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NPU洗牌潮,即将到来
半导体行业观察· 2025-07-11 00:58
Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between natural population cycles and the business cycles in the semiconductor and IP industry, highlighting the inevitable rise and fall of companies in response to market opportunities and resource limitations [1][2]. Historical Turbulence in the IP Industry - Over the past 25 years, the emergence of new interface standards and design trends has led to a surge of IP suppliers and chip startups attempting to capture market share [3]. - In the late 2000s, the number of CPU and DSP architecture companies drastically decreased from over 40 to fewer than 10 due to market saturation and resource scarcity [6]. Current Landscape of NPU - The NPU architecture sector is experiencing a similar cycle as seen with CPU/DSP, driven by the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and the influx of investment from 2018 to 2024 [8]. - The emergence of new AI models has led to the obsolescence of many fixed-function accelerators, resulting in a decline in the number of AI chip startups [11]. Future of NPU Companies - The market cannot sustain over 50 NPU companies, and it is expected that the number will shrink to 5 to 10 viable competitors by 2025 [13]. - Successful NPU companies will need to possess excellent software toolchains, facilitate easy programming of new AI models, and attract ongoing investment [13].