Market Overview - As of January 23, 2026, the main PVC futures contract closed at 4921 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 48,696 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of January 19-23, the PVC futures opened at 4806 CNY/ton, reached a high of 4926 CNY/ton, and a low of 4708 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly price change of 2.07% [1] Price Trends - On January 22, the spot prices for PVC in Hangzhou stabilized, with slight increases in transaction prices. The prices for different types of PVC ranged from 4500 to 4720 CNY/ton [2] - The domestic PVC powder operating rate decreased by 1.10 percentage points to 77.98% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Yibin's 200,000-ton facility has restarted, while Wanhua's 500,000-ton facility has been affected by shutdowns, leading to little change in PVC capacity utilization [2] - The social inventory of PVC has reached a record high, following the strength of the chemical sector. However, the overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, with domestic operating rates rising to 80% [3] - PVC production companies are maintaining high supply levels, but domestic demand is in a traditional off-season, leading to rapid accumulation of industry inventory [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) has seen significant inflows and performance, reflecting a positive outlook for the chemical industry as it undergoes structural changes and optimization [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of January 14, the chemical ETF Tianhong (159133) reached a new high with a total size of 843 million yuan and 735 million shares outstanding [2]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, accumulating a total of 233 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of the 13% export tax rebate on PVC powder starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to increase export costs by approximately 75 USD per ton. This may lead to a short-term surge in exports and a long-term shift towards high-value products and overseas capacity [2]. - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low point, with a shift from capacity expansion to optimization driven by "anti-involution" policies. Key sectors such as coal chemical, organic silicon, and pesticides are expected to see a supply-demand reversal [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Leading companies in the chemical sector are anticipated to benefit from the ongoing exit of low-efficiency capacity and the transition to high-value products, with potential profit recovery expected [3]. - Sub-industries with resource attributes or technical barriers, such as phosphorus chemicals and refrigerants, may present opportunities for value reassessment [3].

1月9日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，产品清单明确将 PVC粉、未塑化PVC、已塑化PVC纳入调整范围，核心影响条款关乎PVC出口：自2026年4月1日起，取 消PVC粉增值税出口退税。 目前，该品类的出口退税率为13%。该政策对PVC市场的深远影响，正引发产业界与资本市场的广泛关 注。 卓创资讯（301299）分析师李敏表示，这一政策将直接抬升出口成本。以当前国内PVC粉价格4500元/ 吨计算，退税取消后出口成本将增加约75美元/吨。 从出口基本面看，近年来中国PVC粉出口已成为弥补国内需求不足的重要支撑。数据显示，2024年出口 总量达261.7万吨，2025年预计突破380万吨，出口量持续攀升的背后，是全球需求增加与国内供大于求 格局的双重推动。 "即便抢出口带动价格短期反弹，大概率也是昙花一现。"阙云云坦言。 市场曾出现猜测，美国PVC货源或借机替代中国产品，填补海外需求缺口。但这一逻辑被基本面数据否 定。 阙云云介绍，美国PVC出口存在明确的区域锁定性：墨西哥和加拿大进口依存度超60%，且其中90%的 进口量来自美国，这意味着美国货源的核心市场是北美地区。"若 ...

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | TTC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | PVC数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 2025/12/25 陈一凡一G 从业资格证:F3054270 | | 指标 | | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | 煤灰 | Q5500 | 701 | 694 | | | | 一炭 | 陕西中料 | 850 | 820 - | -30 | | | 电石 | 内蒙 | 2400 | 2400 | | | | | 山东 | 2780 | 2780 | 0 | 今日国内PVC粉市场价格反弹,主流市场多数上涨 | | 期货 | 丰力许少 | 4738 | 4781 | 43 | 30-115元/吨。PVC期货价格上涨,现货市场一口价及 | | | 华东SG-5 | 4420 | 4480 | 60 | 点价并存,下游多数观望为主,整体成交 ...

