Core Insights - Starbucks stock has decreased by approximately 15% over the last year, with historical data suggesting potential for further declines, as the company has previously suffered greater losses than the overall market during downturns [1][2][3] Revenue Growth - Starbucks achieved an average revenue growth of around 4.7% over the last three years, with a slight increase of 0.6% in the past year, raising sales from $36 billion to $37 billion [3] - Recent quarterly revenue rose 3.8% year-over-year, reaching $9.5 billion compared to $9.1 billion during the same period last year [3] - However, same-store sales experienced a global decline of 2% in the most recent quarter, with North America seeing a 3% drop in transaction volumes [4] Margin Compression - Operating income for the last year was $3.8 billion, resulting in a margin of 10.5%, while net income was approximately $2.6 billion, leading to a slim margin of 7.2% [5] - Operating margins in North America have fallen from above 20% to closer to 13%, influenced by rising labor costs, increased coffee bean prices, and the "Back to Starbucks" reinvestment strategy requiring over $3 billion in spending [7] Valuation Concerns - Starbucks stock is currently priced near $83, with projections indicating a potential drop to $40, representing a 50% decline if revenue growth stagnates and margins remain compressed [2][8] - EPS is projected to decline from $3.31 in FY 2024 to $2.20 in FY 2025, before partially recovering to $2.71 in FY 2026, indicating weaker profitability compared to previous years [8] - The stock trades at high multiples of 37x forward earnings for FY 2025 and 30x for FY 2026, significantly higher than peers like Coca-Cola and McDonald's [9] Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, Starbucks maintains long-term recovery potential due to its global scale, premium brand, and effective loyalty program, which provide pricing power and international growth opportunities [10]

Core Insights - Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) experienced a 4% year-over-year increase in production costs of sales per ounce, reaching $1,074 in Q2, while all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rose nearly 8% to $1,493 per gold equivalent ounce sold, indicating inflationary pressures [1][7] - The company anticipates continued cost pressures through the end of 2025, projecting full-year AISC to reach $1,500 and production cash costs around $1,120 per ounce due to lower expected production and inflation [2][7] - KGC's AISC remains lower than peers Barrick Mining Corporation and Newmont Corporation, but rising costs suggest potential margin compression risks ahead [5][7] Industry Comparisons - Barrick Mining Corporation reported a 17% increase in cash costs per ounce and a 12% rise in AISC year-over-year, with AISC reaching $1,684 in Q2 [3] - Newmont Corporation's gold costs applicable to sales rose approximately 6% to $1,215 per ounce, with AISC increasing around 2% to $1,593 per ounce due to production declines from asset divestments [4] Stock Performance - KGC's shares have surged 112.9% year-to-date, outperforming the Mining – Gold industry, which rose 78.6%, primarily driven by a rally in gold prices [6] - The forward 12-month earnings multiple for KGC is currently at 13.97, aligning with the industry average, and it holds a Value Score of A [8] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 92.7% and 9.5%, respectively, with EPS estimates trending higher over the past 60 days [9]

Core Viewpoint - Silvercrest Asset Management Group reported a decline in earnings and revenue for Q2 2025, despite achieving record assets under management, indicating challenges in profitability due to rising costs and fee pressures [1][7][8]. Financial Performance - GAAP revenue for Q2 2025 was $30.7 million, down 1.0% from $31.0 million in Q2 2024, and slightly below analyst expectations [1][12]. - Non-GAAP EPS was $0.25, missing estimates by 16.7% and down from $0.30 in Q2 2024 [1][2]. - Adjusted EBITDA fell to $5.7 million, a decrease of 20.6% year-over-year [2]. - Net income dropped to $3.1 million, down 28.4% from the previous year [2]. Assets Under Management - Assets under management reached a record $36.7 billion, up 9.9% from $33.4 billion a year earlier [1][5]. - Discretionary AUM increased by 9.7% year-over-year, while non-discretionary AUM rose by 10.2% [5]. Client Flows - Overall net client flows were negative at ($0.4) billion, although this was an improvement from ($0.9) billion in Q2 2024 [6]. - Gross client inflows were $0.9 billion, with outflows at $1.3 billion [6]. Expense Management - Total expenses increased by 3.7% year-over-year, driven by a 1.7% rise in compensation and benefits and an 8.8% increase in general and administrative expenses [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 18.7% from 23.3% year-over-year [8]. Investment Strategies - Proprietary equity strategies showed mixed results, with the Large Cap Value composite returning 10.1% compared to its benchmark's 13.7%, while the Global Value Opportunity composite outperformed its benchmark with a return of 19.5% [9]. Shareholder Returns - The company completed a $12.0 million share repurchase and announced a new $25.0 million buyback authorization [10]. - The quarterly dividend was raised by 5% to $0.21 per share [10][13]. Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about long-term growth, highlighting a strong pipeline for global investment strategies and new client acquisitions [11]. - Elevated expenses are expected to persist through at least 2026, with anticipated improvements in margins as growth investments begin to yield results [11][12].