Vi e w p o i n t | 14 Jan 2026 10:14:04 ET │ 23 pages Cross-Commodity Outlook We see silver continuing to outperform gold near term and rising to $100/oz vs gold rising to touch $5,000/oz. These price levels should also provide strong opportunities for producers and central banks to take insurance against downside from extremely high price levels. Meanwhile, our base case expectations for an improvement in growth sentiment and actual activity by 2H'26 should support sustained bull markets from current price ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices declined in early Asian trading due to expectations of a market surplus [1] Group 1 - The decline in oil prices is attributed to the anticipation of an oversupply in the market [1]

Aluminum and Alumina Market Update - The price of alumina has decreased from the highs at the end of 2024 due to resolved supply disruptions, stabilizing around $360 to $370 [3] - China has taken offline approximately 7 million to 10 million annual capacity in the second quarter, contributing to price stabilization [3] - The alumina market is expected to be in surplus for the second half of the year and into 2026, with new capacity coming online from Indonesia and China [3] - Delays in Indonesian smelting capacity are anticipated, which may further contribute to the surplus in the alumina market [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the lithium industry but indicates a bearish outlook on lithium prices and forecasts [1][2] Core Insights - The lithium market is experiencing a significant surplus, with an estimated surplus of around 6% of total supply for the year [1] - Citi Commodity Team has downgraded their price forecasts for lithium salts and spodumene (SC6) by an average of 13% for CY25, 27% for CY26, and 20% for CY27 [1] - Average selling prices (ASPs) for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) have shown a downward trend, with current prices at Rmb60.5k/t and Rmb59.2k/t respectively [2] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The lithium market is building large surpluses, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] - The price for SC6 spodumene has been downgraded to US$600/t from US$700/t [1] Production and Inventory - China's Li2CO3 production increased by 2% week-over-week to 18,462 tons [2] - Total inventory of Li2CO3 reached 134,901 tons, reflecting a 1% increase week-over-week [2] - Inventory levels for downstream players, smelters, and battery makers showed mixed trends, with downstream inventories decreasing by 1% [2]