亚洲棕榈油价格飙升至两个月高点，产量下降需求增加，市场供需如何影响未来走势？季节性因素将如 何影响市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

报告日期：2025 年 6 月 [Table_main] 衍生品市场类模板 策_main] 衍生品市场类模板 略 报 告 欧线基础知识及行情分析 商 品 报告导读 期 货 — 专 题 报 告 本报告将聚焦于航运期货市场分析，从基础知识介绍，包括价格影响因素、 航运期货特点及应用场景，到当前关税扰动以及地缘政治不稳定因素影响 下当前行情分析以及合约操作建议。 投资要点 2025 年全年供需格局仍然偏过剩 由于疫情期间运力紧张导致船司在 2020-2021 年间下单大量集装箱船订单，多数 订单将会集中在 2024 年及 2025 年交付。2024 年为全球运力增速最高的一年，预 计 2025 年集装箱海运量增速将在 2.6%，低于航运增速的 5.3%。 美线抢运幅度对欧线影响有限 根据中美关税暂停后航司最新公告整理，6 月周均相比 5 月初的公告出现下修， 运力从 30.0 万 TEU 调整为 29.0 万 TEU。目前公告显示仅有一艘原本欧线上的船 只将在 6 月 5 日后调整至美线。目前美线运力转移并不明显，需关注后续运力调 整情况。当前仅有部分 6 月班次调整为待定。 季节性因素 06 及 08 合约为欧线 ...

能源化工日报 2025-06-25 2025/06/25 原油早评： 能源化工组 李 晶 首席分析师 从业资格号：F0283948 交易咨询号：Z0015498 0755-23375131 lijing@wkqh.cn 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 2.22 美元，跌幅 3.30%，报 65.01 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 2.83 美元，跌幅 4.01%，报 67.82 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 53.70 元，跌幅 9.35%， 报 520.9 元。 数据方面：富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉， 汽油库存去库 0.18 百万桶至 8.06 百万桶，环 比去库 2.23%；柴油库存累库 0.75 百万桶至 2.17 百万桶，环比累库 52.97%；燃料油库存去库 0.16 百万桶至 9.41 百万桶，环比去库 1.69%；总成品油累库 0.41 百万桶至 19.64 百万桶，环 比累库 2.11%。 张正华 高级分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 11 日辽宁现货 13.9-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 13.8-14.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 13.8-14 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 15-15.4 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳中有 涨。猪价连续下跌破 14 元/公斤后市场抗价惜售，且 6 月 11 日国家收储 1 万吨猪肉（此前是轮换），也提振市场情绪，支撑猪价。但 6 月生猪出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校放假，季节性需求淡季显 现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表现，供强需弱格局未改， 猪价上方仍承压，短期猪价维持震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和冻品 入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能繁、降体重、 不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月 缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增加态势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润，去化幅度有 限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍大，远期价格反弹承压。策略 上，盘面仍 ...

季节性因素叠加外部环境变化，制造业PMI降至收缩区间 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/4/30 4月PMI数据点评—— 目录 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 1、季节性因素叠加外部环境变化，制造业PMI降至收缩区间 2、非制造业保持平稳扩张 ➢ 中国4月官方制造业PMI49.0，预期49.8，前值50.5。 ➢ 中国4月非制造业PMI50.4，预期50.6，前值50.8。 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 1、季节性因素叠加外部环境变化，制造业PMI降至收缩区间 ➢制造业PMI重回临界水平以下。4月制造业PMI为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点，降幅较为明显并且重回收缩区间。对此可以从季节 性因素以及外部环境变化两个角度去理解。一方面，4月制造业PMI的边际下行符合季节性特征。PMI为环比性质指标，3月为制造业 旺季，会形成较高基数，因此4月往往会出现不同程度的向下调整。2016年至今4月制造业PMI环比均为负增。另一方面，1.5个百分 点的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，一句古老的市场箴言正笼罩在美股反弹势头之上："五月清仓，暂且离场"。这一谚 语是最为人熟知的市场趋势之一，数十年的历史表现为这一效应提供了支撑。 Bespoke投资集团的分析显示，一只成立于1993年、追踪标普500指数的基金，在5月至10月期间的累计 回报率为171%，而11月至次年4月的回报率则高达731%。这一规律在2023年11月至2024年10月期间依 然有效。 尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统不可预测的关税政策动摇了投资者对许多曾经可靠指标的信心，季节性因素仍 是投资者用以研判未来几周股市走势的众多参考因素之一。单从这句古老谚语来看，当前不宜追涨—— 标普500指数已从本月低点反弹12%，但今年以来仍累计下跌5.5% 。 Seven Report Research联合编辑泰勒·里奇表示："今年天平明显向'五月抛售者'倾斜。"他还补充道，标 普500指数下月面临再次大幅下跌的风险。 部分指标已释放买入信号，包括本月早些时候投资者信心骤降，以及标普500指数收于5500点上方。这 意味着该指数已收复从峰值到谷底跌幅的50%，一些图表分析师认为，这表明投资者已重新开始逢低买 入。 艰难开局年份 ...

在美股近期反弹之际，投资者面临一个古老但强大的魔咒："五月卖出，离场观望"。历史数据显示，美 股在5月-10月的累计回报率远低于冬春季节，这一季节性因素在特朗普关税政策的不确定性背景下尤为 值得关注。 "五月抛售"效应是金融市场中一个广为人知的现象，其长期的历史数据为其提供了有力的支撑。 Bespoke Investment Group 进行的一项分析显示，如果投资一只成立于1993年且跟踪标普500指数的基 金，那么在每年的5月至10月这段时间内，其累计回报率为171%；而在11月至次年4月的这段时间内， 累计回报率则高达731%。这种模式最近一次出现是在2023年11月至2024年10月期间。 更长期的数据分析更加惊人：根据《股票交易年鉴》(Stock Trader's Almanac)的分析，过去七十四年 中，在5月至10月期间投资标普500指数的累计回报率仅为35%，而在同年的另一半时间里，累计回报率 高达11,657%。 季节性数据在今年显得尤为重要。Sevens Report Research的联合编辑Tyler Richey表示："今年'五月卖 出'策略的天平已经倾斜，"并补充说标普500指数五 ...