1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PVC situation is currently bearish, but the market is optimistic about the industry's spring maintenance, future incremental policies, and the exit of some inefficient domestic production capacities. There is a game between the weak reality and strong expectations of PVC, so it should be treated with short - term fluctuations. Technically, the daily K - line of V2605 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5010 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4963 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 15; the trading volume is 1161838 lots, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 155627; the open interest is 1130097 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 55686. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions is 1099698 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 26862; the sell order volume is 1197058 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 29686; the net buy order volume is - 97360 lots, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2824 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4735.93 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 7.78. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5020 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4833.75 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 19.38. The CIF price of PVC in China is 720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 248 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 93 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2750 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 100; in North China, it is 2623.33 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 171.67; in Northwest China, it is 2456 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 143. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 486 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 69; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 507 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 59. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 214 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 5; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 224 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 5 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 82.07%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1.98. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 81.88%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.26; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 82.54%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 6.09. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.5 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.12. The total social inventory in the East China region is 56.15 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.27; the total social inventory in the South China region is 5.35 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.39 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, with an increase of 5313.26. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, with an increase of 3824.09. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, with an increase of 2871.41 [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.59%, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.29; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.45%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.15. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.37%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1.48; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.36%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1.47 [3] 3.7 Industry News - From February 14th to 20th, the PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.07%, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1.98%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 12.95% to 0%, among which the pipe operating rate decreased by 7.4% to 0%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 17.17% to 0%. As of February 20th, the PVC factory inventory was 50.49 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 61.85%; the PVC social inventory was 134.34 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.17%. From February 14th to 20th, the production cost of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5168.04 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 596.17 yuan/ton; the production cost of ethylene - based PVC was 4884.89 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 112.89 yuan/ton. V2605 fluctuated strongly and closed at 4963 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the domestic PVC operating rate increased by 1.98% to a high of 82.07% compared with before the festival. There are few maintenance plans for PVC in March, and liquid chlorine in East and North China is in a subsidy state. In the short term, PVC plants are expected to operate at a high level to dispose of liquid chlorine. Downstream enterprises are expected to resume work after the Lantern Festival. The "rush to export" operation of domestic enterprises' PVC is expected to continue in March, but from the perspective of the supply - demand balance in February, the "rush to export" has a relatively limited effect on alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction [3]