中辉能化观点 尿素 ★ 谨慎追涨 下行但仍处同期高位。需求端弱现实强预期，冬储需求走弱，复合肥开工高位下滑， 工业需求相对稳定；尿素及化肥（硫酸铵、氯化铵）出口相对较好，近期印度新一 轮尿素招标开启。社库持续去库（库存大幅低于去年同期）。在"出口配额制"及 "保供稳价"背景下，作为重要农资，尿素上有顶下有底。整体来看，尿素基本面 偏宽松，但市场存春季用肥预期及出口交易逻辑，需求端存支撑。节后延续震荡偏 强走势。 2 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价高位震荡，关注美伊谈判进展。地缘：地缘政治主导 油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核心驱动：供 | | 原油 | 高位震荡 | 给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+将于 4 月 | | ★ | | 继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘进展。 | | | | 美伊谈判尚未落地，跟随成本端油价高位震荡。成本端油价短期受地缘扰 | | LPG | 震荡 | 动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好； ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，外盘油价走强，节后首日内盘大概率高开补涨。地缘：地 | | 原油 | | 缘政治主导油价，美伊谈判达成协议难度较大，地缘落地前油价偏强；核 | | ★ | 看多 | 心驱动：供给仍偏过剩，3 月 1 日 OPEC+将举行线上会议，消息称 OPEC+ | | | 将于 | 4 月继续增产；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及中东地缘 | | | | 进展。 | | | | 成本端油价攀升，成本端利好，液化气震荡偏强。成本端油价短期受地缘 | | LPG ★ | 看多 | 扰动波动加剧，地缘落地前成本端利好；供需双增，商品量与下游化工开 | | | | 工率均上升；库存端偏利空，港口库存连续上升。 | | | | 春节期间现货信息停滞，预计节后开盘跟随成本端震荡偏强。节前标品装 | | L | 反弹 | 置陆续回归，基差持续偏弱震荡，两油石化库存降至 46 万吨，处于 5 年 | | ★ | | 同期最低位，预计节后石化库存累库至 90 万吨左右。后市检修力度并不 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, with some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong having shutdown plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to go up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. A bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, while the LL supply - demand balance sheet still faces pressure [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans are increasing. PP inventory is currently neutral, and the 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continued exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis improves slightly. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers. In the long - term, the domestic and foreign real - estate new - construction demand is still weak, and the PVC outlook is poor [5]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of various regions' methanol had different changes, such as the Jiangsu spot price dropping from 2208 to 2213, and the Northwest discounted price rising from 2405 to 2438. The import profit,主力基差, and 盘面MTO利润 also changed accordingly [2]. - **Market Situation**: The Iran conflict continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, and some plants have shutdown or production - reduction plans. It's difficult for methanol prices to move up or down, and a bearish view or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Plastics - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 690. The prices of various plastic products in different regions changed, such as the North China LL price dropping from 6630 to 6540. The import profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The oil - based and coal - based profits turn worse. The upstream coal - chemical industry and two - oil companies are destocking, while the social inventory accumulates this week. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the 05 PE supply growth is expected to be neutral, with the LL supply - demand balance sheet still under pressure [2]. PP - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6400, and the Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 785. The prices of various PP products in different regions changed, such as the East China PP price dropping from 6490 to 6540. The export profit,主力期货 price, and basis also had corresponding changes [3]. - **Market Situation**: The market is stable, with a weak basis. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume decreases slightly. The upstream oil - based profit is stable, and the PDH comprehensive profit improves. The downstream BOPP and plastic - weaving profits improve. The supply - side temporary maintenance plans increase, and the overall PP inventory is neutral. The 05 and subsequent supply - demand balance is expected to be slightly on the high side [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From February 6 to February 12, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2550, and the Shandong caustic soda price changed from 622 to 622. The prices of various PVC products in different regions changed, such as the calcium - carbide - based East China price dropping from 4810 to 4780. The export profit and basis also had corresponding changes [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis improves slightly. The ethylene - based FOB and calcium - carbide - based FOB prices need further observation. The coal and semi - coke prices are stable, and the semi - coke and calcium carbide profits are poor. The upstream starts up at a rate of 79.7%, and the downstream demand is stable. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the comprehensive profit is low. In the short term, the seasonal start - up recovers, and in the long - term, the real - estate new - construction demand is still weak [5].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/11 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/02/0 4 801 2250 2235 2380 - 2300 2398 268 323 -29 -40 - 2026/02/0 5 801 2205 2215 2380 - 2300 2398 264 323 -25 -35 - 2026/02/0 6 801 2208 2210 2375 - 2300 2405 262 323 -9 -35 - 2026/02/0 9 801 2210 2218 2395 - 2300 2470 262 323 -7 -30 - 2026/02/1 0 801 2210 2205 2398 - 2315 2443 - - - -40 - 日度变化 0 0 -13 3 - 15 -27 - - - -10 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **MEG**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish continuation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are fluctuating, causing short-term oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. However, the oversupply pattern remains unturned, and with the arrival of the off-season for demand, there is still downward pressure on oil prices [1][9]. - **LPG**: Cost support is weakening, and the chemical demand is also decreasing, leading to a weakening of LPG [1]. - **L**: Upstream inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish [1][20]. - **PP**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support [1][24]. - **PVC**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday [1][28]. - **PX/PTA**: The valuation level is reasonable. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. Although there is some inventory accumulation in January - February, the outlook is positive [2][30]. - **MEG**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [2][33]. - **Methanol**: The social and port inventories are decreasing. The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [3][37]. - **Urea**: The overall profit is good, and the start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [3][41]. - **Natural Gas**: The cold wave has weakened, and the export volume has increased. The short - term demand boost from the cold wave has been priced in, and the supply side is recovering, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gas prices [6]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side of oil prices is oscillating and adjusting, and the basis is weak. The disk valuation is high, and the short - term trend is weak. The supply - demand is generally loose, and the demand has entered the off - season [6]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory [6][57]. - **Soda Ash**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure [6][61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were oscillatory and slightly stronger. WTI rose 1.27%, Brent rose 1.45%, and the domestic SC rose 0.06% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term drivers are the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with high uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation. The supply side: OPEC+ maintains the production policy, and the US crude oil production is increasing. The demand side: India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. The inventory side: US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline inventories increased, and distillate inventories decreased [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. In the short - term, it is oscillatory and adjusting, with increased volatility. Pay attention to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The SC range is [465 - 485] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 9, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decrease. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4470 (+20) yuan/ton, 4475 (+0) yuan/ton, and 4765 (-65) yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - side oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical disturbances, but are under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, downstream chemical demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The number of warehouse receipts has increased [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to decline. In the short - term, the cost - side oil prices have increased uncertainties. The PG range is [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - **Market Review**: The L05 contract closed at 6721 yuan/ton, a 1.3% decrease. The L05 basis was - 131 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 56 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. During the pre - holiday period, there is a vacuum in fundamental demand. With the decline in ethane cost and an expected increase in supply, the fundamentals are bearish. The range is [6650 - 6850] [20]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP05 contract closed at 6691 yuan/ton, a 0.2% increase. The PP05 basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Basic Logic**: Propane prices are rising, strengthening the cost support of PDH. Before the holiday, there is insufficient supply - demand drive. The current fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, with a parking ratio of 20%, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are still at a low level, providing cost support. The range is [6550 - 6750] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V05 contract closed at 4981 yuan/ton, a 1.4% decrease. The V05 basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [26][27]. - **Basic Logic**: The March Formosa Plastics quotation has increased, and the profit of Shandong ECU has been significantly compressed. The downward space for liquid caustic soda is limited. Although there is short - term export rush, the high - inventory structure is difficult to change, suppressing the upward space. It is expected to oscillate before the holiday. The range is [4850 - 5050] [28]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: In terms of valuation, TA05 is at a relatively high level in the past three months. The supply side has some device changes, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The cost side of PX is in a weak balance. There is some inventory accumulation in January - February [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but short - term drivers are limited. Pay attention to capital behavior. Buy on significant corrections for the 05 contract. The TA05 range is [5110 - 5220] [31]. MEG - **Market Review**: The EG05 contract closed at 3959 yuan/ton. The East China basis was - 113 (-10) yuan/ton. - **Basic Logic**: The overall valuation is low. The supply side has an increase in domestic load, and overseas device maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in January - February. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - term contracts on dips. The EG05 range is [3680 - 3780] [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol main contract is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and overseas devices are expected to increase the load. The demand side has improved, and there is cost support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, but geopolitical conflicts still have uncertainties [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The January arrival volume slightly exceeded expectations, domestic start - up is at a high level, and port inventory has decreased. The demand side has stopped falling. Hold long positions. The MA05 range is [2219 - 2369] [39]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea main contract closed at 1776 yuan/ton. The Shandong small - particle basis was 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low. The overall start - up load is continuously increasing. The demand side is short - term strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Under the background of "export quota system" and "supply guarantee and price stabilization", the price has a ceiling and a floor [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Supply and demand are both strong, but downstream demand is entering the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. The UR05 range is [1760 - 1790] [43]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 6, the NG main contract closed at 3.405 dollars/million British thermal units, a 3.16% decrease. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.030 (-0.600) dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 13.417 (+0.815) dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3821 (-75) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the impact of the US cold wave has decreased, and the demand - side support is gradually weakening, leading to a weakening of gas prices. The cost - profit situation shows a decline in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply side: US LNG exports decreased in January, and the number of natural gas rigs increased. The demand side: Japan's LNG imports decreased in 2025. The inventory side: US natural gas inventories decreased [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the Northern Hemisphere winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply side is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices. The NG range is [2.900 - 3.400] [48]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 9, the BU main contract closed at 3324 yuan/ton, a 1.54% decrease. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3210 (-30) yuan/ton, 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, and 3310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, causing oil prices to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in asphalt comprehensive profit. The supply side: The domestic asphalt production in February 2026 decreased. The demand side: The asphalt import and export volume increased in 2025. The inventory side: The social inventory of 70 sample enterprises increased [52]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply - side uncertainty has increased. Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about geopolitical risks. The BU range is [3300 - 3400] [53]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG05 contract closed at 1078 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase. The FG05 basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [55][56]. - **Basic Logic**: Pay attention to the sustainability of supply reduction. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of both weak supply and demand. The enterprise inventory is slightly increasing at a high level, and the demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The daily melting volume has decreased, and more supply reduction is needed to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. The FG range is [1030 - 1080] [57]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA05 contract closed at 1181 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease. The SA05 basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and industrial hedging is exerting pressure. The real - estate demand is continuously weak, and the heavy - soda demand support is insufficient. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the supply is expected to be under pressure. Short - sell on rallies before further maintenance intensifies. The SA range is [1150 - 1200] [61].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 2225 to 2210, the华南现货 price increased from 2223 to 2218, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2395. The西北折盘面 price increased from 2385 to 2470. The进口利润 improved from -36 to -25, and the主力基差 improved from -45 to -30 [2]. Core View - The conflict in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance, with Xingxing shutting down, Shenghong shutting down in February, and Luxi shutting down next week. Others also have plans to reduce production, waiting to restart after the situation in Iran normalizes. Currently, it is difficult for methanol prices to go up or down. The MTO profit caps the upper limit, and unless other downstream products increase in price, a bearish outlook or selling call options is more appropriate [2]. Group 3: Plastic Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the东北亚乙烯 price decreased from 695 to 690. The华北LL price decreased from 6680 to 6570, the华东LL price remained at 6875, and the华东LD price decreased from 8875 to 8650. The LL进口利润 decreased from 91 to -91, and the主力期货 price decreased from 6865 to 6721. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 43, and the仓单 remained at 9428 [2]. Core View - The futures market is oscillating, the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with North China - East China at -80, a decrease of 30; South China - East China at 50, an increase of 50. Crude oil is oscillating, the oil - based profit is deteriorating, and the coal - based profit is also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. Upstream coal chemical industry is destocking, and the two major oil companies are destocking. Social inventory has increased this week, with HD inventory at a low level, LD inventory increasing, and LL inventory slightly higher than normal. From the supply side, the growth rate of standard product supply is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, there were few maintenance in January, and the full - density production has recovered. In the future, supply will recover. According to the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for 05 is neutral, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under relatively high pressure [2]. Group 4: PP Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the山东丙烯 price remained at 6400, the东北亚丙烯 price remained at 785. The华东PP price increased from 6610 to 6530, the华北PP price decreased from 6638 to 6588, and the山东粉料 price decreased from 6520 to 6500. The PP美金 price decreased from 825 to 835, and the出口利润 improved from -57 to -37. The主力期货 price decreased from 6730 to 6630, and the基差 remained at -140. The两油库存 decreased from 51 to 42, and the仓单 decreased from 17223 to 17195 [3]. Core View - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225, with the export volume slightly decreasing month - on - month. The domestic regional price difference shows North China - East China at -70, an increase of 35; South China - East China at 100, a decrease of 30. In terms of upstream profits, the oil - based profit is stable, the PDH comprehensive profit is -970, an increase of 230, and the PHD operating rate is stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving have improved. The number of temporary maintenance plans on the supply side has increased, and the supply in January is flat month - on - month. Downstream purchases slightly at low prices during the festival. Upstream, the two major oil companies are destocking, the coal chemical industry is increasing inventory, and social inventory is increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is neutral. According to the balance sheet, the outlook for 05 and the following periods is slightly on the high side, and PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed for improvement [3]. Group 5: PVC Analysis Data Summary - From February 3rd to 9th, the西北电石 price remained at 2550, the山东烧碱 price decreased from 622 to 617. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4860 to 4830, and the进口美金价 remained at 700. The出口利润 decreased from 268 to 186, and the基差 remained at -220 [4][5]. Core View - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 575, and that of calcium carbide - based PVC is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. The coal price is 600, unchanged, and the semi - coke price is 820, unchanged. The semi - coke profit is poor, and the calcium carbide profit is also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali is around -600. The ethylene - calcium carbide price is stable. Upstream, the operating rate this week is 79.7%, an increase of 1.1%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9, an increase of 0.4w, the PVC social inventory is 111.4w, an increase of 5w, with 106w in East China, an increase of 5w, and 5.4w in South China, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly high, and the export volume is flat month - on - month. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the seasonal operating rate is recovering, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large, and the sustainability of future exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for PVC remains poor [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Oscillatory adjustment [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Short position continues [1] - **PP**: Short position continues [1] - **PVC**: Range-bound oscillation [1] - **PX/PTA**: High-level consolidation [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Oscillatory consolidation [6] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [6] - **Glass**: Low-level oscillation [6] - **Soda Ash**: Short position continues [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Wait for the outcome of the US-Iran negotiation. Oil prices are adjusting oscillatory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the supply surplus pattern remains unturned. There is still downward pressure on oil prices [1]. - The cost support for LPG weakens, and the chemical demand also weakens, leading to a downward trend [1]. - The upstream inventory of L drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed, and the post - holiday verification situation should be concerned [1]. - PP follows the cost in the short term. The supply - demand is weak, and the supply pressure is relieved. The cost has support, and the subsequent demand verification situation should be concerned [1]. - The weekly export order volume of PVC weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [1]. - The valuation of PX/PTA is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. The outlook is positive [2]. - The valuation of MEG is overall low. The supply increases, the demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [2]. - The social and port inventories of methanol are being depleted. The supply is slightly loose, the demand improves, and the cost has support [3]. - The comprehensive profit of urea is good. The supply is under pressure, the demand is temporarily supported, and the price is range - bound under the policy [3]. - The cold wave weakens while the export increases, and the natural gas price is in consolidation [6]. - The asphalt valuation is high, the supply - demand is loose, and the demand enters the off - season, so the price has room for compression [6]. - The glass market maintains a weak supply - demand pattern. The inventory accumulates slightly, and the supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory [6]. - The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On the previous Friday, international oil prices adjusted oscillatory. WTI rose 0.41%, Brent rose 0.74%, and domestic SC fell 0.36% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, waiting for the outcome of the US - Iran negotiation. The core driving factor is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the global crude oil inventory is accumulating rapidly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains the production policy. The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East rises. The US crude oil production increases, and the production of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield recovers. India's crude oil imports in December increased by 1.6% month - on - month. As of the week ending January 30, the US crude oil inventory decreased by 3.45 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 0.684 million barrels, distillate inventory decreased by 5.552 million barrels, and the strategic crude oil reserve increased by 0.214 million barrels [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, it is in oscillatory adjustment, and the fluctuation increases. Pay attention to the geopolitical progress in the Middle East. SC focuses on the range of [460 - 480] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On February 6, the PG main contract closed at 4,228 yuan/ton, up 0.74% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,450 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,475 (+29) yuan/ton, and 4,830 (-15) yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price mainly depends on the cost - end oil price. In the short - term, the oil price rebounds due to geopolitical disturbances, but is under pressure in the long - term. The supply is stable, the downstream chemical demand weakens, and the inventory accumulates [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. In the short - term, the oil price is uncertain, and the fundamentals are bearish. PG focuses on the range of [4150 - 4250] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L01, L05 (main contract), and L09 increased by 0.2%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 192 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 52 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream inventory drops to the low level of the same period. During the pre - holiday fundamental demand vacuum period, cautious operation is needed. The cost - end oil and ethane prices fall, the linear production remains at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: L focuses on the range of [6700 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP01, PP05 (main contract), and PP09 increased by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 56 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 32 