簡單聊一下Apple/iPhone的記憶體漲價：1. 這篇新聞提到的1Q26 LPDDR漲價幅度跟我認知的接近，NAND Flash的漲價幅度略低。2. iPhone的記憶體報價現在是按季談，而非半年，所以iPhone的記憶體報價在2Q26還會再漲一次。目前看2Q26的QoQ漲價幅度約跟1Q26接近。3. 絕大部分非AI產業的品牌客戶，就算願意付錢也不見得能得到記憶體供應保證，所以Apple能談成這樣已經算很強了。4. 記憶體報價上漲會影響iPhone的毛利率。但Apple的策略是，趁記憶體市場混亂時，透過確定能拿到貨與吸收成本的優勢，提升市佔率，後續再用服務業務賺回來。5. 記憶體報價上漲導致成本上升的議題，應該是投資人與分析師對本週Apple法說的關注重點之一。Apple對這件事的說法，可能對其他產業的股價造成的波動，會遠高於對Apple自身與其供應鏈股價的影響。6. Apple目前對2H26新款iPhone 18的定價策略是「盡可能不漲價」，至少起始價不動，有利行銷宣傳。7. Apple已經意識到，在記憶體跟T-glass後，可能還會有其他零組件也會受到AI伺服器產業的影響而供應短缺。https://t ...

Core Insights - The report from TrendForce indicates that the surge in memory prices is significantly increasing the costs of consumer electronics, leading to higher retail prices and impacting the consumer market [2][5] - TrendForce has revised its global shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks, and game consoles for 2026, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook due to rising costs [2][3] Smartphone Market - The revised year-over-year growth for smartphones in 2025 is now 1.6%, up from a previous estimate of 0.5%, while the forecast for 2026 has been adjusted to a decline of 2.0% from a previous growth of 0.1% [3] Notebook Market - For notebooks, the year-over-year growth for 2025 is revised to 3.6% from 3.5%, but the 2026 forecast has been downgraded to a decline of 2.4% from a previous growth of 1.7% [3] Game Console Market - The game console market is facing a significant downturn, with the 2026 shipment forecast revised to a decline of 4.4% from a previous estimate of a 3.5% decline [2][3] - The cost of memory modules is projected to account for 21-23% of the total cost of game consoles in 2026, severely compressing hardware margins and affecting pricing strategies [5][6] - Major players like Sony and Microsoft are expected to see memory costs exceed 35% of their bill of materials (BOM) cost, which may force them to abandon traditional price reduction strategies and potentially increase prices in certain regions [6] Market Dynamics - The traditional growth model for game console manufacturers is being challenged by rising memory costs, which could lead to stagnation in global game console penetration if supply and demand do not improve [7] - Historical precedents show that supply chain issues, such as semiconductor shortages, have previously impacted console production and sales forecasts [7]