以下文章来源于鸣鹤睿思 ，作者Jensen 鸣鹤睿思 . 投研笔记，聚焦趋势，全球配置，研究创造价值。重点研究领域：科技、生物医药。欢迎交流，VX： Kodiak-Bear-001 上周五到本周三，不是只有博通（Broadcom）暴跌，而是一整片"AI相关股票"在一起下沉。光模块、 交换机、电源、存储，这些"逻辑挺硬"的名字，都在同一时间段里被按下去。 如果只是把它理解成"情绪波动"或者"高位回调"，其实是低估了这次事件的信息密度。真正有价值的问 题不是"为什么博通跌了"，而是—— 博通和甲骨文的最新财报，到底揭示了AI基础设施这门生意正在 发生怎样的变化？而这种变化，对我们关注的公司意味着什么？ 先从博通说起。 博通这次财报最重要的信息，并不是AI需求变弱，相反，需求强得惊人。公司披露，未来18个月在手 的AI相关订单已经超过730亿美元，涵盖定制加速器（XPU）、以太网交换芯片、DSP、激光器等一整 套AI数据中心核心部件。Tomahawk 6 102Tbps交换芯片的预订速度，是博通历史上最快的之一。仅 从"量"来看，AI这条曲线没有任何放缓迹象。 但市场真正开始警惕的，是博通自己在电话会里反复强调的一 ...

上周，博通(AVGO.US)和甲骨文(ORCL.US)发布财报后遭遇股价惊魂一日，博通接连暴跌，两日内失血 17%。上周五，瑞银与博通(AVGO.US)管理团队举行了线下投资者会议，结合会议沟通内容，该行认为 上周五的市场反应属于过度反应。基于管理层对2026财年AI半导体业务收入的相关表述，该行上调了 业绩预期，预计2026财年AI半导体收入将超600亿美元，同比增长近3倍，并将目标价由472美元上调至 475美元。 鉴于当日公司股价大幅回调，且本季度业绩公布后投资者疑问集中爆发，该行认为该股已成为市场普遍 看好的多头标的。 会议核心要点如下： 1、财报电话会议中，公司披露AI业务订单积压达730亿美元，覆盖周期18个月;但管理层在会议中明确 表示，该数据极为保守，实际交付周期将接近12个月。 2、第四财季(截至10月)公司总订单积压环比增长50%，其中AI半导体业务订单积压翻倍;若剔除 Anthropic新增的110亿美元订单，剩余订单积压仍增加200-250亿美元，主要来自谷歌和Meta，暂未包含 OpenAI的订单。 3、博通认为，因电源组件的准备进度，向Anthropic交付的210亿美元机架订单可 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周，博通(AVGO.US)和甲骨文(ORCL.US)发布财报后遭遇股价惊魂一日，博通接 连暴跌，两日内失血17%。上周五，瑞银与博通(AVGO.US)管理团队举行了线下投资者会议，结合会议 沟通内容，该行认为上周五的市场反应属于过度反应。基于管理层对2026财年AI半导体业务收入的相 关表述，该行上调了业绩预期，预计2026财年AI半导体收入将超600亿美元，同比增长近3倍，并将目 标价由472美元上调至475美元。 鉴于当日公司股价大幅回调，且本季度业绩公布后投资者疑问集中爆发，该行认为该股已成为市场普遍 看好的多头标的。 会议核心要点如下： 1、财报电话会议中，公司披露AI业务订单积压达730亿美元，覆盖周期18个月;但管理层在会议中明确 表示，该数据极为保守，实际交付周期将接近12个月。 2、第四财季(截至10月)公司总订单积压环比增长50%，其中AI半导体业务订单积压翻倍;若剔除 Anthropic新增的110亿美元订单，剩余订单积压仍增加200-250亿美元，主要来自谷歌和Meta，暂未包含 OpenAI的订单。 3、博通认为，因电源组件的准备进度，向Anthropic交付的2 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Company: Broadcom Financial Performance - Broadcom reported Q4 FY2025 revenue of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations [4] - AI-related revenue reached $6.5 billion, accounting for 59% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 76% [4] - Non-GAAP net profit was $9.7 billion, with a GAAP EPS of $1.95, surpassing market forecasts [4] - Adjusted gross margin was 68%, with semiconductor solutions contributing 61% and infrastructure software 39% to total revenue [4] AI Backlog and Future Projections - Broadcom has an AI backlog of $73 billion, with expectations for delivery within 18 months, although the delivery pace is non-linear [4][6] - The company anticipates significant AI revenue contributions in FY2026, with a potential underestimation if calculated linearly [4] - Anthropic, Broadcom's fourth-largest customer, placed an additional order for TPU cabinets worth $11 billion, contributing over $20 billion in total [4] - Broadcom expects to secure a $1 billion order from a fifth customer, likely SoftBank, with significant financial performance anticipated from collaborations with OpenAI starting in 2027 [6] AI Network Developments - Broadcom's AI switch chip backlog exceeds $10 billion, with positive demand outlook for DSP and optical chips, aligning with trends in the A-share market [7][8] - The company projects Q1 FY2026 revenue of $19.1 billion, above market consensus of $18.5 billion, with AI revenue expected to reach $8.2 billion, a 100% year-over-year increase [8] Company: Google (TPU Architecture) Hardware Developments - Google’s TPU architecture has undergone significant evolution, with the latest TPU V7 achieving 4,614 TFLOPS per chip and supporting 9,216 chip clusters [9] - The new TPU cabinet hardware costs approximately $800,000, with over 60% attributed to AI chips [14] - The design improvements include full liquid cooling architecture and high-voltage DC power systems for enhanced safety and efficiency [11] Market Demand Projections - Google is expected to spend $2-3 billion on PCB procurement in 2026, increasing to $4 billion by 2027 [15] - Liquid cooling market demand is projected to reach $2 billion in 2026 and $6 billion by 2027, with the overall AI liquid cooling market expected to grow to $10 billion in 2026 and $20 billion in 2027 [15] - The power chip market is anticipated to reach nearly $10 billion in 2026, growing to $18 billion by 2027 [16] Beneficiaries in the Market - Key beneficiaries in the PCB market include companies like Shennan Circuits and Shenghong Technology, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand in the AI sector [17] Industry Insights - Recent volatility in the U.S. tech stock market, particularly in AI-related stocks, is attributed to performance interpretations and market style shifts, alongside macroeconomic factors [2] - The market is experiencing a rotation towards defensive sectors, reflecting profit-taking sentiments in previously strong tech stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) reported record revenue of $18.015 billion for FY2025 Q4, driven by strong performance in AI semiconductor and VMware businesses, with