债市何时回调到位 20250824 摘要 A 股市场面临多重利好，包括全球流动性宽松预期、业绩风险释放、外 部压力缓解、科技产业催化以及资金入场形成正循环，为权益市场带来 上涨动力。 转债市场供需紧平衡加剧，存量转债加速强赎退出，新券供给不足，而 机构投资者对转债的刚性配置需求强烈，转债 ETF 规模显著增长，表明 机构加仓意愿强烈。 转债价格中位数突破 135 元，估值处于历史高位，但考虑到权益市场慢 牛预期、中小盘股票及科技板块的上涨空间以及专业机构投资者占比提 升，估值仍有上行空间。 建议采取哑铃型转债投资策略，一方面关注偏股型优质标的，如 AI 算力、 半导体等科技成长赛道；另一方面选择低价、具备下修博弈潜力或偏大 盘底仓品种，以博取整体收益。 债市回调主因是市场预期变化而非经济数据回暖，可通过观察 30 年-10 年期国债利差收窄、地方债和超长债交投热度增加以及 2024 年底过度 预期回吐程度来判断回调是否到位。 Q&A 请问过去一周转债市场的表现如何？ 过去一周，权益市场加速上行，上证指数从突破 3,700 点到 3,800 点仅用了一 周时间，创下十年新高。两市成交额维持在 2.4 万亿以上， ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the bond market correction in the 4th week of July 2025 and analyzes its causes and future trends [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market correction on July 29 was mainly due to institutional behavior, and future attention should be paid to the decline in borrowing volume and the stabilization of bond fund redemptions [2][7] - The long - term bullish logic of the bond market has not changed, and it is still too early to talk about a bond market reversal [7] Group 4: Characteristics of the Bond Market Correction - Intra - day fluctuations were small, and interest rates continued to rise, different from the rapid decline in the late trading in 2024 [3] - The correction was not directly caused by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, and it was difficult to explain from the macro - capital flow [3] - The adjustment of 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 30Y treasury bonds was the most obvious, with an upward amplitude of about 4bp [3] Group 5: Reasons from the Institutional Behavior Perspective - On July 29, both securities firms and funds were net sellers throughout the day, which was different from the past [4] - Medium - and long - term bond funds faced redemption pressure, and funds continued to flow out slightly [4] - Securities firms were borrowing and selling bonds, mainly borrowing 10Y China Development Bank bonds and 30Y treasury bonds for short - selling on the cash bond side, similar to the situation in the first quarter of this year [4] Group 6: Macro - background Factors - With increasing macro - disturbance factors such as the childcare subsidy policy and waiting for the Politburo meeting and Sino - US negotiations, securities firms may increase borrowing and selling [6] Group 7: Future Market Outlook - The bond market correction was a resonance of trading desks actively increasing borrowing and selling and continuous bond fund redemptions [7] - High - frequency attention should be paid to whether securities firms further increase short - selling through borrowing and whether the bond fund redemption pressure ends completely [7] Group 8: Impact of Insurance Institutions - The reduction of the预定 interest rate by insurance institutions may have a "short - term positive and long - term negative" impact on the bond market [6] - In the short term, increased premium income may lead to more purchases of ultra - long bonds during corrections, but in the long term, the preference for 30Y treasury bonds has declined, and local government bonds are the main allocation bonds [6] Group 9: Potential Scale of Securities Firms' Borrowing and Selling - If securities firms continue to increase borrowing and selling, the net selling scale may reach up to 35 billion yuan under a pessimistic assumption [6]

