I find the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF™ ( SCHD ) to be one of the most debated funds on Seeking Alpha. Many love it for its dividend focus, while others see its concentration and recentDecoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’ ...

President Trump's intervention in Venezuela carries risks, but market fundamentals remain solid. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratios, focusing on demand and supply as the core of market behavior [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is split between low-cost funds and individual stocks, with a balanced portfolio of approximately 50% in each [1] - The author prefers to hold stocks for a minimum of 10 years, indicating a long-term investment approach [1] Group 2: Market Understanding - The market is described as forward-looking, with a need to predict human behavior rather than relying solely on numerical data [1] - The author stresses the importance of understanding sectors, industries, and long-term growth trends to make informed investment decisions [1] Group 3: Current Investment Outlook - The author expresses a bullish outlook on specific companies and assets, including AMD, PLTR, TSLA, broad US equities, and Bitcoin [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures advanced on Monday following a mixed close on Friday, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - Investors are anticipating the September jobs report, which is crucial for assessing the labor market and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.12%, while the two-year bond was at 3.60%, indicating market expectations for interest rate changes [2] Company Insights - Nvidia Corp. is set to release its earnings results on Wednesday, which is highly anticipated by investors [2] - Dell Technologies Inc. experienced a decline of 4.04% after being downgraded by Morgan Stanley from 'Overweight' to 'Underweight', with a price target cut from $144.00 to $110.00 [6] - Boeing Co. saw a slight increase of 0.30% following Emirates' third order for 777X airplanes, indicating ongoing demand for air travel [6] - Palantir Technologies Inc. rose by 0.73% due to a partnership with Multiverse to enhance NHS staff training, focusing on AI and data skills [12] Sector Performance - The S&P 500 sectors were mostly negative on Friday, with materials, financials, and communication services experiencing the largest losses [7] - The overall performance of major indices showed slight variations, with the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.13% and the S&P 500 down by 0.05% [8] Analyst Insights - Ryan Detrick presented an optimistic market outlook, emphasizing strong fundamentals and a projected 13.1% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 earnings for the third quarter [9] - Companies generating over 50% of their revenue outside the U.S. are expected to see even higher growth at 13.5% [9] - Historical data suggests that markets tend to perform well after government shutdowns, with the S&P 500 rising 19 out of 22 times one year post-shutdown, averaging a gain of 12.7% [10]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratios, focusing on demand and supply as the core of market behavior [1] - It highlights the significance of predicting human behavior in investment decisions, suggesting that market sentiment and momentum play crucial roles [1] - The author expresses a bullish outlook on specific companies and sectors, including AMD, PLTR, TSLA, broad US equities, and Bitcoin [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy is split between low-cost funds and individual stocks, with a long-term holding perspective of at least 10 years [1] - The approach requires a blend of ingenuity, curiosity, and a willingness to go against prevailing market trends [1] - The author advocates for a deeper understanding of sectors, industries, and long-term growth trends rather than relying solely on numerical evaluations [1]

Market Outlook & Economic Conditions - Uncertainty surrounding government shutdowns and Washington agreement weighs on investors, but underlying fundamentals are lifting markets [3] - Softening labor market and potential inflationary pressures due to tariffs create a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [8] - Political polarization in Washington can erode investor confidence [6] - Northern Trust Asset Management believes the odds of a US recession have decreased [10] Monetary Policy - The market anticipates potential Fed interest rate cuts due to uncertainty [7] - Northern Trust Asset Management expects the Fed funds rate to be approximately 100 basis points (1%) lower over the next 12 months [9] Investment Strategy - Northern Trust Asset Management favors risk assets (stocks) within a balanced portfolio [10] - Recently, the firm has increased exposure to the US market due to increased confidence in a soft landing [10] - Companies doubled earnings estimates last quarter, indicating a strong trend for the year ahead [11]

Investment Strategy - The company adopts a balanced investment strategy, allocating approximately 50% of its portfolio to low-cost funds and 50% to single stocks viewed as asymmetric bets [1] - The investment philosophy emphasizes a long-term holding period of at least 10 years for stocks, avoiding market timing [1] Market Perspective - The company recognizes that the market is forward-looking, focusing on predicting human behavior rather than solely relying on traditional metrics like P/E ratios [1] - It views the market as a meeting point between demand and supply, suggesting that understanding market sentiment and trends is crucial for investment decisions [1] Current Investment Outlook - The company is currently bullish on several stocks, including AMD, PLTR, TSLA, broad US equities, and Bitcoin, indicating a positive outlook on these assets [1]