中辉能化观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 中东地缘扰动，油价短线反弹。地缘：南美地缘生变，委内出现权力真空， 中东地缘升温，短期对油价起到支撑；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡 | | 原油 | 季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页 | | | | 岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 油价受地缘扰动，短线反弹，中长期承压。中长期锚定成本端原油，油价 | | LPG | 空头反弹 | 向下，液化气走弱；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率 | | ★ | 升至 | 75%，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口库存环比下降。 | | | | 基差走强，装置检修增加，上中游转为累库，关注市场情绪变动。停车比 | | L | 例上升至至 空头反弹 | 13%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为 ...

每经记者｜胥帅 每经编辑｜陈柯名 陈旭 值得关注的是，公司凭借锡、钨等矿产资源优势及氯碱化工完整产业链获机构青睐，自2025年12月以来龙虎榜机构博弈频繁，叠加PVC（聚氯乙烯）期货 主力合约走强，共同推动股价持续上行。 减持方之一：依然看好公司发展 根据新金路披露的减持公告，公司近日收到董事、总裁彭朗，董事、联席总裁吴洋，董事、常务副总裁刘祥彬，董事、副总裁成景豪，副总裁张振亚出具 的《关于减持股份计划的告知函》，彭朗拟减持9.5万股；吴洋拟减持4.1万股；刘祥彬拟减持7.2万股；成景豪拟减持4.3万股，张振亚拟减持4.3万股。上 述董事和高管自本减持计划公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内进行减持。 减持计划公布的拟减持数量和比例 1月6日，新金路（SZ000510）股价强势涨停。自2025年10月以来，该股累计涨幅已实现翻倍。 6日晚间，新金路发布公告，披露董事、总裁彭朗等5名核心管理人员拟合计减持29.4万股，对应减持市值近400万元。 据悉，上述公告的拟减持股份均来自2022年5月至2024年6月底部区间的增持部分，目前已显著浮盈。 其中一名高管向记者表示，此次减持系个人资金需求，仍长期看好公司发 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/25 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/12/1 8 801 2168 2120 2440 2485 2385 2525 251 318 0 20 - 2025/12/1 9 801 2157 2115 2435 2485 2385 2508 249 320 1 20 - 2025/12/2 2 801 2142 2115 2430 2485 2385 2500 248 320 11 20 - 2025/12/2 3 801 2137 2115 2420 2485 2355 2505 248 320 20 20 - 2025/12/2 4 801 2172 2135 2395 2485 2355 2470 - - - 15 - 日度变化 0 35 20 -25 0 0 -35 - - - -5 - 观点 伊朗装置开始停车，港口内地共振反弹，基差小幅走强，卸货慢，港口连续两周去库，浮仓很多，预计后期回归 累库，11月伊朗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebounds [3] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Urea: Cautiously avoid shorting [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Report's Core Views - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is easing, and the oil market is in an oversupply pattern, leading to a bearish outlook on oil prices. Cost - related factors are dragging down the prices of LPG, L, PP, etc. Some products have short - term supply - demand imbalances and inventory issues [1][9]. - For some chemical products like PTA, EG, and methanol, supply - demand changes, cost support, and inventory trends are the main factors affecting their prices. Urea has a complex supply - demand situation with both domestic and international factors at play [3]. - Natural gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakened demand support. Asphalt prices are affected by cost and seasonal demand factors. Glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances with high inventories [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with WTI down 2.94%, Brent down 2.71%, and SC down 1.14% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical support for oil prices is decreasing as the Russia - Ukraine situation eases. In the off - season, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and global and US inventories are increasing [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Russia's oil production in November increased slightly. The IEA predicts an increase in global crude oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil and product inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 5 [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and oil prices are in a low - price range. Technically, the trend is weak. It is recommended to partially close short positions, with SC focusing on the range of 415 - 430 [11]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the PG main contract closed at 4210 yuan/ton, up 1.40% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed slight changes [12][13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, which is in a downward trend. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Inventory has increased [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and LPG prices still have room to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions, with PG focusing on the range of 4150 - 4250 [15]. 3.3 L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices, weakening basis, and high production rates limit the rebound space. Supply is sufficient, the peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventory is increasing slightly [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread, with L focusing on the range of 6450 - 6600 [19]. 3.4 PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed significantly [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak demand support, weakening basis, and high inventory limit the rebound space. In December, demand enters the off - season, and the industry chain still faces high inventory - reduction pressure [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Consider going long on PP processing fees or short on MTO05, with PP focusing on the range of 6200 - 6300 [23]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 closing price increased, and the main contract's basis and some spreading prices changed [25]. - **Basic Logic**: North American plant shutdowns led to a rebound in the market, but the basis weakened. Supply - demand surplus persists until there are concentrated mid - and upstream maintenance. Some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide plants are losing cash flow [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Treat it as a short - term rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction before going long, with V focusing on the range of 4300 - 4450 [27]. 3.6 PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and basis and spreading prices also had some fluctuations [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and many domestic and overseas plants are under maintenance. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. Cost support is weakening, and there is an expected inventory build - up in January [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low valuation and processing fees, consider going long on the 05 contract on dips, with TA05 focusing on the range of 4610 - 4670 [30]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of EG changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas plant loads have decreased. Downstream demand is currently good but expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in December, and it lacks upward drivers [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with EG05 focusing on the range of 3730 - 3800 [33]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Performance**: No specific market performance data is emphasized, but it is mentioned that the Taicang spot price is weakening [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The port inventory is decreasing, but the supply - side pressure still exists. Domestic plants are increasing production, while overseas plants are reducing production. Demand is slightly weakening, and cost support is weakening [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The methanol 05 contract is expected to be weak, with the downward space being limited [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of urea changed, and basis and spreading prices