宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 7 月 13 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 关注 7 月政治局会议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 | - | "股债跷跷板"或将短期影响债市 | 低配 | | 货币 | - | 收益率将在 2%上下波动 | 低配 | | 大宗商品 | = | 关注财政增量政策落实进度 | 标配 | | 外汇 | = | 中国经济基本面优势支撑汇率宽幅波动 | 标配 | 资料来源：中银证券 相关研究报告 《中银量化多策略行业轮动周报 – 20250710》 20250711 《策略点评报告》20250710 《策略点 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of 10 new AAA technology innovation company bond ETFs has significantly contributed to the growth of the bond ETF market, with the total number of bond ETFs nearing 40 and the total scale exceeding 400 billion yuan, indicating a potential for explosive growth in the future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of July 11, the total scale of bond ETFs reached 4.278 billion yuan, with 39 bond ETFs existing in the market, of which 15 have scales exceeding 10 billion yuan [2][5]. - The largest bond ETF is the government financial bond ETF from Fortune Fund, exceeding 52.5 billion yuan, followed closely by the short-term financing bond ETF from Hai Futong Fund, also above 52 billion yuan [2][3]. - The bond ETF market is still underdeveloped, with a market share of less than 10% compared to the total ETF market, which stands at 4.3 trillion yuan [5]. Group 2: Growth Trends - The first bond ETF was established in March 2013, and the number of bond ETFs has accelerated significantly since 2022, with the total scale surpassing 1 trillion yuan in 2024 and reaching 4 trillion yuan by July 11, 2025 [4][6]. - The rapid growth is attributed to a decline in bond market yields and the increasing attractiveness of bond ETFs due to their high liquidity and lower investment costs [4][6]. Group 3: Investor Dynamics - The investor base for bond ETFs is becoming increasingly diverse, with significant participation from various asset management institutions, including pension funds, bank wealth management, and insurance asset management [6][9]. - The demand for bond ETFs is expected to grow as more investors utilize them as investment tools, necessitating fund managers to offer a wider range of bond ETF products [7][8]. Group 4: Market Mechanisms - Recent innovations in market mechanisms, such as including credit bond ETFs in the general pledge-style repurchase collateral list, are expected to enhance trading efficiency and liquidity [9]. - The ability to pledge credit bond ETFs for financing is anticipated to increase returns for investors and simplify trading operations [9].

来源：国泰基金 看问题要抓关键、抓重点、抓核心，投资也是。 我们常说，投资要布局"核心资产"。何谓"核心"？如果做个概括，自然离不开代表性强、市场认可度 高、交易活跃、配置量大这些特点。 很明显，在股市中，沪深300是首屈一指的存在。作为A股市场最具代表性的宽基指数之一，无论是从 市场覆盖广度、还是产品生态丰富度，沪深300指数均已超越单一指数范畴，成为A股市场的标杆指 数，被投资者视为股市的"核心资产"。 首先，关税政策仍是"悬顶之剑"。特朗普政府关税政策反复无常，对大类资产定价的冲击可能卷土重 来，外围环境的不确定性依然可能随时爆发。 数据来源：wind，时间2025/1/1-2025/6/30 其次，国内方面，投资、消费、出口作为拉动经济的三驾马车，以旧换新政策虽然对内需有一定拉动， 但投资端放缓特征依然突出，且出口受关税扰动较大存在较高不确定性，经济复苏之路仍存一定阻力。 此外，货币政策依然延续"适度宽松"的基调未变，随着货币政策面临的约束减弱，为应对外部不确定 性，资金利率有望进一步下行，也会利好债市。 那么，对于债券市场来说，什么是债市的"核心资产"呢？这要先从今年的债券市场行情说起。 上半年"倒 ...

