冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工率转而小幅增 加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关 于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周 出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调 整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城 市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC 开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生 ...

烧碱 :现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格阴跌，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱期货与32碱价格走势 -400 -200 0 200 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 2700 2800 06/19 07/29 09/07 10/17 基差 32碱-山东（折百） 主力合约 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.6%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，华北、东北负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+2.9%至95.7%；华北+2.1% ...

氯碱产业链、LPG 与橡胶——无化不谈 20251121 摘要 PVC 新增产能显著，但房地产需求疲软和出口不确定性导致基本面偏弱。 截至 10 月中旬，外购电石的 PVC 利润进一步亏损，10 月上旬山东外购 电石的 PVC 利润跌至负 300 元以下，并进一步扩大至负 350~-400 元 区间。 短期内，PVC 开工率预计维持高位，但印度反倾销政策是出口核心变量。 印度前期集中补库，10 月份新增订单趋于一般且采购意愿下降，预计四 季度出口量将较三季度小幅回落。11 月 12 日印度宣布撤销包括 PVC 在 内的 14 类化工品 BS 认证要求，这一变化将减少 BS 认证对出口造成的 波动。 PVC 库存水平明显高于往年同期，截至 11 月中旬最新库存为 50.59 万 吨，同比增加约 25%。高库存主要由于新增产能投放、检修减少及需求 不足所致。在没有大规模减产或显著改善出口之前，库存去化难度仍然 较大。 烧碱方面，2025 年计划投产新产能，供应端压力依然较大。自 11 月以 来烧碱价格持续小幅回落至 2,450 元左右，ECU 利润回落至 200~300 元区间，好于 8~9 月份水平，使得烧碱开 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600618 900908 证券简称：氯碱化工 氯碱B股 公告编号：2025-024 关于召开2025年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2025年12月2日(星期二) 15:00-16:00 会议召开地点：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于2025年11月25日(星期二)至12月1日(星期一)16:00前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预 征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱chenlihua_lj@shhuayi.com进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的 问题进行回答。 上海氯碱化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于2025年10月28日发布公司2025年第三季度报告，为 便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司2025年第三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于2025年12月2 日(星期二)1 ...

PVC周报： 仓单再创新高，低位震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/11/16 证监许可[2025]75号 仓单再创新高，产业套保施压 【本周复盘】 本周PVC触底反弹，周线3连阴，主力再创年内新低。周初平开在4613，随后冲高回落，延续上周下 跌趋势；至周四夜盘跌至周内低点4560后低位反弹，周五午盘冲至日内高点4635后小幅回落，最终 收在4608（较上周收跌3点或0.6%）。全周在4560至4635间运行，振幅75点。 【下周展望】 基本面弱势难改，关注资金动态。11-12月氯碱企业传统开工淡季，产业链去库压力依旧偏高，盘 面维持升水结构，本周五仓单再创历史新高达到12.9万手，重点关注印度反倾销税政策变动。成本 端，电石毛利跌至低位，原料端兰炭表现坚挺，成本支撑有望走强。11月14月，主力持仓量为135 万手（同比+20万手）。考虑到11月中下旬后资金逐步开始移仓换月，关注空头平仓带来的阶段性 低多机会。 【策略】 1）单边：短期绝对价格低估值，根据资金动态轻仓参与反弹。V2601关注区 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PVC will experience volatile consolidation in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and weak cost support due to the end of maintenance by some production enterprises will still put pressure on PVC [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC production start - up rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC start - up rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India, but the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping tax has led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a week - on - week decline in export orders last week. Social inventory decreased slightly this week but remains high, and inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time for improvement [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 4,580 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,635 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,608 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.72%. The position volume decreased by 44,024 lots to 1,348,369 lots [2]. - Basis: On November 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,535 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,608 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 73 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC production start - up rate to decrease by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line that started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production line that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year production lines operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of November 9, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline by 32.15% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high [6].

Core Viewpoint - Beiyuan Group (601568.SH) has established an integrated circular economy industrial chain that includes coal, salt, power generation, calcium carbide, chlor-alkali chemicals (ion membrane caustic soda, PVC), and comprehensive utilization of industrial waste to produce cement, which aligns with the policy of "coal and new energy integration development" [1] Group 1 - The company has built a 300MW photovoltaic power generation project, demonstrating a solid foundation for the collaborative utilization of energy resources [1] - The company's strategic direction focuses on energy conservation and emission reduction, optimizing energy structure, and lowering overall energy consumption, which is positively influenced by the current policy environment [1] - The integration of coal and new energy development is expected to significantly promote the company's green transformation and development [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Tianyuan Co., Ltd. has shown fluctuations in its stock performance and financial metrics, with a notable decrease in revenue but a significant increase in net profit year-on-year. Group 1: Stock Performance - On November 11, Tianyuan's stock rose by 0.16%, with a trading volume of 260 million yuan [1] - The financing buy-in amount on the same day was 20.28 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 37.11 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -16.82 million yuan [1] - As of November 11, the total financing and securities balance for Tianyuan was 309 million yuan, which is 3.79% of its circulating market value, indicating a low financing balance compared to the past year [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tianyuan reported a revenue of 8.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.89% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 31.69 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 132.63% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 20, the number of shareholders for Tianyuan was 51,000, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous period [2] - The average circulating shares per person increased by 0.55% to 25,517 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Tianyuan has distributed a total of 699 million yuan in dividends, with 202 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

在需求复苏预期与行业自律的共振下，沉寂已久的化工行业正显露出周期反转的迹象。 11月10日周一，磷化工板块延续上周强势，澄星股份走出三连板，云图控股、清水源等个股纷纷跟涨。 | | | | 600078 澄星股份 13.13 +1.19 +9.97% | | | | | | | | | | | | El | | 600078 澄星股份 | | | 0 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 财务 | 预测 | | 公司行动 | | 简況 | | | | | | | | | | 交易中 11/10 14:51:55 | | | | 래 정 | | △ 指标 | र्य | 0 | પટ | প্র | = | 2 | | | | | | | | ( ි) | к д @ | | 13.13 + +1.19 +9.97% | | | | | [D] ▼ | 5日 | 日K | 周 ...

本报记者张晓玉陈红 11月10日，巴菲特青睐的化工行业迎来强势表现。截至11月10日上午收盘，根据东方财富（300059）数据，A股基础化工(申万)板块指数上涨1.68%，收于 4354.55点，当日成交额达1121.49亿元，今年以来累计涨幅32.74%。 东方证券分析认为，巴菲特选择投资OxyChem，核心是看中氯碱化工（600618）行业的长期价值——当前中美市场需求端已出现边际改善迹象，国内相 关产能扩张基本进入收尾阶段，而化工大宗品生产本身具备较高的技术壁垒与能源壁垒，新兴国家短期内难以自主建设同类大型项目，这使得PVC等高耗 能产品有望接力MDI实现景气度修复。 中信证券研报指出，当前化工板块交易围绕三大主线展开：一是储能需求带动产业链景气度提升，上游锂电等材料供需格局有望重塑；二是化工"反内 卷"持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，推动化工品价格从底部回暖；三是部分化工品行业自身保持高景气，主营业务有望维持高增长。 板块内275只个股上涨，122只下跌，6只平盘。其中，柳化股份（600423）、三孚股份（603938）、佛塑科技（000973）、新乡化纤（000949）、安纳达 （002136）、鲁西 ...