Report Industry Investment Ratings - L - Oscillatory [1] - PP - Oscillatory [1] - PVC - Weak [1] - PTA/PX - Cautiously Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol - Bullish [5] - Methanol - Cautiously Bullish [5] - Urea - Bullish [5] - Caustic Soda - Weak [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the investment prospects of multiple chemical products, taking into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy impacts. Each product's market situation is unique, with some showing potential for upward movement while others are expected to remain stable or weak [1][4][5]. Summaries by Product L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,614 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from the previous day. The basis of L05 was -124 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was 149 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased counter - seasonally [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply contraction intensified, geopolitical conflicts eased, and the market was in high - level consolidation. New plant overhauls in domestic petrochemicals increased the parking ratio, and the supply - demand pattern was gradually tightening, providing support at the bottom of the market [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9,103 yuan/ton, down 1.8% from the previous day. The basis of PP05 was 75 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was 366 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Basic Logic**: PDH cost support was strong, supply contraction continued, and the supply - demand pattern was improving. PDH profit still had room for upward repair. In the short term, it was mainly affected by geopolitical factors [12]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,353 yuan/ton, down 3.6% from the previous day. The basis of V05 was -133 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread was -106 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply had a slow growth trend, and fundamental drivers were weak. There was a divergence in the start - up of ethylene and calcium carbide processes. High inventory and weak basis limited the upward space of the market [16]. PTA/PX - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day. The PXN was 106.2 dollars/ton, down 123 dollars [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts persisted, and the Strait of Hormuz was substantially blocked. TA valuation was high, and supply and demand were slightly loose. The market was expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [18]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 5,279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day. The basis of EG05 was -129 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was 146 yuan/ton [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts showed no obvious signs of easing. Domestic and overseas plants were continuously reducing their loads. Import volume was expected to decrease in March - April, and inventory pressure was expected to ease [20]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a back - structure, with a weakening basis and monthly spread. - **Basic Logic**: Valuation was high, and the fundamental outlook was improving. Supply was increasing domestically and decreasing overseas, and downstream demand was weakly stable. Port inventory was accelerating its decline, with stable cost support [23]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day. The basis of Shandong small - particle urea was 23 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea was large, but exports were restricted before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply was still at a high level, demand was recovering, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range. The cost side provided support [25][26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,340 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The basis of SH05 was -37 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread was -177 yuan/ton [28][29]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong continued to increase, and the basis was approaching parity. Caution was advised when short - selling. The start - up rate was expected to continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and export orders [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PP: ★★, indicating a strong bullish bias, with a view of "stronger" [2] - PVC: ★, indicating a bullish bias, with a view of "oscillation" [2] - PTA/PX: ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): ★, with a "bullish" direction [5] - Methanol: ★, with a "cautiously bullish" view [6] - Urea: ★, with a "bullish" direction [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, with an "oscillation" view [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple chemical products, including L, PP, PVC, PTA/PX, MEG, methanol, urea, and caustic soda. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of each product, and provides investment outlooks and price ranges [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Product L - **Core View**: The social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and the market is in a high - level oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [9][11] - **Main Logic**: Social inventory is accumulating against the seasonal trend, and ethylene is trading at a high level. New device maintenance in Lanzhou Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to 20%. More device maintenance is planned before early April, tightening the supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][11] PP - **Core View**: Supported by cost, the market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 9000 - 9800 yuan/ton [12][15] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and supply continues to shrink. New device maintenance in Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical has increased the parking ratio to a historical high of 28%. The supply - demand pattern is improving, and there is significant room for PDH profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the downstream transmission progress [2][15] PVC - **Core View**: The inventory reduction slope has slowed down, and the market is in a wide - range oscillation. The price range is expected to be between 