Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Marley Caden alongside Sam Bodis in New York. Let's discuss the energy sector.Welcome in our next guest, Carly Garner, [music] senior commodity strategist and broker at D Carly Trading. Carly, thanks for being with us today. Seeing a big jump in oil prices.You know, we're up more than 7% in crude, more than seven and a half in Brent today. You know, what are some of your thoughts on this move we're seeing. Is it justified. Is it an overreaction.Well, to be honest, I thin ...

Employment Data - The jobs report showed non-farm payrolls at 130,000, significantly higher than the expected 66,000, indicating stronger job growth than anticipated [3][4] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, better than the expected 4.4%, suggesting a positive trend in the labor market [4][13] - January is typically a volatile month for job reports, and the current data reflects this volatility [3] Methodology and Adjustments - There have been significant adjustments to the birth-death model, which accounts for new businesses and jobs created versus those that are eliminated [5][6] - The updated model indicates a negative print, suggesting more businesses are closing than opening, which may mask underlying weaknesses in certain sectors outside of healthcare [6] Market Reactions - Initial market reactions included a rise in yields and a potential backing away from rate cut expectations, with the market pricing in a 25 basis point cut around July [7][12] - The 10-year Treasury yield has seen fluctuations, moving down after hitting a resistance level of 4.3%, indicating market concerns about job growth and inflation [11][12] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector continues to show strength amidst the overall job market data, contrasting with weaknesses in other sectors [6][13] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and expectations regarding OPEC's production levels, with potential bullish movements anticipated in the coming months [16][19]

Group 1: Second-hand Housing Market - From January 1 to February 7, 2026, second-hand housing sales in 22 cities decreased by 19.9% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a decline of 14.4%[10] - After adjusting for the lunar calendar, national and first-tier second-hand housing sales showed a year-on-year decline of -16% and -26.8%, respectively, although this is an improvement from December 2025's -27.9% and -37.4%[10] - The average price of second-hand homes in January 2026 decreased by 0.85% month-on-month, a slight improvement from December's 0.97%[14] - The total number of second-hand homes listed in January 2026 was 2.56 million, a decrease from December 2025, consistent with seasonal trends[22] Group 2: New Housing Market - New housing sales in 67 cities from January 1 to February 7, 2026, decreased by 7.2% year-on-year, with a lunar calendar-adjusted decline of -44.7%[27] - The average price of new residential properties in January 2026 was 17,000 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.18%[32] - The inventory of unsold residential properties stood at 400 million square meters as of December 2025, with a sales cycle extending from 5.8 months to 6.6 months due to declining sales[33] - The total inventory, including land and pre-sold properties, was 5.1 billion square meters, with the overall sales cycle increasing from 78 months to 84 months[33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC futures market is in a state of continuous game regarding future shipping company resumptions. The EC futures market maintains an overall volatile trend, influenced by factors such as shipping company resumptions, geopolitical situations, and seasonal patterns [6][7]. - The spot market is in a downward trend, with freight rates expected to remain stable around the Spring Festival and decline during the post - Spring Festival off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption plans of shipping companies in the Red Sea [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Data** - Various EC futures contracts show different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, EC2604 closed at 1,247.6 points on February 4, up 0.78% from the previous day [4]. - The month - spread structure of futures contracts also shows different price differences and changes [4]. - **Container Freight Rates** - Most container freight rates are showing a downward trend. For example, the SCFIS European Line index was 1,792.14 points, down 3.61% month - on - month and 21.20% year - on - year [4]. - **Fuel Costs** - WTI and Brent crude oil prices show different degrees of month - on - month increases and year - on - year decreases [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis** - MSK announced the resumption of the ME11 route in February, but the geopolitical situation may offset some of the resumption expectations. The market is continuously gaming the future resumptions of shipping companies [6]. - The spot market is in a downward trend, with demand peaking and then declining, and supply increasing in March. Geopolitical situations are volatile, and weather conditions affect port operations [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral trading: Temporarily hold off on trading due to the suppression of far - month contracts by resumption progress and the continued game of near - month contracts on geopolitical factors [9]. - Arbitrage trading: After taking profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high prices, temporarily hold off on trading and wait for opportunities to roll over at low prices [10]. 3.3 Industry News - On February 3, 2026, Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced the resumption of the ME11/IMX India - Mediterranean route via the Suez Canal, and the resumptions of the AE12/SE1 and AE15/SE3 routes are under coordination [11]. - The Italian dockworkers' union announced a 24 - hour general strike on February 6, 2026, covering all ports [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the trends of container freight indices and prices, such as the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, and SCFI comprehensive index [12][19][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own characteristics and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be volatile and bullish, some are volatile and bearish, and some are in a state of shock [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Market Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: The upward trend of oils and fats continues. Due to the warm macro - environment, positive mid - term fundamental sentiment, and continuous capital inflows, oils and fats futures continued to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after corrections and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all volatile and bullish [6][7]. - **Protein Meal**: The reduction of short positions in double meals pushed up the market. At the end of the stocking period, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. Overseas soybean supply is expected to increase, while domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and downstream stocking is coming to an end. