百亿级私募再扩容 资金借基入市步伐加快 ◎记者 马嘉悦 增量资金正在加速入市。私募排排网最新统计数据显示，截至1月23日，今年以来已有7家私募新进或重 返百亿梯队，百亿级私募再度扩容。与此同时，上海证券报记者近日采访获悉，开年以来多家私募发行 火热，尤其是多头策略产品备受资金青睐。在业内人士看来，在无风险收益率下行，资本市场结构性机 会涌现的背景下，机构和居民资产将加速向权益资产或者含权类产品"搬家"，从而对国内市场的表现构 成有力支撑。 百亿梯队持续扩容 私募排排网最新统计数据显示，截至2026年1月23日，百亿级私募数量已达116家，较2025年末增加3 家。具体来看，今年以来有7家私募新进或重返百亿梯队，有4家则退出头部行列。 ■私募新观察 "开年以来，上证指数逐步站稳4100点重要关口，权益类资产赚钱效应持续显现，因此私募发行市场也 继续活跃，尤其是多头策略产品备受资金青睐，不少头部私募目前募资量超过了5亿元。"沪上一位私募 研究员在接受记者采访时直言，基金业绩的震荡上行和增量资金的加速入场，是百亿级私募持续扩容的 重要原因。 一位百亿级量化私募人士也告诉记者，2026年开年以来，头部私募积极发力"开 ...

报告导读： 零售业务和自营业务是全年业绩增长的核心增量，板块受益配置力量与业绩弹 性共振，更看好优质头部及财富管理特色标的。 预计交投活跃叠加基数效应下，上市券商业绩显著改善，归母净利润同比 +46.4% 。 我们预计 42 家上市券商 2025 年调整后营业收入（营业收入 - 其他 业务成本）同比提升 34.1% 至 5657 亿元，归母净利润同比提升 46.4% 至 2164 亿元，其中 Q4 单季利润 473 亿元，同比 +8%/ 环比 -27% 。 交投活跃推动市场成交额及两融余额高增，驱动零售业务高增，叠加自营业务修复，是券商业绩增长的主要支撑。 从上市券商 2025 年各项业务收入对营收 增量贡献度看，我们预计经纪及信用业务合计贡献 50.4% ，投资业务贡献 45.5% 。 1 ）零售业务方面，全年日均股基成交额达 20576 亿元，同比提升 70% ，日均两融余额达 20793 万亿元，同比提升 33% ，我们预计经纪业务净收入、利息净收入分别同比增长 49% 、 57% ； 2 ）自营业务方面，受益 权益市场提振及债市相对平稳，预计自营收益率延续此前修复趋势，驱动全年自营收入增长； 3 ）我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending maturity of a significant amount of household savings deposits in China, which could impact market supply and demand dynamics in 2026, amidst a changing macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Scale - The maturity of household savings deposits is expected to reach between 30 trillion to 60 trillion yuan in 2026, with estimates varying among institutions [1][3][5] - The total amount of domestic RMB deposits in financial institutions was approximately 327 trillion yuan as of November 2025, with household time deposits accounting for 121 trillion yuan [3] - A notable decline in the growth of household time deposits was observed, with an increase of only 11.03 trillion yuan in 2025, the lowest since 2022 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The expectation of a "deposit migration" process has begun, with significant funds potentially flowing into other wealth management assets as deposit rates decline [2][8] - Various brokerages predict a peak in deposit maturities in 2026, particularly for three-year time deposits initiated in 2023, with estimates suggesting a maturity volume of 38 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overall trend indicates that even a small percentage of funds migrating from deposits could represent a substantial amount due to the large base of total deposits [13] Group 3: Alternative Investment Products - Financial products such as wealth management, insurance, and funds are becoming more common alternatives to traditional deposits, with insurance products showing strong appeal due to their higher yields compared to bank deposits [10][11] - The insurance sector is expected to attract significant funds as it offers stable returns and safety, especially as traditional deposit rates decline [10] - Wealth management products are projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan under conservative scenarios in 2026 [9] Group 4: Stock Market Implications - The A-share market has shown signs of increased activity, with a record number of new accounts opened in 2025, indicating potential interest in stock investments [12] - Despite skepticism about a direct correlation between deposit maturity and stock market inflows, the sheer volume of deposits suggests that even minor reallocations could lead to significant capital entering the market [13][14] - Some analysts believe that the current environment may lead to a greater willingness among middle-income groups to invest in the stock market, influenced by positive market sentiment [14]