此外，十年国债ETF还有四点独特的配置优势： 1、 T+0交易便捷：国债类ETF实行"T+0"交易，即当日买入、当日可卖出。低利率环境中，市场呈现高 波动行情，高波动中必然蕴含较多的波段交易机会。 债市压舱石——十年国债ETF（511260）连续5日净流入额超11亿元，近1个月净流入额超百亿元，当前 规模超150亿元，流动性占优。 4 、可进行质押回购：当市场其他资产有投资机会、恰巧手头资金不够充裕时，投资者就可以通过ETF 质押换取资金，来参与其他类资产的投资，到期时再赎回ETF即可。 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定，目前组合平均久期为7.6年。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值 屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳健。根据基金定期报告，截至一季度末，近1年回报率达6.02%，近3年回报 率达15.04%，近5年回报率达19.26%，成立至今累计回报率达34.63%。 值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is crucial for asset prices, with increasing expectations for a shift to a loosening cycle due to limited inflation impact from recent tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government have had a limited effect on inflation, with the import price index showing no significant increase post-tariff, indicating that the cost burden is primarily on U.S. importers rather than consumers [2] - Core CPI and PPI remain stable, with core PPI growth at only 0.1% in May, contrasting sharply with the 10% tariffs, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing [2] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. provides ample space for monetary policy easing, with actual interest rates significantly higher than core inflation rates, leading to expectations of rate cuts starting in September [3] - The market anticipates a gradual shift to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with the federal funds rate potentially dropping to 3.75% by year-end [3] Group 4 - Trade policy impacts are expected to be limited, with recent agreements showing a compromise on tariffs, indicating a stable external environment for the bond market over the next few quarters [4] Group 5 - The ten-year Treasury ETF (511260) is highlighted as a key investment tool in the upcoming loosening cycle, effectively reflecting market trends and providing flexibility for investors [5] - The ETF is positioned to benefit from anticipated declines in ten-year Treasury yields as the market adjusts to expected rate cuts, supported by both policy and market dynamics [5]

2025年7月9日共208只ETF基金获资金净流入，419只ETF基金净流出。净流入金额超1亿元的有21只，短融ETF(511360.SH)、科创50ETF(588000.SH)、科创芯 片ETF(588200.SH)、上证可转债ETF(511180.SH)、半导体ETF(512480.SH)资金显著流入，分别净流入7.57亿元、5.91亿元、4.51亿元、3.54亿元、3.44亿元 （净申购份额*单位净值）。 | 排名 | 基金管理人 | 证券简称 | 证券代码 | 净流入金额(万元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 海富通事会 | 短融ETF | 211360 | 75748 | | 2 | 华夏基金 | 科创50ETF | 588000 | 5912. | | 3 | 嘉实基金 | 科创芯片ETF | 588200 | 45078 | | प | 海富通事会 | 上证可转债ETF | 511180 | 35431 | | 5 | 国联安基金 | 半导体ETF | 512480 | 3442 | | 6 | 华泰柏瑞基金 | 红利低波ETF | 512890 ...

债市压舱石——十年国债ETF（511260）连续5日净流入额超11亿元，近1个月净流入额超百亿元，当前规模超150亿元，流动性占优。 第二，分析一下长端品种的机会。和长端品种定价最相关的关键因子有：基本面和国内当前通胀的情况。 今年的政策从三季度的维度来看，到了观察窗口期。今年财政出现了前置发力，今年上半年尽管有一些地缘政治的冲击，但是财政提 前发力，而且国内在积极的做一些政策的储备应对，尤其在今年的二季度，我们看到非常明显的抢出口、转出口等情况，所以对经济 形成了比较强的支撑。 此外，三季度又是一个债券供给的淡季，而且随着这几年大行负债成本持续的下行，存款明显出现"搬家"，大部分资金从银行端逐步 切换到了广义基金。 所以对于债券市场来说，尤其对于长端品种来说，三季度可能会出现一个特征，即市场会进一步强化"资产配置荒"的逻辑。在这个逻 辑持续的演绎下，大部分配置性的机构或者交易性的机构都会增加债券尤其是长端债券的配置。展望接下来的三季度，长端债券的投 资机会在于：一是可以通过配置获得票息，二是具备价格进一步下行的可能，从而获得资本利得的交易机会。 做一个总结，货币政策的宽松会带来短端债券品种持续的配置价值，展 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETFs, specifically Bosera 30-Year Government Bond Index ETF and Pengyang 30-Year Government Bond ETF, showed strong performance with daily increases of 0.84% and 0.79% respectively on July 8, 2025 [1] - The central bank did not publish the usual government bond trading operations in June 2025, following its first-ever bond trading operation in August 2024, where it net purchased bonds worth 100 billion yuan [1] - The first quarter monetary policy report indicated that the central bank paused government bond purchases due to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market [1] Group 2 - Global political and economic order is rapidly restructuring in 2025, with the "Trump 2.0" policy becoming a key variable, leading to increased trade barriers and geopolitical conflicts, which heighten global economic uncertainty and slow growth [1] - China is expected to achieve an annual economic growth rate of approximately 5% through structural reforms in response to external shocks [1] - The domestic demand shortage, low price levels, and external uncertainties are providing support for the bond market, but limited room for further fundamental gains is anticipated due to stable economic growth [1] Group 3 - Under the policy framework of "proactive fiscal policy + moderate monetary easing," there is a likelihood of a 10-15 basis point interest rate cut in the fourth quarter, which may drive down the interest rate center [1] - The bond market is expected to maintain volatility, with a higher probability of strengthening in the fourth quarter [1] Group 4 - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF tracks the 10-Year Government Bond Index, which primarily selects fixed-rate government bonds with a remaining term close to 10 years listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, reflecting the overall performance of China's long-term government bond market [2] - The index does not involve specific industry or style allocations, and the issuer is typically the Ministry of Finance of China, aimed at providing investors with a benchmark tool for measuring the long-term government bond market [2]

