PPI与国债收益率关系

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对本轮债市回调的思考
Huaan Securities· 2025-07-25 07:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent bond market correction was beyond investors' expectations, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield rising from 1.66% to 1.74%. After analyzing the influencing factors, investors don't need to worry too much. Key points to focus on include the central bank's continued intention to support funds, whether the redemption pressure peak on July 24 has passed, and whether commodity prices drive subsequent PPI to rise significantly and form inflationary pressure. In the short term, the supply pressure of government bonds in the second half of the year has decreased compared to the first half, the fundamentals are not bearish for the bond market, the possibility of unexpectedly incremental policies in the July Politburo meeting is low, the curve steepening from an institutional behavior perspective will continue, and investors' bullish sentiment remains [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Analysis of Bond Market Correction Factors - **Redemption Tide**: On July 24, the redemption intensity of pure bond funds was significantly stronger than that in February this year, second only to the redemption tide in October last year, and roughly equivalent to that in August last year. From July 23 - 24, funds sold a large amount of bonds, and the selling volume corresponded to the redemption index without excessive selling. If subsequent redemption indicators stabilize, the bond market correction will be relatively controllable [4]. - **Fund Tightening and Treasury Bond Issuance**: Although there was a net withdrawal in the central bank's open - market operations from Monday to Wednesday this week, the funding rate DR007 remained below 1.50%, and the amount of funds provided by the banking system was maintained at 4 trillion yuan. On July 24, the funding tightened, but on July 25, the central bank conducted 7893 billion yuan of 7D reverse repurchases (net investment of 6018 billion yuan), indicating its clear intention to support liquidity. Investors don't need to worry too much about fund tightening and primary issuance [4]. - **Impact of Commodity Market Rally on Bond Market**: The rally in the commodity market has suppressed bond market sentiment. Although historically, PPI and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield have a high correlation, there have been some divergences. For the current market, real estate investment remains under pressure, the funding rate is maintained about 10bp above the OMO, and whether PPI can turn positive and continue to rise is uncertain. The current commodity price increase lacks strong demand - side support and is difficult to effectively transmit to CPI and form comprehensive inflationary pressure [4][5].