Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall plastics supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the upward space for plastics in the near term is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's LDPE and other maintenance devices on December 31 increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders declining, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level, and the cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will further decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract showed a position - reducing and oscillating operation, closing at 6472 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased by 11,359 lots to 501,425 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film gradually exited the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons compared to the previous day, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4].

上市企业：恒逸石化（000703）,荣盛石化（002493）,上海石化（600688）,中国石化（600028）,中国石 油（601857）,华锦股份（000059）,桐昆股份（601233）,恒力石化（600346）,卫星化学（002648）,ST 鸿达（002002） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国初级形态的塑料产量为1274万吨，同比增长9.4%；2025年1- 10月中国初级形态的塑料累计产量为12226.3万吨，累计增长11.2%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 2020-2025年1-10月中国初级形态的塑料产量统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国塑料制品行业市场现状分析及未来前景规划报告》 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年12月22日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.07个百分点至78.36%，PVC开工率继续减少， 处于近年同期中性偏高水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.5个百分点，下游制品订单不佳。出口方面，PVC 以价换量，上周出口签单小幅增加，但印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限，关注台湾台塑1月份报价。上周社会库存 略有减少，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣 工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比 继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的 嘉兴嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪下，焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场情 ...

低密度聚乙烯因其柔软的质地和高弹性，使其在薄膜制品领域占据主导地位，生产出的保鲜膜、农用薄 膜等产品，不仅柔韧性佳，还具备良好的防潮、防氧化性能；而优异的透明性，让其成为食品包装、化 妆品包装的理想选择，既能清晰展示产品，又能有效保护内容物。据统计，截至2024年我国低密度聚乙 烯产量为369.03万吨，表观需求量为610.34万吨。 近年来，我国低密度聚乙烯的生产能力和产量稳步发展，但仍产不足需，加上产品同质化现象较为严 重，高档产品无法满足国内实际生产需求，故每年还得大量进口。据统计，截至2024年我国低密度聚乙 烯进口量为295.62万吨，同比下降4.04%，进口均价为8388.81元/吨，同比增长0.94%；2024年出口量为 24.31万吨，同比增长2.82%，出口均价为10749.62元/吨，同比下降5.26%。 从我国低密度聚乙烯进口来源国进口量分布来看，2024年我国共从56个国家和地区进口低密度聚乙烯， 其中进口量排前六的分别是伊朗、阿联酋、美国、沙特阿拉伯、韩国与卡塔尔，前六地区进口量合计占 比77.83%，其他地区进口量占比22.17%。 市场规模来看，2021-2023年我国低密度聚乙 ...

截至发稿，胜利股份市值为41亿元。 每经AI快讯，胜利股份（SZ 000407，收盘价：4.68元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，公司十一届九次董 事会临时会议于2025年12月12日以通讯表决方式召开。经表决，会议审议并全票通过了《关于召开公司 2025年第二次临时股东会的决定》。 2025年1至6月份，胜利股份的营业收入构成为：天然气及增值业务占比76.33%，其他塑料制造业占比 23.67%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——专访管涛：美国政府经济贸易政策正逐渐动摇美元本位国际货币体系，利 多因素下人民币汇率有可能破7 （记者 王瀚黎） ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The PVC market is expected to be weak and volatile in the near term. Although the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC and the government's action to study price - related standards provide some support, factors such as the decline in PVC开工率, high inventory, low demand in the traditional off - season, and falling prices of related commodities like coking coal suppress the market [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. PVC开工率 decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. Downstream开工率 also declined slightly, and orders for downstream products are poor [1]. - India's cancellation of the BIS policy on PVC eases concerns about Chinese exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, after Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China lowered its December quotes by $30 - 60 per ton, export orders declined [1]. - Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. From January to October 2025, the real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas [1]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into operation. But the开工 rate of some production enterprises is expected to decline, and the decline in production is limited [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a low of 4,273 yuan/ton, a high of 4,340 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 4,276 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.59%. The position volume decreased by 50,472 lots to 831,217 lots [2]. [基差方面] - On December 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,305 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,276 yuan/ton. The current basis is 29 yuan/ton, strengthening by 37 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a neutral level [3]. [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: The operation of some devices such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu has declined. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities from several companies have been put into operation or are in the process of production [4]. - **Demand**: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, there were significant year - on - year declines in real estate investment, sales, new construction, and completion. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% month - on - month, at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 4, PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% month - on - month to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and remains high [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued an inquiry letter regarding Foshan Fospower Technology Group Co., Ltd.'s acquisition of 100% equity in Jinli Co., focusing on the valuation of intangible assets and the reasonableness of the predicted gross margin growth [1][2] Group 1: Asset Valuation - The inquiry highlights that the overall valuation increase of intangible assets is 328 million yuan, representing a 210% increase [1] - The assessment agency, Zhonglian International, attributes the increase in land use rights to rising regional land prices, with the assessed value of 16 land use rights totaling 4.437 billion yuan, up from a book value of 3.072 billion yuan, resulting in an overall increase rate of 44.41% [1] - The increase in intangible assets, particularly patent rights, is valued at 2.582 billion yuan, based on a technology sharing rate of 1.87% and a discount rate of 16.14%, which aligns with industry benchmarks [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecast - The target company's projected main business revenue is expected to reach 4.052 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 5.286 billion yuan by 2029, with gross margin rising from 24.27% to 31.54% [2] - The inquiry questions the forecast's divergence from the declining gross margin trend during the reporting period, but the assessment agency responds that the company has already turned a profit in the first half of 2025, achieving a gross margin of 29.91%, which is higher than the forecast [2] - Future gross margin recovery is supported by an increase in the sales proportion of ultra-thin high-strength diaphragms and reduced costs due to domestic sourcing of raw materials [2]

