Danske Bank Q4 2025 Pre-Close Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Danske Bank (OTCPK:DNKE.Y) - **Date of Call**: January 08, 2026 Key Points Macroeconomic Environment - Euro area growth prospects for 2025 are better than expected despite tariff announcements and geopolitical uncertainty [2] - Nordic economies are expected to improve in 2026, driven by rising real incomes and investments [2] - Danish economy shows solid Q4 performance with low unemployment and growing real wages, but low consumer confidence may dampen spending [3] Financial Performance - **Net Interest Income (NII)**: A non-recurring benefit of approximately DKK 0.2 billion is expected to be booked in Q4 due to tax assessments [3] - **Central Bank Policy Rates**: ECB expected to maintain a policy rate of 2% in 2026; Riksbanken and Norway's bank also expected to keep rates unchanged [4] - **Lending Volumes**: Overall credit demand remained stable in Q4, with a day effect estimated at DKK 65-DKK 70 million [4] Currency and Funding - Currency fluctuations noted: Swedish krona appreciated by 2% against Danish krona; Norwegian krona depreciated by 1% [5] - Wholesale funding issuance reached DKK 90 billion, exceeding the full-year plan of DKK 60 billion-DKK 80 billion [5] Fee Income and Trading - Fee income diversified, benefiting from healthy corporate activity; performance fees in Q4 2024 were DKK 0.7 billion [7] - Trading income expected to be lower due to typical year-end customer activity [8] Insurance Activities - A net negative P&L effect of around DKK 200 million expected in Q4 due to model calibration for health and accident claims [9] - Full-year income expectations for normalized net insurance income revised below guidance of DKK 1.4 billion-DKK 1.6 billion [9] Costs and Impairments - Total costs for the year expected to be just shy of DKK 26 billion; loan impairment guidance remains at no more than DKK 600 million [10] Capital and Risk Management - Temporary CT1 reduction of around 40 basis points expected to continue reflecting in Q4 numbers [11] - Market risk remains subject to volatility; growing lending volumes may increase credit risk [12] Regulatory and Political Environment - Discussions around potential fee gaps and overcharging by banks noted, especially in light of upcoming elections in 2026 [17][18] - No immediate decisions on government proposals regarding CRE risk rates in Denmark [15] Upcoming Events - Silent period begins on January 15; annual report to be published on February 5, 2026 [13] Additional Insights - Pre-funding for 2026 wholesale funding is a standard procedure to capitalize on market opportunities [19]

PresentationRune HellandHead of Investor Relations Good afternoon, and welcome to DNB's pre-close call for the fourth quarter. Just to remind you, the reason for this call is to remind you of what we have already shared with the market and some relevant public data, which could possibly affect the fourth quarter results. There will be no new information during this call, and this script for the call will be published on our IR website. I will start going through the NII and capital, and Anna will go through ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs analyst Ryan Nash raised the price target on Enact Holdings (ACT) to $45 from $41 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares [1] - Regional banks underperformed the market by 200-300 basis points in 2025 due to macro concerns and credit worries, although stocks rallied 13% late in the year [1] - For 2026, factors such as solid loan growth, net interest income momentum, positive operating leverage, and improving returns are expected to support continued multi-year fundamental improvement, with credit risk identified as the main wildcard [1]

Goldman Sachs raised the firm’s price target on First Horizon (FHN) to $27 from $24 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Regional banks underperformed the market by 200-300 basis points in 2025, weighed by macro concerns and credit worries, though stocks rallied 13% late in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Looking to 2026, solid loan growth, net interest income momentum, positive operating leverage, and improving returns support continued multi-year fundamental improvement, wi ...

Group 1 - The BDC segment is facing challenges due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, leading to a decrease in net interest income for many non-bank lenders [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of selecting the best assets to navigate the current market conditions [1] - The goal is to identify profitable and undervalued investment opportunities primarily in the U.S. market to create a high-yield, balanced portfolio [1]

Key Takeaways BOKF shares rose 17.9% in six months, outperforming the industry and its close peers.Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, reflecting analyst optimism.Strong loan growth, improving asset quality and strategic expansions support BOKF's growth outlook.Over the past six months, shares of BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) have rallied 17.9% compared with the industry’s growth of 3%. The stock also outperformed its peers, First Horizon Corporation (FHN) and Cullen/Frost Bank ...

