4 January 2026 | 11:23PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China Three quick highlights from China: n Significant rebound in official manufacturing PMI: China's NBS manufacturing PMI rose from 49.2 in November to 50.1 in December, surpassing both consensus and our expectations. This rebound contrasts with declining steel production seen in high-frequency data and the subdued Emerging Industries PMI released earlier. However, it aligns with the typical "quarter-end rebound" pattern observed in 20 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down -0.33%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is down -0.35%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down -0.34% [1] - Stock indexes are experiencing declines, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching 1-week lows, and the Nasdaq 100 hitting a 1.5-week low [2] - Trading activity is subdued with volumes below normal due to market closures in Germany and Japan for the New Year's holiday [3] Sector Performance - Weakness in chip stocks and data storage companies is contributing to the broader market decline [2] - Mining stocks are also sliding, with gold prices falling to a 2.5-week low and silver prices dropping more than -7% [2] Economic Indicators - US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by -16,000 to a 1-month low of 199,000, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [3] - Better-than-expected Chinese economic data supports global growth prospects, with the December manufacturing PMI rising +0.9 to 50.1, and the non-manufacturing PMI increasing +0.7 to 50.2 [4] Seasonal Trends - Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks, with historical data showing the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% increase [5] - Market focus for the holiday-shortened week will be on US economic news, with expectations for the December S&P manufacturing PMI to remain at 51.8 [5] Global Market Overview - Overseas stock markets are mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.08% and China's Shanghai Composite up +0.09% [6]

This story was originally published on Trucking Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily Trucking Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: Truckload volumes are expected to remain muted in Q4, but a meaningful shift could occur in 2026, according to freight broker RXO's Nov. 20 Curve report. The Curve was part of Coyote Logistics until RXO acquired the business last year. While October and November outperformed on a year-over-year basis, spot rates will most likely remain stuck, witho ...

Market Overview - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index indicates a slight easing in overall fear levels, yet remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone with a current reading of 23.0, up from 18.6 [6][7] - U.S. stocks experienced a decline on Monday, with the Dow Jones falling over 400 points, closing lower by approximately 427 points at 47,289.33 [4] Stock Performance - The Dow Jones index had a strong rally last week, increasing more than 3%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged nearly 4% [1] - In contrast, the Nasdaq dipped almost 2% last month, while the S&P 500 and Dow recorded slight gains during November [2] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 52.2 in November from a preliminary reading of 51.9, but decreased from October's final reading of 52.5 [3] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November, marking the lowest reading in four months, down from 48.7 in the previous month and missing market estimates of 48.6 [3] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed negatively, with utilities, industrials, and healthcare stocks experiencing the largest losses [4] - Conversely, energy and information technology stocks closed higher, bucking the overall market trend [4] Company News - Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reduced its 2025 earnings guidance and announced a share sale to build a $1.44 billion reserve [2] - Investors are anticipating earnings results from United Natural Foods Inc. (NYSE:UNFI), Signet Jewelers Ltd. (NYSE:SIG), and CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD) [5]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling approximately 250 points, down 0.53% to 47,465.86, the NASDAQ down 0.22% to 23,313.48, and the S&P 500 down 0.26% to 6,831.40 [1] - Energy shares increased by 1%, while utilities stocks decreased by 2.1% [1] Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November, marking the lowest level in four months, down from 48.7 in the previous month and below market expectations of 48.6 [2][11] - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised up to 52.2 in November from a preliminary reading of 51.9, but down from October's final reading of 52.5 [11] Commodity Market - Oil prices rose by 1.4% to $59.40, gold increased by 0.2% to $4,263.90, silver climbed 2.8% to $58.765, and copper rose 0.6% to $5.3050 [5] European Market - European shares were predominantly lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 down 0.20%, while Spain's IBEX 35 Index rose 0.11%. The FTSE 100 fell 0.18%, Germany's DAX 40 dipped 1.04%, and France's CAC 40 decreased by 0.32% [6] Asian Market - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.89%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.67%, China's Shanghai Composite up 0.65%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.08% [7] Company News - Q32 Bio Inc. shares surged 103% to $4.4404 after selling its Phase 2 complement inhibitor ADX-097 to Akebia for $12 million upfront, with potential milestone and royalty payments up to $592 million [9] - New Fortress Energy Inc. shares rose 15% to $1.4050 following news of conditional approval for a large liquified natural gas supply contract [9] - KALA BIO, Inc. shares increased by 86% to $1.8004 after securing a $6 million securities purchase agreement and appointing David Lazar as CEO and Chairman [9] - Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. shares fell 16% to $36.42 after being downgraded by RBC Capital from Sector Perform to Underperform [9] - CN ENERGY GROUP Inc shares dropped 17% to $1.2101 after announcing the launch of its PATHENBOT Robotics Solutions Platform [9] - Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. shares fell 13% to $28.96, with crypto-linked stocks declining after Bitcoin fell below $86,000 [9]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones falling approximately 250 points, down 0.53% to 47,465.86, the NASDAQ down 0.22% to 23,313.48, and the S&P 500 down 0.26% to 6,831.40 [1] - European shares were mostly lower, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 down 0.20%, while Spain's IBEX 35 Index rose 0.11% [6] - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.89% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng up 0.67% [7] Sector Performance - Energy shares increased by 1% on Monday, while utilities stocks fell by 2.1% [1] Economic Indicators - The ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.2 in November, the lowest in four months, down from 48.7 in October and below market expectations of 48.6 [2][11] - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 52.2 in November from a preliminary reading of 51.9, but still down from October's final reading of 52.5 [11] Commodity Prices - Oil prices rose by 1.4% to $59.40, gold increased by 0.2% to $4,263.90, silver rose by 2.8% to $58.765, and copper increased by 0.6% to $5.3050 [5] Company News - Q32 Bio Inc. shares surged 103% to $4.4404 after selling its Phase 2 complement inhibitor ADX-097 for $12 million upfront, with potential milestone and royalty payments up to $592 million [9] - New Fortress Energy Inc. shares rose 15% to $1.4050 following news of conditional approval for a large liquified natural gas supply contract [9] - KALA BIO, Inc. shares increased by 86% to $1.8004 after securing a $6 million securities purchase agreement and appointing a new CEO [9] - Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. shares dropped 16% to $36.42 after a downgrade from RBC Capital [9] - CN ENERGY GROUP Inc shares fell 17% to $1.2101 after announcing the launch of a new robotics solutions platform [9] - Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. shares decreased by 13% to $28.96 as crypto-linked stocks fell following Bitcoin's drop below $86,000 [9]

