Carrier Global FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Carrier Global (NYSE:CARR) - **Industry**: HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) and Transportation Refrigeration Equipment - **Event**: FY Conference held on November 12, 2025 Key Points and Arguments Company Strategy and Market Position - Carrier has established a focused and balanced portfolio aimed at sustained growth through leadership in products, aftermarket, and systems [4][5] - The company is a market leader in residential and commercial HVAC, with significant investments made post-spin to enhance product offerings and market share [5][6] - Carrier's data center revenues are projected to double to $1 billion this year, with a backlog extending into 2028, indicating strong future growth potential [6][10] Residential Business Insights - The residential HVAC market in the U.S. is estimated to have about 130 million installed units, with a historical replacement rate of approximately 6% annually [7][8] - Current estimates suggest a decline in replacement rates to about 7.5 million units for the year, with expectations of gradual recovery to historical norms over the next few years [9][10] - The company is focused on reducing field inventories by 30% to mitigate destocking headwinds, achieving a reduction of over 25% as of October [11][12] Market Dynamics and Challenges - Factors affecting the residential market include high interest rates, low existing home sales, and consumer reluctance to replace HVAC systems [20][21] - The company acknowledges that excess stocking levels from the previous year have contributed to current market challenges [19][20] - The residential replacement market is primarily driven by break-fix scenarios, with pent-up demand expected as consumers transition to new refrigerants [24][25] Pricing and Margin Outlook - Carrier's pricing environment remains robust, with overall pricing up double digits year-over-year, and plans for mid-single-digit price increases in residential HVAC for the next year [26][28] - The company anticipates carryover cost savings of at least $100 million next year, contributing positively to margins [29][42] Growth Projections - Carrier maintains a medium-term organic growth target of 6%-8%, supported by market share gains and product differentiation strategies [30][31] - The commercial HVAC segment is expected to grow significantly, particularly in data centers, which are projected to see a 20%-25% increase in activity next year [36][35] Capital Allocation and Share Repurchase - The company plans to focus on share repurchases, with an expected $3 billion allocated for this purpose in the current year, alongside funding for organic growth and dividends [43][45] - Carrier is not currently pursuing large-scale acquisitions, emphasizing a focus on execution and customer service [45] Additional Important Insights - The company is leveraging technology and data analytics to enhance forecasting and operational efficiency [21][22] - There is a strong emphasis on aftermarket growth through improved parts capture, service attachment, and modifications/upgrades [40][41] - Carrier's commitment to cost reduction while investing in growth positions it well for future recovery and market leadership [12][45]

Core Insights - Hanesbrands Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 results, with both revenue and earnings falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate, although the bottom line showed year-over-year improvement [1][3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings from continuing operations were 15 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 16 cents, but up from 12 cents per share in the prior year [3][9]. - Net sales from continuing operations decreased by 1% year over year to $891.7 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $901 million; on a constant-currency basis, organic net sales fell by 4.9% [3][9]. - Adjusted gross profit was $364 million, down 3% year over year, with an adjusted gross margin of 40.8%, a decline of nearly 80 basis points [4]. Cost Management - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) costs were $255.9 million, down 8.4% year over year, and as a percentage of net sales, SG&A costs decreased to 28.7% from 31% in the prior year [5]. - Adjusted operating profit was $116 million, up 3% year over year, with an adjusted operating margin of 13%, an increase of 45 basis points, driven by lower SG&A expenses [5]. Segment Performance - U.S. segment net sales decreased by 4.5% year over year to $647.5 million, impacted by unexpected shifts in ordering patterns; however, unit point-of-sale trends improved sequentially [6]. - The U.S. segment's operating margin was 22.2%, up almost 20 basis points, supported by reduced input costs and cost-saving initiatives [7]. - International segment net sales decreased by 8% to $204.4 million, with a $4 million headwind from unfavorable foreign exchange rates; constant-currency net sales increased in Japan but declined in the Americas and Australia [8]. Financial Position - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $217.6 million, long-term debt of $2.21 billion, and total stockholders' equity of $446.4 million [11]. - Net cash from operating activities was $27.6 million, with free cash flow of $22.3 million in the third quarter [11]. Strategic Outlook - Hanesbrands has entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by Gildan and is no longer providing guidance; however, management indicated that performance remains consistent with previously communicated 2025 EPS outlook [12].