张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在79.43%环比减少0.46%，同比减少0.07%；其中电石法在79.66%环比减少2.99%，同比减少0.54%，乙烯法在78.90%环比增加5.46%，同比增加1.39%。 | | | | （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企业开工在37.60%，环 ...

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stable with slight declines, with mainstream market fluctuations between 0-10 yuan/ton, and low trading activity due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4670-4790 yuan/ton, South China at 4760-4830 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4540-4640 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4650-4730 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 76.11%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points week-on-week; the calcium carbide method operates at 76.97% (up 0.06 percentage points), while the ethylene method operates at 74.12% (up 2.12 percentage points) [2] - As of September 25, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises have increased by 2.91% to 5.3 days, indicating a rise in factory inventory levels amid weak market demand [2] PVC Market Outlook - As the holiday approaches, the PVC market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances remaining challenging to resolve in Q3, leading to a general weakening of both futures and spot prices [3] - High production levels continue to create an oversupply situation, while demand has not shown significant improvement during the peak season, with a notable contraction in profile demand [3] - The upstream holding willingness is decreasing, but export activities are providing some relief from the oversupply pressure; cost support remains from rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices [3]