a year-over-year growth of 28% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 13% [3][4] Financial Performance - FY2025 Q4 revenue reached a historical high of $18.015 billion, exceeding previous guidance of approximately $17.4 billion, with a gross margin of 77.9%, slightly above the guidance of 77.7% [3][4] - The company has an unprecedented backlog of $162 billion in unfulfilled orders, with AI business orders significantly outpacing non-AI orders [3][4] - The semiconductor segment generated $11.072 billion in revenue, accounting for 61% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 35% and an operating profit margin of 59% [4][10] AI Business Growth - AI revenue reached $6.5 billion, marking a 74% year-over-year increase, continuing a trend of over 10 consecutive quarters of growth [4][10] - The company expects AI revenue to double year-over-year to $8.2 billion in FY26 Q1, driven by strong demand and a backlog of over $73 billion in AI orders [5][6][10] Software Segment Performance - Infrastructure software revenue was $6.943 billion, representing 39% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 19%, exceeding previous expectations [4][13] - The gross margin for the infrastructure software segment was 93%, reflecting strong performance and successful integration of VMware [4][13] Future Guidance - For FY26 Q1, the company projects revenue of approximately $19.1 billion, a year-over-year increase of 28%, with semiconductor revenue expected to reach $12.3 billion, a 50% increase [5][17] - The company anticipates continued acceleration in customer AI spending, with a significant portion of the backlog expected to be fulfilled within the next 18 months [6][17] Operational Insights - The company reported a free cash flow of $7.5 billion for the quarter, representing 41% of revenue, with a focus on maintaining strict inventory management [15][22] - Broadcom's cash and cash equivalents stood at $16.2 billion, with total debt of $67.1 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [15][22] Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing robust demand for AI-related products, with significant orders from major clients, including a recent $11 billion order from Anthropic [6][11] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with customers increasingly exploring custom AI accelerators, although Broadcom remains confident in its market position [18][21]

Core Viewpoint - Tai Long Co., Ltd. has provided details on its semiconductor distribution products, indicating a diverse portfolio that includes various components essential for modern electronics [1]. Group 1: Product Offerings - The company’s semiconductor distribution products include RF front-end, communication modules, SOC, DSP, geomagnetic sensors, CMOS image sensors, audio amplifiers, power management chips, and memory [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformation of Chinese brands as they expand internationally, moving from a focus on manufacturing to building their own brands and engaging directly with global consumers [3][10][20]. Group 1: Brand Evolution - Chinese brands are no longer satisfied with being part of the manufacturing chain; they aim to engage directly with consumers globally [3][10]. - The shift from "manufacturing" to "branding" represents a significant change in strategy for many companies, particularly among the new generation of leaders [3][8]. Group 2: Case Study - Qualfort - Qualfort, a clothing brand, exemplifies this transition by moving from a traditional OEM model to establishing its own brand, emphasizing the importance of advertising as a long-term asset rather than a mere expense [5][7]. - The brand utilized Amazon's advertising tools to enhance its visibility and consumer engagement, transitioning from product visibility to brand recall [7][19]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The article highlights the challenges faced by brands in adapting their products and marketing strategies to diverse international markets, emphasizing the need for localization [11][20]. - As more brands establish a foothold in global markets, the focus shifts to becoming truly global brands, which involves navigating cultural differences and market expectations [10][11]. Group 4: Advertising and Brand Building - The role of advertising is redefined as a tool for building long-term relationships with consumers rather than just driving immediate sales [19][20]. - Amazon's advertising ecosystem is presented as a comprehensive tool for brand building, allowing brands to engage with consumers across multiple touchpoints [19][21]. Group 5: Future Directions - The article concludes that the journey for Chinese brands is far from over; the next challenge is to be chosen and loved by consumers in various cultural contexts [20][21]. - The upcoming "Waterman Star Program" aims to provide ongoing insights into the experiences of Chinese brands as they navigate international markets [20][21].