50% quarter-on-quarter but down 16.06% year-on-year [12] - The total supply of vegetables in the three major wholesale markets is 19,425 million kilograms, up 1.05% quarter-on-quarter but down 9.45% year-on-year [11]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a potential consolidation phase for regular gold prices while suggesting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2023. Gold Market Analysis - The Spider Gold ETF has shown a bullish breakout pattern, which historically leads to consolidation phases after such breakouts [2][3]. - The expectation is for gold prices to remain rangebound over the next year, indicating a pause in upward momentum [4]. Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin has exhibited a similar pattern of consolidation and breakout, with a developing bullish trend [5][6]. - Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to perform well in the fourth quarter, with a notable increase of 9% on average over the past decade [7]. Comparative Analysis - There has been a significant performance gap of nearly 20% between gold and Bitcoin, which has historically tended to close [9]. - As gold prices stabilize or decline, Bitcoin is expected to rally, particularly as the year progresses into the fourth quarter [10][11].