科技股成为推动A股本轮行情的结构性的支柱力量。从行业来看，2025年8月电子行业市值首次超过银 行业，成为股票市场第一大行业。市场整体"含科量"超过25%，从全年涨幅看，创业板指上涨49.57%， 科创50上涨35.92%，北证50上涨38.81%，均高于上证指数、深证成指。2026年元旦假期以来连续三个 交易日的上涨，也主要是由科技股推动。2026年，随着中国企业在半导体、创新药等领域以及其他新兴 产业的快速发展，科技类上市公司将继续成为A股上涨行情的内在强大驱动力。 1月7日，A股三大指数再度集体上涨。截至1月7日收盘，上证指数收涨0.05%，报4085.77点，盘中一度 触及4098.78点，达到2015年以来的新高，意味着A股上涨行情从2025年向2026年顺利延续。 此轮上涨行情起于2024年9月底中央出台的一系列增量政策提振市场信心，随后的2025年春 节，"DeepSeek时刻"点燃了A股行情，全球投资者开始关注到中国在科技领域发展的超预期发展，从而 推动了中国资产重估。 更为重要的是，政策红利与科技创新产生的叠加效应。政策更加有力地支持了高新技术企业上市，为发 展新质生产力提供全链条的金融服务 ...

Core Insights - The new fund issuance market is experiencing significant growth, with many funds ending their fundraising early and 20 funds being fully subscribed within a single day [1] Fund Issuance Trends - Since September, several funds have completed their fundraising ahead of schedule, indicating a strong demand in the market [1] - The Huatai-PineBridge Yingtai Stable 3-Month Holding Period Mixed FOF Fund, which started issuing on October 23, saw subscription funds exceed the upper limit of 5 billion yuan on its first day [1] - The China Europe Value Navigation Mixed Fund also announced the completion of its fundraising in one day, with a total issuance scale of 1.97 billion yuan [1] - Other funds, such as the Huashang Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Return Mixed Fund and the Bodao Huihong Value Growth Mixed Fund, also reported first-day subscription funds surpassing the upper limit of 1 billion yuan [1] Market Sentiment - Industry experts note a significant recovery in the issuance of equity funds, driven by a positive market outlook and the profitability of equity funds [1] - The increasing market enthusiasm is contributing to a cyclical pattern where "market recovery leads to capital inflow and product popularity" [1]

Core Insights - A significant influx of capital into the market through ETFs was observed after the National Day holiday, with a total net subscription of 314.88 billion yuan on October 10 and 246.14 billion yuan on October 13, amounting to over 56 billion yuan in just two trading days [1] Fund Flow Analysis - Multiple broad-based ETFs attracted substantial investments, with the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF seeing a net subscription of 21.44 billion yuan [1] - Several industry-themed ETFs also experienced strong capital inflows, notably the Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF, which had a net subscription of 22.71 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - Various types of funds are entering the market, with insurance increasing stock allocation and public fund issuance/net subscriptions showing signs of recovery. The trend of residents "moving deposits" may have just begun [1][14] - The A-share liquidity index has shown a rapid increase, correlating highly with the median rise of brokerage stocks. Historical data indicates that significant increases in the liquidity index often precede or coincide with strong performance in brokerage stocks [2][41] - The brokerage industry is expected to achieve a profit growth rate of approximately 48% in the first half of 2025, with specific recommendations for undervalued and high ROE brokerage firms [3][48] Summary by Sections Current Fund Inflows - Since September 24, 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged various funds to enter the market, particularly focusing on long-term capital [14][15] - Insurance funds have shown stable premium growth, with stock allocation increasing to 8.5% as of Q2 2025, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21][1] - Public funds are experiencing a recovery in both issuance and net subscriptions, with a notable increase in active equity fund subscriptions [23][1] - A new cycle of residents "moving deposits" has begun, with the total market capitalization to resident deposits ratio at a low of 0.59, indicating potential for further inflows [26][1] Market Liquidity and Brokerage Stocks - The average daily trading volume and margin financing balance have reached historically high levels, indicating improved market liquidity [34][41] - The maximum turnover rate of the Wind All A index has historically aligned with peaks in brokerage stock performance, suggesting a potential indicator for market tops [35][41] - The A-share liquidity index has shown significant increases during previous bullish phases, with a 74% rise in brokerage stocks since the market transition on July 10, 2024 [2][41] Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to see a profit growth of around 48% in 2025, with specific recommendations for leading brokerage firms that are undervalued and have high ROE [3][48] - The report suggests focusing on firms like Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others that are expected to benefit from market conditions and potential mergers [3][48] - The report highlights a calendar effect where brokerage stocks typically exhibit excess returns from July to November, influenced by policy discussions and financial performance reviews [52][41]

Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is experiencing mixed performance, with significant growth in the ETF sector, particularly the broker ETF, which has seen substantial inflows and a notable increase in net asset value and share count [1][2][6]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of September 1, the broker ETF has achieved a net value increase of 61.10% over the past year [2]. - The broker ETF's latest scale reached 31.265 billion, marking a one-year high, and its share count reached 49.801 billion, also a one-year high [1]. - The ETF has seen a daily average net inflow of 248 million over the past three days, with a peak single-day inflow of 462 million [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Major brokerage firms have outperformed the industry average in profit growth, with top firms showing a net profit growth rate of 37% for the first half of the year, surpassing the overall growth rate of 31% for listed brokerages [2]. - The market has seen a significant increase in daily trading volume and margin financing balances since July, enhancing the profitability outlook for the year [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest focusing on high-quality brokerages with valuations significantly below the average, as well as those with strong performance potential among smaller firms [2]. - The broker ETF provides an efficient investment tool that encompasses both leading brokerages and smaller firms with high growth potential, with nearly 60% of its holdings concentrated in the top ten brokerages [6].

Group 1 - The company's performance growth in 25H1 is driven by investment performance, while asset sales have led to a decline in asset management business [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 8.85 yuan, projecting 2025H1 revenue and net profit of 5.404 billion and 1.33 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 0.24% and 41.24% [2] - The company's investment business net income increased by 48.6% year-on-year to 1.767 billion yuan, contributing 47.79% to adjusted revenue growth [2] Group 2 - The company is entering a new phase of high-quality development, with opportunities arising from the reallocation of assets in both institutional and retail sectors due to changes in equity and interest rate markets [3] - The appointment of former Huafu Securities Chairman Su Junliang as Chairman of the company is expected to lead to multiple initiatives aimed at enhancing comprehensive value across regional platforms [3] - The active participation of retail funds in the market is anticipated to further enhance the company's valuation levels [3] Group 3 - Catalysts for growth include sustained activity and favorable trends in the equity market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market demonstrated strong resilience last week, remaining unaffected by external disturbances, indicating its independence from overseas market fluctuations [1] Market Performance - The A-share market continued to rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the current market cycle, closing at its highest point of the year on Friday [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index accelerated its recovery, successfully surpassing the high point from the fourth quarter of last year [1] - Average daily trading volume exceeded 25 billion yuan for two consecutive weeks, indicating significant market activity [1] Investment Trends - The main market focus was on the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and consumer sectors, with technology stocks leading in gains [1] - The low interest rate environment has prompted a gradual shift of deposit funds towards equity assets, contributing to the market's rebound [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 2021 market high, with its focus continuing to shift upward [1] - The index broke through the upper boundary of a weekly large box pattern earlier this month, which has now turned from a resistance level into a support level [1] - The market is currently in a process of upward movement within this box pattern [1]