中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+继续扩产，淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动。库存方面，进入消费淡季， | | 原油 | | 美国库存上升，但库存绝对值不高，下方存一定支撑；供需方面，OPEC+10 | | | 谨慎看空 月 | 5 日会议计划于 11 月继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下 | | ★ | | 行压力较大，重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略： | | | | 空单继续持有同时购买看涨期权。 | | | | 油价中枢下移，沙特 CP 价格下调，成本端偏空。成本端原油供给过剩压 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 力仍在，沙特下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基 | | ★ | | 差回归至正常；供给端相对充足，厂内库存上升；下游化工需求有所回升。 | | | | 策略：供需矛盾不大，走势跟随油价，空单继续持有。 | | L | | 短期跟随成本波动为主，节中原油稳中小跌，成本支撑转弱。节前两油聚 | | | 空头盘整 | 烯烃库存降至 59 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/09/23 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/09/1 6 801 2290 2288 2580 2555 2570 2735 266 326 0 -105 -1255 2025/09/1 7 801 2282 2283 2590 2555 2570 2715 266 326 -9 -100 -1255 2025/09/1 8 801 2267 2270 2585 2545 2570 2690 262 326 -10 -110 -1255 2025/09/1 9 801 2260 2268 2580 2545 2570 2685 262 326 6 -105 -1255 2025/09/2 2 801 2257 2258 2563 2545 2570 2685 262 326 6 -110 -1255 日度变化 0 -3 -10 -17 0 0 0 0 0 0 -5 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性备货需求+联泓 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/22 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/09/1 5 801 2293 2290 2580 2520 2565 2713 266 326 12 -100 -1322 2025/09/1 6 801 2290 2288 2580 2555 2570 2735 266 326 0 -105 -1255 2025/09/1 7 801 2282 2283 2590 2555 2570 2715 266 326 -9 -100 -1255 2025/09/1 8 801 2267 2270 2585 2545 2570 2690 262 326 -10 -110 -1255 2025/09/1 9 801 2260 2268 2580 2545 2570 2690 262 326 6 -105 -1255 日度变化 0 -7 -2 -5 0 0 0 0 0 16 5 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. There is seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from the new Lianhong device in the inland, but the port will cause continuous reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the semi - coke cost is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货,江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面,CFR中国,CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差,盘面MTO利润 are 0, - 8, - 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850 on September 12 - 17. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 had certain fluctuations. The import profit was - 76 on September 15 - 17. The主力期货 price and基差 also changed. The two - oil inventory was 66 throughout, and the仓单 increased from 11993 on September 11 to 12736 on September 15 - 17. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚,PP美金,PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存,仓单 had different changes. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 0, 10, - 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价 (CFR中国),出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润,基差 (高端交割品) had certain changes. The daily change of西北电石 on September 17 compared to the previous day was 50, and other items had no change [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/15 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/09/0 8 801 2285 2270 2545 2485 2495 2680 263 323 15 -130 -1295 2025/09/0 9 801 2285 2273 2560 2520 2495 2698 263 323 14 -125 -1295 2025/09/1 0 801 2302 2290 2590 2520 2565 2728 266 326 -3 -125 -1295 2025/09/1 1 801 2292 2280 2590 2520 2565 2723 263 326 13 -110 -1295 2025/09/1 2 801 2290 2275 2585 2520 2565 2723 263 326 13 -95 -1295 日度变化 0 -2 -5 -5 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 观点 仍是交易港口压力传导到内地得逻辑，内地后期有季节性 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给过剩压力上升，油价趋势向下。EIA 最新数据显示，美国商业原油和 | | 原油 | | 成品油库存上升，SPR 累库量增快，消费旺季结束，需求端支撑减弱；供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需方面，9 月 7 日，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡 | | | | 点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气上方承压。成本端原油需求下降供给增加，供给过剩 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 压力上升，仍有下探空间；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平； | | ★ | | PDH 开工率环比下降，但需求尚可，开工率超过 70%；供给端和库存变化 | | | | 不大，偏中性。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 仓单大幅增加，产业套保施压，盘面增仓破位下跌。期现齐跌，基差小幅 | | L | | 走强。基本面短期供需矛盾并不突出，但对后续市场偏悲观，上行驱动不 | | | 空头延续 | 足。本周产量下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The market is trading on the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Inland regions will have seasonal stocking demand and increased stocking from the new Lianhong plant, but continuous reverse flow from ports will impact inland prices. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices, and the inland situation is crucial. Xingxing is expected to resume operations in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will lower inland valuations. With average valuations and inventory and weak drivers, it's advisable to wait before bottom - fishing. Import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian methanol and unplanned maintenance should be monitored [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis for the 09 contract is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. International prices in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. In September, the number of maintenance activities is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US price quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are reducing inventory. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year, and non - standard price differentials are neutral. Prices in Europe and America are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are currently average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH plant maintenance activities, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] PVC - The basis for the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are seasonally under maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [8] 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2255 to 2302, and the South China spot price increased from 2250 to 2290. Other regional prices also showed certain changes. The import profit remained at 323, and the main contract basis and MTO profit on the disk remained relatively stable [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 840. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, and East China HD remained stable. The import profit remained around - 180 - 190, and the main futures price decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the warehouse receipts increased by 887 [6] PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6590 to 6500 and then increased to 6650. The Northeast Asia propylene price remained at 760. The East China PP and North China PP prices showed minor fluctuations. The export profit remained around - 15, and the main futures price decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory remained at 67, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 64 [8] PVC - **Price Data**: From September 4th to 10th, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2300 to 2400 and then remained stable. The Shandong caustic soda price increased from 882 to 902 and then decreased to 897. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and the Northwest, and ethylene - based PVC in East China remained relatively stable. The import price (CFR China) remained at 700, and other profit and basis data remained stable [8]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemical Team - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] Group 2: Methanol Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the prices of江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚, 进口利润, 主力基差, 盘面MTO利润 showed various changes, with the日度变化 of西南折盘面 increasing by 5 and西北折盘面 decreasing by 2 [2] Core View - The current trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase of Iranian products and unplanned maintenance [2] Group 3: Plastic (Polyethylene) Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the prices of东北亚乙烯 remained stable, while the prices of华东LD increased by 10 and华东HD decreased by 20. The主力期货 decreased by 18, and the基差 increased by 20 [6] Core View - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The upstream two major oil companies and coal chemical industry are destocking, and the social inventory is flat. The downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09基差 is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe and the United States are stable, and Southeast Asia is also stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Group 4: PP (Polypropylene) Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the price of山东丙烯 increased by 30,华东PP increased by 30, and华北PP decreased by 15. The主力期货 decreased by 22 [8] Core View - For polypropylene, the upstream two major oil companies and the middle - stream are destocking. In terms of valuation, the基差 is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and the United States are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawing materials is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [8] Group 5: PVC Analysis Price Data - From August 27 to September 2, the price of电石法 - 华东 increased by 20 [8] Core View - The基差 of PVC maintains at 01 - 240, and the factory - delivered基差 is - 440. The downstream start - up rate has partially increased seasonally, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB390. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [8]

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bearish [1] - PP: Cautiously bearish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bearish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply glut leads to weakening oil prices, but downside support is rising; short - term there may be a small rebound [1]. - LPG has a low valuation, and its position has risen to a recent high, increasing the rebound momentum [1]. - Cost support for L has weakened, while the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - The cost of PP continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, and the export profit margin has turned negative, with weak downstream restocking power [1]. - The upstream operation of PVC has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks; the supply - demand pattern is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [1]. - The supply - demand of PX is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high; the cost support of oil prices is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of PTA devices has little change, the demand is weak, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - The operation of ethylene glycol devices has increased slightly, the arrival and import are lower than the same period, and the demand is weak [1]. - As the delivery month approaches, the market focus of glass has shifted from macro - policy expectations to its own fundamentals, and the inventory has stopped falling and started to increase [2]. - The pattern of the soda ash industry has not improved significantly, the supply is high, and the inventory has increased [2]. - The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially, showing a supply - surplus situation [2]. - The domestic methanol maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high; the demand is expected to weaken [2]. - The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good [2]. - The cost of asphalt has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, and the supply - demand has decreased, with a neutral - bearish fundamental situation [2]. - The spot price of propylene in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the downstream demand has not kept up, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 0.73%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC up slightly by 0.02% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The support of the peak season for oil prices is gradually decreasing, and the pressure of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices is gradually rising. The oil price still has compression space, but the downside support is gradually strengthening, and it may be suppressed around $60 in the medium - to - long term [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In May, US crude oil production increased by 24,000 barrels per day to 13.488 million barrels per day; in July, Kazakhstan supplied 160,000 tons of oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline; in July, the crude oil shipped from Russian ports was 3.46 million barrels per day. As of August 3, the arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries decreased by 190,000 tons, a decline of 8.18%. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. After taking profit on short positions, you can wait and see. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 505] [6]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 7, the PG main contract closed at 3,837 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, the basis is at a high level, and the position has risen rapidly recently. As of August 7, the number of warehouse receipts was 10,199 lots, up 480 lots month - on - month. As of the week of August 8, the LPG commodity volume was 529,200 tons, up 2,700 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the center of gravity is expected to move down. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound. Try to go long with a light position. Pay attention to the range of PG [3750 - 3870] [11]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7,297 yuan/ton, and the L9 - 1 spread was - 67 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support has weakened, the spot price has stabilized and rebounded, and the basis has strengthened. Most devices have restarted recently, and the supply pressure has increased marginally. The social inventory has accumulated for 6 consecutive weeks. As the delivery month approaches, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,075 yuan/ton, and the PP9 - 1 spread was - 31 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost continues to fall, the total commercial inventory continues to accumulate, the export profit margin has turned negative, and the downstream restocking power is weak. The basis for further negative fundamentals is limited, and there is technical support at the bottom [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually when the price is low [25]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5,046 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 251 lots [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream operation has increased, and the social inventory has accumulated for 7 consecutive weeks. The calcium carbide price has risen continuously, and the cost support has improved. New production capacity will be released in August, and the supply - demand is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then go short. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5200] [32]. 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,812 yuan/ton. The PX9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 118 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have little change. The PXN spread is at a low level in the same period of the past five years. The demand has weakened slightly but is expected to improve. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is still relatively high [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to low - buying opportunities; at the same time, sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX [6700 - 6790] [37]. 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 1, the PTA price in East China was 4,740 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,744 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was - 4 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The operation of the devices has decreased slightly. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand tight - balance in August is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of TA [4640 - 4710] [41]. 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,405 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, and the basis in East China was 75 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas devices have increased their load slightly, but the arrival and import are still lower than the same period. The demand of downstream polyester and terminal weaving is weak. The supply - demand is in a tight balance in July and August, and the inventory is low [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, pay attention to high - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4360 - 4410] [45]. 3.9 Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation has continued to decline, the futures price has fallen slightly, the basis in Hubei has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased [48]. - **Basic Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy expectation is repeated, the market risk preference has declined, and the sentiment is cautious. A glass production line has been restarted, the production has increased, the sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG2509 [1050, 1080] [50]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has declined, the futures price has fallen slightly, the negative basis has expanded, and the number of warehouse receipts and forecasts has increased [53]. - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down. The supply has increased slightly this week, and the inventory has ended three weeks of destocking. The supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly, and the fundamentals are bearish [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.11 Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda has declined, the futures price has fallen, the center of gravity has moved down, the main - contract basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [58]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong are abundant. The terminal alumina industry's demand for caustic soda is low, and the non - aluminum terminal demand is limited. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the demand has not improved substantially [59]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not clearly stated in the text. 3.12 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,385 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 yuan/ton. The basis in East China was 2 yuan/ton, the port basis was - 8 yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 spread was - 92 yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit was 61 US dollars/ton [61]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices have resumed production, the overseas devices' load has increased, and the arrival volume in August is expected to be high. The demand is expected to weaken, the social inventory has accumulated, and the cost support has stabilized [62]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions at high prices for the 09 contract and sell call options; pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. Take profit on the MA9 - 1 spread gradually when it rebounds. Pay attention to the range of MA [2355 - 2400] [63]. 3.13 Urea - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The operation load of urea devices is expected to increase next week, the domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, the factory inventory has decreased but is still high compared with the same period, and the export is relatively good [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully for the 09 contract and pay attention to low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [2]. 3.14 Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil has compression space, the supply of raw materials is sufficient, the supply - demand has decreased, the inventory has accumulated, and the fundamental situation is neutral - bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3450 - 3550] [2]. 3.15 Propylene - **Market Review**: Not clearly stated in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in East China and Shandong has increased, the cost support has weakened, the upstream operation rate has decreased marginally, the downstream demand has not kept up, and the factory inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, with obvious surplus pressure [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [2].