Let's ask the so-called dean of valuation, Aswat de motor in NYU's Stern School of Business. Good to have you back. >> Thank you for having me. >> I mean, I think we're all looking at the the the same market and maybe coming with different conclusions. What about these meggaap stocks? I mean, when you grade them, what do you what do you give them? I I think one of the reasons it's so difficult to arrive at a consensus here is when you look at the market caps and they clearly I mean they're at levels we have ...

Synopsys, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNPS) is a key player in the electronic design automation industry, providing software and intellectual property for semiconductor design. As a leader in chip-design software, Synopsys faces competition from companies like Cadence Design Systems. The company is set to release its quarterly earnings on December 10, 2025, with analysts estimating an earnings per share (EPS) of $2.79 and projected revenue of $2.25 billion.Bank of America has recently upgraded Synopsys to a "Neutral" rati ...

Core Insights - US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, leading to cautious expectations for investment returns [1] Market Valuation - Monthly market valuation updates consistently indicate overvaluation in US stock indexes [1]

Investing in the markets today comes with high valuation metrics, and a dichotomy between mega-cap tech companies driving market growth thanks to strong tailwinds (but that may be overpriced) and with the rest of the economy. A simple market-capI am a dynamic finance professional with a Master’s in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. My investing background mix corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets. I speci ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights concerns about the blurring lines between investing and gambling, particularly among younger individuals who may be treating investments as a form of gambling rather than a means of wealth accumulation [1][4][7]. Group 1: Investment vs. Gambling - The distinction between investing and gambling is emphasized, with investing being described as compounding and gambling as consumption, which is a zero-sum game [3][6]. - The rise of various gambling platforms, including prediction markets and options trading, is seen as a potential risk to the understanding of traditional investing [2][4]. - The need for education on the differences between investing and gambling is stressed, as the current environment is perceived as a regulatory gray zone [4][6]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The current market is described as having outperformed its fundamentals, with a valuation of 25 times earnings and a 10-year Treasury yield at 10%, raising concerns about equity risk premiums [11][12]. - The discussion includes a mention of the significant wealth transfer occurring, with a caution against treating this wealth as disposable income in gambling contexts [8][10]. - The overall sentiment towards the economy is cautiously optimistic, with acknowledgment of the impact of recent policies and tariffs on investment and job creation [16][17]. Group 3: Company Perspectives - The company expresses a commitment to maintaining a clear distinction between investing and gambling, rejecting the idea of incorporating gambling elements into their business model [7][8]. - There is a recognition of the entertainment aspect of gambling, but a strong preference for focusing on traditional investment strategies [8][9]. - The company is aware of the high valuations in the market and the potential for caution among investors, suggesting a need for strategic planning rather than panic selling [20].

Company Overview - Five Below, Inc. is a specialty retailer offering products priced at $5 and below, targeting teens and pre-teens, with over 1,000 stores in the U.S. [1] - The company competes with Dollar Tree and Dollar General in the low-cost retail sector [1] Upcoming Earnings Release - Five Below is set to release its quarterly earnings on December 3, 2025, with analysts predicting an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.22 and revenue of approximately $977 million [2][6] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 32.63, indicating a high market valuation and investor confidence [2][6] Shareholder Governance Investigation - Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating potential breaches of fiduciary duties by Five Below's officers and directors, highlighting the importance of shareholder involvement in corporate governance [3] Institutional Investor Interest - Institutional investors are increasing their stakes in Five Below, with Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. raising its stake by 1.3%, now owning 690,615 shares valued at $90.6 million [4][6] - Other firms like IFP Advisors Inc. and Caitong International Asset Management Co. Ltd have also significantly increased their holdings, reflecting confidence in the company's future prospects [4] Financial Metrics - Five Below's financial metrics include a price-to-sales ratio of 2.10 and an enterprise value to sales ratio of 2.45, indicating how the market values its revenue [5] - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, suggesting a moderate level of debt, and a current ratio of 1.71, showing its ability to meet short-term liabilities [5]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a state of 'exhaustion' as described by Citi's US equity strategist Scott Chronert, reflecting the challenges investors have faced throughout the year, including issues related to AI, tariffs, and summer deficits [1] - Despite these challenges, the market is up by low teens percentage-wise, indicating a tough but successful navigation for many investors [1] Valuation Insights - The market is currently at a level considered 'full value', which is based on various metrics including future earnings growth and the current rate environment [2] - For the market to see significant upward movement, future earnings growth projections need to continue to improve [2] Company-Specific Analysis: T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS) - T-Mobile has been identified as one of the best QQQ stocks with an average upside potential of 30.08% as of November 21 [7] - The company reported its best-ever total postpaid net additions, exceeding 1 million, and raised its total postpaid net additions guidance for the year to 7.2 to 7.4 million [9] - T-Mobile's revenue for the quarter was $21.96 billion, an 8.90% year-over-year increase, although it missed Street estimates by $7.29 million [9] - The company added over 500,000 customers to its 5G broadband business and raised its fiber customer net additions guidance to approximately 130,000 [10] Company-Specific Analysis: Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) - Microsoft is also listed among the best QQQ stocks with an average upside potential of 34.08% as of November 21 [11] - The company announced new strategic partnerships with NVIDIA and Anthropic to scale the Claude AI model, which includes a commitment to purchase $30 billion of Microsoft Azure compute capacity [12] - Microsoft is investing up to $5 billion in Anthropic, expanding access to Claude for businesses and integrating it into its Copilot family [13]

