转自：期货日报 受益于短期出口回暖、国内经济预期继续向好以及大宗商品市场乐观预期，上周五PVC期货价格震荡上 行，盘中一度攀升至5125元／吨，创下去年12月中旬以来的新高。截至日盘收盘，上涨3.41%，至5063 元／吨。处在基本面弱现实与政策强预期的博弈阶段，PVC价格将维持偏强震荡走势。 短期供应压力仍存，长期收缩逻辑明确 从供应角度来看，PVC市场"短期宽松、长期收紧"的二元格局逐渐明朗。江苏新浦、宁波韩华等装置恢 复生产，进一步补充了市场货源，短期供应宽松。据了解，1月PVC检修装置减少、产能利用率提升， 带动当月产量增加至历史同期偏高水平。据隆众资讯发布的数据，1月PVC行业整体开工率保持高位， 产能利用率预估在78.98%，环比提升0.56个百分点。其中，电石法PVC产能利用率预估在79.76%，环比 提升0.6个百分点；乙烯法PVC产能利用率预估在77.14%，环比提升0.57个百分点。受此影响，1月国内 PVC产量预估在214.71万吨，环比增加5.08万吨，增幅为2.42%。 不过，中长期而言，"反内卷"导向下的产量收缩已成共识。今年PVC新增产能仅30万吨（嘉兴嘉化装 置），扩能周期趋于 ...

张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 PVC:国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【PVC 周报（PVC ）】 国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）本周国内PVC现货市场窄幅调整，基本面难改供大于求格局，PVC供应受检修影响小幅上升，市场需求维持平淡。（2）本周PVC生产企业产能利用 | | | | 率在79.43%环比减少0.46%，同比减少0.07%；其中电石法在79.66%环比减少2.99%，同比减少0.54%，乙烯法在78.90%环比增加5.46%，同比增加1.39%。 | | | | （1）下游需求进入淡季，下游开工下滑。（2）国内PVC管材样本企业开工在37.60%，环 ...

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stable with slight declines, with mainstream market fluctuations between 0-10 yuan/ton, and low trading activity due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4670-4790 yuan/ton, South China at 4760-4830 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4540-4640 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4650-4730 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 76.11%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points week-on-week; the calcium carbide method operates at 76.97% (up 0.06 percentage points), while the ethylene method operates at 74.12% (up 2.12 percentage points) [2] - As of September 25, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises have increased by 2.91% to 5.3 days, indicating a rise in factory inventory levels amid weak market demand [2] PVC Market Outlook - As the holiday approaches, the PVC market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with supply-demand imbalances remaining challenging to resolve in Q3, leading to a general weakening of both futures and spot prices [3] - High production levels continue to create an oversupply situation, while demand has not shown significant improvement during the peak season, with a notable contraction in profile demand [3] - The upstream holding willingness is decreasing, but export activities are providing some relief from the oversupply pressure; cost support remains from rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices [3]