【PVC现货】 假期临近，pvc盘面窄幅震荡。三季度基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，盘面、现货价格共同趋弱。供应 端方面，产量持续高位，过剩格局凸显。需求端，三季度旺季未有明显表现，型材需求持续收缩，旺季 不旺特征明显。整体上游持货意愿下降，不过受益于出口，缓解一定的过剩压力。成本端原料电石维持 上行趋势，乙烯价格维稳，成本端维持底部支撑。四季度关注成本支撑，预计旺季阶段pvc下方空间有 限，关注下游需求表现。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 本周PVC粉整体开工负荷率为76.11%，环比提升0.68个百分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负荷率为 76.97%，环比提升0.06个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为74.12%，环比提升2.12个百分点。 隆众数据统计显示，截至9月25日，中国PV ...

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The overall trading of PVC powder in the domestic market was dull today. The prices of most markets rose slightly, with an increase of 10 - 15 yuan/ton. The PVC powder futures fluctuated slightly higher. Given the high uncertainty of macro - policies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coal and Related Products - The price of Q5500 coal on September 1, 2025, was 694, and on September 2, 2025, it was 693. The price of Shaanxi medium - sized blue charcoal remained at 660. The price of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged at 2400 and 2730 respectively [3] Futures and Spot - The main continuous futures price decreased by 6, from 4894 to 4888. The price of East China SG - 5 remained at 4680, while the price of South China SG - 5 increased by 10 to 4770. The price of R - SG - 5 remained at 4730, and the price of Northwest SG - 5 decreased by 100 to 4420. The price of East China S - 1000 remained at 4950 [3] Basis - The basis in East China increased by 6 to - 208, the basis in South China increased by 16 to - 118, and the basis in another area (referred to as "卡求") increased by 6 to - 158 [3] Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 889, and the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method decreased by 100 to - 668 [3] Outer Market - CFR China increased by 30 to 731, CFR Southeast Asia remained at 679, and FAS Houston decreased by 10 to 607 [3] Start - up Rate - The total start - up rate decreased by 1.59% to 76.02%. The start - up rate of the calcium carbide method increased by 0.44% to 77.25%, and the start - up rate of the ethylene method decreased by 6.64% to 72.95% [3] Inventory - The social inventory increased by 1.39 to 52.19. The inventory in East China increased by 1.34 to 46.36, and the inventory in another area (referred to as "夜南") increased by 0.05 to 5.83 [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PVC production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly week-on-week but shows a year-on-year increase, indicating mixed market conditions for the PVC industry [1]. Production and Capacity - Current PVC production capacity utilization is at 76.02%, down 1.59% week-on-week but up 1.20% year-on-year [1]. - The calcium carbide method utilization is at 77.25%, up 0.44% week-on-week and up 3.56% year-on-year [1]. - The ethylene method utilization is at 72.95%, down 6.64% week-on-week and down 5.12% year-on-year [1]. - The maintenance loss for PVC production this week is 79,320 tons, an increase of 7,620 tons from the previous period [1]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 28, PVC social inventory has increased by 5.10% to 896,300 tons, but shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.66% [1]. - In East China, inventory is at 826,800 tons, up 5.45% week-on-week and down 3.81% year-on-year [1]. - In South China, inventory is at 69,500 tons, up 1.14% week-on-week and up 62.67% year-on-year [1]. Export and Trade Dynamics - India remains the largest export destination for Chinese PVC powder, with a recent anti-dumping investigation resulting in increased tariffs of $122-232 per ton on Chinese imports [1]. - The implementation timeline for these tariffs is not yet announced, leading to increased inquiries and purchases from India [1]. Market Outlook - Newhu Futures anticipates that the operating rate will stabilize around 75% after maintenance, with weak calcium carbide costs and strong caustic soda prices providing some support [2]. - The real estate sector is experiencing slow new starts and construction, leading to low demand and increased inventory levels [2]. - Guantong Futures notes that without actual policy changes, the PVC industry faces significant pressure, with expectations of price fluctuations and potential downward trends [2].

注 2：车规级胶膜新材料、工业级胶粘新材料、可降解新材料产量、销量计量单位为万平方米；民用消费 级胶粘新材料按市场习惯，产量、销量计量单位分二类，分别为万平方米、万千克； 注 3：民用消费级胶粘新材料（万千克）产销率低系 OPP 膜等存在部分自用再加工成 OPP 胶带出售所致。 二、主要产品价格变动情况 证券代码：603681 证券简称：永冠新材 公告编号：2025-068 转债代码：113653 转债简称：永22转债 上海永冠众诚新材料科技（集团）股份有限公司 2025 年第二季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十 三号——化工》的要求，现将上海永冠众诚新材料科技（集团）股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）2025 年第二季度主要经营数据披露如下（均不含税）： 注 1：为更好地反映公司的经营情况，加强与市场、投资者的沟通，公司自 2024 年第四季度开始对公司产 品的披露大类作了重分类调整，从原按基材等分类调整到按应用领域分类； ...

