证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 策略周报 杠杆资金和外资流出额增加——2 月第 1 周立体投资策略周报 核心结论：①2 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流出 499 亿元，前一周流出 1512 亿元。②短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中高位，长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来 中低位。③从行业角度看，以成交额占比为例，过去一周通信、国防军工、 半导体等热度较高。 2 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流出 499 亿元，前一周流出 1512 亿元。资金 流入方面，融资余额减少 516 亿元，公募基金发行增加 269 亿元，ETF 净申 购 32 亿元，北上资金估算净流出 82 亿元；资金流出方面，IPO 融资规模 18 亿元，产业资本净减持 67 亿元，交易费用 118 亿元。 短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中高位。短期情绪指标主要看换手率和融资交 易占比，最近一周换手率（年化）为 497%，当前处在历史上由低到高 83%的 分位；最近一周融资交易占比为 9.21%，当前处在历史上由低到高 63%的分 位。 长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中低位。长期情绪指标主要看大类资产比价， 一看价格对比，最近一周 A 股风险溢 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月09日 策略周报 杠杆资金和外资流出额增加——2 月第 1 周立体投资策略周报 核心结论：①2 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流出 499 亿元，前一周流出 1512 亿元。②短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中高位，长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来 中低位。③从行业角度看，以成交额占比为例，过去一周通信、国防军工、 半导体等热度较高。 2 月第 1 周，资金入市合计净流出 499 亿元，前一周流出 1512 亿元。资金 流入方面，融资余额减少 516 亿元，公募基金发行增加 269 亿元，ETF 净申 购 32 亿元，北上资金估算净流出 82 亿元；资金流出方面，IPO 融资规模 18 亿元，产业资本净减持 67 亿元，交易费用 118 亿元。 短期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中高位。短期情绪指标主要看换手率和融资交 易占比，最近一周换手率（年化）为 497%，当前处在历史上由低到高 83%的 分位；最近一周融资交易占比为 9.21%，当前处在历史上由低到高 63%的分 位。 长期情绪指标处于 05 年以来中低位。长期情绪指标主要看大类资产比价， 一看价格对比，最近一周 A 股风险溢 ...

Group 1 - In the fourth week of January, the total net outflow of funds was 148.3 billion, compared to a net inflow of 173.9 billion in the previous week [1][8] - The short-term sentiment indicator is at a high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 627%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically [1][12] - The long-term sentiment indicator is at a medium-low level since 2005, with the recent A-share risk premium at 2.48%, in the 46th percentile historically [2][12] Group 2 - The top three industries by trading volume percentage in the past week were semiconductor (99%), non-ferrous metals (98%), and defense industry (97%), while the lowest were food processing (0%), transportation (0%), and real estate (1%) [2][14] - The highest financing transaction percentage industries were machinery equipment (86%), electric power equipment (82%), and social services (79%), while the lowest were banking (14%), non-bank financials (20%), and real estate (20%) [2][14]

Core Insights - The private equity sector is experiencing significant growth, with an increase in the number of private equity firms reaching the 100 billion yuan threshold, indicating a robust influx of capital into the market [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion of Private Equity Firms - As of January 23, 2026, the number of private equity firms in the 100 billion yuan tier has reached 116, an increase of 3 firms since the end of 2025 [2]. - Seven new or returning firms have joined the 100 billion tier this year, while four firms have exited [2]. - The performance of equity assets has been favorable, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above the 4100-point mark, contributing to the active fundraising environment for private equity [2]. Group 2: Influx of Long-term Capital - Among the newly added firms, Hengyi Chiying (Shenzhen) Private Equity has rapidly surpassed the 100 billion yuan mark, having started with a management scale of only 0 to 5 billion yuan at the end of 2025 [3]. - Insurance capital is increasingly entering the private equity sector, driven by the ongoing push for long-term investment trials and the need for asset reallocation in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. Group 3: Structural Market Trends - The continuous influx of new capital is expected to support the market's performance throughout the year, with high-net-worth individuals and insurance funds leading the asset reallocation efforts [4]. - The current market conditions are characterized by a gradual and rational approach to asset reallocation, suggesting that the resilience of this market trend may exceed expectations [4]. - The ratio of household deposits to GDP has risen from approximately 0.8 to around 1.2, indicating a significant accumulation of household savings, which may shift towards equity markets as risk-free returns decline [5].

