Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 23 contracts rising and 56 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The main contracts with significant price increases include pure benzene (+2.04%), eggs (+1.95%), and apples (+1.26%), while low-sulfur fuel oil (-3.5%) and coking coal (-3.17%) experienced notable declines [5][6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were observed in the CSI 500 (3.693 billion), CSI 300 (2.605 billion), and CSI 1000 (1.334 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [9] - Conversely, the largest capital outflows were seen in gold futures (-2.804 billion) and ten-year government bonds (-0.852 billion), suggesting a withdrawal of funds from these assets [9] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for styrene (+14.53%) and silicon iron (+13.71%), indicating heightened trading activity and potential new capital inflows [10] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted for pulp (-12.52%) and ten-year bonds (-12.74%), suggesting a potential exit of major funds from these positions [10] Key Events - The Shanghai Gold Exchange emphasized the importance of risk control amid market volatility, urging members to maintain emergency plans and manage investor risks effectively [11] - Jiangsu Province issued a yellow alert for heavy pollution, although steel production in the affected areas remains unaffected for now [12] Commodity Insights - The lithium carbonate contract saw a slight increase of 0.84%, with market expectations of demand potentially softening in the coming months, suggesting caution in trading strategies [20] - Coking coal prices have been on a downward trend, with recent prices hitting a two-and-a-half-month low, reflecting cautious purchasing behavior from downstream industries [21] - The glass market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with prices continuing to decline and no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals [22]

从长期视角看，债券应回归配置属性，而在整条收益率曲线上，兼具配置价值与部分交易价值、性价比 最高且最均衡的期限段，便是十年国债。因此简单总结： 我们判断，今年四季度结束后，明年债市整体仍将呈现低波动震荡行情，核心原因在于，过去一段时间 需求持续偏弱，居民收入改善尚未出现明显拐点，换句话说，当前经济结构转型所需时间比市场预期更 长。 转型过程中，结构性需求的支撑仍来自中央政府。财政通过大幅提高赤字率支撑经济需求端，而这一背 景下，必然依赖发行长期限或超长期限政府债。在此背景下，财政部门难以容忍长期或超长期利率大幅 上行，因为这将无形中增加利息支出，因此当前宏观环境下，债券收益率大幅上行的风险较低。而债券 收益率的下行空间，则高度依赖当前广谱利率何时开启新一轮下行，这包括前几年大行与中小行陆续下 调定期存款利率，以及央行层面下调政策利率等动作。今年，央行虽未调整逆回购利率，但对部分未公 开价格的数量招标类货币政策工具（如近期的买断式回购、中期借贷便利MLF），已进行阶段性调 整。因此，这些政策利率明年是否会再次下调，以维持当前相对偏高的风险偏好及偏低的整体融资成 本？这一点明年值得期待。 若给出中性判断，我们认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to be a process of asset allocation rebalancing, with significant importance placed on asset allocation this year, particularly in the context of the equity market's substantial rise in the second and third quarters [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently announced the resumption of bond buying, which is a liquidity injection tool aimed at addressing short-term liquidity pressures in the bond market [1][2] - The PBOC's bond buying in October was limited to 20 billion, but if extended over a month, it could return to a normal level of around 100 billion, indicating a continued commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2] - The resumption of bond buying is expected to stabilize the bond market, particularly for ten-year government bonds, suggesting that the market will enter a period of reduced volatility [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Supply Pressure - The bond market is expected to return to its allocation characteristics, with a focus on longer-duration bonds that exhibit lower volatility, particularly the ten-year bonds [3] - There is significant supply pressure in the bond market due to weak demand from the real economy, but this pressure is expected to ease towards the end of the year, especially after November [3][4] - The year-end period is typically a time when large traditional bond investment institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, engage in pre-allocating bonds for the upcoming year, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand [3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Outlook - Current fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be moderate, with a focus on 500 billion in policy financial tools and another 500 billion in advance local government bond issuance, which may support stable economic growth but not lead to significant upturns [4] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI and financing data suggesting that the economy is still in a bottoming phase, which is reflected in the real estate sector as well [4] - The bond market is seen as relatively favorable under these conditions, with limited upward risks and a stable environment expected through the year-end window [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The bond market is viewed as having high allocation value, particularly from November to the pre-Spring Festival period, with limited space for further declines in yields [5] - The central bank's lack of intent to lower interbank funding prices suggests that the bond market will maintain a stable yield level, with the ten-year government bond being a key focus for investors seeking both allocation and trading opportunities [5][6] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as an advantageous investment tool, providing easy access to the bond market and supporting flexible trading options for investors [6]

从今年7月开始，我们看到整个商品市场伴随反内卷交易逐步走出底部，而根据不同行业反内卷政策的 落地与执行效果，众多资产后续走势也截然不同。但对大部分资产而言，其走势已明显打破了2022年至 2025年6月期间的单边下跌调整行情。 这意味着该新规落地后对市场的冲击可能相对有限；反之，若落地后负债端扰动不及预期，在央行买债 的催化下，市场甚至可能进一步下行。 因此我们认为，在9月末的窗口期，市场对销售费率新规引发债市调整的担忧一度较高，但随着市场长 期限品种反弹、边际货币环境改善及货币政策利多逐步落地，叠加市场风险偏好趋于均衡，在大类资产 配置再平衡过程中，该新规落地后的市场冲击已相对有限。在此背景下，11月需关注的是：短期市场横 盘震荡过程中，结构性行情是否会出现修复？此前受销售费率新规冲击较大的中短期限证金债，其税收 利差是否会收敛？当前货币环境宽松背景下，信用利差是否会进一步修复？此外，在货币环境改善、债 市情绪逐步回暖的情况下，5年、7年、10年、30年等期限的期限利差，是否也会迎来一轮修复？这些修 复机会，我们认为可能是11月获取超额收益的来源。 因此我们整体判断，市场仍有最后两个月的窗口期，债市整体面临 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a 2.22% decline in the CSI 300 index this week, with the recommended asset allocation order being equities > commodities > bonds > cash [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.36%. In contrast, coking coal futures increased by 1.67%, and iron ore futures decreased by 3.02%. The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.06%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds remained stable at 1.82% [2][13][40]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - In September, China's imports saw a significant month-on-month increase of 8.5%. High-tech product imports remained active, with semiconductor devices, integrated circuits, and automatic data processing equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 8.8%, and 27.2%, respectively. The import of copper ore and copper products also maintained positive year-on-year growth, indicating a potential recovery in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][21]. Economic Data Insights - In September, China's CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. The fiscal revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a notable growth of 2.5% in the third quarter [6][24][21]. Market Trends - The A-share market showed weakness this week, with only the Shanghai Dividend Index rising by 2.96%. The leading sectors included banking (4.99%), coal (4.27%), and food and beverage (0.85%), while the electronics components sector led the declines with a drop of 7.10% [40][41]. Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds closed at 1.82%, down 1 basis point, while the yield on ten-year policy bank bonds fell by 3 basis points to 1.99%. The credit spread decreased by 4 basis points to 0.36% [45][46]. Commodity Market Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in commodity prices, with NYMEX crude oil futures down by 2.80% to $57.25 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 6.69% to $4,267.90 per ounce [18][19]. Real Estate Market Overview - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a slight rebound, with a weekly transaction area of 1.2797 million square meters. The report anticipates that the "stabilizing real estate" policy will continue to have a positive effect in the fourth quarter [36][39]. Automotive Industry Trends - In the automotive sector, the wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a year-on-year growth of -1% and 7%, respectively, indicating a focus on consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand [36][42]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report notes an increase in the operating rates of major steel mills, with rebar and wire rod operating rates rising by 1.35 and 1.78 percentage points, respectively. However, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt facilities in various regions showed a decline [26][27].