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market stopped falling and fluctuated. Downstream stocking is approaching the end, and the market is in a tight balance. The short - term market has a ceiling and a floor, with limited upward momentum [10][11]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand are loose, and hog prices are weak. In the short term, there is pressure from concentrated supply before the Spring Festival; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is volatile and bearish [12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: It strongly broke through the previous high, and the rubber price continued to rise. It is mainly driven by the macro - environment, with no significant change in fundamentals. The outlook is that the fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is volatile and bullish [1][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous driving force has eased. The BR market mainly followed the rise of natural rubber, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The outlook is that it is volatile and bullish in the medium term after short - term adjustment [17][18]. - **Cotton**: The position decreased, but the price was firm. The fundamentals have not changed much recently, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium and long term, while the short - term upward height may be limited [18]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure. The global raw sugar market in the 2025/26 crushing season is likely to have a supply surplus, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market is in a horizontal fluctuation. The demand for pulp is decreasing seasonally, and there are more bearish factors. The outlook is volatile and bearish [20][21]. - **Double - offset Paper**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The market supply pressure exists, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [22][23]. - **Logs**: The external market price is expected to rise, and logs are volatile and bullish. There are marginal positive drivers in the log market, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [25]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index showed an upward trend on January 29, 2026. The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and the agricultural product index all had positive growth rates [186][187].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, with the expected production increase in Venezuela and the normalization of low - intensity frictions between the US and Iran, there is a bottom support for oil prices. It is cost - effective to go long when the price is around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and its future pattern will improve marginally. Although there is short - term downward pressure, it is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] - For rubber, with the overall rise in commodities, but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [10][13] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [15][17] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [19][20] - For polyethylene, the futures price has risen. The price of crude oil may have bottomed out, and the downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [22][23] - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The supply - surplus situation may ease, and it is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [24][26] - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [27][28] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [29][32] - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [33][34] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 17.90 yuan/barrel, a 4.07% increase, closing at 457.30 yuan/barrel; related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 178.00 yuan/ton, a 6.81% increase, closing at 2791.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 108.00 yuan/ton, a 3.49% increase, closing at 3206.00 yuan/ton. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 11.48 million barrels, a 2.00% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 15.41 million barrels, a 2.84% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.11 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels to 5.92 million barrels, a 4.36% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.21 million barrels to 7.83 million barrels, a 2.79% increase; the overall refined oil inventory increased by 0.51 million barrels to 47.76 million barrels, a 1.08% increase [2][3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase gradually. The situation between the US and Iran will enter a state of low - intensity friction normalization. There is a bottom support for oil prices, and it is cost - effective to go long around the shale oil break - even point in the medium - to - long term [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The spot price in Jiangsu changed by 25 yuan/ton, in Lunan by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 77.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2347 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 148 yuan [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation is low, and the future pattern will improve marginally. It is feasible to go long at low prices due to geopolitical expectations in Iran [5] Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 3 yuan/ton, closing at 1791 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 51 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities and chemicals rose overall, and rubber prices rebounded. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to macro funds' large - scale allocation of chemical longs, the expected increase in naphtha and butadiene costs due to the naphtha consumption tax policy, and the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The port inventory decreased significantly. The long and short sides have different views on natural rubber. The long side believes that rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and there is an expected improvement in demand in China; the short side believes that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, 2.30 percentage points higher than last week and 2.78 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, 6.35 percentage points higher than last week and 4.09 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous period [10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the overall rise in commodities but the seasonal weakness of rubber, it is recommended to trade with a neutral mindset, short - term trading on the disk. Short - sell if RU2605 falls below 16000, and partially build a position for the strategy of buying NR main contract and short - selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 72 yuan, closing at 4921 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4750 (+100) yuan/ton, the basis was - 209 (+62) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2475 (- 25) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 785 (- 35) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (- 5) dollars/ton, and the price of caustic soda was 605 (- 17) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, unchanged from the previous period; the ethylene method was 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor. In the short term, it is supported by electricity price expectations, export rush, and strong commodity sentiment. