Core Viewpoint - M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is expected to report year-over-year increases in quarterly revenues and earnings for Q2 2025, despite challenges such as a fall in loan balance and rising expenses in the previous quarter [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The consensus estimate for MTB's Q2 2025 earnings is $4.03 per share, reflecting a 6.3% increase from the previous year [13]. - The consensus estimate for revenues is $2.39 billion, indicating a 3.6% rise from the prior-year reported level [13]. - MTB's management anticipates a modest rise in average loans for Q2 2025, contributing to the growth of average interest-earning assets, which is estimated at $191.8 billion, a 1.4% increase from the prior quarter [4]. Group 2: Net Interest Income (NII) and Fee Income - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (on a tax-equivalent basis) is projected at $1.75 billion, representing a 3.1% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - Management expects higher average total deposits in Q2 2025, which is likely to enhance revenues from service charges on deposit accounts, with a consensus estimate of $135.9 million, a 2.2% rise from the prior quarter [6]. - Mortgage banking fees are expected to improve, with the consensus estimate pegged at $128 million, indicating an 8.5% rise from the previous quarter [8]. Group 3: Expense Management - MTB's management projects a sequential decline in total expenses for Q2 2025, primarily due to lower seasonal compensation costs, with total expenses estimated at $1.37 billion, reflecting a 3.4% decrease [11]. - Despite pressures on NII and concerns regarding expenses, the company is expected to post higher earnings and revenues, supported by mortgage and deposit fees [10]. Group 4: Earnings Surprise Potential - The company has surpassed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average negative earnings surprise of 6.67% [2]. - The Earnings ESP for MTB is +0.12%, indicating a favorable outlook for beating estimates this time [12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) [1]. Core Insights - Revenue and profit growth are expected to accelerate in the remaining quarters of 2025, with ambitious targets set for full-year growth [3]. - The net interest margin (NIM) change in 2025 is anticipated to outperform peers [3]. - Loan growth in 2025 is projected to exceed Rmb 370 billion recorded in 2024 [3]. - Positive growth in mortgage loans is expected for the full year, despite a slower pace compared to previous quarters [3]. - Non-interest income is targeted to achieve positive growth in 2025 [3]. - The company aims to control credit costs while maintaining a stable or higher non-performing loan (NPL) coverage ratio with a decline in the NPL ratio [3]. - A 30% dividend payout ratio is expected to be maintained [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved 1%+ revenue and profit growth in 1Q25 and is confident in accelerating growth for the remaining quarters of 2025 [11]. - The ambitious targets for revenue and profit growth in 2025 are set despite a high base and weak bond market performance [11]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) - NIM saw marginal improvement in 1Q25, with a limited year-over-year decline, outperforming peers [7]. - The NIM is expected to remain stable in 2Q25 and outperform peers throughout 2025 [7]. - Factors contributing to NIM improvement include accelerated loan growth and optimized liability structure [7]. Loans - Loan growth in 2025 is expected to exceed Rmb 370 billion, with a balanced growth pace throughout the year [7]. - New loan growth in 1Q25 was Rmb 250 billion, significantly faster than peers [7]. - The focus will be on five key areas: technology finance, supply chain finance, inclusive finance, cross-border finance, and wealth management [7]. Mortgages - Mortgage loans are expected to achieve positive growth in 2025, particularly in tier 1 and 2 cities [7]. - Both 1Q25 and 2Q25 saw positive mortgage growth, although less significant than in 4Q24 [7]. - The mortgage NPL ratio increased slightly in 1Q25 but remains under control [7]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income is targeted for positive growth in 2025, with future growth drivers identified [11]. - Fee income growth was negative in 1Q25 due to a decline in corporate underwriting income, while agency sales and custody income grew [11]. - Positive investment income growth in 1Q25 was attributed to opportunistic bond investment gains and growth in precious metals and FX derivatives trading income [11]. Asset Quality - The company aims to achieve a decline in the NPL ratio while maintaining a stable or higher NPL coverage ratio [11]. - The main asset quality risk lies in retail, with the NPL ratio for developer loans decreasing quarter-over-quarter in 1Q25 [11].