Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively fulfilling its commitments under the Minamata Convention on Mercury, emphasizing the need for the PVC industry, particularly the acetylene method, to undergo transformation and upgrade due to environmental pressures and supply-demand imbalances [1][2][3] Group 1: Environmental Pressure - The Minamata Convention, effective since August 16, 2017, aims to control and reduce mercury emissions, with the acetylene method for PVC production using mercury chloride as a catalyst, accounting for approximately 60% of national mercury usage [1] - The deadline for the complete ban on primary mercury mining is approaching in 2032, posing a risk of forced exit for acetylene method PVC companies that fail to upgrade to mercury-free technologies [1] - The acetylene method is characterized by high energy consumption, requiring 8,500 kWh of electricity to produce one ton of PVC, and has been listed in the "High Pollution Process Elimination Directory" by the National Development and Reform Commission, mandating a 50% capacity replacement by 2027 [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The PVC industry has been facing low profit margins due to supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by the bundling of caustic soda profits, leading to high PVC inventory levels, which increased by 24.48% year-on-year as of October 2025 [2] - The real estate market's deep adjustments have significantly impacted demand, resulting in low PVC prices, while acetylene method producers have been suffering losses due to low calcium carbide prices [2] - New PVC production capacity is expected to add 2.5 to 3.5 million tons in 2023, bringing total domestic capacity to around 30 million tons, further worsening the supply-demand imbalance [2] Group 3: Industry Restructuring - The PVC industry is experiencing a squeeze effect, with the ethylene method gradually capturing market share from the acetylene method, which has historically dominated with 70-80% of total capacity [3] - The cost structure of the ethylene method is more favorable in the current low international oil price environment, leading to a significant increase in new capacity for this method, which is expected to account for over 70% of new capacity in 2023 [3] - By 2030, the ethylene method's capacity share is projected to rise to around 40%, intensifying competition for acetylene method PVC producers [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the urgent need for the calcium carbide method PVC industry to undergo transformation and upgrade due to environmental pressures and supply-demand imbalances [1][2][3] Group 2 - The Minamata Convention on Mercury, effective since August 16, 2017, aims to control and reduce mercury emissions, with the calcium carbide method PVC industry being a key area of focus [1] - The calcium carbide method uses mercury chloride as a catalyst, accounting for approximately 60% of the total mercury consumption in the country, facing mandatory upgrades to avoid forced exit as the 2032 deadline for banning native mercury mining approaches [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has listed the calcium carbide method PVC in the "High Pollution Process Elimination Directory," requiring a 50% capacity replacement by 2027 [1] - PVC industry has been suffering from low profits due to supply-demand imbalances, with domestic PVC social inventory increasing by 24.48% year-on-year as of October 2025 [2] - The real estate market's deep adjustment has led to significant supply-demand imbalances, causing PVC prices to remain low [2] - New PVC production capacity is expected to reach 2.5 to 3.5 million tons this year, bringing total domestic PVC capacity to around 30 million tons, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] - The market is experiencing a squeezing effect, with the ethylene method gradually taking market share from the calcium carbide method, which has historically dominated the PVC industry [3] - Ethylene method PVC production is expected to account for about 40% of total capacity by 2030, driven by cost advantages and environmental pressures [3] - The combination of environmental regulations, supply-demand imbalances, and competitive pressures will accelerate the elimination of inefficient capacities in the calcium carbide method PVC industry, pushing towards a more environmentally friendly and ethylene-based production structure [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the PVC industry, particularly the calcium carbide method, faces significant challenges due to environmental regulations and supply-demand imbalances, necessitating urgent transformation and upgrades [1][2][3] Group 2 - The environmental pressure is driving a green transition, as the Minamata Convention aims to control mercury emissions, with the calcium carbide method using mercury catalysts accounting for approximately 60% of national mercury consumption [1] - The deadline for the complete ban on primary mercury mining is approaching in 2032, putting pressure on calcium carbide PVC companies to upgrade to mercury-free technologies or face mandatory exit [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission has included the calcium carbide PVC process in the "High Pollution Process Elimination Directory," requiring a 50% capacity replacement by 2027 [1] Group 3 - The PVC industry is experiencing intensified market competition due to supply-demand imbalances, with domestic PVC social inventory increasing by 24.48% year-on-year as of October 2025 [2] - The real estate market's downturn has led to significant supply-demand imbalances, resulting in low PVC prices, while calcium carbide PVC companies are suffering losses due to low calcium carbide prices [2] - Planned new capacity additions of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons in 2023 will raise total domestic PVC capacity to around 30 million tons, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2] Group 4 - The market is undergoing a squeezing effect, with the ethylene method gradually capturing market share from the calcium carbide method, which has historically dominated the PVC industry [3] - Ethylene method PVC production is expected to account for about 40% of total capacity by 2030, driven by cost advantages in the current low international oil price environment [3] - The combination of environmental pressures and competitive dynamics is accelerating the exit of inefficient and outdated capacities in the calcium carbide PVC sector, pushing the industry towards more environmentally friendly processes [3]