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wynn Las Vegas reported EBITDA growth of 3% to $211 million on a hold-adjusted basis, with casino revenues up 10% [3][11] - Adjusted property EBITDA for Wynn Las Vegas was $203.4 million on $621 million of operating revenue, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 32.8% [11] - Macau operations generated adjusted property EBITDA of $308.3 million on $1 billion of operating revenue, with an EBITDA margin of 30.8% [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Slot revenues at Encore Boston Harbor grew over 5% year-on-year, contributing to an adjusted property EBITDA of $58.4 million on revenue of $211.8 million [11] - The company maintained a disciplined approach to operating expenses (OPEX), with OPEX per day in Boston up only 1.9% compared to Q3 2024 [11] - In Macau, mass volumes were strong, up 15% year-on-year, despite weather disruptions [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The gaming market share in Las Vegas continued to grow, driven by strong demand and effective marketing strategies [3] - Macau experienced sustained double-digit market-wide growth in gross gaming revenue (GGR), indicating a positive outlook for the region [6] - The company noted that demand in Boston remained healthy in October, with both drop and handle above last year [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on completing renovations and expansions, including the Fairway Villas and the Chairman's Club gaming area [4][8] - Wynn Al Marjan Island is positioned as a unique integrated resort opportunity in the UAE, with no competing operations announced to date [10] - The company plans to continue investing in its market-leading assets in Las Vegas while managing macroeconomic uncertainties [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the Las Vegas market, noting improvements in group bookings and overall demand [19][20] - The company remains bullish on Macau's long-term prospects, citing evolving consumer preferences and a dynamic market environment [65][66] - Management acknowledged the potential headwinds from the Encore Tower remodel but emphasized the importance of maintaining competitive rates [5] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with global cash and revolver availability of $4.6 billion as of September 30 [13] - Wynn Macau paid out approximately $125 million in dividends in Q3, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [14] - The company expects to spend $200 million-$250 million in total CAPEX for 2025 [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Las Vegas environment and expectations for growth in 2026? - Management noted that the summer business environment had improved, with a focus on rate rather than occupancy, leading to better results in Q3 and positive expectations for 2026 [19][20] Question: What are the dynamics in the UAE market regarding EBITDA scenarios? - Management discussed various factors affecting market size and share, emphasizing the absence of near-term competition and the focus on delivering a high-quality product [23][24] Question: How is the company addressing pricing pushback in Las Vegas? - Management stated that they have not seen pushback on pricing, as their customer base values the premium experience offered [28][29] Question: What is the outlook for Macau's competitive dynamics? - Management acknowledged the competitive nature of Macau but emphasized their focus on driving revenues and managing costs effectively [43][44] Question: How will the company allocate free cash flow in 2027? - Management indicated that capital returns and potential investments in the UAE land bank will be considered, depending on market conditions [92][93]

Core Insights - AO achieved revenue of DKK 1,465.2 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 10.5% increase compared to Q3 2024 [2][3] - The company reported an EBITDA of DKK 98.2 million, with an EBITDA margin of 6.7% [4] - EBT for the quarter was DKK 51.9 million, corresponding to a margin of 3.5% [5] Financial Performance - Net Revenue for Q3 2025 was DKK 1,465.2 million, up from DKK 1,326.1 million in Q3 2024 [2] - Gross Margin increased to DKK 341.3 million in Q3 2025 from DKK 303.1 million in Q3 2024, with a gross margin percentage of 23.3% [2] - Year-to-date revenue reached DKK 4,448.0 million, compared to DKK 3,878.9 million in the previous year [2] Growth Metrics - Organic revenue growth, adjusted for acquisitions, was 8.8% for the quarter [1] - The company continued to gain market share in the B2B segment, while the B2C segment experienced positive growth for the eighth consecutive quarter [3] Guidance for 2025 - Revenue for 2025 is now expected to be in the range of DKK 6,000–6,100 million, an increase from the previous guidance of DKK 5,950–6,100 million [6] - EBITDA guidance for 2025 is narrowed to DKK 420–440 million, while EBT is expected to be in the range of DKK 245–265 million [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q3 2025 increased approximately 9.6% to $1.021 billion from $931.5 million in Q3 2024 [11] - Gross profit increased 10% to $247.2 million for Q3 2025 compared to $224.7 million for Q3 2024 [12] - GAAP net income was $19.1 million or $0.44 per diluted share for Q3 2025, compared to net income of $14.1 million or $0.34 per diluted share for Q3 2024 [13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $65.1 million compared to $54.5 million for Q3 2024 [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Specialty sales were up 7.7% year-over-year, driven by unique placement growth of 5.3% and reported specialty case growth of 3.2% [6] - Center-of-the-plate pounds were approximately 1.1% lower than the prior year, but excluding the Texas Commodity Poultry Program attrition, growth was 9.6% higher than the prior year [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Unique customer growth was reported at 2.6% year-over-year, impacted by the Texas commodity poultry attrition and temporary conflict in the Middle East [7] - In the Middle East, the business continued to grow and exceed expectations despite temporary impacts [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company completed the acquisition of Italco Food Products, aiming to leverage its supply chain model to grow in urban and resort markets [9] - The company is focused on maintaining a diverse customer base and is cautiously optimistic about future growth despite economic uncertainties [50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for Q4 2025, noting strong holiday bookings and positive trends continuing into October [77] - The company has not seen a material impact from government shutdowns historically and remains optimistic about its customer base's resilience [27][28] Other Important Information - The company raised its full-year financial guidance for 2025, estimating net sales between $4.085 billion and $4.115 billion [15][16] - Total liquidity at the end of Q3 was $224.6 million, with net debt approximately $575.2 million [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the growth trends observed in Q3? - Management noted that July and August were stronger than expected, with good results continuing into September and October [23] Question: What impact do you foresee from the government shutdown? - Management indicated that they have not seen a significant impact from past government shutdowns [27][28] Question: How does the acquisition of Italco fit into your growth strategy? - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to enhance market presence in the Rockies and leverage existing capabilities [41][66] Question: How is the company managing inflation and beef costs? - Management acknowledged elevated protein prices but emphasized effective supply chain management to navigate inflation [54] Question: What is the outlook for digital penetration and its impact on customer engagement? - Digital tools are enhancing salesforce efficiency, with adoption rates over 60% [72][73]

Core Viewpoint - AT&T Inc. demonstrated strong subscriber growth in its wireless and internet divisions, but investor concerns regarding its profit strategy and earnings quality overshadowed these positive results [1] Subscriber Growth - AT&T reported impressive third-quarter results, exceeding consensus expectations for postpaid phone, fiber, and Internet Air subscriber additions [2][3] - The company is positioned to continue growth by expanding its 5G network and increasing prices for existing customers [1][4] Financial Performance - AT&T surpassed estimates for key financial metrics and reiterated its guidance for 2025 and beyond [3] - Analyst Michael J. Funk projected fiscal 2025 sales of $124.82 billion and EPS of $2.07 [5] Market Reaction - The market reacted negatively due to management's commentary suggesting a reduced focus on Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and a perception that the earnings beat was of "lower quality" due to lower depreciation guidance [3] Analyst Insights - Analyst Funk maintained a Buy rating on AT&T with a price forecast of $34, arguing that the recent stock sell-off misinterpreted the strong quarter [2] - Funk emphasized that the market is underestimating AT&T's core strengths and growth drivers, particularly in underpenetrated markets [4] Future Outlook - There is a significant opportunity for AT&T to add high-value subscribers and gain market share through service bundling and mid-band 5G spectrum rollout [4] - The company has a clear path to increase prices for its existing wireless and home internet customers [4]

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola's third-quarter results exceeded expectations, leading to a rise in stock price as investors responded positively to the company's performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - Coca-Cola's revenue increased by 5% year over year to $12.5 billion, driven by price increases and a 1% rise in unit case volume [3]. - The company's adjusted earnings improved by 6% to $0.82 per share, surpassing Wall Street's estimate of $0.78 [4]. - The comparable operating margin rose to 31.9% from 30.7% in the same quarter last year, indicating improved profitability [4]. Market Position and Strategy - Coca-Cola gained market share in the nonalcoholic ready-to-drink segment, with Coca-Cola Zero Sugar sales jumping 14% [3]. - Fuze Tea's retail value increased five times the industry average, while Powerade and Bodyarmor also gained share in the sports drink category [3]. - The company is adapting to changing consumer preferences by offering more affordable options, such as mini cans and smaller serving sizes [5]. Future Outlook - Management forecasts full-year organic revenue growth of 5% to 6% for 2025, with adjusted earnings growth expected to be 3% and 8% when excluding foreign currency effects [6]. - CEO James Quincey emphasized the company's flexibility in adapting plans and investing for growth despite a challenging environment [6].

