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全市场都在交易Capex
远川投资评论· 2025-09-16 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in capital expenditures (Capex) among major technology companies, driven by the AI revolution, and how this trend is reshaping the industry landscape and investment dynamics [2][5][14]. Group 1: Oracle's Performance and Market Reaction - Oracle announced a staggering RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations) of over $450 billion, leading to a market capitalization surge from $700 billion to $970 billion, marking a significant increase in value [2]. - Larry Ellison's personal wealth increased by $100 billion, surpassing Elon Musk to become the world's richest person [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their Capex, with Oracle raising its guidance from $25 billion to $35 billion for the fiscal year, resulting in a market value increase of over $200 billion [3]. - Alibaba announced a plan to invest over 380 billion RMB in AI and cloud computing over the next three years, showcasing the competitive landscape in capital spending [5]. Group 3: Impact on Industry and Supply Chain - The rise in Capex is benefiting companies in the supply chain, similar to past trends in the real estate sector where increased construction led to higher demand for materials [7]. - Companies like Cambricon and Shenghong Technology have reported significant revenue growth, with Cambricon's revenue increasing by 43 times and Shenghong's net profit growing by 366.89% [10]. Group 4: AI Capital Expenditure as a Strategic Move - The increase in Capex is viewed as a necessary investment for tech companies to remain competitive in the AI arms race, with the fear of missing out (FOMO) driving spending [10][11]. - Companies are shifting from operational expenditures (Opex) to Capex, aiming to reduce labor costs and improve efficiency through AI [11]. Group 5: Long-term Implications and Risks - The article highlights the potential risks associated with high Capex, including the pressure on profits due to depreciation and amortization of investments if corresponding revenue does not materialize [17][20]. - Companies like Meta have seen their fixed assets increase significantly due to AI investments, raising concerns about becoming "heavy asset" enterprises and facing profit volatility [20][21]. Group 6: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current trend mirrors the late 1990s internet boom, where massive investments in infrastructure led to the rise of major companies, although many early players failed [23]. - The article suggests that while current tech giants have stable core businesses, the ongoing Capex may not guarantee future success, emphasizing the need for effective monetization of AI investments [23][24].