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PVC数据日报-20250825
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:47
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 PVC数据日报 投资咨询证:Z0015946 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 ·· 人业资格证:F3054270 指标 2025/08/21 变动值 2025/08/22 煤炭 702 Q5500 702 0 兰炭 陕西中料 630 630 0 内蒙 2300 2350 50 电石 山东 2755 2755 0 期货 主力连续 15 5004 5019 华东SG-5 4740 4740 0 华南SG-5 4840 4830 -10 现货 华北SG-5 4750 4750 0 B 西北SG-5 -130 4650 4520 华东S-1000 5000 5000 0 华东 -264 -279 -15 基差 华南 -164 -25 -189 tell -254 -269 -15 山东电石法 -914- -914 0 利润 今日国内PVC粉市场价格窄幅整理,主流市场价格波动 幅度较小,局部市场价格重心小幅下移。期货区间震 荡,贸易商报盘变化不大,点价成交价格优势不明 显。下游采购积极较低,多数意向观望,现货成交清 淡,但部分出口接单尚可。5型电石料,华东主流 ...
PVC数据日报-20250822
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 04:48
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 [TC 国贸期货 PVC数据日报 投资咨询证:Z0015946 国贸期货研究院 2025/08/22 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 · · 人业资格证:F3054270 现货综述 变动值 2025/08/21 702 0 630 0 2300 0 2755 0 今日国内PVC粉市场价格略跌,成交转弱。期货价格先 5004 -4 跌后涨,基差部分调高20-30,下游采购积极性一般, 4720 0 点价成交为主。今日成交集中在上午,下午期货反 4800 0 弹,成交有限。5型电石料,华东主流现汇自提4740- 630 4 4 4 0 0 00 操作策略 | 开工 | 总开工 | 79. 46% 宏观政策不确定性较大,建议保持观望。 | 80. 33% | 0. 87% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电石法 | | 78. 65% | 79. 96% | 1. 31% | | | | | 乙烯法 | | 81. 49% | 81. 26% | -0. 23% | | | | | 华 ...
PVC:供需压力仍大 偏空对待
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-19 02:28
PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have declined, with mainstream market prices dropping by 10-40 yuan/ton. The futures market has also seen a downward trend, leading to a slight strengthening of the basis as traders adjust their prices accordingly [1] - Downstream purchasing activity has shown a slight improvement, with localized enhancements in spot transactions. Current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4770-4880 yuan/ton, South China at 4820-4890 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4650-4780 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4750-4830 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 78.84%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous week. The calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 79.21%, up by 1.38 percentage points, while the ethylene method's load rate is 77.92%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points [2] - As of August 14, the inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production at 5.4 days, down by 3.57% from the previous period. This reduction is attributed to sustained high pre-sale orders being shipped [2] PVC Market Outlook - The supply side is facing pressure from new capacity being released, with domestic trade remaining weak and spot transactions showing a lack of strength. Inventory pressure is expected to continue to rise, with no significant improvement in demand anticipated [3] - New capacities are expected to be released in August from companies such as Wanhua in Fujian and Tianjin Bohua, with Gansu Yaowang planning to start production in August and Qingdao Bay planning to start in September. This influx of new capacity adds further pressure to the PVC supply side [3] - Downstream production enterprises are operating at low rates, and purchasing enthusiasm remains weak, indicating that the industry is still in a seasonal downturn. Overall, the supply-demand pressure remains significant, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]
PVC:焦煤回落带动pvc回落 基本面暂无波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-15 02:04
Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market prices have decreased, with mainstream market prices dropping by 40-55 yuan/ton, influenced by the downward trend in futures [1] - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 77.75%, an increase of 4.49 percentage points compared to the previous week [2] - The inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production down by 3.45% to 5.6 days [2] Group 2 - New production capacities are being released, leading to increased supply pressure on PVC, while demand remains weak with downstream enterprises showing low operating rates [3] - The overall market is still in a low season, with no improvement in demand expected, and the industry faces significant supply-demand pressure [3] - The impact of coking coal disturbances on the cost side is affecting the PVC market, suggesting a short-term wait-and-see approach [3]
基础化工行业周报:“反内卷”政策持续发力,《价格法》修订规范市场价格秩序-20250729
Huaan Securities· 2025-07-29 06:52
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 4.03% in the week from July 21 to July 25, 2025, ranking 8th among all sectors, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points [4][22] - The report highlights a continued trend of differentiation in the chemical industry for 2025, recommending focus on sectors such as synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week was a 4.03% increase, ranking 8th among sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index by 2.76% [22] - The top three performing sub-sectors were construction materials (8.20%), coal (7.98%), and steel (7.67%) [22] 2. Key Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the upcoming implementation of quota policies for third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to enter a high prosperity cycle due to supply constraints and stable demand growth from markets like heat pumps and cold chains [5] - The electronic specialty gases market is highlighted as a critical area for domestic substitution opportunities, driven by rapid upgrades in the semiconductor industry and increasing demand for high-end electronic specialty gases [6][8] - The light hydrocarbon chemical trend is noted as a global shift, with a move towards lighter raw materials for olefin production, which is expected to enhance the valuation of leading companies in this sector [8] - The COC polymer industry is experiencing accelerated domestic industrialization, with significant potential for domestic companies to break through supply bottlenecks [9] - The potassium fertilizer market is anticipated to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation and increased prices [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand recovers, making it a resilient chemical product through economic cycles [12]
综合晨报:美欧达成贸易协议,马棕出口数据表现不佳-20250728
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 00:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.
