交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为80.22%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量35.556万吨，环比增加2.83%,乙烯法企业产 量13.331万吨，环比减少1.00%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.61%，环比增加.420个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.09%，环比减少0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.8%，环比减少1.40个百 每日观点 1、基本面: 偏空。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises and ethylene - based enterprises decreased, but the expected maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - The downstream demand is currently weak. The overall downstream start - up rate is lower than the historical average level, and although some downstream sectors have increased their start - up rates, they are still below the historical average, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above the historical average [8]. - The cost situation is mixed. The loss of calcium carbide - based profit decreased, while the loss of ethylene - based profit increased. The double - ton spread profit increased, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene - based enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Next week, the expected maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different changes, but overall, the current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost**: The calcium carbide - based profit was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The ethylene - based profit was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,728.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Expectation**: The calcium carbide - based cost is strengthening, the ethylene - based cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, start - up rate, profit, and cost data of different PVC varieties and contracts, showing the changes in the PVC market [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: It shows the historical data of the base price of PVC, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17]. - **Price and Volume Analysis**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, helping to understand the market activity and price trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical data of the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is helpful for analyzing the price relationship between different contracts [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - based Raw Materials**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, which affect the cost and production of calcium carbide - based PVC [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, reflecting the supply situation of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rate data of PVC, reflecting the demand situation of PVC. It also includes the data of real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment, which are related to the demand for PVC [44][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data of PVC, reflecting the inventory situation of PVC [57]. - **Ethylene - based Situation**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride, reflecting the situation of ethylene - based PVC [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, reflecting the supply - demand balance situation of PVC [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [13] - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4921 - 4989. [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are neutral. In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. The downstream overall start - up rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, and the ethylene method profit was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, both lower than the historical average. [7] - **Basis**: On July 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 25 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [10] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral. [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish. [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream start - up rates, profits, and costs, and their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [17][18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the futures price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC in June - July 2025, including indicators such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts of PVC from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025. [26][27][29][30][31][32][34][35][37][38] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC from 2018 to 2025. [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC from 2018 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data related to PVC demand. [44][45][47][49][54][55][58] - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 to 2025. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import. [64][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The current demand is close to the historical average level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4911 - 4987. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, with positive factors including supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages, while negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consumption inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply side**: In March 2025, the PVC output was 2.069132 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.25%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 332,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 126,620 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 48.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.069 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 39.9%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 49.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.620 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 69.44%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 74.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is advantageous. The current demand is close to the historical average [8]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 533 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 4.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 584 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 3.10% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2222.95 yuan/ton, with the profit unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average, and the scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. - **Other aspects**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions; on April 29, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4860 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 89 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the factory inventory was 420,201 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.18%, the calcium carbide method factory inventory was 327,641 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%, the ethylene method factory inventory was 92,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.48%, the social inventory was 420,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.71%, and the inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 7.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%; MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [8][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview data, including the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, start - up rates, and profits [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the base price, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [17][18]. - **Price and trading volume trends**: It shows the price trends (including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price) and trading volume trends of the main PVC futures contract from March to April 2025, as well as the trends of the positions of the top 5/20 seats [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: It presents the historical trends of the spreads of the main PVC futures contracts from 2024 to 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: It includes the price trends of semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., as well as their cost - profit situations, start - up rates, output, and inventory situations [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply situation**: It shows the historical trends of the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly outputs, and maintenance volumes [38][40]. - **Demand situation**: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream start - up rates (including profiles, pipes, films, paste resin, etc.), and the profit, output, cost, and apparent consumption of paste resin. It also presents the real - estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, and some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [42][48][54][57]. - **Inventory situation**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [58][59]. - **Ethylene method - related aspects**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price spreads of the ethylene method FOB (Tianjin - Taiwan) and vinyl chloride import (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [60][61]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from 2024 to 2025, including exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, output, and imports [63][64].