Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report From May 6th to May 9th, the PVC futures price hit a new low for the year. In May, the PVC industry faces pressure from a decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of new devices. The supply side is unlikely to see significant positive factors, while the demand side is significantly affected by the real estate sector, with weak domestic orders and uncertain exports. The macro - policy stimulus is limited. Overall, PVC lacks a clear upward driving force and is expected to operate at the bottom [2][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review From May 6th to May 9th, the PVC futures price hit a new low for the year. The price center of V2509 gradually declined from 4,950 yuan/ton to around 4,800 yuan/ton. As of the close on May 9th, V2509 closed at 4,805 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.54%. The weekly trading volume was 2.93 million lots, a net increase of 0.99 million lots compared to the previous period, and the open interest was 1.08 million lots, a net increase of 0.19 million lots. In the spot market, prices continued to decline, and trading remained cautious and the atmosphere was light. As of May 9th, the price of SG - 5 PVC in East China was 4,680 yuan/ton, a 2.09% decrease compared to before the Labor Day holiday [2][5]. 2. Supply Aspect As of May 9th, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 80.34%, a 1.01 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. The weekly output was 467,300 tons, a 0.96% increase compared to the previous period. New PVC devices with a total annual production capacity of 1.7 million tons are planned to be commissioned from May to July [6][8]. 3. Demand Aspect - **Order Receiving of PVC Producers Weakened**: As of May 9th, the weekly pre - sale order volume of PVC producers was 520,800 tons, a 10.79% decrease compared to the previous week [12]. - **Post - holiday Operating Rate of Downstream Products Rebounded**: As of May 9th, the comprehensive operating rate of PVC downstream factories was 45.99%, a 2.05 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous week. However, downstream orders were poor, and procurement was mainly for rigid demand [17]. - **Uncertainty in Future PVC Exports**: Affected by India's anti - dumping policy on imported PVC, future Chinese PVC exports are uncertain. Attention should also be paid to the possibility of the extension of India's BIS policy at the end of June [18]. - **Stabilization of Commercial Housing Sales**: In the week of May 11th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6141 million square meters, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous period. The real estate sales market shows signs of stabilizing [20]. 4. Cost Aspect - **Stable Calcium Carbide Price**: As of May 9th, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 2,550 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. Due to power cost and maintenance factors, the supply is unstable, which is conducive to price stability [24]. - **Weakening Ethylene Price**: As of May 9th, the Northeast Asian ethylene price was 781 US dollars/ton, a 1.26% decrease compared to the previous week. Overseas ethylene producers maintain high - load operation, the market supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [25]. 5. Inventory Aspect As of May 9th, the weekly social inventory of domestic PVC was 409,800 tons, a 1.54% increase compared to the previous period, mainly due to the decrease in the post - holiday procurement willingness of the mid - and downstream [28]. 6. Spread Aspect - **Strengthening of PVC Basis**: The basis between the near - term spot and the V2509 contract was in the range of [- 170, - 100] [39]. - **Slight Rebound of the 9 - 1 Spread**: As of May 9th, the PVC 9 - 1 spread was - 109 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan increase compared to before the Labor Day holiday [40]. 7. Conclusion In May, the PVC industry faces pressure from a decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of new devices. The supply side is unlikely to see significant positive factors, while the demand side is significantly affected by the real estate sector, with weak domestic orders and uncertain exports. The macro - policy stimulus is limited. Overall, PVC lacks a clear upward driving force and is expected to operate at the bottom [44].