Summary of China Consumer Staples 3Q25 Preview Industry Overview - The Consumer Staples sector in China is experiencing weak consumption trends in 3Q25, with easing policy headwinds but ongoing constraints on on-trade recovery [1][2] - Companies are prioritizing channel health and maintaining rational marketing investments due to weak demand, leading to volume weakness across sub-sectors [1][2] Key Insights - **Sales Growth Expectations**: An aggregated topline growth of +3%/+4% is anticipated for the Staples coverage (excluding Spirits), with beverages, pet foods, and snacks leading sales growth at 10-30% [2] - **Comparison to Previous Quarters**: This growth represents a deceleration from +5%/+7% in 2Q25, reflecting broader consumption weakness [2] - **Spirits Sector Outlook**: The spirits sector is expected to see a decline of -7%/-10% in sales/net profit, likely marking 3Q as the trough level due to stringent shipment controls [2] Company Performance - **Leaders Outperforming**: Companies like Eastroc, Nongfu, Haitian, CR Beer, Yankershop, and Weilong are expected to deliver resilient sales growth in 2H25 with higher margin visibility [2] - **Downgrade of Jonjee**: Jonjee has been downgraded to Sell from Neutral due to an 8-10% downward revision in earnings amid competitive pressure from Haitian [2] Market Trends - **September Sales Trends**: Beer and dairy sales trends improved sequentially ahead of Golden Week, while beverage and snacks showed wide divergence [2] - **Focus on Channel Health**: Companies are expected to focus on channel health and shipment control in preparation for a fresh start in 2026 [2] Future Outlook - **Investment Strategy for 2026**: Companies are expected to face diminishing cost benefits, necessitating a focus on competition and promotion strategies [8] - **Growth Drivers**: Selective snacks and beverage players are anticipated to drive topline growth through core SKU focus and POS expansion [8] - **Potential Recovery in Challenged Sectors**: Spirits valuations suggest a potential bottoming out, with recovery tied to gradual policy normalization expected in 2Q26 [8] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - **Valuation Outlook**: Investors are beginning to look into 2026/27E earnings, with pet food trading at an average of 28x/21x P/E compared to 38x for 2025 [8] - **Shareholder Return Support**: Companies like Tingyi and WH Group are noted for their attractive yields of 7-8% for 2025E/2026E [1] Conclusion - The Consumer Staples sector in China is navigating a challenging environment with weak demand and competitive pressures, but certain leaders are positioned to outperform. The focus on channel health and strategic investments will be crucial as the sector prepares for 2026.

Summary of China Beverages Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Beverages** industry, particularly the **ready-to-drink (RTD)** segment and competition from **freshly-made drinks (FMD)**. - The covered China Beverages names have outperformed the MSCI China Staples Index, with an average increase of approximately **20% YTD** compared to **17% YTD** for the index [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Outlook**: The company adopts a more selective stance in the beverage sector due to rising competition and cautious pricing trends expected into **2026**. Increased promotions and a shift towards larger pack sizes are anticipated by the end of **2025** [1][4]. - **Top Picks**: **Eastroc** is highlighted as a top pick due to its potential for market share gain and portfolio expansion, supported by strong channel execution and resilience against FMD competition [1][4]. - **Nongfu's Performance**: Nongfu is expected to recover market share in packaged water, with an estimated **80%+** market share in the sugar-free tea segment by the end of this year, up from **65%-70%** in **2024** [1][4]. - **Earnings Adjustments**: Earnings for **UPC** and **Tingyi** have been adjusted down by **3%-8%** and **1%-3%** respectively for **2025E-27E** due to slower sales growth trends. Conversely, Nongfu's earnings have been revised up by **0.2%-1.7%** for the same period [1][4]. Competitive Landscape - **FMD Competition**: The competition from FMD brands is intensifying, particularly in **3Q**. The impact on RTD beverages is more pronounced than previously expected, with a projected **3%** volume hit to bottled beverages for the full year **2025** [1][6]. - **Promotional Pressure**: Increased promotions have led to weakened pricing for RTD drinks, with a narrowing price gap between RTD and mass-market FMD [1][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: Historical brand disputes in the beverage industry have shown long-lasting negative impacts on sales and market share dynamics, providing opportunities for competitors to gain market share [1][7][13]. Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth Expectations**: Expected year-over-year earnings growth for **Nongfu/Eastroc/Tingyi/UPC** in **2H25** is **29%/35%/7%/17%** respectively, while **CR Beverage** is projected to see a **49%** earnings decline [1][4]. - **Cost Trends**: Anticipated **3%-6%** unit cost deflation in **2025** is expected to lead to **2.0-3.3ppt** gross profit margin (GPM) expansion. However, cost benefits are moderating, particularly in **PET/sugar** [1][24][25]. Additional Insights - **Wahaha Brand Dynamics**: The potential launch of a new brand "Wa Xiao Zong" by Hongsheng Group in **2026** could shift market dynamics in the bottled water segment, particularly affecting Wahaha's market share [1][16][17]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report includes scenario analyses predicting potential market share movements for **Nongfu** and **CR Beverage** based on the dynamics surrounding the Wahaha brand dispute [1][20][21]. Conclusion - The China Beverages industry is facing heightened competition and changing market dynamics, particularly from FMD brands. Companies like Eastroc and Nongfu are positioned to capitalize on these changes, while others like UPC and Tingyi may face challenges. The financial outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with adjustments made to earnings forecasts reflecting the competitive landscape.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for the quarter were $6.2 billion, up 0.6% compared to the previous year, and up 6.9% on a 16-week basis [18] - Earnings per share (EPS) decreased by 5.6% for the quarter, but would have increased by 8.7% when excluding an $80 million LIFO charge [6][7] - Net income for the quarter was $837 million, down 0.5% on a 16-week basis, while for the full year, net income was $2.5 billion, down 6.2% [29][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic commercial sales grew by 12.5% on a 16-week basis, while domestic DIY same-store sales increased by 2.2% [5][14] - International same-store sales were up 7.2% on a constant currency basis, but faced a 5-point currency headwind, resulting in a lower unadjusted comp of 2.1% [7][16] - The average weekly sales per commercial program were approximately $18,200, up 9% year-over-year [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic same-store sales grew by 4.8%, with a sales cadence showing positive trends throughout the quarter [10][18] - The company opened 90 net domestic stores and 51 international stores during the quarter, totaling 304 net new stores for the year, the most since 1996 [14][15] - The international store base now comprises over 13% of total stores, with plans for continued expansion [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue investing in customer service, product assortment, and supply chain improvements to drive long-term growth [16][17] - Plans for FY26 include opening 325 to 350 new stores in the Americas, with a focus on hubs and megahubs to enhance inventory availability [33][34] - The company is committed to maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation while returning cash to shareholders through buybacks [30][31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about sales growth in FY26, driven by strong DIY and commercial sales trends [15][34] - The company anticipates continued inflationary pressures but believes it can manage pricing effectively without significantly impacting demand [72] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining gross margins while expanding the commercial business [75] Other Important Information - The company invested approximately $1.4 billion in capital expenditures for growth initiatives and plans to invest a similar amount in the upcoming year [17] - The gross margin for the quarter was 51.5%, down 103 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to the LIFO charge [25] - Free cash flow generated for the quarter was $511 million, contributing to a total of $1.8 billion for FY2025 [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inflation expectations for the fiscal first quarter - Management expects inflation to be at least 3% and possibly higher, indicating a disciplined approach to pricing to cover costs [43][53] Question: Growth in discretionary categories - Management noted that discretionary categories have shown growth for the first time in a while, but the lower-end consumer remains under pressure [44][45] Question: LIFO charges outlook - Management anticipates LIFO charges of approximately $120 million in Q1, with potential pressure in subsequent quarters [50][51] Question: SG&A growth dynamics - SG&A growth is expected to remain elevated due to investments in new stores, with a plan to manage it in line with sales growth [54][55] Question: Growth opportunities in Mexico - Management sees significant growth potential in Mexico, with plans to accelerate store openings and expand market share [64][66]