| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | TTC国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | PVC数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 | | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 2025/12/25 陈一凡一G 从业资格证:F3054270 | | 指标 | | 2025/12/23 | 2025/12/24 | 变动值 | 现货综述 | | 煤灰 | Q5500 | 701 | 694 | | | | 一炭 | 陕西中料 | 850 | 820 - | -30 | | | 电石 | 内蒙 | 2400 | 2400 | | | | | 山东 | 2780 | 2780 | 0 | 今日国内PVC粉市场价格反弹,主流市场多数上涨 | | 期货 | 丰力许少 | 4738 | 4781 | 43 | 30-115元/吨。PVC期货价格上涨,现货市场一口价及 | | | 华东SG-5 | 4420 | 4480 | 60 | 点价并存,下游多数观望为主,整体成交 ...

【PVC现货】 今日国内PVC粉市场价格走低，主流市场多数下跌15-65元/吨。PVC期货弱势震荡，现货市场一口价报 盘部分小幅下调，高价几无成交支撑，部分实单小幅商谈，基差报盘变化不大，点价成交优势较明显。 下游采购积极性不高，现货市场成交平平。华东主流现汇自提4290-4400元/吨，华南主流现汇自提4350- 4390元/吨，河北现汇送到4200-4300元/吨，山东现汇送到4270-4400元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：据卓创资讯（301299）数据显示，本周PVC粉整体开工负荷率为76.12%，环比上周下降2.27个百 分点；其中电石法PVC粉开工负荷率为77.01%，环比下降2.12个百分点；乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为 74.06%，环比下降2.61个百分点。 库存：截至12月18日，中国PVC生产企业厂库库存可产天数在5.3天，环比减少2.75%，企业检修及降幅 减轻市场供应，叠加企业高预售交付增加，在库天数环比下降。 【PVC行情展望】 盘面受整体宏观提振走强，但刚需市场表现谨慎，采购积极性欠佳。需求端内外存压，持续低迷，淡季 下硬制品开工低位，软制品相对稳定。成本端支撑预期松动，预期 ...

出口方面，原料及制品出口有所分化。1—10月PVC粉累计出口323万吨，同比大增49%，但PVC制品出 口大幅下滑，1—10月铺地材料累计出口同比降低11.5%。印度反倾销政策尚未落地，国内PVC粉出口价 格优势带动接单阶段性好转，但受船运费用上涨等因素影响，预计出口接单难以再度出现集中放量的情 况，对国内库存消化支撑作用显著弱化。中期来看，明年一、二季度是海外的需求旺季，PVC出口存改 善预期，出口量预计增长15%左右，将有效缓解国内过剩压力。 当前国内PVC粉价格仍然处于历史偏低水平，成本端电石价格维持稳定，而烧碱价格持续下挫。截至12 月12日，西北氯碱综合利润为250元／吨，但山东地区氯碱装置亏损达600元／吨，"以碱补氯"对PVC生 产的支撑大幅减弱。电石法PVC亏损幅度在1000元／吨左右，乙烯法PVC亏损在500元／吨左右，行业 亏损格局未改，高成本装置或有序退出。 2025年以来，PVC市场因供增需减、地产疲软等因素陷入弱势，价格创近10年新低。本周以来，PVC期 货价格连续拉升，主力合约昨日收涨2.16%。笔者认为，短期期价大幅走强缺乏核心驱动力。中期来 看，期价能否迎来反转仍要关注政策效果 ...