also had fluctuations [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strengthening. Supply pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. Demand is currently good but not sustainable. Inventory is decreasing but still at a high level [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously avoid shorting. Consider going long on the 05 contract, with UR01 focusing on the range of 1615 - 1640 [42]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 15, the NG main contract closed at 4.012 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 2.46% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed [43][44]. - **Basic Logic**: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US has weakened demand support. Gas prices have reached a high level in recent years, and supply is relatively sufficient [45]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 3.860 - 4.239 US dollars per million British thermal units. The demand has some support, but gas prices are under pressure [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 16, the BU main contract closed at 2891 yuan/ton, down 2.07% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly [46][47]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side factors are negative, and it is the consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is relatively high [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions due to the increasing uncertainty in South American geopolitics. Pay attention to the range of 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton [49]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price decreased slightly, and basis and spreading prices changed [51]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply reduction is insufficient under weak demand. Production capacity remains stable, and demand is weak. Inventory is high although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with FG focusing on the range of 1110 - 1150 [53]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price increased, and basis and spreading prices changed [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The market rebounded with reduced positions. Supply is expected to be loose with a planned new plant coming into operation. Demand support is insufficient [57]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for a rebound to go short, with SA focusing on the range of 1150 - 1200 [57].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and high imports are likely in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, making inventory reduction difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it does not affect methanol profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains unchanged. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotations, as well as the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [4]. - **PP**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The production of drawing materials is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2010 to 2053, the South China spot price increased from 2005 to 2028, and the Northwest discounted price increased from 2568 to 2588. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in most prices, with the largest increase in the import profit, which rose by 64 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The North China LL price increased from 6770 to 6760, and the East China LL price remained at 7000 on some days and then decreased slightly. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the warehouse receipt decreased from 12017 to 11721. The daily change on November 24 showed an increase in the主力期货 price by 23 and a decrease in the warehouse receipt by 114 [4]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Shandong propylene price remained at 5900 on some days. The East China PP price decreased from 6340 to 6285, and the North China PP price decreased from 6315 to 6255. The two - oil inventory decreased from 71 to a lower level, and the export profit showed some fluctuations. The daily change on November 24 showed a decrease in most prices and a 15 - point increase in the主力期货 price [4]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 18 - 24, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2450 to 2450 (with a 50 - point increase on November 24), and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 792 to 777. The East China price of calcium carbide - based PVC increased from 4520 to 4530. The basis of the high - end delivery product increased from - 90 to - 70 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is becoming a "safe haven" for capital, with significant growth in sub-industries such as synthetic resins and adhesives, indicating a transition from "overcapacity" to "tight supply-demand balance" in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:40, the Petrochemical ETF (159731) decreased by 0.12%, while stocks like Sanmei Co., China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum saw notable gains [1] - The latest scale of the Petrochemical ETF is 167 million yuan, with a record share of 198 million, both reaching new highs [1] Group 2: Sub-industry Growth - Synthetic resins and adhesives have experienced rapid growth, with prices doubling since April, driven by companies like Aowei New Materials, which has seen its stock price surge over 15 times this year [1] - Other chemical sub-industries, including nylon and polyurethane, have also shown upward trends [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, products with high correlation to demand in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit first from macroeconomic improvements, while those linked to emerging markets will recover later [1] - MDI and PVC (polyvinyl chloride) are anticipated to be the most certain products for future growth [1] Group 4: Industry Composition - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% of the index [1] - Ongoing government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the chemical industry are a core support for the sector's strength [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) has officially approved the launch of monthly average futures contracts for LLDPE, PVC, and PP, set to take effect on July 25, 2025, marking a significant upgrade in pricing mechanisms for these essential materials [16][32]. Group 1: Introduction of Monthly Average Futures - The new monthly average futures contracts will not involve physical delivery but will settle based on the arithmetic average of the settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures over the month [16][32]. - This innovation aims to provide enterprises with a more stable pricing reference, aligning with the continuous production and batch purchasing needs of businesses [17][19]. Group 2: Operational Details - The trading codes for the new contracts will be structured as follows: L for LLDPE, V for PVC, and PP for PP, followed by the contract month and an "F" to denote the monthly average [21][23]. - For example, the contract L2509F represents the LLDPE monthly average futures for September 2025 [23]. Group 3: Market Demand and Benefits - There is a growing market demand for a transparent and authoritative