交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年8月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.61%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量32.8255万吨，环比减少3.94%,乙烯法企业产 量13.656万吨，环比减少2.04%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产增加幅度 可观。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.7%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为37.65%，环比增加.740个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.61%，环比增加.649个 百分点，低于历史平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. [13] - The PVC2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4921 - 4989. [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are neutral. In June 2025, PVC production was 1.99134 million tons, a 1.40% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,190 tons, a 1.92% month - on - month decrease, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 114,390 tons, a 3.62% month - on - month increase. The downstream overall start - up rate was 41.11%, a 1.77 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The calcium carbide method profit was - 445.08 yuan/ton, with a 19.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, and the ethylene method profit was - 620.57 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, both lower than the historical average. [7] - **Basis**: On July 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 25 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral. [10] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 381,590 tons, a 1.21% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 296,790 tons, a 1.61% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,800 tons, a 0.22% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 392,700 tons, a 5.25% month - on - month increase. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 6.18 days, a 0.32% month - on - month decrease. It is neutral. [10] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish. [10] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including various indicators such as enterprise prices, monthly spreads, inventory, downstream start - up rates, profits, and costs, and their changes compared with the previous values. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025. [17][18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: It presents the futures price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC in June - July 2025, including indicators such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats. [20][21] - **Spread Analysis**: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts of PVC from 2024 to 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method from 2016 to 2025. [26][27][29][30][31][32][34][35][37][38] - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method of PVC from 2018 to 2025. [39][40][42] - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of various downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) of PVC from 2018 to 2025. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data related to PVC demand. [44][45][47][49][54][55][58] - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC from 2019 to 2025. [59][60] - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride from 2018 to 2025. [61][62] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from May 2024 to June 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import. [64][65]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年3月PVC产量为206.9132万吨，环比增加10.25%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.63%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.278万吨，环比减少0.88%,乙烯法 企业产量12.662万吨，环比增加9.04%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产 少量增加。 PVC期货早报 2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.16%，环比增加.069个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为39.9%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为49.06%，环比增加.620个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...