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 9th this week (2025/11/10-2025/11/14) with a change of 2.61%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.62 percentage points [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - The demand for bio-based materials is projected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases for companies in this sector, such as Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [2] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market, particularly in Southeast Asia [2] - Companies with a high quota share, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry, characterized by high technical barriers and added value [3] - The domestic market faces a mismatch between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting opportunities for domestic replacements [3] - Companies like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are positioned to capitalize on this demand [3] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is becoming more pronounced, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [4] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are favored for their low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [4] - Companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see a revaluation of their worth [4] COC Polymers - The industrialization of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies overcoming previous R&D challenges [5] - The shift of downstream industries like consumer electronics and new energy vehicles to domestic production is enhancing the demand for COC/COP materials [5] - Companies like Acolyte are recommended for their potential in the COC polymer production segment [5] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply reductions from major players like Canpotex and Nutrien [6] - The termination of the Black Sea Grain Export Agreement has led to increased prices for wheat and corn, boosting the demand for potash fertilizers [6] - Companies such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining are highlighted as key players in this sector [6] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily increasing due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [7] - Major global manufacturers, including Wanhua Chemical, BASF, Covestro, Huntsman, and Dow, control over 90% of MDI production capacity [7] - Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, with a positive outlook as demand recovers [7] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included dimethylcyclosiloxane (DMC) at 18.18%, sulfur at 8.96%, and NYMEX natural gas at 5.82% [8] - The top five price decreases included butadiene at -7.89% and hydrofluoric acid at -4.27% [8] Supply Side Tracking - This week, 164 chemical enterprises reported production capacity changes, with 11 new repairs and 5 restarts noted [9]

Core Viewpoint - PVC futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.52% to 4714.00 CNY/ton as of October 31 [1] Inventory and Production - As of October 30, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons, but increased by 25.09% year-on-year; East China inventory stands at 97160 tons, down 0.57% week-on-week, and up 25.95% year-on-year; South China inventory is at 5840 tons, up 0.54% week-on-week, and up 12.30% year-on-year [2] - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 77.09%, an increase of 3.35% week-on-week; the calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 76.47%, up 4.82% week-on-week; the ethylene method's operating load rate is 78.50%, down 0.06% week-on-week [2] Market Analysis - According to Hengtai Futures, domestic PVC supply is expected to increase while downstream demand remains weak, leading to export pressures and limited market support for prices, indicating potential downward space [4] - Hualian Futures notes that the supply side's operating rates are generally stable, with new capacity of 200,000 tons from Qingdao Bay added this month; however, the market remains under pressure due to continuous capacity release and weak real estate demand [4] - The inventory situation shows a slight accumulation in social inventory while factory inventory decreases, with warehouse receipts continuing to increase; cost-wise, calcium carbide and ethylene prices are weak, leading to insufficient valuation support [4] - Overall, the PVC supply-demand situation remains weak, with the market trending downward influenced by macroeconomic factors, and the focus is on the pressure points around the 4800-4900 CNY/ton resistance level for the 2601 contract [4]

Group 1 - Domestic PVC powder market prices increased, with futures showing volatility; spot pricing and fixed pricing coexist, with limited transactions mainly driven by downstream demand [1] - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week; the operating rate for calcium carbide PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method's operating rate is 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 5.6 days, a decrease of 11.11% from the previous week, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] Group 2 - The recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. was interpreted as underwhelming, negatively impacting the PVC market; previous price rebounds have halted [3] - Supply side shows low operating rates due to maintenance, but some maintenance is ending this week, leading to increased production and supply returning to high levels [3] - Demand remains low with limited orders from downstream, primarily driven by essential purchases; raw material costs for calcium carbide are rising but with limited space for further increases, while ethylene prices may decrease next week [3]

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, with most prices increasing by 5-10 yuan/ton [1] - The futures market showed a range-bound movement before rising, while traders' quoted prices remained largely unchanged [1] - Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, leading to overall weak spot transactions [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 73.74%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from last week [2] - The operating rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 71.65%, down 3.08 percentage points, while the ethylene method saw an increase to 78.56%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - As of October 23, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China decreased by 11.11% to 5.6 days, attributed to maintenance and upstream deliveries [2] PVC Market Outlook - Last week, the PVC market stabilized after a decline, showing a trend of fluctuation [3] - Supply side remains low due to ongoing maintenance, but production is expected to increase as maintenance ends next week [3] - Demand from downstream remains weak with limited orders, while raw material costs are rising but expected to stabilize [3] - The market outlook suggests continued pressure on prices, but absolute prices are considered low, indicating potential for short-term rebounds [3]