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton [16][19] - **Main Logic**: The ethylene price is high, and the FOB price in Tianjin has decreased. Inventory reduction is slow. The start - up of ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC plants is diverging. The high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [2][19] PTA - **Core View**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and cost support, it is recommended to buy on dips. The price range is expected to be between 6620 - 7020 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical conflict shows no sign of significant easing. The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has seen some recovery in domestic devices, while the demand side has a slight decline in polyester load. The inventory has decreased slightly from a high level. The cost side is affected by the geopolitical conflict [20][21] MEG - **Core View**: With reduced imports and cost support, the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 5280 - 5580 yuan/ton [22][23] - **Main Logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in backwardation. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous load reduction of domestic and overseas devices. The inventory at ports is at a low level, and the social inventory is decreasing. The demand side has a slight decline in polyester load [22][23] Methanol - **Core View**: Geopolitical conflicts still exist, and the fundamentals are improving. The market is oscillating strongly. The price range is expected to be between 3250 - 3450 yuan/ton [24][26] - **Main Logic**: The valuation of the methanol main contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the term structure is in backwardation. The supply side has domestic load - increase and overseas load - reduction. The demand side has weak - stable downstream demand, and the traditional demand is seasonally warming up. The port inventory is decreasing rapidly [26] Urea - **Core View**: Although the fundamentals are weak, there is an export expectation, and the outlook is bullish. The price range is expected to be between 1880 - 1920 yuan/ton [27][29] - **Main Logic**: The price difference between domestic and overseas urea is over 3000 yuan/ton, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has a slight decline in production but is still at a high level. The demand side is recovering, and the factory inventory is decreasing. The cost side provides support [27][28][29] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: The start - up increase has led to a slight increase in factory inventory, and the market is oscillating. The price range is expected to be between 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton [30][31] - **Main Logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, and the basis has strengthened. High inventory restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week and is expected to continue to increase this week. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance progress and changes in export orders [2][31]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Strong bias [1] - PP: Strong bias [1] - PVC: Oscillation [1] - PTA/PX: Bullish direction [4] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish direction [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [5] - Urea: Bullish direction [5] - Caustic soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and the supply - side contraction in the energy and chemical sectors continues to intensify. The cost of raw materials is strong, and the supply - demand patterns of various products are showing different trends [1][4][5]. - For some products, the high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market, while for others, the improvement in supply - demand fundamentals and cost support drive the price to maintain a strong or bullish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Variety L - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: Geopolitical tensions persist, supply contraction intensifies, and ethylene prices are consolidating at a high level. Newly added domestic device overhauls increase the parking ratio to 20%, and more device overhauls are planned before early April, making the supply - demand pattern gradually tighten [1][10]. - **Market data**: L05 closing price is 8868 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 910,000 lots, down 11.6% [8]. PP - **Core view**: Strong bias [1] - **Main logic**: The cost of propane and methanol is strong, PDH profits are compressed to a historical low, and upstream overhauls continue. The domestic device parking ratio remains at a historical high of 26%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving, with high upward repair space for PDH profits [1][14]. - **Market data**: PP05 closing price is 9313 yuan/ton, up 2.1% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 1.13 million lots, down 17.1% [12]. PVC - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The first - round price increase of semi - coke this year slows down the de - stocking slope of the upstream and mid - stream, and the market fluctuates widely. The shortage of ethylene raw materials intensifies the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene - based PVC, and some domestic ethylene - based devices start to reduce loads. The caustic - soda method starts to increase to the highest level in the same period, and high inventory and weak basis limit the upward space of the market [1][18]. - **Market data**: V05 closing price is 5615 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 2.39 million lots, down 9.9% [16]. PTA - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical conflict has not eased, the valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. The supply - side domestic devices have recovered, and the PTA load is 79.9%. The downstream polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average. The PTA inventory has slightly decreased from a high level, and the cost side is affected by the geopolitical situation, with the PX device slightly reducing the load [4][20]. - **Market data**: TA05 closing price is 6778 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan from the previous day; the PTA social inventory is 14.01 days, down 0.65 days [19]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core