当前，海外部分，对于债券来说最关键的就是美联储政策。对于美联储的宽松，货币市场预期得更早一些，核心的原因就是这一轮美国的通胀受到关税的 影响非常有限。接下来，我们从数据出发来进行分析。 首先是美国进口价格指数，图中的几条线是美国从不同经济体进口商品三个月的环比，如果三个月是上涨的就在0以上，三个月是下跌的就在0以下。 数据来源：Wind，Bloomberg，国泰基金整理，数据截至2025年5月。 4月2日之后，美国加征对等关税，对欧盟也加征对等关税。其实美国的进口价格指数没有出现很明显的波动，传导是很有限的，进口价格指数几乎没有变 动。传导到CPI和PPI这边，其自然变化也是比较有限的。整体来看，美国的CPI还是处在一个大周期过程中，从不同的方向来说，其实服务方向的下行应 该说是占主导的，关税主要影响商品部分的通胀，也不太影响像原油、食品这类商品，因为美国的原油、食品大部分是从加拿大、墨西哥进口以及自产， 受到关税的影响比较小。 总的来说，下半年会比市场想得更宽松，而且美联储的状态也会更快转变为鸽派。 在贸易谈判方面，特朗普还是有高度不确定性的。在此背景下，推荐关注十年国债ETF（511260）这一核心配置工 ...

从政策层面来看，就上半年而言，最主要的一件事情是央行在5月7日贸易冲突之后做了一次双降，降准 50个BP，降息10个BP，应该说降准的幅度是足够的，但是降息的幅度还是偏小一些，这也是我们后面 讨论货币政策的主线，整体货币政策的空间是越来越小的，所以货币政策没办法大开大合。在财政政策 方面，上半年的主线是靠前发力的，今年截至年中，政府债发行已经接近8万亿，去年大概是四五万 亿，同比是大幅增多的。如果只看用作项目的新增专项债，其实今年的进度是中性水平，不快不慢，因 为上半年主要还是发行了去年年底提到的2万亿特别国债，用于化解隐性债务。今年上半年主要是做化 债，下半年用于做项目的专项债应该也会加快发行的速度，往年都是在三季度之前集中发完。 对于未来的展望，我们还是预期会有降准和降息，预计降息可能是看20个BP，降准大概看50个BP，主 要的原因是经济层面三季度面临多重周期的下行，需要稳增长的政策。另外，要配合财政增发政府债 券，货币政策要给到一些配额。 首先是对于现在的货币政策来说，金融稳定越来越重要，到今年一季度末的时候，商业银行加权的净息 差已经收窄到了1.43%，净息差的稳定线或者说合意水平是1.8%，现在整 ...