1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises and ethylene - based enterprises decreased, but the expected maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - The downstream demand is currently weak. The overall downstream start - up rate is lower than the historical average level, and although some downstream sectors have increased their start - up rates, they are still below the historical average, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above the historical average [8]. - The cost situation is mixed. The loss of calcium carbide - based profit decreased, while the loss of ethylene - based profit increased. The double - ton spread profit increased, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene - based enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Next week, the expected maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different changes, but overall, the current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost**: The calcium carbide - based profit was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The ethylene - based profit was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,728.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish trend [9]. - **Expectation**: The calcium carbide - based cost is strengthening, the ethylene - based cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, start - up rate, profit, and cost data of different PVC varieties and contracts, showing the changes in the PVC market [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: It shows the historical data of the base price of PVC, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17]. - **Price and Volume Analysis**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, helping to understand the market activity and price trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical data of the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is helpful for analyzing the price relationship between different contracts [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide - based Raw Materials**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, which affect the cost and production of calcium carbide - based PVC [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, reflecting the supply situation of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trend**: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rate data of PVC, reflecting the demand situation of PVC. It also includes the data of real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment, which are related to the demand for PVC [44][53][56]. - **Inventory Situation**: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data of PVC, reflecting the inventory situation of PVC [57]. - **Ethylene - based Situation**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride, reflecting the situation of ethylene - based PVC [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, reflecting the supply - demand balance situation of PVC [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [13] - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4921 - 4989. [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are neutral. In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. The downstream overall start - up rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, and the ethylene method profit was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, both lower than the historical average. [7] - **Basis**: On July 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 25 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [10] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral. [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish. [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream start - up rates, profits, and costs, and their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [17][18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the futures price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC in June - July 2025, including indicators such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts of PVC from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025. [26][27][29][30][31][32][34][35][37][38] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC from 2018 to 2025. [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC from 2018 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data related to PVC demand. [44][45][47][49][54][55][58] - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 to 2025. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import. [64][65]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年3月PVC产量为206.9132万吨，环比增加10.25%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.63%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.278万吨，环比减少0.88%,乙烯法 企业产量12.662万吨，环比增加9.04%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产 少量增加。 PVC期货早报 2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.16%，环比增加.069个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为39.9%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为49.06%，环比增加.620个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...