Core Insights - By 2030, global ETF demand could exceed $500–$800 billion, creating upward pressure on Bitcoin prices due to a steady allocation cycle that absorbs supply regardless of short-term sentiment [1] - Bitcoin's long-term outlook is influenced by structural demand, shrinking supply, and its integration into institutional systems, with potential price targets ranging from $500K to $1M by the end of the decade [3][6] ETF Demand and Market Dynamics - Spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly altered Bitcoin's demand profile, with US spot Bitcoin ETF assets peaking at $169 billion in October 2025 before settling at $120 billion by December [2][7] - Total crypto ETF assets globally are approaching $180 billion, indicating a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin [2] Price Trends and Market Behavior - Bitcoin's price has shown volatility, starting near $107,135 in June, peaking at $126,000 in October, and currently trading around $90,000, reflecting a 26.3% correction from the peak [5][7] - The current price range of $86K–$92K suggests consolidation rather than a collapse, providing a clearer base for future movements [4] Supply Dynamics and Halving Impact - The 2028 halving will reduce daily Bitcoin issuance to approximately 225 BTC, coinciding with increased ETF allocations and a scarcity of new Bitcoin entering the market [8][6] - Historical patterns indicate that price acceleration typically peaks 12–24 months after a halving, suggesting a potential breakout phase in 2029–2030 [8] Institutional Adoption and Market Integration - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a macro hedge against unstable monetary conditions, gaining appeal as a neutral reserve asset amid rising global debt and currency pressures [9] - Corporate treasury and banking adoption are on the rise, with many publicly traded companies accumulating Bitcoin and banks using it as collateral, enhancing its utility [10][11] Future Price Projections - The bullish case for Bitcoin suggests a price range of $750K–$1M if institutional demand surges and ETF assets approach $2 trillion [23] - A base case scenario estimates Bitcoin could trade between $350K–$500K with steady demand growth and selective sovereign accumulation [25][26] - A bearish case projects a price range of $120K–$220K if structural demand weakens and regulatory setbacks occur [27][28]

Gold (GC=F) and crypto are performing very differently in the short term — but one firm says the two could thrive side by side in the years ahead. "There is room for both gold and Bitcoin to coexist on central bank balance sheets by 2030," Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon wrote in a recent note. That bullish outlook comes after bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell sharply on Monday, slipping below $113,000 after briefly topping $123,500 in August. Meanwhile, gold surged to a fresh all-time high ...