1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows an upward trend, and the 3 - 5 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [3] - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and it will take time for improvement [3][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67% week - on - week, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased by 0.08 percentage points week - on - week but decreased by 0.50 percentage points compared to before New Year's Day, with poor orders for downstream products [3] - Last week, export orders decreased compared to before New Year's Day, remaining at an average level. The Indian market price is low with limited demand. There may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when the export tax rebate for domestic PVC is cancelled [3] - Social inventory continued to increase last week, remaining at a high level with significant inventory pressure [3] - From January to November 2025, the real - estate market was in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further decreased [3][22] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rebound week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years. The real - estate market needs time to recover [3][22] - A new 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua has started trial production [3] - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all entered the expansion range. The draft of the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi was released, the anti - involution sentiment further intensified, and the Ministry of Finance pre - allocated the 2026 quotas for trade - in and "two - major" projects. The macro environment is favorable, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market [3] - The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current output decline is limited. There are still few maintenance devices this week, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [3] 3.2 PVC Basis - The current 05 basis is - 247 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [12] 3.3 PVC Operating Rate - Affected by the devices of Shaanxi Jintai, Ningbo Hanhua, etc., the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years [17] 3.4 Real - Estate Data - From January to November 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% (residential sales area decreased by 8.1%). The commercial housing sales volume was 751.30 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% (residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%) [22] - From January to November 2025, the new construction area of housing was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% (residential new construction area decreased by 19.9%). The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [22] - From January to November 2025, the completion area of housing was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% (residential completion area decreased by 20.1%) [22] - As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [22] 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, a 40.98% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level [23]