view**: Bullish direction [4] - **Main logic**: The valuation is high, and the term structure is in a back state. Geopolitical conflicts have not eased, and domestic and foreign devices continue to reduce loads. The import volume is expected to shrink in March - April, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period, with the social inventory continuing to decline. The polyester load has slightly decreased, and the weaving start - up load has continued to rise, but the sales are average [4][22]. - **Market data**: EG05 closing price is 5279 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan from the previous day; the MEG social inventory in China is 2.038 million tons, down 39,800 tons [21]. Methanol - **Core view**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Main logic**: The geopolitical uncertainty still exists, the valuation is high, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The supply - side domestic devices increase the load while foreign devices reduce the load. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the traditional downstream starts to pick up seasonally. The port inventory is accelerating de - stocking [5][25]. - **Market data**: The methanol主力 is at a high level in the past year, and the term structure is in a back state [25]. Urea - **Core view**: Bullish direction [5] - **Main logic**: The price difference between domestic and foreign urea is more than 3000 yuan/ton, but urea exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply - side start - up has declined but is still at a high level in the same period, and the daily production is 214,700 tons. The demand side has recovered, the compound fertilizer start - up has continued to increase, and the industrial demand is improving steadily. The plant inventory is continuously de - stocking. The cost side has support, and attention should be paid to the urea export policy in the middle and late stages of domestic spring plowing [5][27][28]. - **Market data**: UR05 closing price is 1877 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous day; the urea plant inventory in China is 700,500 tons, down 108,400 tons [26]. Caustic Soda - **Core view**: Oscillation [1] - **Main logic**: The spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has increased, the basis has strengthened, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. The start - up rate increased to 84.6% last week, and there are still plans to increase the load this week, with the start - up expected to continue to increase. The ECU profit in Shandong has recovered, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring overhauls and changes in export order volumes [1][30]. - **Market data**: SH05 closing price is 2442 yuan/ton, down 2.7% from the previous day; the weighted trading volume is 360,000 lots, up 0.3% [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Callback [1] - PP: Callback [1] - PVC: Callback [1] - PX/PTA: Callback [2] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Callback [2] - Methanol: Callback [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Oscillation [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the geopolitical premium in the market is gradually being digested. The supply of some products is shrinking, and the cost support is strong. The demand side of some products is gradually recovering, but the growth rate is weak. Overall, the market is in a state of shock and adjustment [1][2][3] Summary by Variety L - **Core View**: Callback. The negotiation between the US and Iran is in the initial stage, and the supply contraction intensifies. The ethylene market is strongly volatile. With the increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, attention should be paid to the sustainability of supply reduction. Geopolitical conflicts may gradually ease, and long positions should be stopped for profit [1][7] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of L01, L05, and L09 have all declined, with the L05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 15.6%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.0%. The trading volume has increased by 28.0%. The L05 basis is -128 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread is 182 yuan/ton [5][6] PP - **Core View**: Callback. The PDH profit has reached a new low, and the supply contraction continues. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side still strongly supports PP. The domestic supply and demand pattern is improving, but recent capital has been continuously reducing positions, and long positions should be stopped for profit at high prices [1][10] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 have all declined, with the PP05 closing price dropping by 6.9%. The main contract position has decreased by 14.9%, and the weighted position has decreased by 10.1%. The trading volume has increased by 34.8%. The PP05 basis is -469 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread is 499 yuan/ton [8][9] PVC - **Core View**: Callback. In the short term, it mainly follows the oil price fluctuations. The basis has strengthened passively, and the cost support has improved due to the significant increase in calcium carbide prices. The shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expectation of load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC devices, and some domestic ethylene-based devices have started to reduce their loads [1][14] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of V01, V05, and V09 have all declined, with the V05 closing price dropping by 6.4%. The main contract position has decreased by 6.3%, and the weighted position has decreased by 3.1%. The trading volume has decreased by 1.6%. The V05 basis is -33 yuan/ton, and the V59 spread is -87 yuan/ton [12][13] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game has reached a critical node, and some long funds have left the market to wait and see. The TA valuation is relatively high, and the basis has strengthened. The supply side has seen domestic device load reduction, and the downstream polyester start-up load has increased, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened month-on-month. The PX fundamentals have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [2][16] - **Market Data**: The TA05, TA09, and TA01 closing prices have all