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The optical communication industry is performing strongly, with many companies exceeding expectations and maintaining low valuation levels, projected to be within 20 times by 2026 [1][4] - New technologies such as CPO, OCS, OOL, silicon photonics, and thin-film filters are expected to drive industry growth [1][4] - The upcoming Shenzhen Optical Expo is anticipated to further stimulate market interest in the optical communication sector [1][4] Company Performance - Broadcom reported a 63% year-over-year increase in AI-related revenue, reaching $5.2 billion, and secured a $10 billion custom AI chip order from its fourth large-scale customer [1][6] - The leading company in the high-speed copper cable (AEC) sector, Crypto, reported Q1 FY26 revenue exceeding $220 million, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of over 30% and a year-over-year net profit increase of over 70% [3][14] Market Trends - North American capital expenditures are significantly increasing, particularly in AI infrastructure, with plans to invest $17 trillion over the next few years [1][7] - AI-related revenue growth is expected to surpass capital expenditure growth, with projections for 2025 indicating total revenue could reach between $100 billion and $200 billion [1][8] Competitive Landscape - The communication industry is characterized by a stable competitive landscape, with leading companies holding significant market shares and high information advantages [10] - Second-tier companies have opportunities for rapid growth by securing new customers or entering new markets, with some lesser-known companies potentially achieving significant progress [10][11] Future Outlook - The outlook for the optical communication market is optimistic, with companies actively expanding production and securing materials to meet explosive demand growth [5][9] - The AEC industry is expected to continue its rapid growth, with new hyper-scale customers anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue [14][16] Emerging Technologies - The application of silicon carbide (SiC) materials in the AI industry is gaining traction, with potential shifts in chip manufacturing processes expected by 2027 [15] - The optical fiber segment within the optical supply chain is particularly noteworthy, with increasing demand in the financial sector and AI applications [12] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the optical communication and AI sectors is positive, with strong growth prospects driven by technological advancements and increasing capital investments. The upcoming events and market dynamics are likely to create further investment opportunities.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $25.7 million, down 10% from $28.4 million in Q2 2024 [15] - Licensing and related revenue totaled $15 million, representing 59% of total revenue, reflecting a 13% year-over-year decline [15][16] - Royalty revenue for the quarter was $10.7 million, accounting for 41% of total revenues, with a 16% sequential increase but a 5% year-over-year decrease [17][18] - GAAP net loss for Q2 was $3.7 million, with a diluted loss per share of $0.15, compared to a net loss of $0.3 million and diluted loss per share of $0.01 in the same period last year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company secured 13 license agreements, including five first-time customers and four OEM customers, indicating strong licensing execution [4] - Royalty revenue saw a sequential growth of 16%, driven by increased shipments from consumer and smartphone customers [11] - Consumer IoT shipments were up 21% sequentially and 60% year-over-year, reflecting strong demand [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shipments by CEVA's licensees during Q2 2025 were 488 million units, up 16% sequentially and 6% year-over-year [20] - Cellular IoT shipments reached an all-time record high at 66 million units, up 66% year-over-year [21] - WiFi shipments were 62 million units, up 80% from 35 million units a year ago, with WiFi 6 shipments up 113% year-over-year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its NPU business into infrastructure and data center markets, indicating a strategic shift towards AI integration [9][13] - CEVA is focused on deepening relationships through multiple IP agreements, enhancing product capabilities and increasing royalty per device [6][10] - The company views the milestone of over 20 billion devices shipped as a launchpad for future growth in the Smart Edge Era [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the