Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is becoming a "safe haven" for capital, with significant growth in sub-industries such as synthetic resins and adhesives, indicating a transition from "overcapacity" to "tight supply-demand balance" in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:40, the Petrochemical ETF (159731) decreased by 0.12%, while stocks like Sanmei Co., China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum saw notable gains [1] - The latest scale of the Petrochemical ETF is 167 million yuan, with a record share of 198 million, both reaching new highs [1] Group 2: Sub-industry Growth - Synthetic resins and adhesives have experienced rapid growth, with prices doubling since April, driven by companies like Aowei New Materials, which has seen its stock price surge over 15 times this year [1] - Other chemical sub-industries, including nylon and polyurethane, have also shown upward trends [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, products with high correlation to demand in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit first from macroeconomic improvements, while those linked to emerging markets will recover later [1] - MDI and PVC (polyvinyl chloride) are anticipated to be the most certain products for future growth [1] Group 4: Industry Composition - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% of the index [1] - Ongoing government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the chemical industry are a core support for the sector's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has officially approved the launch of monthly average futures contracts for LLDPE, PVC, and PP, set to take effect on July 25, 2025, marking a significant upgrade in pricing mechanisms for these essential materials [16][32]. Group 1: Introduction of Monthly Average Futures - The new monthly average futures contracts will not involve physical delivery but will settle based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures over the month [16][32]. - This innovation aims to provide enterprises with a more stable pricing reference, aligning with the continuous production and batch purchasing needs of businesses [17][19]. Group 2: Operational Details - The trading codes for the new contracts will be structured as follows: L for LLDPE, V for PVC, and PP for PP, followed by the contract month and an "F" to denote the monthly average [21][23]. - For example, the contract L2509F represents the LLDPE monthly average futures for September 2025 [23]. Group 3: Market Demand and Benefits - There is a growing market demand for a transparent and authoritative monthly average pricing reference system, which the DCE's new futures contracts aim to fulfill [32]. - The introduction of these contracts is expected to stabilize costs for companies, allowing them to lock in monthly prices and reduce the anxiety associated with daily price fluctuations [19][32]. Group 4: Risk Management and Settlement Mechanism - The DCE has designed a detailed settlement and risk management mechanism to ensure the smooth operation of the monthly average futures [34][40]. - The settlement price will be calculated based on the average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures, with more recent prices given higher weight [38][40]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The launch of monthly average futures is not just a tool upgrade but represents a deeper evolution in futures services for the real economy, enhancing the stability of the entire industrial chain [42][45]. - This development signifies a step towards a more mature pricing system in the Chinese market, reflecting the growing importance of these materials in everyday life and their role in market pricing dynamics [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the commodities in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with some rated as "Bearish" or "Bearish Consolidation" [1][3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical market is bearish, mainly due to factors such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and weakening demand [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply surplus and geopolitical easing lead to weak oil prices. OPEC+ plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventories are continuously accumulating [1] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [12] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical speculation causes a rebound, but the cost - end oil price drags down, and the upside is pressured. There are concerns about increased transportation costs, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy**: Use a double - option strategy. Focus on the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [17] L (PE) - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have not stopped falling, and the basis weakens significantly. New production capacity is put into operation, and supply remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking power is insufficient [21] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 7000] [21] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the basis weakens. Post - holiday inventory reduction is slow, and supply - demand remains loose. There is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [26] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [26] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to a slight reduction in social inventory, but supply is strong and demand is weak. New production capacity will be released, and there is uncertainty in export anti - dumping duties [30] - **Strategy**: Treat the short - term rebound with caution and take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of V [4600 - 4800] [30] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price is under pressure. The PXN spread is relatively high this year, and the short - process PX - MX spread is also high [33] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of PX [6310 - 6400] [34] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side start - up load increases, and demand has a "Silver October" consumption peak expectation. The cost - end oil price drops, and the processing fee is low [37] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of TA [4400 - 4460] [38] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices increase production, overseas devices change little. Terminal consumption improves in the short term but is under pressure in the long term. New device production and inventory accumulation [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [4020 - 4090] [42] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [1] - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is short - term bearish. Supply pressure is large, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is stabilizing [46] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of MA [2280 - 2320] [48] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [51] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is not high. Pay attention to the Indian urea tender. Consider going long with a light position in the medium - to - long - term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuations. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat compared to the previous period, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8]. - PVC: The basis of 01 contract maintains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operation starts are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, semi - coke costs are stable, and calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation starts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu spot, South China spot, and other regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2290 on September 16 to 2257 on September 22, with a daily change of - 3 [2]. - Profit Data: Import profit was mainly 0 or - 9, - 10, 6; the main contract basis was around - 100 to - 1255; the MTO profit on the disk was - 1255 [2]. Plastic - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 (except for September 19 - 22 when it was 845). The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had some changes. For example, North China LL decreased from 7130 on September 16 to 7070 on September 22, with a daily change of - 30 [6]. - Inventory and Profit Data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 67 on September 16 to 63 on September 22. Import profit was mainly - 22, - 12, - 66 [6]. PP - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 on September 16 to 6500 on September 22, with a daily change of - 80. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, East China PP decreased from 6840 on September 16 to 6770 on September 22, with a daily change of - 25 [8]. - Inventory and Profit Data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 67 on September 16 to 63 on September 22. Export profit was mainly - 19, - 30, - 26, - 24 [8]. PVC - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2500 on September 16 to 2600 on September 19 and remained at 2600 on September 22. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4830 on September 16 to 4810 on September 22, with a daily change of - 20 [8]. - Profit Data: Export profit was 342, 335, 336; Northwest comprehensive profit was 356; North China comprehensive profit was - 244; the basis of high - end delivery products was - 150 [8].

Group 1: Methanol - The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial later [2]. - Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's still necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - From September 15th to 19th, the price of动力煤期货remained unchanged at 801, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 7 to 2260, and the import profit increased by 16 to 6 [2]. Group 2: Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical enterprises are destocking, social inventory remains flat, downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral [6]. - The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now [6]. - Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large [6]. - From September 15th to 19th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 850, the North China LL price decreased by 20 to 7100, and the主力期货price decreased by 19 to 7169 [6]. Group 3: Polypropylene - Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream enterprises are destocking. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year [7]. - The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is fluctuating, and powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral [7]. - Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [7]. - From September 15th to 19th, the Shandong propylene price remained at 6580, the华东PP price decreased by 35 to 6795, and the仓单decreased by 177 to 13499 [7]. Group 4: PVC - The basis maintains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating [7]. - During summer, Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. The recent short - term export orders have slightly declined [7]. - Coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure with PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. - From September 15th to 19th, the Shandong caustic soda price decreased by 8 to 817, and the电石法 - 华东price increased by 30 to 4830 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is the transmission of port pressure to the inland. There is seasonal stocking demand and incremental stocking from the new Lianhong device in the inland, but the port will cause continuous reverse flow impact. The current price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland behavior is crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. It's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing, considering import variables such as India's purchase from Iran and unplanned maintenance [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, and downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is flat compared to the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is significant, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [3]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The European and American markets are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. The northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability. The recent near - end export orders have slightly declined. The coal sentiment is positive, the semi - coke cost is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: The daily changes of动力煤期货,江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面,CFR中国,CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差,盘面MTO利润 are 0, - 8, - 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 5, 0 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 850 on September 12 - 17. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL美金, and LL美湾 had certain fluctuations. The import profit was - 76 on September 15 - 17. The主力期货 price and基差 also changed. The two - oil inventory was 66 throughout, and the仓单 increased from 11993 on September 11 to 12736 on September 15 - 17. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. Polypropylene - Price and Inventory Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯,华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚,PP美金,PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存,仓单 had different changes. The daily changes on September 17 compared to the previous day were 0, 0, 10, - 8, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0 [3]. PVC - Price and Profit Data: From September 11 to September 17, 2025, the prices of西北电石,山东烧碱,电石法 - 华东,乙烯法 - 华东,电石法 - 华南,电石法 - 西北,进口美金价 (CFR中国),出口利润,西北综合利润,华北综合利润,基差 (高端交割品) had certain changes. The daily change of西北电石 on September 17 compared to the previous day was 50, and other items had no change [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol market is trading on the logic of port pressure传导 to the inland. Inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment, but port backflow will impact inland valuation. Current valuation, inventory, and drivers are not favorable for bottom - fishing, and import variables need attention [2] - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis varies by region, import profit is around - 200 with no further increment. 