increased. The PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton, and the PTA factory processing fee is 332.8 yuan/ton. The PTA social inventory has decreased slightly [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical conflict has not significantly eased, and both domestic and overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand is relatively good but weaker than the same period last year [2][20] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start-up load is 66.45%, and the port inventory is at a low level in the same period. The polyester comprehensive load has continued to increase, but the production and sales are average, and the weaving orders have declined month-on-month [20] Methanol - **Core View**: Callback. The geopolitical game dominates the market trend, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import volume is expected to decrease in March and April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating to be depleted [2][24] - **Market Data**: The methanol main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and spread have weakened. The spot prices in the European and American methanol markets are relatively strong [24] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish. The domestic and foreign price spreads of urea are large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply side has seen a decline in urea start-up but remains at a high level in the same period. The demand side has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The overall fundamentals are relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3][27] - **Market Data**: The UR05, UR09, and UR01 closing prices have all declined. The urea comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis is 29 yuan/ton [26] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Oscillation. The export orders have improved, and the price of high-concentration caustic soda has increased significantly. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has intensified the expectation of load reduction of ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. The profit of Shandong ECU has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume [1][32] - **Market Data**: The closing prices of SH01, SH03, SH05, and SH09 have all declined. The SH05 basis is -288 yuan/ton, and the SH59 spread is -48 yuan/ton [31][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [2] - PP: Bullish [2] - PVC: Bullish [2] - PX/PTA: Bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the situation in the Middle East, are the main factors driving the prices of energy and chemical products. Supply - side factors like device maintenance and reduced production due to geopolitical events, as well as changes in demand, affect the market trends of various products [2][3]. - Most products are expected to show a bullish or cautiously bullish trend in the short - term, but there are also risks and uncertainties, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical changes, cost fluctuations, and policy adjustments [2][3][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 9523 yuan/ton, up 8.0% from the previous day; the main position increased by 11.0%. The spot price of LL in North China rose 10.5% [6]. - **Core Logic**: Following the short - term cost adjustment, the cost of ethylene remains strong. The shutdown ratio has increased to 15%, and more devices are planned to be shut down before early April. It is expected to continue the bullish shock before the raw material shortage is resolved [2][8]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9793 yuan/ton, up 8.6% from the previous day; the main position increased by 10.5%. The PDH cost increased by 8.8%, and the profit continued to be compressed [9]. - **Core Logic**: PDH profit continues to be compressed, and the supply has room to shrink. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side strongly supports PP. The shutdown ratio has reached a high of 23%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving [2][11]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6251 yuan/ton, up 6.4% from the previous day; the main position increased by 0.6%. The inventory of PVC decreased, and the social inventory showed a turning point [13]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar price of ethylene continues to rise, and the ethylene - based PVC production reduction drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of global ethylene - based PVC production reduction, and some domestic ethylene - based devices have started to reduce production. It is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [2][15]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5870 yuan/ton. The PTA processing fee is around 280 +, and the PXN is compressed to around 65 + [16]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the recent market. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil prices high. The domestic PTA device has reduced production, while the downstream polyester starts to increase the load, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened. The fundamentals of PX have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [3][17]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: The overall valuation is high, and the basis is weakening. The port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the warehouse receipts and social inventory continue to decline [21]. - **Core Logic**: The cost has increased, and domestic and foreign devices have reduced production. The demand is improving but the strength is weak. The expectation of import reduction is expected to be fulfilled, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved in March - April [3][21]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening. The warehouse receipts have decreased significantly [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [3][25]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1841 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign price differences are large, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [27]. - **Core Logic**: Although the domestic and foreign price differences of urea are large, exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period, the demand has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The price is restricted by policies [3][28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2634 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from the previous day. The export orders have improved, and the price of high - concentration caustic soda has increased significantly [32]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of production reduction of ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. Pay attention to the spring maintenance progress and export order volume changes [2][33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: ★★, Bullish [1] - PP: ★★, Bullish [1] - PVC: ★★, Bullish [1] - PX/PTA: ★, Bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★, Bullish [5] - Methanol: ★★, Bullish [6] - Urea: ★, Cautiously Bullish [6] - Caustic Soda: ★, Sideways [1] Core Views - Supply contraction and cost support drive the prices of L, PP, PVC, and ethylene glycol to remain bullish. The prices of PX/PTA and methanol are expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved fundamentals. Urea prices are cautiously bullish due to the large domestic and foreign price difference and the supply - demand situation. Caustic soda prices are expected to move sideways [1][4][5][6]. Summaries by Variety L - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply contraction intensifies, and the cost - end ethylene remains strong. New domestic plant overhauls increase the parking ratio to 15%, and the planned overhaul volume in March increases. Geopolitical conflicts raise the price center, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][11] - **Market Data**: L05 closing price is 8818 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 728 yuan/ton, down 26.4% [9] PP - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: PDH profit continues to compress, and supply has room for contraction. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost - end strongly supports PP. The current parking ratio is at a high of 21%, the supply - demand pattern is improving, and the market is expected to remain bullish before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14] - **Market Data**: PP05 closing price is 9019 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 259 yuan/ton, up 14.5% [12] PVC - **Core View**: Bullish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, and the reduction of ethylene - based production drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts exacerbate the expectation of load reduction in global ethylene - based PVC plants. Some domestic ethylene - based plants have started to reduce loads. The market is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18] - **Market Data**: V05 closing price is 5875 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 205 yuan/ton, down 28.1% [16] PX/PTA - **Core View**: Bullish [4] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continue, and the valuation is relatively high. The supply side sees domestic plant load reduction, and the downstream polyester start - up load increases weakly. The fundamentals of upstream PX continue to improve, and the market is expected to remain bullish in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [4][20] - **Market Data**: TA05 closing price is 6070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day; PTA spot processing fee is 317.8 yuan/ton [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Bullish [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost increases and domestic and foreign plant load reduction. The import reduction expectation is expected to be fulfilled, and the port pressure is expected to ease. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in March - April [5][24] - **Market Data**: The overall ethylene glycol start - up load is 66.45% (down 0.32pct from the previous period) [24] Methanol - **Core View**: Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas plant load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand side is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [6][28] - **Market Data**: The main methanol contract is at a nearly one - year high, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening [28] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously Bullish [6] - **Main Logic**: The domestic and foreign price difference of urea is large, but exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. Supply has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Demand has recovered, and the factory inventory is continuously decreasing. The price is restricted by policies [6][31] - **Market Data**: Urea production is 21.04 tons per day, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - **Core View**: Sideways [1] - **Main Logic**: The overhaul intensity increases, and the factory inventory declines from a high level. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of load reduction in ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated plants at home and abroad. Pay attention to the spring overhaul progress and export order volume changes [1][36] - **Market Data**: SH05 closing price is 2544 yuan/ton, up 3.2% from the previous day; the main contract basis is - 391 yuan/ton, down 22.9% [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - L: Bullish [1][10] - PP: Bullish [1][14] - PVC: Bullish [1][18] - PTA: Bullish [4][21] - MEG: Bullish [4][24] - Methanol: Bullish [5][29] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [5][33] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [1][36] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have led to supply shortages and cost increases in the energy and chemical sectors, driving up prices. - The fundamentals of various products are improving, with supply-side reductions and demand-side recoveries expected in the coming months. - The market is closely watching geopolitical developments, cost trends, and policy changes, which will have a significant impact on prices. Summaries by Related Catalogs L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 8,916 yuan/ton, up 5.8% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased by 29.2% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Spot prices lagged behind, and the basis weakened significantly. The cost of ethylene remained strong. Some cracking units at home and abroad reduced their loads due to a shortage of raw materials, and the domestic parking ratio was 12.3%. The planned maintenance volume in March increased. Geopolitical conflicts raised the price center. