Gold is currently trading at $4,906/oz as macro desks keep paying for convexity in the oldest hedge, while Bitcoin is trading at $72,639 after a bounce to $78,376. Same tape. Different bid. Gold Flows Tell the Story The “receipt” for gold’s new regime sits in flow math, not slogans. World Gold Council data for full-year 2025 shows global gold ETF holdings of +801 tonnes (second-strongest year on record) and Q4 ETF inflows of 175 tonnes, alongside Q4 bar-and-coin demand of 420 tonnes, the strongest Q4 in 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has entered a significant bullish phase, with prices surging 6% to over $5,400 per ounce, marking a notable performance compared to other assets like silver and platinum [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold's market capitalization is estimated to be around $40 trillion, making it a standout asset in the current market environment [1]. - A substantial portion of gold's price increase followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that the fed funds rate would remain steady at 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - Powell cautioned against interpreting the rise in gold and silver prices as a macroeconomic signal, asserting that the Federal Reserve's credibility remains intact despite some market perceptions [3]. Group 2: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin (BTC) has been underperforming compared to gold, trading at $89,000 and showing little movement following the Fed's decision [4]. - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by more than 90%, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's struggles, which raises questions about its effectiveness as a macro hedge [6]. - The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin is losing its position as "digital gold," as gold is reclaiming market share from Bitcoin amid rising geopolitical and fiscal risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) has seen significant gains, driven by geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors, leading to a bullish outlook for precious metals and industrial metals [1][2][3]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Overview - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 6.78%, with a trading volume of 3.385 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 17 days, indicating robust demand [2]. Precious Metals - Precious metals are entering a historic bull market due to multiple factors, including the sell-off of dollar assets, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and increased central bank gold purchases [3]. - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, providing strong support for gold prices [3]. - Despite expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the second half of 2026, current demand for safe-haven assets is dominating the market [3]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metals are facing seasonal inventory accumulation but are supported by extreme shortages at the mining level and low global inventories [3]. - Copper prices are resilient due to strong pre-holiday stocking by downstream industries, with a significant supply gap expected in the first half of the year [3]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound due to low global inventories and strong demand driven by investments in power grids and solar energy [3]. New Energy and Minor Metals - Strategic resource attributes of metals like lithium and cobalt are becoming more prominent due to geopolitical tensions [4]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo's submission of a list of strategic assets, including copper, cobalt, and lithium, underscores the importance of these resources [4]. - Although cobalt prices have slightly declined, the structural supply tightness remains, supporting a long-term bullish outlook [4]. Overall Sector Logic - The logic of the non-ferrous metals sector is shifting from a simple supply-demand dynamic to a focus on macroeconomic risks and strategic resource security [5]. - The index for non-ferrous metals reflects the performance of 50 listed companies in the sector, with major constituents including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5].

Core Insights - By 2030, global ETF demand could exceed $500–$800 billion, creating upward pressure on Bitcoin prices due to a steady allocation cycle that absorbs supply regardless of short-term sentiment [1] - Bitcoin's long-term outlook is influenced by structural demand, shrinking supply, and its integration into institutional systems, with potential price targets ranging from $500K to $1M by the end of the decade [3][6] ETF Demand and Market Dynamics - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly altered Bitcoin's demand profile, with US spot Bitcoin ETF assets peaking at $169 billion in October 2025 before settling at $120 billion by December [2][7] - Total crypto ETF assets globally are approaching $180 billion, indicating a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin [2] Price Trends and Market Behavior - Bitcoin's price has shown volatility, starting near $107,135 in June, peaking at $126,000 in October, and currently trading around $90,000, reflecting a 26.3% correction from the peak [5][7] - The current price range of $86K–$92K suggests consolidation rather than a collapse, providing a clearer base for future movements [4] Supply Dynamics and Halving Impact - The 2028 halving will reduce daily Bitcoin issuance to approximately 225 BTC, coinciding with increased ETF allocations and a scarcity of new Bitcoin entering the market [8][6] - Historical patterns indicate that price acceleration typically peaks 12–24 months after a halving, suggesting a potential breakout phase in 2029–2030 [8] Institutional Adoption and Market Integration - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macro hedge against unstable monetary conditions, gaining appeal as a neutral reserve asset amid rising global debt and currency pressures [9] - Corporate treasury and banking adoption are on the rise, with many publicly traded companies accumulating Bitcoin and banks using it as collateral, enhancing its utility [10][11] Future Price Projections - The bullish case for Bitcoin suggests a price range of $750K–$1M if institutional demand surges and ETF assets approach $2 trillion [23] - A base case scenario estimates Bitcoin could trade between $350K–$500K with steady demand growth and selective sovereign accumulation [25][26] - A bearish case projects a price range of $120K–$220K if structural demand weakens and regulatory setbacks occur [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that gold and Bitcoin could coexist on central bank balance sheets by 2030, despite their current short-term performance divergence [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, falling below $113,000 after reaching over $123,500 in August, while gold hit a record high of $3,703 per ounce, marking its largest annual gain in over 40 years [2] - The contrasting performance of gold and Bitcoin reflects the market's response to geopolitical tensions, anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, and concerns regarding the Fed's independence, which have bolstered gold demand [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Deutsche Bank's note indicates that 2025 has been a strong year for both gold and Bitcoin, with high demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and a stable store of value [3] - A survey cited in the report reveals that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, and 95% expect a rise in global central bank reserves [3] - Bitcoin has shown resilience despite recent volatility, with historic lows in volatility suggesting increased institutional adoption [3] Group 3: Institutional Adoption and Support - Prominent figures, including Eric Trump, have endorsed crypto as a significant investment and hedge against traditional markets, suggesting that interest rate cuts could further boost crypto prices [4] - Over 180 companies have incorporated crypto into their balance sheets, often following the model of Michael Saylor's Strategy, although enthusiasm for these companies' shares has recently diminished [4] Group 4: Bitcoin's Role as a Macro Hedge - Deutsche Bank analysts highlight Bitcoin's emerging status as a potential macro hedge, indicating that digital assets may find a place alongside traditional reserve assets [5] - The firm believes that Bitcoin has further growth potential and questions whether recent economic and regulatory changes could lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy regarding its valuation [5]