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6010 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 6078 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan increase; the basis of pure benzene was - 68 yuan/ton, a 23 - yuan increase. The spot price of styrene was 7850 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan increase; the closing price of the active contract was 7702 yuan/ton, a 6 - yuan decrease; the basis was 148 yuan/ton, a 156 - yuan increase. The BZN spread was 194.75 yuan/ton, a 9.75 - yuan increase; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was 119.6 yuan/ton, a 20.55 - yuan decrease; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decrease; the inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the operating rate of PS was 57.30%, a 0.10% decrease, the operating rate of EPS was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the operating rate of ABS was 66.80%, a 3.00% decrease [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and it is advisable to gradually take profits [20] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6935 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6850 yuan/ton, a 75 - yuan increase; the basis was - 85 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 27 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan decrease [22] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The downward valuation space of PE remains. It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand is weakening [23] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6737 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan increase; the spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan increase; the basis was - 137 yuan/ton, a 56 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 198 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 41 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan decrease [24][25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus situation may ease. In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [26] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 118 yuan, closing at 7508 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 7 dollars, closing at 930 dollars. The basis was - 35 yuan (+34), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan (+10). The operating rate in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 81%, a 0.4% increase. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS plant restarted overseas. The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. In the first and middle of January, South Korea's PX exports to China were 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6 tons. The PXN was 358 dollars (+18), the South Korean PX - MX was 151 dollars (+5), and the naphtha crack spread was 86 dollars (- 14) [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. In the medium term, there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil [28] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 5448 yuan. The East China spot price rose 65 yuan, closing at 5350 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 30 yuan (- 10). The PTA operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 tons, a 4 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 34 yuan to 439 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 19 yuan to 504 yuan [29] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the medium term [30][32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 150 yuan, closing at 3997 yuan. The East China spot price rose 89 yuan, closing at 3887 yuan. The basis was - 120 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 97 yuan (- 14). The supply - side operating rate was 73%, a 1.4% decrease; among them, the synthetic gas - based operating rate was 79.4%, a 0.8% decrease; the ethylene - based operating rate was 69.5%, a 1.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 tons, and the East China departure volume from January 23 - 25 was 2 tons. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based profit was - 869 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 606 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 352 yuan. The price of ethylene fell to 705 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal fines fell to 530 yuan [33] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry is facing high - inventory and high - production pressure. The valuation needs to be compressed in the medium term, and significant production cuts are needed to improve the supply - demand pattern [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Supply**: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - **Demand**: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - **Inventory**: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Bearish rebound [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PP**: Bearish rebound [1] - **PVC**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Range - bound [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously avoid shorting [2][3] - **Urea**: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Bearish continuation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Extreme cold weather drives up gas prices, leading to an oil price rebound. However, there is a supply - surplus situation in the off - season, and geopolitical uncertainties remain [1][8][9]. - **LPG**: Follows the cost - end oil price. In the medium - to - long - term, the oil price is under pressure, and the LPG price has room for compression [1][14][15]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but the spot price has not stopped falling. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost in the short term [1][19]. - **PP**: Follows the cost to rebound in the short term. The fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and the short - term supply pressure eases [1][23]. - **PVC**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to weaken [1][26]. - **PX/PTA**: Valuation is not low, with supply and demand in a tight balance. It is expected to perform well, but there are risks of negative feedback from the demand side and excessive oil price drops before the Spring Festival [2][28]. - **MEG**: Valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. The supply increases, and the demand weakens seasonally. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2][31][32]. - **Methanol**: The valuation is not low, and the supply - demand situation is slightly loose. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations, and the rebound height may be limited [2][35][37]. - **Urea**: The absolute valuation is not low. The comprehensive profit is good, and the supply load is rising. The demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season [3][39][41]. - **Natural Gas**: Cold air drives up gas prices, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the upward space of gas prices may be limited [6][45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material end provides support, and the price remains stable. However, there are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials and the compression space for spreads [6][49][50]. - **Glass**: The supply and demand are both weak. In the absence of further cold - repair implementation, it should be treated bearishly [6][54]. - **Soda Ash**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, and the demand support is insufficient. It should be treated bearishly before further intensification of maintenance [6][58]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose by 0.43%, Brent fell by 0.60%, and the domestic SC rose by 0.59% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up gas prices, pushing up oil prices. The Middle - East geopolitical situation eases but remains uncertain. There is a supply surplus in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment, and the SC should be monitored in the range of [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On January 21, the PG main contract closed at 4064 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month [13]. - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows the cost - end oil price, which is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is stable, and the downstream chemical demand is resilient [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the LPG price has compression space. The PG should be monitored in the range of [3050 - 3150] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract's related data shows certain price and volume changes [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, the linear production schedule increases, but the spot price has not stopped falling. The terminal replenishment is insufficient, and it is expected to follow the cost fluctuation [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6600 - 6800] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [21]. - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds with the cost in the short term. The supply and demand are both weak, and the PDH profit is compressed, increasing the maintenance expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [6450 - 6600] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The liquid caustic soda price drops, and the cost support of marginal devices improves. There is a short - term export rush, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [4650 - 4850] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply is affected by device maintenance, the downstream demand weakens seasonally, and the cost end is in a weak balance [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract, with the TA05 monitored in the range of [5130 - 5220] [29]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is low, the domestic supply load increases, the demand weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulates [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds, with the EG05 monitored in the range of [3680 - 3760] [32]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent market - review section. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the domestic and overseas device loads decline, the supply pressure eases, and the demand weakens slightly [35][36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply pressure eases in January, and the demand is suppressed by weak olefin demand. The MA05 should be monitored in the range of [2200 - 2250] [37]. Urea - **Market Review**: The UR05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation is not low, the supply load rises, the demand is strong in the short term but may weaken during the holiday season, and the inventory is still relatively high [39][40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The winter - storage benefit is limited, the supply pressure is expected to increase, and the UR05 should be monitored in the range of [1760 - 1790] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On January 20, the NG main contract closed at 3.183 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 17.80% month - on - month [44]. - **Basic Logic**: Cold air drives up demand and gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory situation is known [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the winter consumption season, the demand supports the gas price, but the upward space may be limited. The NG should be monitored in the range of [4.866 - 5.496] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On January 21, the BU main contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 0.57% month - on - month [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The raw material end provides support, the cost profit declines, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory increases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spread valuation returns to normal but still has compression space. There are uncertainties in the supply of raw materials. The BU should be monitored in the range of [3150 - 3250] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [52]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and demand are both weak, the demand is in the off - season, and the weak demand suppresses the upward space [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1030 - 1080] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract's related data shows price and volume changes [56]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream production enterprises maintain high - level operation, the demand support from float glass is insufficient, and the supply is under pressure [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [1150 - 1200] [58].