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][10]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 8,628 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased slightly by 0.2% [12]. - **Core Logic**: Propane prices continued to soar, compressing PDH profits. The supply was strongly supported. The attack on the South Pars gas field increased the expected supply reduction. The current parking ratio was at a high of 22%. The supply-demand pattern was favorable. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is alleviated [1][14]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5,860 yuan/ton, up 2.2% from the previous day. The weighted volume increased by 15.2% [16]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar quotation increased by 25% month-on-month, and the external market was strongly supported. Geopolitical conflicts have not been resolved, and the shortage of raw material ethylene has intensified the expected load reduction of global ethylene-based PVC units. Some domestic ethylene-based units have started to reduce their loads. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly before the raw material shortage is resolved [1][18]. PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 6,070 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan from the previous day. The PTA spot processing fee was 317.8 yuan/ton [19]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts continued, and there were no obvious signs of easing. The TA05 closing price was at a high in the past year, with a backwardation structure. The supply side saw domestic units reducing their loads, while the downstream demand seasonally recovered. The inventory increased, and the cost side was favorable. The PX fundamentals continued to improve. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term, and the supply-demand situation is expected to improve from March to April [4][20]. MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 4,729 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan from the previous day. The weighted production cost was 5,794.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit was -1,511.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Core Logic**: The valuation of ethylene glycol has been repaired, with a backwardation structure. Both domestic and overseas units significantly reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease in March. The downstream demand seasonally recovered, and the inventory pressure is expected to ease from March to April. The cost side was affected by geopolitical conflicts, with oil prices fluctuating strongly and coal prices stabilizing [4][23]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The methanol market showed a strong trend, with the main contract at a high level in the past year [27]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominated the market trend, and the fundamentals were expected to improve. The valuation was generally high, with a backwardation structure. The domestic methanol load slightly declined but remained at a high level, while overseas units reduced their loads. The import volume is expected to decrease from February to March. The demand side was weakly stable, and the port inventory was rapidly depleted [5][27]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1,847 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit was 145.01 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small particle basis was 13 yuan/ton [30]. - **Core Logic**: The absolute valuation of urea was not low, and the overall start-up load continued to increase. The demand side had a weak reality but strong expectations, with winter storage demand weakening and industrial demand being weak. The export of urea and fertilizers was relatively good. The social inventory continued to accumulate. Under the background of "export quotas" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices," there was a ceiling and a floor for urea prices. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5][31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2,465 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day [35]. - **Core Logic**: The factory inventory declined from a high level, and the basis strengthened. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified the expected load reduction of overseas and domestic ethylene-based chlor-alkali integrated units. The Tianjin chlor-alkali unit rapidly reduced its load, but the domestic overall maintained a high load. Attention should be paid to the progress of spring maintenance and changes in export order volume. The market is waiting for further fundamental guidance [1][36].

Group 1: Methanol - Methanol prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change from March 13 to March 19, with Jiangsu spot rising by 205, South China spot by 250, and Northwest discounted to the market by 80. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main contract basis was 25, while the MTO profit on the disk remained at -1106. The daily change in power coal futures was 0 [2] Group 2: Plastics - From March 13 to March 19, Northeast Asia ethylene prices increased from 1150 to 1280, and prices of various plastics in different regions also changed. For example, North China LL increased by 370, and East China LL by 250. The import profit of LL remained unchanged at -895 on March 19, and the main contract basis was -50. The two - oil inventory remained at 82, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 770 [10] Group 3: Propylene and PP - From March 13 to March 19, Shandong propylene prices increased by 480, Northeast Asia propylene by 30, and prices of various PP products in different regions also rose. The export profit remained at 22, the main contract basis was 150, the two - oil inventory remained at 82, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1900 [17] Group 4: PVC - From March 13 to March 19, Northwest calcium carbide prices increased by 50, and the price of ethylene - based PVC in East China increased by 70. Other indicators such as import US dollar price, export profit, and comprehensive profits in the Northwest and North China remained unchanged, and the basis (high - end delivery