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东北证券:音乐生态巨头网易云音乐受益于行业快速扩容
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-07 07:09
Core Viewpoint - NetEase Cloud Music has significant user payment potential, with a current online music payment rate of 21.4%, compared to Spotify's 39%, indicating room for improvement in monetization strategies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.935 billion, 8.692 billion, and 9.585 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.684 billion, 2.215 billion, and 2.541 billion yuan respectively [1] - The company is projected to have an EPS of 12.32, 10.17, and 11.66 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with a PE ratio of 16 times in 2026 [1] - In 2023, the company turned profitable for the first time, with a gross margin recovery from -114.74% in 2018 to an expected 33.73% in 2024, marking a shift from growth through scale to value-driven monetization [1] Group 2: Industry Landscape - The global recorded music market is expected to reach 29.6 billion dollars in 2024, growing at 4.8% year-on-year, with streaming accounting for 69% of the market [2] - China is projected to grow at 9.6% in 2024, surpassing mature markets in the US and Europe, driven by enhanced copyright protection and local music innovation [2] - The competitive landscape in the online music sector shows Spotify leading globally with a 32% user share, while Tencent's platforms dominate domestically, with NetEase Cloud Music holding a 19% monthly active user share [2] Group 3: Strategic Advantages - The company differentiates itself through a community-driven music consumption model, focusing on social experiences rather than traditional tool-based platforms [1] - The content strategy includes a diverse range of genres and a significant number of independent artists, with 774,000 independent musicians and 4.4 million original songs nurtured through initiatives like the "Stone Plan" and "Cloud Ladder Plan" [3] - The company has established a high-engagement ecosystem, with 1.2 billion music reviews and an average daily listening time of 78.9 minutes per user, leading the industry in user stickiness [3]