这不仅是经济账，更是政治账。在高市早苗政府频频在涉台问题上踩红线、甚至在与那国岛部署导弹的敏感时刻，这个69%的税率就像是一封发给日本右翼 势力的"警告信"。它暗示着：如果日本企业继续充当右翼政客的金主或帮凶，中国有的是手段让它们在最大的海外市场上付出代价。 11月30日，中国商务部的一份第77号公告，在看似平静的周末投下了一枚深水炸弹。 公告宣布，对原产于美国、日本、韩国和马来西亚的进口聚苯硫醚（PPS）发起期终复审调查，并继续征收反倾销税。乍看之下，这是一次常规的贸易救济 措施延续，但细究那组令人咋舌的税率数字，你会发现这更像是一次精心设计的"擒贼先擒王"式战略敲打。 最引人注目的，是对美国企业开出的天价税率——最高达220.9%。 聚苯硫醚并非普通塑料，它是广泛应用于航空航天、电子、汽车等高端制造领域的特种材料。中国对美企征收如此高额的反倾销税，逻辑很清晰：既然美国 在高科技领域搞封锁、筑高墙，那么中国就在关键原材料的市场上进行对等反制。这既是对美国倾销行为的惩罚，更是对美方"小院高墙"策略的一次精准回 击——你想卡我脖子，我就让你在中国的市场份额归零。 对日本企业的处理则更为微妙。虽然整体税率在25. ...

Group 1 - The company, Victory Co., Ltd. (SZ 000407), announced a temporary board meeting held on November 28, 2025, to review the proposal for adjusting expected daily related transactions [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was 76.33% from natural gas and value-added services, and 23.67% from other plastic manufacturing [1] - As of the report, the market capitalization of Victory Co., Ltd. is 4.4 billion yuan [1]

本案调查系应摩洛哥本土PVC龙头企业SNEP的请求而启动。工业与贸易部在为期一年的调查中，对埃 及出口价格、本国市场销售价格及相关成本数据进行了比对分析，认定存在明显倾销行为，并确认进口 激增、价格大幅压低削弱了摩洛哥生产商的市场份额与盈利能力，构成法律意义上的"重大损害"，且二 者之间存在明确因果关系。 摩洛哥360信息网11月27日报道，摩洛哥工业与贸易部宣布，自11月25日起，对原产于埃及的聚氯乙烯 （PVC）产品正式征收反倾销税。这一决定源自2024年11月启动的一项贸易救济调查。调查结果确认， 埃及PVC以倾销价格进入摩洛哥市场，对本国相关产业造成了实质性损害。 根据最终裁定，埃及生产商和出口商将适用差别税率：埃及石化公司（EPC）税率为74.87%，其他埃及 生产商和出口商税率为92.19%。上述税率以从价税形式适用于自埃及进口、以悬浮聚合法生产的PVC 树脂产品，与此前实施的临时反倾销措施水平基本一致。 随着调查正式结案，相关措施被转为最终性关税，预计将执行数年，以巩固本国PVC产业链的稳定和投 资预期。此举也再次显示，摩洛哥正日益主动运用反倾销、保障措施等贸易保护工具，维护关键工业部 门的竞争 ...