本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整 体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百 分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9 位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅 为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 2025年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃 化工、COC聚合物、MDI等行业: （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材料或在局部面临颠覆性冲击，低耗 能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗口。对于传统化工企业而言，未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本， 优秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来降低能耗成本，亦或新增产能转 移至 ...

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.52% to 4714.00 CNY/ton as of October 31 [1] Inventory and Production - As of October 30, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, but increased by 25.09% year-on-year; East China inventory stands at 97160 tons, down 0.57% week-on-week, and up 25.95% year-on-year; South China inventory is at 5840 tons, up 0.54% week-on-week, and up 12.30% year-on-year [2] - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 77.09%, an increase of 3.35% week-on-week; the calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 76.47%, up 4.82% week-on-week; the ethylene method's operating load rate is 78.50%, down 0.06% week-on-week [2] Market Analysis - According to Hengtai Futures, domestic PVC supply is expected to increase while downstream demand remains weak, leading to export pressures and limited market support for prices, indicating potential downward space [4] - Hualian Futures notes that the supply side's operating rates are generally stable, with new capacity of 200,000 tons from Qingdao Bay added this month; however, the market remains under pressure due to continuous capacity release and weak real estate demand [4] - The inventory situation shows a slight accumulation in social inventory while factory inventory decreases, with warehouse receipts continuing to increase; cost-wise, calcium carbide and ethylene prices are weak, leading to insufficient valuation support [4] - Overall, the PVC supply-demand situation remains weak, with the market trending downward influenced by macroeconomic factors, and the focus is on the pressure points around the 4800-4900 CNY/ton resistance level for the 2601 contract [4]

Group 1 - Domestic PVC powder market prices increased, with futures showing volatility; spot pricing and fixed pricing coexist, with limited transactions mainly driven by downstream demand [1] - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week; the operating rate for calcium carbide PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method's operating rate is 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.6 days, a decrease of 11.11% from the previous week, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] Group 2 - The recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. was interpreted as underwhelming, negatively impacting the PVC market; previous price rebounds have halted [3] - Supply side shows low operating rates due to maintenance, but some maintenance is ending this week, leading to increased production and supply returning to high levels [3] - Demand remains low with limited orders from downstream, primarily driven by essential purchases; raw material costs for calcium carbide are rising but with limited space for further increases, while ethylene prices may decrease next week [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with most prices increasing by 5-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed a range-bound movement before rising, while traders' quoted prices remained largely unchanged [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to overall weak spot transactions [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method saw an increase to 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China decreased by 11.11% to 5.6 days, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] PVC Market Outlook - Last week, the PVC market stabilized after a decline, showing a trend of fluctuation [3] - Supply side remains low due to ongoing maintenance, but production is expected to increase as maintenance ends next week [3] - Demand from downstream remains weak with limited orders, while raw material costs are rising but expected to stabilize [3] - The market outlook suggests continued pressure on prices, but absolute prices are considered low, indicating potential for short-term rebounds [3]

Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market shows a strong price adjustment today, with mainstream market prices increasing by 0-15 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 75.14%, a decrease of 5.66 percentage points from last week [2] - Social inventory of PVC as of October 9 has increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] Group 2 - Supply and demand pressures remain significant, with both futures and spot prices trending weakly [3] - The demand side shows no significant performance during the peak season, indicating a lack of robust demand from downstream product companies [3] - Cost factors indicate that the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to rise initially and then fall, while ethylene prices may remain firm [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high macro - policy uncertainty, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Domestic PVC powder market prices had a narrow - range adjustment today, with mainstream markets seeing small increases and decreases, and price fluctuations mostly within 0 - 10 yuan/ton. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and overall spot trading was light. The prices of 5 - type calcium carbide materials were as follows: in East China, the mainstream spot cash self - pick - up price was 4560 - 4670 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 4620 - 4690 yuan/ton; in Hebei, the spot cash delivered price was 4440 - 4550 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was 4570 - 4610 yuan/ton [1] 2. Futures Market - The futures market was weak in last night's session and showed a slightly stronger oscillation today. Traders' early fixed - price quotes changed little, and some basis quotes strengthened slightly, but high - price transactions were difficult [1] 3. Price Changes - Coal ash (Q5500) increased from 728 to 736, with a change of 18; Fengli Jixue futures increased from 4677 to 4694, with a change of 17; FAS Houston increased from 551 to 571, with a change of 20 [1] 4. Basis - The basis in East China decreased from - 97 to - 114, a change of - 17; in South China, it decreased from - 17 to - 34, a change of - 17; in another area, it decreased from - 117 to - 134, a change of - 17 [1] 5. Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 1240, and that of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained at - 969 [1] 6. External Market - CFR China remained at 706, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 649 [1] 7. Operating Rates - The operating rate of calcium carbide method increased from 82.13% to 82.94%, a change of 0.81%; the operating rate of ethylene method increased from 79.75% to 81.9%, a change of 2.15%; the total operating rate increased from 81.42% to 82.63%, a change of 1.21% [1] 8. Inventory - East China's inventory increased from 48.84 to 50.27, a change of 1.43; South China's inventory increased from 4.93 to 5.43, a change of 0.5; social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7, a change of 1.93 [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The macro - policy has high uncertainty, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - Domestic PVC powder market prices were narrowly adjusted, with mainstream markets slightly rising or falling, and price fluctuations mostly in the range of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and overall spot trading was light. The mainstream spot cash self - pick - up prices for type 5 calcium carbide PVC were 4560 - 4670 yuan/ton in East China, 4620 - 4690 yuan/ton in South China, 4440 - 4550 yuan/ton delivered in cash in Hebei, and 4570 - 4610 yuan/ton delivered in cash in Shandong [1] Futures Market - The futures market was weak in the night session yesterday and showed a slightly stronger overall oscillation today. The fixed - price quotes of traders in the morning changed little, and some of the basis quotes strengthened slightly, but high - price transactions were difficult [1] Basis - The basis in East China decreased from - 97 to - 114, in South China from - 17 to - 34, and in another area from - 117 to - 134, all with a decrease of 17 [1] Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained unchanged at - 1240 and - 969 respectively [1] External Market - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 706 and 649 respectively [1] Operating Rate - The operating rate of calcium carbide method increased from 82.13% to 82.94%, that of ethylene method increased from 79.75% to 81.9%, and the total operating rate increased from 81.42% to 82.63% [1] Inventory - The inventory in East China increased from 48.84 to 50.27, in South China from 4.93 to 5.43, and the social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7 [1]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with price changes mostly within 0-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed weakness, but overall trading remained slightly strong, with traders' prices remaining stable [1] - Downstream purchasing activity is generally moderate, leading to a subdued overall spot transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall PVC powder operating rate is at 80.8%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 81.76%, up 1.75 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 78.54%, up 1.33 percentage points [2] - As of October 9, PVC social inventory increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] - Inventory in East China is 973,100 tons, up 4.74% week-on-week, and 22.73% year-on-year; South China inventory is 63,200 tons, up 20.52% week-on-week, and 37.34% year-on-year [2] PVC Market Outlook - The PVC operating rate has declined significantly, with increased maintenance among production companies, slightly easing market supply pressure [3] - Despite a gradual recovery in domestic and foreign trade exports post-holiday, the industry still faces inventory accumulation pressure, although the rate of accumulation is slowing [3] - The external macroeconomic environment is expected to remain unfavorable in the short term, potentially impacting market trends [3] - Demand during the peak season has not shown significant improvement, with a noticeable contraction in profile demand [3] - Overall, upstream inventory willingness is decreasing, but export benefits are alleviating some excess pressure [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to high macro - policy uncertainty, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On October 14, 2025, the domestic PVC powder market prices declined, with most mainstream market drops ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The night - time futures prices decreased, followed by a slight rebound after intraday range - bound trading. Traders' fixed - price quotes in the morning were lowered, high - price transactions were difficult, some basis quotes strengthened, and point - price transactions had price advantages. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was average, and spot transactions were mediocre. For Type 5 calcium carbide materials, the mainstream spot cash self - pick - up prices were 4560 - 4650 yuan/ton in East China, 4620 - 4680 yuan/ton in South China, 4460 - 4550 yuan/ton delivered in Hebei, and 4540 - 4610 yuan/ton delivered in Shandong [1]. Raw Materials and Futures - Coal ash (Q5500) rose from 715 to 720 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan; Shaanxi medium - sized lanthanum charcoal remained unchanged at 730 yuan; Inner Mongolia calcium carbide dropped from 2550 to 2500 yuan, a decrease of 50 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged at 2830 yuan. Futures prices also declined, with Fengli (unspecified) dropping from 4721 to 4692 yuan, a decrease of 29 yuan; East China SG - 5 dropping from 4610 to 4580 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan; South China SG - 5 dropping by 30 yuan to 4660 yuan [1]. Basis, Profit, and External Market - The basis in East China decreased from - 1118 to - 112, a decrease of 1; in South China, it decreased from - 31 to - 32; another area (marked as R) decreased from - 131 to - 132, a decrease of 1. The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method decreased from - 1210 to - 1240, a decrease of 30; the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method increased from - 979 to - 889, an increase of 91. In the external market, CFR China remained unchanged at 706; CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 649; FAS Houston dropped from 571 to 551, a decrease of 20 [1]. Operating Rate and Inventory - The overall operating rate decreased from 81.42% to 82.63%, a decrease of 1.21%. The calcium carbide method operating rate decreased from 82.13% to 82.94%, a decrease of 0.81%; the ethylene method operating rate decreased from 79.75% to 81.9%, a decrease of 2.15%. Inventory in East China increased from 48.84 to 50.27, an increase of 1.43; in South China, it increased from 4.93 to 5.43, an increase of 0.5; the social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7, an increase of 1.93 [1].