monthly average pricing reference system, which the DCE's new futures contracts aim to fulfill [32]. - The introduction of these contracts is expected to stabilize costs for companies, allowing them to lock in monthly prices and reduce the anxiety associated with daily price fluctuations [19][32]. Group 4: Risk Management and Settlement Mechanism - The DCE has designed a detailed settlement and risk management mechanism to ensure the smooth operation of the monthly average futures [34][40]. - The settlement price will be calculated based on the average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical delivery futures, with more recent prices given higher weight [38][40]. Group 5: Broader Implications - The launch of monthly average futures is not just a tool upgrade but represents a deeper evolution in futures services for the real economy, enhancing the stability of the entire industrial chain [42][45]. - This development signifies a step towards a more mature pricing system in the Chinese market, reflecting the growing importance of these materials in everyday life and their role in market pricing dynamics [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the commodities in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with some rated as "Bearish" or "Bearish Consolidation" [1][3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical market is bearish, mainly due to factors such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and weakening demand [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply surplus and geopolitical easing lead to weak oil prices. OPEC+ plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventories are continuously accumulating [1] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [12] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical speculation causes a rebound, but the cost - end oil price drags down, and the upside is pressured. There are concerns about increased transportation costs, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy**: Use a double - option strategy. Focus on the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [17] L (PE) - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have not stopped falling, and the basis weakens significantly. New production capacity is put into operation, and supply remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking power is insufficient [21] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 7000] [21] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the basis weakens. Post - holiday inventory reduction is slow, and supply - demand remains loose. There is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [26] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [26] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to a slight reduction in social inventory, but supply is strong and demand is weak. New production capacity will be released, and there is uncertainty in export anti - dumping duties [30] - **Strategy**: Treat the short - term rebound with caution and take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of V [4600 - 4800] [30] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price is under pressure. The PXN spread is relatively high this year, and the short - process PX - MX spread is also high [33] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of PX [6310 - 6400] [34] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side start - up load increases, and demand has a "Silver October" consumption peak expectation. The cost - end oil price drops, and the processing fee is low [37] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of TA [4400 - 4460] [38] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices increase production, overseas devices change little. Terminal consumption improves in the short term but is under pressure in the long term. New device production and inventory accumulation [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [4020 - 4090] [42] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [1] - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is short - term bearish. Supply pressure is large, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is stabilizing [46] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of MA [2280 - 2320] [48] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [51] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is not high. Pay attention to the Indian urea tender. Consider going long with a light position in the medium - to - long - term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The trading logic is that port pressure is transmitted to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuations. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - Plastic: For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat compared to the previous period, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - PP: Polypropylene inventory in upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and mid - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Drawing production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8]. - PVC: The basis of 01 contract maintains at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream operation starts are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, semi - coke costs are stable, and calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operation starts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu spot, South China spot, and other regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2290 on September 16 to 2257 on September 22, with a daily change of - 3 [2]. - Profit Data: Import profit was mainly 0 or - 9, - 10, 6; the main contract basis was around - 100 to - 1255; the MTO profit on the disk was - 1255 [2]. Plastic - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 850 (except for September 19 - 22 when it was 845). The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had some changes. For example, North China LL decreased from 7130 on September 16 to 7070 on September 22, with a daily change of - 30 [6]. - Inventory and Profit Data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 67 on September 16 to 63 on September 22. Import profit was mainly - 22, - 12, - 66 [6]. PP - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 on September 16 to 6500 on September 22, with a daily change of - 80. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, East China PP decreased from 6840 on September 16 to 6770 on September 22, with a daily change of - 25 [8]. - Inventory and Profit Data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 67 on September 16 to 63 on September 22. Export profit was mainly - 19, - 30, - 26, - 24 [8]. PVC - Price Data: From September 16 to 22, 2025, Northwest calcium carbide price increased from 2500 on September 16 to 2600 on September 19 and remained at 2600 on September 22. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4830 on September 16 to 4810 on September 22, with a daily change of - 20 [8]. - Profit Data: Export profit was 342, 335, 336; Northwest comprehensive profit was 356; North China comprehensive profit was - 244; the basis of high - end delivery products was - 150 [8].