PVC:宏观及政策面驱动反复波动 基本面暂无改善
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-24 02:23
PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market price has increased, with PVC futures showing an upward trend. However, traders are primarily engaging in fixed-price transactions, leading to a weakening of the basis for actual transactions [1] - The mainstream cash price for PVC in East China is between 5000-5120 RMB/ton, while in South China it ranges from 5000-5110 RMB/ton. Prices in Hebei are between 4730-4870 RMB/ton, and in Shandong, they range from 4880-4960 RMB/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating rate for PVC powder this week is 74.97%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The operating rate for calcium carbide-based PVC is 77.52%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points, while the ethylene-based PVC rate is 68.31%, down by 1.92 percentage points [2] - As of July 17, the inventory days for PVC production enterprises in China is 6.10 days, a decrease of 1.29%. This reduction is attributed to high pre-sales and accelerated deliveries to both domestic and international markets [2] PVC Market Outlook - The market sentiment has significantly declined, with prices showing little fluctuation. The current supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal decrease in demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement remains low, and export orders are generally weak, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory [3] - The macroeconomic environment has improved, causing a collective rebound in commodities. However, the short-term trading logic is more influenced by macro sentiment rather than the fundamentals of the PVC market, suggesting a cautious approach for the time being [3]
PVC:宏观气氛推升pvc盘面反弹 基本面暂无改善
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-11 02:09
PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have increased, with significant regional price differences observed. The PVC futures market has shown an upward trend after fluctuating within a range, while traders' basis quotes have weakened, leading to higher fixed price offers without price advantages for point pricing transactions. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm remains low, with most buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, resulting in a sluggish spot market transaction volume [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 75.07%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to the previous week. The operating load rate for calcium carbide method PVC powder is 76.93%, down 3.8%, while the ethylene method PVC powder load rate is 70.23%, up 4.77%. As of July 10, the social inventory of PVC has increased by 2.89% to 591,800 tons compared to the previous month, but has decreased by 7.66% year-on-year. The inventory in East China is 539,300 tons, and in South China is 52,600 tons [2] PVC Market Outlook - The spot market prices for PVC have stabilized, with prices pushed up by the atmosphere of the black commodities market. Currently, the supply-demand dynamics indicate a seasonal shift towards increased supply and reduced demand, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals. The demand for procurement during the off-season remains low, and foreign trade export orders are average, leading to a slight accumulation of inventory. A substantial increase in inventory may require a significant decline in exports. However, due to a recent improvement in the macroeconomic environment and a collective rebound in commodities, a sharp decline in prices is unlikely in the short term, with the PVC market showing a relatively strong performance. A wait-and-see approach is recommended for the time being [3]
国内外进入需求淡季 预计PVC将延续震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-02 06:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is showing strength, with the main contract trading at 4924.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.76% increase [1] - PVC powder exports have been a bright spot in demand, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 reaching 1.6985 million tons, a 56.07% increase compared to 1.0883 million tons during the same period last year [2] - As of the end of June, the domestic PVC downstream comprehensive operating rate is at 42.78%, down 3.37 percentage points from early June and down 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest point since mid-March 2025 [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight increase in domestic PVC maintenance this week, with a planned maintenance by Henan Yuhang, leading to a slight decrease in supply; however, overall supply remains high with significant new production plans expected in the future [3] - Demand continues to weaken as the domestic and international markets enter a demand off-season, with some domestic downstream operations affected by the rainy season [3] - The cost side is supported by reduced ethylene imports, while the situation in Inner Mongolia regarding electricity restrictions for calcium carbide needs to be monitored, which is expected to support PVC bottom prices [3] Group 3 - The operational strategy suggests a fluctuating market, with basic fundamentals still under pressure as the downstream enters the off-season; however, the gradual changes in basis and monthly spread are narrowing the space for arbitrage and hedging [4] - The ongoing delay of India's BIS certification is expected to contribute to the continued fluctuation of PVC prices [4]
PVC粉:过剩问题反复扰动 市场价格下跌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 01:11
Group 1 - The PVC market continues to decline due to falling crude oil prices and new production pressures, with expectations of weak performance in the coming week [1][3] - The price of PVC powder fluctuated downwards, with the average price from May 6 to May 7 in East China at 4630-4780 yuan/ton, which is lower than the previous week's forecast range [1][3] - The supply-demand situation remains weak, with limited support from maintenance and low downstream orders, leading to a cautious market sentiment [5][7] Group 2 - International crude oil prices dropped significantly on May 5, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling by up to 5%, impacting the PVC market negatively [4] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in maintenance loss, but overall supply remains ample, and downstream demand is weak, with companies primarily focused on depleting existing raw material inventories [5][7] - Cost factors indicate that while calcium carbide prices have slightly increased, the overall cost structure for PVC powder remains stable, with limited upward pressure on costs [6][8]