Core Viewpoint - Retail and proprietary businesses are the main drivers of annual performance growth, benefiting from the resonance of allocation power and performance elasticity, with a focus on high-quality leading firms and wealth management characteristics [1]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to improve significantly due to active trading and base effects, with a projected year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.4% [2]. - For 2025, the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms is expected to rise by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 216.4 billion yuan [2]. - The Q4 single-quarter profit is projected to be 47.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase but a 27% quarter-on-quarter decrease [2]. Group 2: Business Contributions - Active trading has driven significant increases in market transaction volume and margin financing balance, supporting retail business growth alongside the recovery of proprietary business [3]. - For 2025, brokerage and credit businesses are expected to contribute 50.4% to revenue growth, while investment business is projected to contribute 45.5% [3]. - Daily average stock trading volume is expected to reach 2.0576 trillion yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase, and daily average margin financing balance is expected to reach 20.793 trillion yuan, a 33% year-on-year increase [3]. - Brokerage net income and interest net income are expected to grow by 49% and 57% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Proprietary business income is expected to grow due to the recovery in equity markets and stable bond markets [3]. - Investment banking revenue is projected to increase by 12% year-on-year, supported by a marginal recovery in equity financing [3]. - Asset management business scale is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, leading to a 4% year-on-year growth in asset management revenue [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing holdings in high-quality leading securities firms that benefit from incremental capital entering the market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending maturity of a significant amount of household savings deposits in China, which could impact market supply and demand dynamics in 2026, amidst a changing macroeconomic environment. Group 1: Deposit Maturity and Scale - The maturity of household savings deposits is expected to reach between 30 trillion to 60 trillion yuan in 2026, with estimates varying among institutions [1][3][5] - The total amount of domestic RMB deposits in financial institutions was approximately 327 trillion yuan as of November 2025, with household time deposits accounting for 121 trillion yuan [3] - A notable decline in the growth of household time deposits was observed, with an increase of only 11.03 trillion yuan in 2025, the lowest since 2022 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The expectation of a "deposit migration" process has begun, with significant funds potentially flowing into other wealth management assets as deposit rates decline [2][8] - Various brokerages predict a peak in deposit maturities in 2026, particularly for three-year time deposits initiated in 2023, with estimates suggesting a maturity volume of 38 trillion yuan [6][7] - The overall trend indicates that even a small percentage of funds migrating from deposits could represent a substantial amount due to the large base of total deposits [13] Group 3: Alternative Investment Products - Financial products such as wealth management, insurance, and funds are becoming more common alternatives to traditional deposits, with insurance products showing strong appeal due to their higher yields compared to bank deposits [10][11] - The insurance sector is expected to attract significant funds as it offers stable returns and safety, especially as traditional deposit rates decline [10] - Wealth management products are projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan under conservative scenarios in 2026 [9] Group 4: Stock Market Implications - The A-share market has shown signs of increased activity, with a record number of new accounts opened in 2025, indicating potential interest in stock investments [12] - Despite skepticism about a direct correlation between deposit maturity and stock market inflows, the sheer volume of deposits suggests that even minor reallocations could lead to significant capital entering the market [13][14] - Some analysts believe that the current environment may lead to a greater willingness among middle-income groups to invest in the stock market, influenced by positive market sentiment [14]

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4085.77 points, marking a new high since 2015, indicating a continuation of the upward trend from 2025 into 2026 [1] - The recent rally began in late September 2024 due to a series of incremental policies from the central government that boosted market confidence, followed by the "DeepSeek moment" during the 2025 Spring Festival, which attracted global investors to China's unexpected advancements in technology [1] - Technology stocks have become a structural pillar driving the A-share market, with the electronic industry market capitalization surpassing the banking sector for the first time in August 2025, making it the largest sector in the stock market [1] Group 2 - The improvement of the market regulatory system and policy support has been another significant factor driving the A-share market, with China focusing on activating capital markets and enhancing market confidence since 2023 [2] - The combination of policy dividends and technological innovation has created a positive feedback loop, with over 90% of high-tech companies listed on the ChiNext, STAR Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange, optimizing market structure and reshaping valuation systems [2] - The monetary policy shift towards interest rate cuts has led to lower yields on bank deposits and low-risk assets, prompting regulatory bodies to encourage long-term capital, such as insurance funds, to enter the market, which has significantly boosted market confidence [2] Group 3 - The upward momentum driven by technology, policy, and capital is expected to continue into 2026, with the central bank maintaining liquidity through flexible monetary policy tools [3] - Structural changes in the economy are underway, with a shift towards more competitive high-tech companies becoming mainstream, and a rising proportion of direct financing in the financial market [3] - The macroeconomic stability in 2026 is anticipated to provide a solid foundation for healthy capital market development, supported by the ongoing expansion of domestic demand and the recovery of traditional industry profitability [3]