Core Insights - KeyCorp (KEY) has experienced a volatile trend in net interest income (NII), with increases in 2020, 2021, and 2022, followed by declines in 2023 and 2024, but a rebound in the first nine months of 2025 due to lower deposit costs and asset repricing [1][11] Group 1: Net Interest Income Trends - In 2025, KeyCorp's NII is expected to rise by 22% year over year, with fourth-quarter NII projected to grow by 13% or more [5][11] - The net interest margin (NIM) is anticipated to be between 2.75% and 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with expectations to exceed 3% by the end of 2026 [5][11] - The decline in interest rates has led to a narrowing of the spread between earnings and costs, impacting NII, but lower funding costs and increased loan volumes are expected to support NII growth [2][3] Group 2: Peer Comparison - Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) has shown a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% in NII, with a 6.2% year-over-year increase in the first nine months of 2025 [7] - U.S. Bancorp (USB) has also demonstrated consistent NII growth, with a five-year CAGR of 4.4% and a 2% increase in NII year over year in the first nine months of 2025 [8] Group 3: Market Performance - KeyCorp's shares have increased by 16% over the past six months, slightly underperforming the industry growth of 17.4% [10]

This is Richard Ramston. He basically runs this conference. Uh it's been going on for 36 years.I know there's record attendance. Uh and you had that conversation yesterday with Maryanne Lake, the CEO of Consumer Community Banking, which saw JP Morgan's stock drop as a result of the surprising guidance she gave on expenses. Um she of course said the biggest drivers were kind of growth related.Activity levels were higher. They were making strategic investments. What signal was the market sending here in its r ...

Core Insights - The article compares First Horizon Corporation (FHN) and BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) as two banks with distinct growth strategies, risk management, and customer engagement approaches [1] Group 1: First Horizon Corporation (FHN) - FHN has shown consistent growth in loans and deposits, indicating a strong business model and stable core markets [2] - Management expects continued growth in the commercial and industrial portfolio, mortgage-warehouse activity, and consumer lending demand [2] - Recent quarterly results show loan expansion across key categories and improved deposit strength due to promotional offerings and customer engagement [2] - FHN's net interest income (NII) has been improving, with expectations for further enhancement as loan demand increases and funding costs stabilize [3] - As of September 30, 2025, FHN held $2.1 billion in cash and interest-bearing deposits, with short-term borrowings of $4.3 billion and term borrowings of $1.3 billion [3] - FHN's revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 imply year-over-year growth of 5.6% and 3.2%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 18.7% and 6.1% for the same years [10] - FHN's stock has gained 10.3% over the past year, outperforming the industry, which lost 5.4% [12] - FHN trades at a lower forward P/E of 11.69X compared to the industry average of 12.70X, indicating a more attractive valuation [16] - FHN has a dividend yield of 2.64%, having raised its quarterly dividend by 7% in January 2020 [19] Group 2: BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF) - BOKF has a balanced outlook with consistent loan and deposit expansion and favorable margin trends [4] - The company targets a year-over-year loan growth of 5-7% for 2025, focusing on diversifying its loan portfolio [4] - BOKF's NII is on an upward trend, expected to reach $1.33–$1.35 billion for 2025, up from $1.2 billion in 2024 [5] - Strategic market expansions, such as entering the San Antonio market and opening an office in Memphis, are enhancing BOKF's growth profile [6] - As of September 30, 2025, BOKF had total debt of $4.2 billion, with cash and equivalents totaling $1.4 billion, indicating a potentially unmanageable debt level [7] - BOKF's revenue estimates for 2025 and 2026 suggest year-over-year increases of 6.9% and 5.5%, respectively, with earnings expected to rise by 0.8% and 7.7% [11] - BOKF's stock has lost 1.1% over the past year, contrasting with FHN's performance [12] - BOKF trades at a higher forward P/E of 13.09X, reflecting a premium valuation compared to FHN [16] - BOKF has a dividend yield of 2.16%, having raised its quarterly dividend by 3.6% in October 2024 [19] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - FHN presents a more favorable upside profile due to steadier loan momentum, improving deposit stability, and a clearer runway for NII expansion [21] - BOKF's higher valuation, slower earnings growth outlook, and heavier debt load limit its relative appeal compared to FHN [22] - Both banks currently carry a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [22]

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management reported third-quarter earnings that surpassed estimates, but experienced a decline in book value year-over-year, raising questions about future performance and market trends [2][5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings available for distribution per average share were 73 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents and up from 66 cents in the same quarter last year [2]. - Net interest income (NII) was $275.8 million, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 38.3%, compared to $13.4 million in the prior-year quarter [3]. - The average yield on interest-earning assets improved to 5.40%, up from 5.16% in the previous year [4]. - The net interest spread increased to 1.50% from 1.32% year-over-year, while the net interest margin rose to 1.70% from 1.52% [4]. Asset and Capital Metrics - Total assets at the end of the third quarter were $125.9 billion, reflecting a 12.2% increase from the prior quarter [3]. - Book value per share (BVPS) decreased to $19.25 from $19.54 in the prior-year quarter [5]. - The economic capital ratio improved to 14.8%, up from 14.6% year-over-year [5]. - Economic leverage remained stable at 5.7X as of September 30, 2025 [5]. Returns and Estimates - The annualized return on average equity was 14.7%, an increase from 12.9% in the prior-year quarter [6]. - Estimates for the stock have been trending downward over the past month, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [7][10]. Stock Performance and Outlook - Annaly has a poor Growth Score of F and a Momentum Score of D, with an aggregate VGM Score of F, placing it in the bottom 40% for value investors [8]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [10].