Core Insights - The current market environment is characterized as a "golden age of active investing," driven by mispricings and opportunities in smaller market cap securities and international stocks [10][14][61] - There is a significant disparity in market capitalization among the largest companies, with some reaching valuations of over $4 trillion, while smaller companies like American Airlines have market caps around $15 billion [12][13] - The focus on free cash flow yields is emphasized, with many large-cap tech companies exhibiting low yields compared to smaller or undervalued companies [19][90] Market Trends - Active investing has gained traction since 2020, largely due to the dominance of large-cap technology companies and the distortions caused by passive investing [10][11] - International markets, particularly in Europe, have shown strong performance, with the Italian ETF up 52.7% this year, indicating opportunities outside the U.S. [14][57] - The S&P 500's P/E ratio is currently around 31, which, while high, is not unprecedented compared to historical peaks [35][36] Investment Strategies - The strategy of being contrarian is highlighted, suggesting that investors should look for mispriced opportunities and consider free cash flow yields as a critical metric for investment decisions [9][89] - REITs, particularly Realty Income, are suggested as potentially undervalued due to a long period of underperformance, setting the stage for future gains [32][34] - The importance of starting valuation is reiterated, with a focus on companies that have high free cash flow yields as attractive investment opportunities [94] Valuation Metrics - Price-to-sales ratios are discussed as a key valuation metric, with many companies trading at multiples significantly above historical norms, indicating potential overvaluation [45][46] - The current market environment shows a bifurcation where some stocks are highly valued while others remain undervalued, suggesting a need for careful selection [47][61] Macro Economic Factors - The U.S. dollar's performance is noted as a significant factor influencing market dynamics, with a weaker dollar benefiting international investments and commodities [85][86] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated, which could impact various sectors differently, particularly those reliant on economic growth [68][71]

Market Sentiment & Valuation - Market initially rejoiced the end of the government shutdown [1] - Market feels a bit frothy, with mega caps moving 10% on earnings reports [2] - Skepticism has replaced faith in recent weeks [4] - There's a chance of a significant 5% to 10% pullback [5] Technology & Geopolitics - Concerns exist regarding China's technology advancements [3] - China's technology advancements are disturbing [3] Government Intervention & Liquidity - Speculation exists that the government will flood the market with money and liquidity [6] - Potential for government to flood the consumer with money and liquidity coming into the midterms [6] - Government may implement measures like 15-year car loans, 50-year mortgages, and $2,000 dividend tariff checks [5]

Market Performance - Broad market indices ended last week lower, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both losing 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.2%. Technology stocks were the largest losers, with the Nasdaq Composite down 3% [2] - Stocks managed to recoup losses on Friday after being down significantly early in the day, with the S&P 500 bouncing off a key support level at 6670 [3] Economic Indicators - The government shutdown may be coming to an end, which could salvage the holiday season despite the total damage from the shutdown still being assessed [3] - Third-quarter earnings are on pace to rise 13.1% year-over-year, significantly surpassing initial estimates of just under 8% [4] - Despite strong earnings growth, market valuations remain extended, with the S&P 500's 12-month forward-looking P/E ratio at 22.7, above its 5- and 10-year averages of 20 and 18.6, respectively [5] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Layoffs are accelerating, and net job growth may be negative, contributing to a sharp drop in consumer sentiment, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index at 50.3, one of the lowest levels recorded [5] - The current employment situation is uncertain due to the government shutdown, but private estimates suggest job growth is at best anemic [5] Legislative Developments - The Senate is close to passing a resolution to reopen the government, which would require agreement from the House, raising concerns about potential delays [6] - A resumption of normal government functions would allow for better assessment of the broader economic picture, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - There is currently a 65% chance of a quarter-point cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 10th, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool [6] Market Sentiment - Markets are optimistic about a potential deal in Congress, with equities trading higher by around 1% in the premarket [7] - If the legislation fails to pass, the 6670 level in the S&P 500 may be tested again [8]