债券研究 / 2025.07.27 | 对于本轮债市回调的三点思考 | ન | 唐元懋(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ■ 利率周度策略 | પ્ર | 0755-23976753 | | | P | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 本报告导读: | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | 股债不同向的根源,高久期拥挤在交易逻辑下的风险,商品上涨对债市的影响特征。 | ત | 孙越(研究助理) | | | ન | 021-38031033 | | 投资要点: | 4 | sunyue6(agtht.com | | O 过去一周,受到股债晓晓板、商品拉涨、资金收紧的多重利空扰动, | 登记编号 | S0880123070142 | | Partic Partic Partic Pro Property Comment | | | 相关报告 | 信用债回调阶段,谁更抗跌 2025.07.26 | | --- | | 市场情绪不佳,指数深蹲后小幅修复 2025.07.26 | | 机构行为数据库 0722 2025.07.22 | | 信用利差与等级利差有所收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent bond market correction was beyond investors' expectations, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield rising from 1.66% to 1.74%. After analyzing the influencing factors, investors don't need to worry too much. Key points to focus on include the central bank's continued intention to support funds, whether the redemption pressure peak on July 24 has passed, and whether commodity prices drive subsequent PPI to rise significantly and form inflationary pressure. In the short term, the supply pressure of government bonds in the second half of the year has decreased compared to the first half, the fundamentals are not bearish for the bond market, the possibility of unexpectedly incremental policies in the July Politburo meeting is low, the curve steepening from an institutional behavior perspective will continue, and investors' bullish sentiment remains [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Analysis of Bond Market Correction Factors - **Redemption Tide**: On July 24, the redemption intensity of pure bond funds was significantly stronger than that in February this year, second only to the redemption tide in October last year, and roughly equivalent to that in August last year. From July 23 - 24, funds sold a large amount of bonds, and the selling volume corresponded to the redemption index without excessive selling. If subsequent redemption indicators stabilize, the bond market correction will be relatively controllable [4]. - **Fund Tightening and Treasury Bond Issuance**: Although there was a net withdrawal in the central bank's open - market operations from Monday to Wednesday this week, the funding rate DR007 remained below 1.50%, and the amount of funds provided by the banking system was maintained at 4 trillion yuan. On July 24, the funding tightened, but on July 25, the central bank conducted 7893 billion yuan of 7D reverse repurchases (net investment of 6018 billion yuan), indicating its clear intention to support liquidity. Investors don't need to worry too much about fund tightening and primary issuance [4]. - **Impact of Commodity Market Rally on Bond Market**: The rally in the commodity market has suppressed bond market sentiment. Although historically, PPI and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield have a high correlation, there have been some divergences. For the current market, real estate investment remains under pressure, the funding rate is maintained about 10bp above the OMO, and whether PPI can turn positive and continue to rise is uncertain. The current commodity price increase lacks strong demand - side support and is difficult to effectively transmit to CPI and form comprehensive inflationary pressure [4][5].

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>短债基金>高等级同业存单指基金 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | >中长期债基> 现金管理 | >现金管理>中长期债基 | | | 近一个月资金面进一步转松,中美关税大幅 | 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 缓和、提升市场风险偏好,长债利率有所回 | 调，4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡，5 | | | 升,短端利率相对稳定。 | 月中旬以来转为偏弱震荡。 | | 行业事件 | 1、中国证监会近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 | | | 跟踪 | | | | 展空 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率偏强震荡。 | | | | 明显,私人部门融资需求偏弱;宏观政策兼 | 近期经济金融数据显示国内低通胀特征依然 | | | 顾积极有为和定力,"超预期"政策出台必 | | | 债市展望 | - ...

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 债市没有大幅回调基础 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 5 月 12 日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，中美贸易领域取得实质性进展，当日 债市熊陡。资金面二季度边际转宽，财政存款释放和实体信贷偏弱共同利好资金面，银行负债 压力缓解；滚动套息策略的收益确定性较强，或吸引理财、货基等广义基金维持净买入，短债 品种难以大幅回调。短端难以趋势上行背景下，长端继续回调意味着利率曲线进一步熊陡，而 这需要基本面的趋势性恢复。二季度以来实际利率受物价影响仍承压，或给基本面带来压力。 银行存款利率可能迎来新一轮调降，或带来广谱利率进一步下降，通过比价效应利好国债。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 债市没有大幅回调基础 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 5 月 12 日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，中美双方关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in fixed income products and the bond market, highlighting the upward movement of bond yields and the implications for investment returns in various fixed income products [2][10][31]. Summary by Sections Review - In the past month, bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a decline in investment returns for fixed income products. The performance of pure bond funds and long-term bond funds has been particularly poor, while cash management products and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit have outperformed [3][8]. Fixed Income Product Performance - As of March 17, the one-month returns for various products were as follows: high-grade interbank certificate index at 0.12% (up from 0.08%), cash management at 0.11% (down from 0.12%), rights-bearing bond funds at -0.02% (up from -0.64%), short bond funds at -0.14% (down from -0.05%), and long-term bond funds at -0.65% (down from -0.02%) [3][9]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has been influenced by three main factors: economic growth, interbank liquidity, and credit growth. The overall sentiment is neutral to bearish, with rising bond yields, particularly in long-term bonds. The one-year interbank certificate rate fluctuated between 1.8% and 2.2%, closing at 1.98%, an increase of 18 basis points [10][12]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations for interbank certificates suggest a downward trend in rates, while bond yields are anticipated to stabilize at high levels. The credit bond yields are expected to remain stable, with credit spreads potentially compressing further [28][30]. Investment Strategy - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining current cash product allocations is advisable, with a gradual shift towards stable low-volatility investments. For conservative investors, increasing exposure to pure bond products is recommended when 10-year government bonds yield above 2.0% [31][35]. Equity Market Insights - The equity market has shown resilience, with major indices experiencing upward movement. The consumption sector is expected to generate excess returns due to supportive policies, despite concerns over domestic demand [32][26].