Core Insights - The new fund issuance market is experiencing significant growth, with many funds ending their fundraising early and 20 funds being fully subscribed within a single day [1] Fund Issuance Trends - Since September, several funds have completed their fundraising ahead of schedule, indicating a strong demand in the market [1] - The Huatai-PineBridge Yingtai Stable 3-Month Holding Period Mixed FOF Fund, which started issuing on October 23, saw subscription funds exceed the upper limit of 5 billion yuan on its first day [1] - The China Europe Value Navigation Mixed Fund also announced the completion of its fundraising in one day, with a total issuance scale of 1.97 billion yuan [1] - Other funds, such as the Huashang Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Return Mixed Fund and the Bodao Huihong Value Growth Mixed Fund, also reported first-day subscription funds surpassing the upper limit of 1 billion yuan [1] Market Sentiment - Industry experts note a significant recovery in the issuance of equity funds, driven by a positive market outlook and the profitability of equity funds [1] - The increasing market enthusiasm is contributing to a cyclical pattern where "market recovery leads to capital inflow and product popularity" [1]

Core Insights - A significant influx of capital into the market through ETFs was observed after the National Day holiday, with a total net subscription of 314.88 billion yuan on October 10 and 246.14 billion yuan on October 13, amounting to over 56 billion yuan in just two trading days [1] Fund Flow Analysis - Multiple broad-based ETFs attracted substantial investments, with the Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF seeing a net subscription of 21.44 billion yuan [1] - Several industry-themed ETFs also experienced strong capital inflows, notably the Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF, which had a net subscription of 22.71 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - Various types of funds are entering the market, with insurance increasing stock allocation and public fund issuance/net subscriptions showing signs of recovery. The trend of residents "moving deposits" may have just begun [1][14] - The A-share liquidity index has shown a rapid increase, correlating highly with the median rise of brokerage stocks. Historical data indicates that significant increases in the liquidity index often precede or coincide with strong performance in brokerage stocks [2][41] - The brokerage industry is expected to achieve a profit growth rate of approximately 48% in the first half of 2025, with specific recommendations for undervalued and high ROE brokerage firms [3][48] Summary by Sections Current Fund Inflows - Since September 24, 2024, regulatory policies have encouraged various funds to enter the market, particularly focusing on long-term capital [14][15] - Insurance funds have shown stable premium growth, with stock allocation increasing to 8.5% as of Q2 2025, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024 [21][1] - Public funds are experiencing a recovery in both issuance and net subscriptions, with a notable increase in active equity fund subscriptions [23][1] - A new cycle of residents "moving deposits" has begun, with the total market capitalization to resident deposits ratio at a low of 0.59, indicating potential for further inflows [26][1] Market Liquidity and Brokerage Stocks - The average daily trading volume and margin financing balance have reached historically high levels, indicating improved market liquidity [34][41] - The maximum turnover rate of the Wind All A index has historically aligned with peaks in brokerage stock performance, suggesting a potential indicator for market tops [35][41] - The A-share liquidity index has shown significant increases during previous bullish phases, with a 74% rise in brokerage stocks since the market transition on July 10, 2024 [2][41] Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is projected to see a profit growth of around 48% in 2025, with specific recommendations for leading brokerage firms that are undervalued and have high ROE [3][48] - The report suggests focusing on firms like Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and others that are expected to benefit from market conditions and potential mergers [3][48] - The report highlights a calendar effect where brokerage stocks typically exhibit excess returns from July to November, influenced by policy discussions and financial performance reviews [52][41]