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, including their supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. It offers trading suggestions for some commodities based on these analyses [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries by Commodity 3.1. Energy Crude Oil - OPEC's December commercial inventory in OECD increased by 4 million barrels to 2.84 billion barrels. The expected demand for OPEC crude in 2026 remains at 43 million barrels per day, an increase of 600,000 barrels per day compared to 2025. US refined oil demand in the four - week period ending January 9 was 1.1% lower than the same period last year. With the reduced expectation of US strikes on Iran, the oil price dropped significantly. The oil market still faces oversupply pressure, and the price is expected to be short - sold in the short term [5]. Natural Gas - Not covered in the report. Coal - For coking coal, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 88.5%, a 3.1% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal is 1.978 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons. The raw coal inventory is 5.499 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons. After last week's rebound, the coking coal futures have entered a volatile pattern this week. Without policy intervention, the coal price may remain low before the Spring Festival [1]. 3.2. Metals Iron Ore - From January 5 to January 11, the global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a decrease of 328,000 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.064 million tons, a decrease of 1.364 million tons. The overseas iron ore shipment volume has slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited growth in overseas shipments in the first quarter. The port inventory is under pressure to increase, but the short - term increase in iron water production and steel mills' restocking provide some support for the ore price [3]. Steel - As of the week of January 15, the weekly output of rebar was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 52,700 tons to 1.4266 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 52,300 tons to 2.9541 million tons. The apparent demand increased by 153,800 tons to 1.9034 million tons. With the approaching cold air, the demand is expected to weaken, but the steel price may continue to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - economic factors and high costs [4]. Aluminum - Starting from April 1, 2026, China will cancel the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products. In the short term, the policy has boosted the aluminum price, but in the long term, it may suppress aluminum demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [9]. Gold - Trump has no plan to fire Powell, and concerns about the Fed's independence may weaken. With strong US economic data, the short - term demand for interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward momentum of precious metals has weakened [10]. Silver - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, the lowest since November last year. The short - term urgency for interest rate cuts has decreased. Industrial demand supports silver, but the price increase is limited in the short term [1]. 3.3. Chemicals PTA - The social inventory of PTA is 2.8674 million tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.76%. The polyester load is slowly decreasing, and the sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed market sentiment. PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31%. The port inventory decreased by 101,900 tons to 1.4353 million tons. The methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6494 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.19%, a decrease of 0.42%. The commercial inventory decreased by 48,000 tons to 695,500 tons. Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material glue is 58.2 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price is 52.3 Thai baht/kg. The domestic rubber production area has stopped harvesting, and the raw material price in Southeast Asia is firm. The social inventory of natural rubber in China has seasonally increased to a neutral level. It is recommended to short - sell or wait and see in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - From January 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 18.64% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia has lowered the reference price and tariffs, but strong export data and Indonesia's signal of long - term supply tightening have led to a market expectation of tightening supply. It is recommended to trade in a range in the short term [8]. 3.4. Agriculture Soybean Meal - On January 15, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton. The market has demand, but the willingness to chase high - priced soybeans is weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and the supply is expected to be loose in the first quarter. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short term [7]. Corn - Not covered in the report. Wheat - Not covered in the report. Livestock - On January 15, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.3%. The pig price is expected to fluctuate after a short - term increase. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume of farmers and the reduction of breeding sows [8]. 3.5. Others Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank has implemented measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering the rediscount and re - loan interest rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing the re - loan quota for agriculture and small businesses by 50 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to be more volatile, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [10]. Futures - Not covered comprehensively. Only short - term evaluations of various commodity futures are provided in the report.

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 in the U.S. was +0.31%, in line with expectations, while core CPI was +0.24%, below the expected +0.30%[3] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 2.68%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.64%, slightly below the expected 2.70%[3] - The weaker-than-expected core CPI was primarily influenced by declines in used car prices, a price war among telecom companies, and seasonal factors, which are expected to have a short-term impact[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - For Q1 2026, there are upward risks to U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data due to fiscal and monetary impulses, as well as seasonal factors[2] - The fiscal impulse for Q1 2026 is estimated to boost U.S. GDP by 2.79%, largely due to the end of government shutdowns[2] - Cumulative interest rate cuts of 75 basis points since September 2025 are expected to stimulate the economy in Q1 2026[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the weaker core CPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, leading to rises in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - However, asset prices later partially retraced the volatility caused by the monetary easing trades[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[4]