Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The supply-demand pattern of the chlor-alkali industry remains weak, with spot prices under pressure. Policy disturbances amplify price fluctuations in the futures market, but the fundamentals remain weak [1]. - For caustic soda, the spot price declined slightly this week. The low-concentration alkali in the mainstream regions faces significant pressure, and the unloading of the two major downstream industries remains difficult. The market continues to be weak. The short-term price is pressured by multiple factors and is expected to continue its weak trend next week [2]. - For PVC, the market was affected by policy news this week, with prices fluctuating sharply. The fundamentals have not changed much, with high开工 rates and stable supply growth. The terminal procurement demand is weak due to the off-season and insufficient downstream orders. The export increase is lower than expected, and the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support is temporarily stable. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC remain under pressure, but short-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by sentiment due to export policy changes [3]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda spot price declined slightly this week, and the low-concentration alkali in the mainstream regions faces significant pressure. The market continues to be weak. The short-term price is pressured by multiple factors and is expected to continue its weak trend next week [2]. - **Supply**: The industry's operating rate is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak, leading to an increase in inventory. As of Thursday, the weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 89.14%, a 0.23 percentage point increase from last week [21][27]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries' unloading remains difficult, and the alumina procurement price has been lowered. The demand for caustic soda is mainly driven by rigid needs, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been alleviated [2]. - **Alumina Impact**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned new alumina production capacity is 12.3 million tons (with 2 million tons for replacement), and the estimated annual production capacity growth rate is around 10%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to an additional 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year. The total demand increase for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons from April to June [32]. - **Export**: In November, the export of caustic soda weakened, but the estimated export profit increased slightly [56]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC market was affected by policy news this week, with prices fluctuating sharply. The fundamentals have not changed much, with high operating rates and stable supply growth. The terminal procurement demand is weak due to the off-season and insufficient downstream orders. The export increase is lower than expected, and the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support is temporarily stable. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC remain under pressure, but short-term price fluctuations are mainly driven by sentiment due to export policy changes [3]. - **Supply**: The production of calcium carbide is at a high level, and the profit is oscillating at the bottom. This week, the theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance (including long-term shutdown enterprises) was 38,580 tons, a 2,280 - ton increase from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss will increase slightly next week [66][73]. - **Demand**: The real - estate industry is still in the bottom - building cycle, and the demand for PVC from the real - estate sector is weak. The overall demand for PVC lacks positive drivers [74]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of PVC is still at the highest level in recent years, indicating significant inventory pressure [81]. - **External Market**: Some external market prices of PVC have increased month - on - month [88].