Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views Caustic Soda - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has high profits, driving an increase in restocking demand. In the East China region, downstream rigid demand provides support, resulting in low inventory pressure for enterprises. In the North, supply exceeds demand, while in the Southwest, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production drives a steady increase in raw material demand. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. With no significant positive support on the demand side, the downstream's acceptance of price increases is limited, and the enthusiasm for taking delivery is weak. In the coming week, the price in Shandong will generally remain stable, with a possible decline in the southwestern part of Shandong. In the later period, attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises. As the main delivery month approaches, the upward price range is expected to be limited [2]. - The 09 contract's fluctuation range is expected to be between 2,500 - 2,650 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for options [2]. PVC - This week, the PVC market was affected by the sentiment in the black sector and rumors in the salt chemical industry, causing the futures price to fluctuate repeatedly. The overall fundamentals have not changed significantly, with sufficient supply and no improvement in demand. Spot trading is dull. The release of new production capacity has added new pressure to the supply side. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure is still high, and the price is expected to weaken. However, attention should be paid to the potential boost of PVC prices by coking coal from the raw material side [3]. - For futures, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. For options, it is recommended to buy put options [3]. Summary by Catalog Caustic Soda Price and Market Trends - The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - economic conditions, alumina demand, and cost changes. For example, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the improvement of alumina profits have increased the willingness to purchase caustic soda in the spot market, driving up the futures price. On the other hand, factors such as the expected increase in new caustic soda production capacity, the decline in alumina support in the medium - term, and the decrease in costs have led to a downward trend in the futures price [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 87.34%, a decrease of 1.79 percentage points from 89.10% last week. There were still chlor - alkali plant overhauls or temporary shutdowns this week, and some enterprises adjusted production during off - peak periods, resulting in a decline in the operating load rate. The operating rate in Shandong was 87.15%, a decrease of 2.23% [25]. - On August 13, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 233,600 tons, an increase of 6.62% from 219,100 tons on August 6. In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises was 83,900 tons on August 13, an increase of 1.57% from 82,600 tons on August 6 [25]. Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will exceed 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons in demand from April to June [30]. - The spot trading volume of alumina has rebounded slightly. The opening rate of alumina plants has remained stable nationwide. The impact on caustic soda demand depends on whether the alumina bauxite shipment volume decreases [37]. PVC Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, weak domestic and foreign demand, and poor macro - market sentiment, showing a downward trend. However, factors such as policy expectations and low - price demand recovery have also led to short - term rebounds [63]. Supply - This week, the overall operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. There was only one new plant under overhaul this week, and the overhaul loss decreased compared with the previous week. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 78.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points, and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 77.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37 percentage points [85]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure, and the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real estate market, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," will continue to have a negative impact on demand. Domestic demand has not improved significantly. According to Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so it is difficult for PVC downstream demand to have positive drivers [95]. Inventory - The PVC inventory has continued to increase month - on - month, showing significant pressure. The social inventory in East and South China, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all increased [103]. Export - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with an average export price of $611 per ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.9605 million tons. The single - month export volume decreased by 27.61% month - on - month, increased by 21.03% year - on - year compared with the same month last year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 50.26% year - on - year. The import volume in June was 24,000 tons, with an average import price of $703 per ton. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 124,300 tons. The single - month import volume increased by 63.80% month - on - month, increased by 32.61% year - on - year compared with the same month last year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 0.51% year - on - year [121].