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人工智能供应链,甲骨文资本支出、OpenAI 专用集成电路(ASIC)、台湾半导体展-Asia-Pacific Technology -AI Supply Chain Oracle capex, OpenAI ASIC, SEMICON Taiwan
2025-09-17 01:51
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **AI semiconductor supply chain**, focusing on companies like **Oracle**, **Nvidia**, **Broadcom**, and **TSMC** [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Oracle's Revenue Backlog**: Oracle announced a significant revenue backlog, which positively impacted Nvidia and its supply chain stocks, including TSMC and KYEC. The company expects its fiscal year 2026 capital expenditures (CapEx) to be around **$35 billion**, primarily for revenue-generating equipment [2][11]. 2. **AI ASIC Demand**: Broadcom reported **$10 billion** in revenue from a fourth customer, identified as OpenAI, indicating strong demand for AI ASICs. This revenue is based on server racks, with less than 100% revenue capture noted [2][9]. 3. **TSMC's Moore's Law 2.0**: TSMC's Deputy Co-COO discussed the transition to Moore's Law 2.0, emphasizing the importance of system integration over mere chip scaling. This shift is expected to enhance the production timelines for Nvidia's Rubin GPU chip, projected to enter mass production in **2Q26** [3][20]. 4. **Cloud CapEx Growth**: The global cloud CapEx is expected to reach **$582 billion** in 2026, reflecting a **31% year-over-year growth**, which is significantly higher than the consensus estimate of **16%** [12][13]. 5. **AI Server CapEx**: The implied AI server CapEx is projected to grow by approximately **70% year-over-year** in 2026, driven by increased spending on short-lived assets [13]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Stargate Project**: A joint venture between OpenAI, Softbank, and Oracle aims to develop infrastructure for next-gen AI, with indications of strong engagement in the supply chain, particularly in server racks [9]. 2. **Chip Consumption**: The consumption of Blackwell chips is expected to reduce inventory risks in the AI semiconductor supply chain, with **28,000 GB200 NVL72 racks** translating to around **2 million units** of chip consumption [10]. 3. **Market Dynamics for KYEC**: KYEC's target price was raised from **NT$158 to NT$188** due to expected strong revenue growth from AI CapEx hikes and market share gains in ASIC and chip probing [71][72]. 4. **CPO Technology**: The adoption of Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology is anticipated to start production in **2H26**, with discussions on its coexistence with copper cables [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlighted a robust outlook for the AI semiconductor industry, driven by significant investments from major players like Oracle and Nvidia. The transition to Moore's Law 2.0 and the expected growth in cloud CapEx and AI server CapEx indicate a strong demand trajectory for AI-related technologies and infrastructure.