负债评估曲线差异分化净资产波动，人保彰显集团经营韧性 ——1H25 保险股 P/CE-ROCE 估值体系更新 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn 2、《股票余额环比增长 8.9%，基金 配置比例持续下降——2Q25 保险资 金运用分析》2025-08-18 现状和应对》2025-08-09 保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2025 年 09 月 10 日 报告摘要 | 上市公司数 | 6 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 31,043.07 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 31,036.94 | 1、《利差不够股票来凑，险资拥抱长 期慢牛 ——"中长期资金入市下的权 益 策 略 优 化 " 系 列 读 书 札 记 》 2025-08-26 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 行业点评报告 1.P/CE-ROCE 估值体系回顾 1.1 综合权益（CE）的引入 图表 1 ：综合权益（ CE ）的引 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance sector [2]. Core Insights - The PCE-ROCE valuation system is introduced to better reflect the true value of insurance companies under new standards, addressing the limitations of the traditional P/EV system [6][47]. - The report identifies that companies like China Pacific Insurance and China Life Insurance are significantly undervalued in the A-share market, while in the H-share market, China Pacific, China Life, and Sunshine Insurance are also notably undervalued [6][6]. - The insurance sector is characterized by dual benefits: companies possess dividend advantages, and leading firms like Ping An have strategically invested in high-dividend assets, which positively impacts their performance [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The P/EV valuation system is under scrutiny due to a prolonged low interest rate environment, leading to a decline in the valuation levels of listed insurance companies [16][16]. - As of July 23, 2025, major insurance companies are trading at historical low P/EV ratios, indicating a potential valuation trap [16][16]. 2. PCE-ROCE Valuation System - The PCE-ROCE system incorporates comprehensive equity (CE) and return on comprehensive equity (ROCE) to provide a more accurate valuation framework [47][48]. - The system aims to mitigate the volatility associated with traditional valuation methods by integrating net assets and contract service margins [6][47]. 3. Comparison with PIEV - The PCE-ROCE system is deemed more effective in reflecting the true value of insurance companies in a low interest rate environment compared to the PIEV system, which relies heavily on long-term investment return assumptions [8][8]. - The report highlights that the PCE-ROCE system offers a balanced valuation approach by considering both net assets and contract service margins [8][8]. 4. Profitability Analysis of Listed Insurance Companies - The report evaluates the profitability of insurance policies under the new standards, focusing on contract service margins (CSM) and new business contract service margins (NBCSM) [8][8]. - A scoring system is established to assess the performance of listed insurance companies based on various profitability indicators, with AIA, PICC, and CPIC scoring the highest [8][8]. 5. Main Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report concludes that the insurance sector presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in companies that are undervalued and have strong dividend policies [6][6]. - Recommended companies for investment include New China Life, Ping An, AIA, China Life, China Pacific, and China People’s Insurance [6][6].