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which is expected to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, particularly in the context of a complex external environment and weakening global economic growth [7][22] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a focus on domestic growth stabilization policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [5][21] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a slight adjustment post-holiday, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.51%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49% [3][14] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the active ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.26% [3][14] - The report notes a mixed performance in various asset classes, with coal futures rising by 2.42% and iron ore futures declining by 0.38% [3][14] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [5][15] - The allocation to commodities is maintained at a standard level, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [5][15] Economic Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0% [21][22] - Consumer spending during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in both goods and services consumption [21][22] Industry-Specific Developments - The report highlights the government's support for consumption through the issuance of special bonds totaling 690 billion yuan to promote the replacement of old consumer goods [22][23] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging trade-ins, with a notable increase in sales anticipated [35][41]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant volatility since July, with rising yields and a clear downward trend, influenced by the upward movement in equity and commodity markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield has risen over 5 basis points, while the 30-year yield has increased by more than 8 basis points, surpassing 1.9% [1] - The bond market adjustment is attributed to the strong performance of equity and commodity markets, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policies [1] - The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds remains at a historical low of 20 basis points, indicating a crowded and fragile trading structure [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market remain stable, with structural issues in the Chinese economy still needing resolution [2] - The real estate market is stabilizing, but the overall economic growth rate is declining, suggesting a prolonged period of asset scarcity [2] - The expectation of continued accommodative monetary policy, including potential rate cuts, supports the bond market's fundamentals [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The dividend yield of the CSI All Share Index has dropped to around 2%, narrowing the gap with the 10-year government bond yield, which enhances the attractiveness of bonds [2] - The estimated reasonable pricing for the 10-year government bond is between 1.8% and 1.9%, based on the anticipated spread with policy rates [2] - A breakthrough above the 1.9% yield level may require effective demand-side stimulus policies to be implemented [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the current state and future outlook of government bonds, particularly the 10-year and 30-year bonds, as well as the impact of value-added tax (VAT) on these bonds [1][5][14]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Adjustment** - There are signs of over-adjustment in the short-term bond market, with indicators showing a demand for stabilization. The rapid adjustment, floating losses for funds, and strong short-seller forces are key manifestations of this over-adjustment [1][4]. 2. **Attractiveness of Long-term Bonds** - Long-term government bonds subject to VAT are attractive in the current market environment, with strong demand from institutional investors. These bonds offer advantages in yield and tax treatment compared to other risk-free assets of similar duration [1][5]. 3. **Influencing Factors on Bond Market** - The recent bond market is influenced by the equity market's rise, economic fundamentals, and monetary policy. If the equity market's rise is driven solely by risk appetite, the bond market's interest rates will gradually become less responsive after adjustments [1][6]. 4. **Interest Rate Predictions** - Most interest rate prediction models are pessimistic about the bond market's future, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield may break 1.8%, with a high point projected at 1.85% [1][8]. 5. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Short-term investment strategies should focus on a rebound approach, avoiding chasing yields during interest rate declines. A hold strategy is recommended for bond portfolios, with caution against increasing duration [1][9][10]. 6. **Bond Curve Dynamics** - The current curve shape is slightly bear steep, with long-term rates relatively weaker than short-term rates. In a bear steep environment, a bullet strategy is suggested, while a barbell strategy is recommended for dynamic investment to quickly adjust duration [1][11]. 7. **Specific Bond Recommendations** - The newly issued 10-year and 30-year bonds are highlighted as having the potential to become mainstay bonds. The 10-year bond (250,215) is noted for its value, while the new 30-year special government bond (25 特 6) is expected to have a significant issuance scale [2][12][15]. 8. **Impact of VAT on Bond Trading** - The introduction of VAT on government bonds is not expected to significantly alter market behavior. Investors will still consider after-tax returns when trading bonds, but the VAT will not deter trading activity [14]. 9. **Long-term vs. Short-term Bond Strategies** - Investors are advised to consider the differences in volatility and yield spreads when choosing between 10-year and 30-year bonds. The 30-year bonds may present greater opportunities in a rebound market, while the 10-year bonds are more suited for defensive strategies [20][21]. Other Important Considerations - The bond market's future trajectory will be influenced by government debt issuance and central bank policies, particularly in the fourth quarter, which may lead to fluctuations in liquidity [8][9]. - The potential for the new 30-year special government bond (25 特 6) to become a mainstay bond is emphasized, with its issuance scale expected to be significant compared to existing bonds [15][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the bond market, along with strategic recommendations for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The recent trading data for the ten-year government bond indicates a low level of financing activity, with net selling observed over the last three trading days [1] Financing Activity - On August 21, the ten-year government bond (511260) had a financing buy amount of 0.20 billion, ranking 1087th in the market [1] - The financing repayment amount on the same day was 2.59 billion, resulting in a net sell of 239.19 million [1] - Over the last three trading days (August 19-21), the financing buy amounts were 1.51 billion, 0.20 billion, and 0.20 billion respectively [1] Securities Lending - On August 21, there were no shares sold or net sold in the securities lending market for the ten-year government bond [1]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]