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have decreased, with most mainstream markets dropping by 15-65 yuan/ton [1] - PVC futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, and the spot market has seen slight price adjustments with limited high-price transactions [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to average transaction volumes in the spot market [1] PVC Production and Inventory - According to Zhuochuang Information, the overall PVC powder operating rate is 76.12%, a decrease of 2.27 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 77.01%, down by 2.12 percentage points, while the ethylene method is at 74.06%, down by 2.61 percentage points [1] - As of December 18, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.3 days, a decrease of 2.75% due to reduced market supply and increased pre-sale deliveries [1] PVC Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound operation due to cautious demand and low purchasing enthusiasm [1] - The demand side remains under pressure, with seasonal declines in construction activities and reduced real estate demand negatively impacting the market [1] - Export demand, particularly from India, is limited, and international competition is fierce, leading to an overall weak demand environment for PVC [1]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market has been under pressure since 2025 due to increased supply and decreased demand, with prices hitting a nearly 10-year low. Recent price increases lack strong driving forces, and future price recovery will depend on policy effects and export conditions [1]. Supply Summary - In 2025, the PVC market will see an additional capacity of 2.2 million tons, with a net increase of 2.05 million tons, bringing total capacity to 29.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%. Ethylene-based capacity will account for 80% of this [1]. - From January to November, domestic PVC production reached 22.32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.35%, with ethylene-based production growing by 11.48% [1]. - The operating rate for PVC powder is currently at 78.39%, down 0.62 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a reduction in production due to safety and production task considerations [1]. Inventory Summary - As of December 12, domestic PVC social inventory stood at 1.0593 million tons, with East and South China warehouses at historically high levels for this time of year. Despite the peak season, inventory levels have not decreased effectively [2]. - The pressure from high inventory levels remains a core factor affecting prices, with both social and enterprise inventories being high [2]. Demand Summary - Demand for PVC is weak, heavily reliant on the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which have seen significant declines in new construction and investment [3]. - From January to November, new housing starts fell by 20.5%, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%, limiting the demand pull for PVC [3]. - The operating rates for downstream pipe and profile production are below 40%, indicating further weakening demand as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. Export Summary - PVC powder exports increased by 49% year-on-year to 3.23 million tons from January to October, while exports of PVC products fell by 11.5% [4]. - The domestic price advantage for PVC powder has improved order intake, but rising shipping costs may hinder significant export volume increases [4]. - Expectations for a 15% increase in PVC exports in the first half of next year could help alleviate domestic oversupply pressures [4]. Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - The PVC market continues to face supply-demand imbalances, with price increases lacking core driving forces. However, the current market valuation is at historical lows, and potential unplanned maintenance due to losses may limit price declines [5]. - In the mid-term, supply-demand contradictions are expected to gradually ease as more companies may reduce production and extend maintenance periods due to ongoing profit declines [2][5].

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 9th this week (2025/11/10-2025/11/14) with a change of 2.61%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.62 percentage points [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - The demand for bio-based materials is projected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases for companies in this sector, such as Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [2] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market, particularly in Southeast Asia [2] - Companies with a high quota share, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry, characterized by high technical barriers and added value [3] - The domestic market faces a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [3] - Companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are positioned to capitalize on this demand [3] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is becoming more pronounced, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [4] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are favored for their low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [4] - Companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see a revaluation of their worth [4] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies overcoming previous R&D challenges [5] - The shift of downstream industries like consumer electronics and new energy vehicles to domestic production is enhancing the demand for COC/COP materials [5] - Companies like Acolyte are recommended for their potential in the COC polymer production segment [5] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply reductions from major players like Canpotex and Nutrien [6] - The termination of the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement has led to increased prices for wheat and corn, boosting the demand for potash fertilizers [6] - Companies such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining are highlighted as key players in this sector [6] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [7] - Major global manufacturers, including Wanhua Chemical, BASF, Covestro, Huntsman, and Dow, control over 90% of MDI production capacity [7] - Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, with a positive outlook as demand recovers [7] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) at 18.18%, sulfur at 8.96%, and NYMEX natural gas at 5.82% [8] - The top five price decreases included butadiene at -7.89% and hydrofluoric acid at -4.27% [8] Supply Side Tracking - This week, 164 chemical enterprises reported production capacity changes, with 11 new repairs and 5 restarts noted [9]

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.52% to 4714.00 CNY/ton as of October 31 [1] Inventory and Production - As of October 30, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, but increased by 25.09% year-on-year; East China inventory stands at 97160 tons, down 0.57% week-on-week, and up 25.95% year-on-year; South China inventory is at 5840 tons, up 0.54% week-on-week, and up 12.30% year-on-year [2] - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 77.09%, an increase of 3.35% week-on-week; the calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 76.47%, up 4.82% week-on-week; the ethylene method's operating load rate is 78.50%, down 0.06% week-on-week [2] Market Analysis - According to Hengtai Futures, domestic PVC supply is expected to increase while downstream demand remains weak, leading to export pressures and limited market support for prices, indicating potential downward space [4] - Hualian Futures notes that the supply side's operating rates are generally stable, with new capacity of 200,000 tons from Qingdao Bay added this month; however, the market remains under pressure due to continuous capacity release and weak real estate demand [4] - The inventory situation shows a slight accumulation in social inventory while factory inventory decreases, with warehouse receipts continuing to increase; cost-wise, calcium carbide and ethylene prices are weak, leading to insufficient valuation support [4] - Overall, the PVC supply-demand situation remains weak, with the market trending downward influenced by macroeconomic factors, and the focus is on the pressure points around the 4800-4900 CNY/ton resistance level for the 2601 contract [4]

Group 1 - Domestic PVC powder market prices increased, with futures showing volatility; spot pricing and fixed pricing coexist, with limited transactions mainly driven by downstream demand [1] - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week; the operating rate for calcium carbide PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method's operating rate is 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.6 days, a decrease of 11.11% from the previous week, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] Group 2 - The recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. was interpreted as underwhelming, negatively impacting the PVC market; previous price rebounds have halted [3] - Supply side shows low operating rates due to maintenance, but some maintenance is ending this week, leading to increased production and supply returning to high levels [3] - Demand remains low with limited orders from downstream, primarily driven by essential purchases; raw material costs for calcium carbide are rising but with limited space for further increases, while ethylene prices may decrease next week [3]