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it follows the cost. The off - season leads to inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The supply - demand is weak, the shutdown ratio is 20%, the supply pressure is relieved, and the cost has support. Pay attention to the subsequent demand verification [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PP focuses on the range of [6550 - 6750] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of V01, V05 (main contract), and V09 decreased by 1.3%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 221 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was - 113 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Basic Logic**: The weekly export order volume weakens, and the social inventory reaches a new high. The chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit remains at a low level, and the bottom cost has support. The long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to reverse [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: V focuses on the range of [4850 - 5050] [27]. PX/PTA - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is reasonable. The supply slightly increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the cost follows the oil price. PTA accumulates inventory seasonally in January - February, but the outlook is positive [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are expected to improve. Pay attention to the capital behavior. Buy on significant pullbacks for the 05 contract and control the position. TA05 focuses on the range of [5110 - 5220] [30]. MEG - **Market Review**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 changed. The main contract's basis was - 113 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 114 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is low. The domestic supply load increases, the overseas device maintenance increases, the downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the inventory accumulates in the short term. The outlook is expected to improve in March - April [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the near - month contract on dips. EG05 focuses on the range of [3680 - 3780] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract of methanol is at a high valuation level in the past three months. The comprehensive profit is - 250.9 (-15.9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis is - 39 (-28) [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device starts to increase the load, and the overseas device load is expected to increase. The import volume in January is 125.9wt. The demand stops falling, and the cost has weak support. The fundamentals are slightly loose, and the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The import volume in January slightly exceeds expectations, the domestic start - up maintains a high level, and the port inventory is slightly depleted. The demand stops falling. Hold long positions. MA05 focuses on the range of [2219 - 2369] [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,776 yuan/ton, at the 77.8% quantile level in the past year. The Shandong small - particle basis is 4 (+2) yuan/ton, and the UR5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the supply pressure is large, the demand is temporarily supported, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. Under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stabilization" policy, the price has a ceiling and a floor [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply and demand are both strong, but the downstream demand enters the holiday off - season, and the support is expected to weaken. Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focuses on the range of [1760 - 1790] [42]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On February 5, the NG main contract closed at 3.516 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.68% month - on - month. The US Henry Hub spot price was 4.630 (-0.690) US dollars/million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot price was 12.602 (-0.415) US dollars/million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was 3,896 (-18) yuan/ton [44]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold wave impact on the US natural gas price has gradually subsided. The domestic LNG retail profit increases. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand in Japan decreases. The US natural gas inventory decreases [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In winter, the demand for combustion and heating increases, but the supply is relatively sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. NG focuses on the range of [2.979 - 3.522] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On February 6, the BU main contract closed at 3,386 yuan/ton, up 1.41% month - on - month. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 3,240 (-10) yuan/ton, 3,270 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3,310 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the oil price is oscillatory and strong. The asphalt comprehensive profit decreases. The supply decreases in February, the demand increases in 2025, and the inventory rises [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is high, and the supply uncertainty increases. Pay attention to the import of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks. BU focuses on the range of [3300 - 3400] [51]. Glass - **Market Review**: The prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 decreased by 1.0%, 1.5%, and 1.5% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 52 yuan/ton, and the FG59 spread was - 99 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The inventory accumulates slightly, the demand enters the off - season, and the daily melting volume drops. The supply needs to be further reduced to digest the high inventory. Be cautious about chasing up before the cold - repair is further implemented [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on the range of [1030 - 1080] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 decreased by 1.1%, 1.6%, and 1.6% respectively. The main contract's basis was - 55 yuan/ton, and the SA59 spread was - 63 yuan/ton [57][58]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand for heavy soda ash declines, the inventory rises, the supply is under pressure due to the new production and maintenance. Short - sell on rallies before the maintenance further intensifies [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on the range of [1150 - 1200] [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][5][7] 2. Core Views - For methanol, the situation in Iran continues to ferment, MTO shows resistance with several plant shutdowns and production cuts planned. The price is likely to be range - bound, with the MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options may be appropriate [2] - For plastics, the futures market fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in May is expected to face significant pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, the basis is weak. The import and export profits are negative, and the export volume declines slightly. The overall inventory is neutral, and the supply - demand balance in May and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [5] - For PVC, the basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average. The overall profit is low, the inventory is moderately high, and the long - term outlook is poor due to weak real - estate demand [6][7] 3. Summary by Different Categories Methanol - **Price Changes**: From 2026/01/30 to 2026/02/05, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 70, the price of South China spot decreased by 20, and the main contract basis changed from - 55 to - 35 [2] - **Market Situation**: Iran's situation affects the market, MTO plants show resistance, and the price is restricted by MTO profit [2] Plastics - **Price and Basis**: The futures price of L fluctuates, the spot price is stable, and the basis is weak. The regional basis and price differences change [2] - **Profit and Inventory**: The oil - and coal - based production profits decline, the upstream coal chemical industry and Sinopec & PetroChina reduce inventory, while the social inventory accumulates. The supply of standard products increases [2] PP - **Price and Basis**: The futures price is stable, the basis is weak, and the regional price differences change [5] - **Profit and Inventory**: The import and export profits are negative, the downstream profit improves, the supply has temporary maintenance plans, and the inventory situation is complex with overall neutrality [5] PVC - **Price and Basis**: The basis improves slightly, the trading volume is average, and the prices of raw materials and products change [6][7] - **Profit and Inventory**: The comprehensive profit is low, the upstream starts production at a moderate rate, the demand is stable, the inventory is moderately high, and the export remains stable [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the Iran conflict continues to escalate, MTO shows resistance with some plants shutting down. Methanol faces difficulties moving up or down, with MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options seems appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is growing, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is expected to face significant pressure in the future [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. The overall inventory is neutral, and the balance sheet for 05 and later is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook remains poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2267 to 2237, a decrease of 38 [2]. - Market Situation: The Iran conflict affects the market. MTO plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi are shutting down or planning to reduce production, waiting for the situation in Iran to normalize [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 700 (except for February 2 when it was not provided). The华北LL price dropped from 6740 to 6730, a decrease of 100 [2]. - Market Situation: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changing regional price differences. The oil - and coal - based production profits are deteriorating, and the supply is expected to increase in the future [2]. PP - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the山东丙烯 price remained stable at 6370. The华东PP price dropped from 6670 to 6615, a decrease of 55 [3]. - Market Situation: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has decreased slightly. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans have increased, and the overall inventory is neutral [3]. PVC - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the西北电石 price increased from 2450 to 2550, an increase of 50. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4720 to 4830, an increase of 50 [4][5]. - Market Situation: The basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low. The short - term seasonal production recovery is underway, and long - term real - estate demand is weak [5].

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical is undertaking a significant capital operation to enhance its carbon two industry assets amid cyclical adjustments in the chemical industry, with a planned capital increase of up to 19.086 billion yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Wanhua Olefins [1][2] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase amounts to 19.086 billion yuan, achieved through a combination of asset injection and debt-to-equity conversion, rather than direct cash outlay [1][2] - Wanhua Chemical will inject approximately 14.586 billion yuan worth of integrated ethylene-related assets and 4.5 billion yuan of debt into Wanhua Olefins, raising the subsidiary's registered capital from 3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The capital operation aims to consolidate the management of two 1 million-ton ethylene facilities under a single legal entity, enhancing operational efficiency and optimizing the subsidiary's capital structure [2][3] - This strategic move is intended to create a more competitive carbon two industry platform, allowing for better resource allocation and cost reduction [2][3] Group 3: Financial Context - Wanhua Chemical has faced financial pressure due to aggressive capacity expansion and high leverage, with significant capital expenditures leading to increased reliance on external financing [3][4] - Despite achieving a revenue of 144.226 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.45% year-on-year to 9.157 billion yuan, indicating a decline in profitability despite revenue growth [3][4] Group 4: Market Challenges - The company has noted that the petrochemical industry is experiencing price declines due to an oversupply of ethylene and other products, which has compressed profit margins [4] - The capital increase is seen as a strategic response to external market uncertainties, aiming to build a healthier financial and operational platform for Wanhua Olefins [4]