9 - month maintenance is flat, domestic linear production decreases. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6] - In the polypropylene market, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. Valuation shows a basis of - 60, non - standard price spread is neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and 01 contract may face supply pressure, which can be alleviated by export volume or PDH device maintenance [8] - For PVC, the basis is stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and mid - upstream inventories are accumulating. Q4 should focus on production commissioning and export continuity. Static inventory contradiction accumulates slowly, and attention should be paid to export, coal price, etc. [8] 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 shows changes in动力煤期货, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润. There are slight daily changes in some prices, and the盘面MTO利润 increases by 15 [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) - From 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12, data on东北亚乙烯, various polyethylene prices in different regions, import profit,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 are presented. There are daily changes in some prices and inventory data, such as a 30 - unit decrease in华北LL price and a 40 - unit decrease in主力期货 price [6] PP (Polypropylene) - Price and inventory data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 include山东丙烯,东北亚丙烯, various PP prices in different regions, export profit,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单. Some prices change daily, like a 35 - unit decrease in华东PP price and a 26 - unit decrease in主力期货 price [8] PVC - Data from 2025/09/08 - 2025/09/12 covers西北电石,山东烧碱, different PVC prices in regions, import美金价,出口利润,综合利润, and基差. There are minor daily changes, such as a 2 - unit decrease in山东烧碱 price [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish consolidation [3] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and oil prices are trending downward. Short positions should be held [1]. - LPG: Cost - end drags, and there is pressure on the upside. Light - position short attempts are recommended [1]. - L: Short - position trend continues. Wait for a pullback to try long positions [1]. - PP: Short - position trend continues. Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks [1]. - PVC: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. Be cautious about short - chasing [1]. - PX: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose. Hold short positions and sell call options [1]. - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose in Q4. Hold short positions and expand processing margins on pullbacks [2]. - MEG: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance, but cost support is weakening. Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: Fundamentals are weak, but look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels [2]. - Urea: Domestic fundamentals are loose. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract [2]. - Asphalt: High valuation and weak cost - end. Hold short positions [3]. - Glass: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend. Observe the market [3]. - Soda ash: Short - term fundamentals are less negative. Short - term bullish, medium - to long - term bearish [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.86%, Brent down 1.66%, and SC up 0.68% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks are controllable; OPEC+ plans to increase production in October; US oil consumption peak season ends, and demand support weakens. There is a high probability that prices will be pushed down to around $60 in the medium - to long - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: IEA expects 2025 supply to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day; OPEC+ production in August was 42.4 million barrels per day. OPEC predicts 2025 global oil demand growth of 1.29 million barrels per day. As of September 5, US commercial crude and refined product inventories increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the $60 break - even point for new shale oil wells. SC focus range is [470 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 11, the PG main contract closed at 4453 yuan/ton, up 0.36% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream crude oil has supply - demand imbalance, and LPG is pressured on the upside. Supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight increase in inventory [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focus range is [4400 - 4500] [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 29.0% [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the short - position trend continues. Production is expected to recover next week, and the demand side is strengthening [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. L focus range is [7150 - 7250] [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6939 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is insufficient. Production is expected to decline this week, and downstream demand is entering the peak season [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support at integer levels and try long positions on pullbacks. PP focus range is [6900 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4847 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.0% [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation. Production is expected to decline next week [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about short - chasing. V focus range is [4800 - 4900] [27]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PX spot price was 6781 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, and demand is weak but expected to improve. Supply - demand is expected to shift from tight - balance to loose [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options. PX511 focus range is [6680 - 6785] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 5, the PTA spot price in East China was 4585 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while demand is showing signs of recovery. TA processing margins are low [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and expand PTA processing margins on pullbacks. TA01 focus range is [4670 - 4720] [35]. MEG - **Market Review**: On September 5, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4488 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices are slightly increasing production, and overseas devices have little change. Demand is improving, and inventory is low. Cost support is weakening [38]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for high - level short - selling opportunities. EG01 focus range is [4255 - 4300] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 5, the methanol spot price in East China was 2310 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is weakening [41]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low levels. MA01 focus range is [2370 - 2400] [42].