Group 1: PVC Market Overview - PVC futures have shown a "V" shaped trend since June 2025, with market logic returning to fundamentals after a period of "anti-involution" [1] - As of now, 1.75 million tons of new PVC production capacity has been added in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Xinpu Chemical and Wanhu Fujian [1] - The total production capacity for PVC is expected to reach 1.95 million tons this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 7% [1] Group 2: Supply and Production Data - From January to September 2025, the cumulative PVC production reached 18.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.11%, with ethylene-based production growing by 9.78% [1] - The supply pressure is primarily driven by ethylene-based production, and with fewer maintenance activities in the fourth quarter, supply-side pressure is expected to increase further [1] Group 3: Demand and Real Estate Impact - PVC is closely linked to the real estate sector, which has seen a decline in investment and construction activities, with a 13.9% drop in real estate development investment from January to September 2025 [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, particularly those related to real estate, remain at historically low levels, indicating weak domestic demand for PVC [2] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Cumulative PVC powder exports from January to September 2025 reached 2.92 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 51%, with major markets including India and Vietnam [3] - However, the potential for export decline in the fourth quarter is a concern due to India's anti-dumping tax adjustments and ongoing trade tensions [3] Group 5: Inventory and Pricing - Domestic PVC social inventory stands at 1.0338 million tons, showing a slight decrease from the previous month but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [3] - The prices of raw materials like calcium carbide and ethylene remain low, contributing to ongoing losses in production methods, yet the overall PVC operating rate has not decreased due to acceptable chlor-alkali profits [4] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The PVC market is characterized by significant supply pressure and weak demand, particularly influenced by the downturn in the real estate sector [4] - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with caution advised for bottom-fishing strategies, while monitoring for potential stabilization signals in the market [4]

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market shows a strong price adjustment today, with mainstream market prices increasing by 0-15 yuan/ton [1] - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 75.14%, a decrease of 5.66 percentage points from last week [2] - Social inventory of PVC as of October 9 has increased by 5.58% to 1.0363 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.53% [2] Group 2 - Supply and demand pressures remain significant, with both futures and spot prices trending weakly [3] - The demand side shows no significant performance during the peak season, indicating a lack of robust demand from downstream product companies [3] - Cost factors indicate that the price of raw material calcium carbide is expected to rise initially and then fall, while ethylene prices may remain firm [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - Due to high macro - policy uncertainty, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Domestic PVC powder market prices had a narrow - range adjustment today, with mainstream markets seeing small increases and decreases, and price fluctuations mostly within 0 - 10 yuan/ton. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average, and overall spot trading was light. The prices of 5 - type calcium carbide materials were as follows: in East China, the mainstream spot cash self - pick - up price was 4560 - 4670 yuan/ton; in South China, it was 4620 - 4690 yuan/ton; in Hebei, the spot cash delivered price was 4440 - 4550 yuan/ton; in Shandong, it was 4570 - 4610 yuan/ton [1] 2. Futures Market - The futures market was weak in last night's session and showed a slightly stronger oscillation today. Traders' early fixed - price quotes changed little, and some basis quotes strengthened slightly, but high - price transactions were difficult [1] 3. Price Changes - Coal ash (Q5500) increased from 728 to 736, with a change of 18; Fengli Jixue futures increased from 4677 to 4694, with a change of 17; FAS Houston increased from 551 to 571, with a change of 20 [1] 4. Basis - The basis in East China decreased from - 97 to - 114, a change of - 17; in South China, it decreased from - 17 to - 34, a change of - 17; in another area, it decreased from - 117 to - 134, a change of - 17 [1] 5. Profit - The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method remained at - 1240, and that of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method remained at - 969 [1] 6. External Market - CFR China remained at 706, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 649 [1] 7. Operating Rates - The operating rate of calcium carbide method increased from 82.13% to 82.94%, a change of 0.81%; the operating rate of ethylene method increased from 79.75% to 81.9%, a change of 2.15%; the total operating rate increased from 81.42% to 82.63%, a change of 1.21% [1] 8. Inventory - East China's inventory increased from 48.84 to 50.27, a change of 1.43; South China's inventory increased from 4.93 to 5.43, a change of 0.5; social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7, a change of 1.93 [1]