product) was -30 [18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Market Analysis - **First Stage (Late February - March 2):** On February 28, 2026, the US attacked Iran, and Israel and Iran clashed. On March 1, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, and the Strait of Hormuz became congested. The涨幅 order was Brent > Methanol > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG) > PVC. Chemicals' price increase was mainly due to cost - push from crude oil, and the supply - side logic was based on the proportion of production capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. Methanol had the largest proportion, followed by olefins, and aromatics also benefited from cost - push [4]. - **Second Stage (March 3 - Mid - March):** The涨幅 order was (BZ, EB) > Brent > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP) > (Methanol, EG, PVC). The logic shifted from cost - push to supply - reduction due to refinery and cracker cut - backs. Asian cracker cut - backs had a greater impact on pure benzene and styrene. EG and PVC followed the price increase slowly due to high inventory [5]. - **Third Stage (Mid - March):** The涨幅 order was PVC > (Brent, PX, PTA) > EG > Methanol > PP > LL > BZ > EB. Domestic and overseas refineries and crackers cut back production further. PVC, a low - valued product, had the fastest price increase, and EG also had a good price increase [6]. - **Fourth Stage (Since March 18):** The Middle - East situation worsened. The涨幅 order was Methanol > EG > PP, PE. Aromatics with low Middle - East production capacity performed worse than olefins [7]. Strategy - Maintain a cautious strategy of buying on dips for hedging for MA, PX, TA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG and other varieties [8] 3. Summary by Directory Background and Purpose - The report analyzes the impact of the Iran conflict on the chemical industry in four stages, summarizes the reduction of chemical production capacity at home and abroad, and predicts the trend of chemical products under different scenarios of the Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz [13][14] First Stage: Iran War Breaks Out, Potential Supply Decline in Middle - East Chemicals and Crude Oil Cost - Push Logic - From late February to March 2, the price increase of chemicals was mainly due to cost - push from crude oil and the potential impact on overseas production capacity if the supply in the Strait of Hormuz was affected. Methanol was the most affected, followed by PE, EG, and PP. Aromatics were mainly affected by cost - push from crude oil. The涨幅 order was Brent > Methanol > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP, EG) > PVC [15][19] Second Stage: Crude Oil Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is Blocked, Supply Decline in Domestic and Overseas Refineries and Crackers - From March 3 to mid - March, the logic shifted to supply - reduction. Domestic refineries like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Asian refineries in South Korea cut production. Aromatics were the strongest, followed by olefins. EG and PVC followed the price increase slowly. The涨幅 order was (BZ, EB) > Brent > (PX, PTA, BZ, EB, LL, PP) > (Methanol, EG, PVC) [20][30] Third Stage: Crude Oil Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked, Further Supply Decline in Domestic and Overseas Refineries and Crackers - In mid - March, domestic and overseas refineries and crackers cut production further. PX was the most affected, followed by other aromatics and olefins. PVC had the fastest price increase. The涨幅 order was PVC > (Brent, PX, PTA) > EG > Methanol > PP > LL > BZ > EB [31][38] Fourth Stage: Supply - Side Impact Focuses on the Middle - East, Not Just Asian Refinery Cracker Cut - Backs - Since March 18, the Middle - East situation worsened. The focus shifted to the potential supply decline in the Middle - East. Methanol, EG, PP, and PE had higher price increases, while aromatics performed worse [39][44] Analysis of Chemical Product Strategies under Different Iran War Scenarios - **Based on Current Supply - Demand Analysis:** MA > (PX, PTA > BZ, EB) > (PP > LL > EG) > PVC [45][46] - **Saudi Arabia Not Further Involved, Strait of Hormuz Blocked, Refinery Cut - Backs Continue:** Chemical products will continue to rise, and profits may expand. The impact on specific products depends on the degree of refinery cut - backs [46] - **Middle - East War Escalates:** - If Iran attacks Saudi Jubail, EG > (PP, PE) > EB [46] - If Iran attacks Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, the direct impact on chemicals is small, but propane for PP is more affected [46] - If Iran's South Pars Gas Field is continuously attacked, methanol ranks first [47] - **Strait of Hormuz Reopens:** Chemical prices will decline. PP may be more resilient, and aromatics from South Korea and Japan may also be relatively strong [48]

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: March 19, 2026 Methanol - On March 18, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Jiangsu spot increased by 95 to 2940, the price of South China spot increased by 90 to 2935, the price of Lunan folded to the futures price increased by 15 to 2800, the price of Hebei folded to the futures price decreased by 10 to 2700, and the price of Northwest folded to the futures price increased by 43 to 2843. Other indicators such as power coal futures remained unchanged [2] Plastic - On March 18, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of East China LD decreased by 50 to 10500, the price of East China HD decreased by 350 to 8500, and the price of the main futures contract decreased by 65 to 8431. Other indicators remained unchanged [12] Propylene and PP - On March 18, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of Shandong propylene increased by 20 to 8020, the price of East China PP increased by 110 to 8980, the price of North China PP increased by 42 to 8625, the price of Shandong powder decreased by 10 to 8400, the price of East China copolymer decreased by 20 to 8820, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 17610. The price of the main futures contract decreased by 43 to 8628 [19] PVC - On March 18, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of ethylene - based PVC in East China decreased by 40 to 5660, and other indicators remained unchanged [20][21]