licensing pipeline and potential deal flow, particularly around Edge AI prospects [23] - The company anticipates stronger royalty revenue in the second half of the year due to seasonality and new product deployments [23][24] - Management reiterated confidence in achieving a double-digit percentage increase in non-GAAP net income and fully diluted non-GAAP EPS relative to 2024 [25] Other Important Information - Total GAAP operating expenses for Q2 were $26.6 million, above guidance due to higher employee-related benefits [18] - The company repurchased 300,000 shares for approximately $6.2 million during the quarter [22] - CEVA's cash and cash equivalents were approximately $157 million as of June [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will increased licensing in NPUs lead to higher royalty revenues? - Management confirmed that higher complexity in technology will lead to better economics and a meaningful increase in royalty per unit as these devices are deployed [28][29] Question: What is the expected timing for royalties from more complex designs? - Management indicated that the time from licensing to royalty reporting is typically 18 to 24 months, but may be shorter for consumer devices due to rapid market needs [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for flagship smartphone customers in 2026? - Management did not provide specific guidance for 2026 but expressed confidence in technology penetration and expected strong performance in the second half of the year [39][40] Question: What is the scalability of CEVA's AI offerings? - Management highlighted the scalability of their NPU solutions and the comprehensive software stack provided to customers, which supports various applications including edge and cloud inference [42][44] Question: What contributed to the decline in Bluetooth shipments this quarter? - Management noted that the decline was not due to specific issues but expected good sequential growth in the second half of the year as new Bluetooth technologies are adopted [57][58]

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global semiconductor industry, focusing on sales trends, product performance, and market dynamics as of May 2025 [1][2][26]. Key Points Sales Performance - Total semiconductor sales increased by **18.2% YoY** in May, following a **22.8% increase** in April [2][26]. - Month-over-month (MoM) sales rose by **9.5%**, slightly above the historical average of **8.2%** for May [3][33]. - Memory sales grew by **17.5% YoY**, while non-memory sales increased by **18.5% YoY** [2][26]. Product Group Performance - **MPU** sales increased by **6.0% MoM** (typical: 4.5%), **DRAM** by **48.4% MoM** (typical: 42.4%), and **NAND** by **37.4% MoM** (typical: 22.6%) [4][38]. - Other product groups underperformed compared to typical patterns, including: - **Discretes**: 1.1% (typical: 2.8%) - **Optoelectronics**: -21.6% (typical: -2.6%) - **Sensors & Actuators**: -0.5% (typical: 3.3%) [4][38]. Geographic Sales Trends - YoY sales increased in all regions except Japan, which saw a **5.4% decline** [41]. - MoM sales growth was observed in all regions except Japan, with notable increases of **14.0% in the Americas** and **9.0% in China** [41][42]. Unit Shipments and ASPs - Total unit shipments were relatively flat, down **0.2% MoM**, while average selling prices (ASPs) rose by **9.8% MoM** [48][51]. - ASPs increased for several product groups, including: - **Memory**: 12.2% - **Analog App Specific**: 6.3% - **Logic**: 3.9% [53][54]. Future Outlook - The data from April and May suggests a potential rebound in bit shipments for DRAM and NAND in 2QCY25, with predictions of **8.2% QoQ growth for DRAM** and **16% QoQ growth for NAND** [55][56]. - ASP growth for DRAM is expected to improve, while NAND ASPs may decline further [55][57]. Investment Implications - **ADI**: Market-Perform, target price $220.00, with valuations needing to catch up to earnings growth [10]. - **AMD**: Market-Perform, target price $95.00, facing high AI expectations but weak core business segments [10]. - **AVGO**: Outperform, target price $295.00, with strong AI trajectory and margins [10]. - **INTC**: Market-Perform, target price $21.00, facing significant operational challenges [11]. - **NVDA**: Outperform, target price $185.00, with substantial datacenter growth potential [12]. - **QCOM**: Outperform, target price $185.00, with a strong product portfolio despite headwinds [13]. Additional Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with certain segments showing strong growth while others lag behind typical seasonal patterns [3][4][38]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued growth driven by demand in various sectors, particularly in AI and data centers [10][12].