Aerial view of vehicles being driven on the road through the central business district on October 5, 2020 in Beijing, China.Asia-Pacific markets opened December mostly in the red Monday as traders parsed fresh manufacturing data from China and rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month.Traders are pricing in an 87.4% chance of a quarter-point rate cut for the upcoming Fed meeting on Dec. 10, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened 0.13% lower, while the m ...

Core Points - The dollar index is slightly higher due to a rise in the 10-year T-note yield and comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding interest rate cuts [1] - The US manufacturing PMI report was weaker than expected, contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [1][4] - Fed Governor Miran expressed concerns about the current restrictive monetary policy, suggesting it may be too tight [2] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with a significant chance of interest rate cuts anticipated [3] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained stable, while the ECB is not expected to cut rates further, contrasting with the Fed's anticipated cuts [5] Summary by Category Dollar Index and Interest Rates - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly higher by +0.06%, supported by a +2.5 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield [1] - Markets are pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [3] Manufacturing Data - The October ISM manufacturing index fell by -0.4 points to 48.7, below expectations [4] - The final-October S&P US manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher by +0.3 points to 52.5, exceeding market expectations [4] Central Bank Commentary - Fed Governor Miran stated that the Fed's current policy is too restrictive and does not see a reason for maintaining such a stance [2] - The ECB is perceived to have completed its rate-cut cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese manufacturing sector**, highlighting the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and its implications for the economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Manufacturing PMI Decline**: - China's Manufacturing PMI fell to **49.0** in October, a decrease of **0.8 percentage points (pp)** from September, marking the seventh consecutive month in contraction territory [4][6][14] - The decline is attributed to seasonal effects, including **five fewer working days** in October compared to September, and a challenging trade environment [4][6] 2. **Policy Response**: - The Ministry of Finance (MoF) has allocated an unused local government bond quota of **RMB500 billion** for Q4 2025, with **RMB200 billion** earmarked for investment [6] - A new policy-finance instrument of **RMB500 billion** has been fully implemented, expected to drive total project investment exceeding **RMB7 trillion** [6] 3. **Investment Growth Recovery**: - A recovery in investment growth is anticipated towards the end of the year as policy measures take effect [6] - The full-year GDP forecast is maintained at **5%** for 2025, with expectations for the government to keep the GDP target at "around 5%" for 2026 [6] 4. **Production and Demand Weakness**: - The production index fell to **49.7**, the first reading below 50 in six months, indicating a slowdown in production [7] - New orders dropped to **48.8**, the lowest since January 2024, with new export orders particularly weak at **45.9** [7] 5. **Price and Employment Trends**: - Producer prices decreased to **47.5**, indicating easing price momentum [7] - The employment index edged down to **48.3**, reflecting weakened employment conditions despite some improvement in job sentiment [7] 6. **Non-Manufacturing PMI**: - The Non-Manufacturing PMI showed resilience, improving by **0.1 pp** to **50.1**, aligning with market consensus [5] 7. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - The services sector benefited from holiday travel, while the construction sector saw deterioration, with the Construction PMI easing to **49.1** [7][10] Additional Important Information - The report indicates that while major policy stimulus is not expected in 2025, incremental support measures are being deployed to cushion economic pressures [6] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to resume government bond purchases and maintain ample liquidity amid growth pressures [6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese manufacturing sector, policy responses, and economic forecasts.

Economic Indicators - The September US CPI report showed a monthly increase of +0.3% and a yearly increase of +3.0%, which was slightly below market expectations of +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y [2] - The core CPI for September also rose by +0.2% m/m and +3.0% y/y, again slightly weaker than the expected +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y [2] - The final-August University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index fell by -1.4 points to 53.6, weaker than the expected drop to 54.5 [3] Market Reactions - The dollar index ended the day little changed, influenced by the weaker-than-expected CPI report and a -0.6 basis point decline in the US 10-year T-note yield [1] - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 due to the ongoing US government shutdown [4] Eurozone Indicators - The preliminary-October HCOB Eurozone manufacturing PMI rose by +0.2 points to 50.0, exceeding expectations for no change at 49.8 [5] - The preliminary-October HCOB Eurozone services PMI increased by +1.3 points to 52.6, stronger than the anticipated decline to 51.2 [5]