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has slightly increased, with mainstream market prices rising by 5-35 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume remains low due to weak downstream procurement activity [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 75.02%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The inventory days for PVC production enterprises have decreased by 5.56%, currently at 5.1 days, due to high pre-sale orders and reduced supply from maintenance [2] PVC Market Outlook - The market is expected to face supply pressure due to increased production and weak demand from downstream product manufacturers [3] - Export pressures are rising due to the announcement of anti-dumping duties by Indonesia [3] - Despite supply and demand pressures, the market may see short-term strength driven by coal prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The domestic PVC powder market price showed a narrow - range adjustment today, with the mainstream market price fluctuating slightly and the price center in some local markets moving down slightly. The futures market oscillated within a range, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, with most buyers preferring to wait and see. However, some export orders were acceptable. Due to the high uncertainty of macro - policies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2][4] Summary by Relevant Content Raw Material Prices - Coal (Q5500) price on August 21 and 22, 2025, was 702, with no change [1] - Shaanxi medium - grade lanthanum charcoal price on August 21 and 22, 2025, was 630, with no change; Inner Mongolia lanthanum charcoal price increased from 2300 to 2350, a rise of 50 [1] - Shandong calcium carbide price on August 21 and 22, 2025, was 2755, with no change [1] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures (main continuous) price increased from 5004 to 5019 on August 21 - 22, 2025 [1] - Spot prices:华东SG - 5 remained at 4740 on August 21 - 22, 2025;华南SG - 5 decreased from 4840 to 4830;华北SG - 5 remained at 4750;西北SG - 5 decreased from 4650 to 4520;华东S - 1000 remained at 5000 [1] - Mainstream spot prices of 5 - type calcium carbide materials:华东 mainstream spot cash self - pick - up was 4760 - 4850 yuan/ton;华南 mainstream spot cash self - pick - up was 4780 - 4840 yuan/ton; Hebei spot cash delivery was 4650 - 4760 yuan/ton; Shandong spot cash delivery was 4730 - 4800 yuan/ton [2] Basis and Profit - Basis:华东 decreased from - 264 to - 279;华南 decreased from - 164 to - 189;华北 decreased from - 254 to - 269 [1] - Shandong calcium carbide method profit remained at - 914 on August 21 - 22, 2025 [1] Operating Rates and Inventory - Total operating rate was 80.33%, a decrease of 2.72% compared to 77.61% [4] - Calcium carbide method operating rate decreased from 79.96% to 76.81%, a decrease of 3.15%; Ethylene method operating rate decreased from 81.26% to 79.59%, a decrease of 1.67% [4] - Inventory:华东 decreased from 45.02 to 43.52;华南 increased from 5.76 to 5.78; Social inventory decreased from 50.8 to 49.28 [4] Outer - plate Prices - CFR China remained at 701; CFR Southeast Asia remained at 679; FAS Houston decreased from 627 to 617 [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the domestic PVC powder market price slightly declined on August 22, 2025, with weaker trading volume. Given the high uncertainty of macro - policies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price slightly declined on August 22, 2025, and trading volume weakened. Futures prices first fell and then rose, with the basis partially increasing by 20 - 30. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and most transactions were made through price - setting. Trading was concentrated in the morning, and there were limited transactions in the afternoon when futures rebounded. The mainstream spot cash self - pick - up prices for Type 5 calcium carbide materials were 4740 - 4840 yuan/ton in East China, 4800 - 4850 yuan/ton in South China, 4670 - 4720 yuan/ton for cash delivery in Hebei, and 4730 - 4790 yuan/ton for cash delivery in Shandong [2][4]. Operating Rate - The overall operating rate was 79.46%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 78.65%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points, and the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.49%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points. The operating rate in East China was 42.37, a decrease of 1.15 [3]. Inventory - The inventory in South China was 5.71, a decrease of 0.05, and the social inventory was 48.08, a decrease of 1.2 [3]. Price and Profit Indicators - The prices of various raw materials and products on August 20 - 21, 2025, are as follows: coal (Q5500) was 702, Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke was 630, Inner Mongolia calcium carbide was 2300, Shandong calcium carbide was 2755, the futures main continuous contract was 5004 - 5008, and the prices of different regions and types of PVC products also changed slightly. The basis in different regions increased by 4, and the profit of Shandong calcium carbide method and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained unchanged. The FAS Houston price in the outer market decreased by 10 [2][4].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have declined, with mainstream market prices dropping by 10-40 yuan/ton. The futures market has also seen a downward trend, leading to a slight strengthening of the basis as traders adjust their prices accordingly [1] - Downstream purchasing activity has shown a slight improvement, with localized enhancements in spot transactions. Current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4770-4880 yuan/ton, South China at 4820-4890 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4650-4780 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4750-4830 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 78.84%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous week. The calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 79.21%, up by 1.38 percentage points, while the ethylene method's load rate is 77.92%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points [2] - As of August 14, the inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production at 5.4 days, down by 3.57% from the previous period. This reduction is attributed to sustained high pre-sale orders being shipped [2] PVC Market Outlook - The supply side is facing pressure from new capacity being released, with domestic trade remaining weak and spot transactions showing a lack of strength. Inventory pressure is expected to continue to rise, with no significant improvement in demand anticipated [3] - New capacities are expected to be released in August from companies such as Wanhua in Fujian and Tianjin Bohua, with Gansu Yaowang planning to start production in August and Qingdao Bay planning to start in September. This influx of new capacity adds further pressure to the PVC supply side [3] - Downstream production enterprises are operating at low rates, and purchasing enthusiasm remains weak, indicating that the industry is still in a seasonal downturn. Overall, the supply-demand pressure remains significant, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market prices have decreased, with mainstream market prices dropping by 40-55 yuan/ton, influenced by the downward trend in futures [1] - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 77.75%, an increase of 4.49 percentage points compared to the previous week [2] - The inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production down by 3.45% to 5.6 days [2] Group 2 - New production capacities are being released, leading to increased supply pressure on PVC, while demand remains weak with downstream enterprises showing low operating rates [3] - The overall market is still in a low season, with no improvement in demand expected, and the industry faces significant supply-demand pressure [3] - The impact of coking coal disturbances on the cost side is affecting the PVC market, suggesting a short-term wait-and-see approach [3]