VC去库难度偏高，高库存压力或持续。成本端电石、乙烯价格支撑有限。短期V2601预计偏弱震荡，区间 预计在4490-4620附近。 免责声明 PVC产业日报 2025-11-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4520 | -81 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 904897 | 104133 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1462731 | 107190 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1060264 | 63708 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1318874 | 98864 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -258610 | -35156 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4610 | -10 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4531.92 | -16.54 | | | 华南:PVC: ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the PVC market has significant domestic supply - demand contradictions. With high inventory pressure likely to persist, short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4500 - 4630 yuan/ton. The decrease in raw material prices has led to a decline in production costs, but due to weak spot prices, losses in both calcium carbide and ethylene methods have deepened. As the temperature drops, downstream demand in infrastructure and real estate is expected to weaken seasonally, and overseas demand remains uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; trading volume was 800,764 lots, a decrease of 175,156 lots; open interest was 1,355,541 lots, an increase of 7,172 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 219,361 lots, an increase of 8,824 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4620 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4548.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.62 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the ethylene - based PVC price was 4692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the calcium carbide - based PVC price was 4606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.38 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2681.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it was 2494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 416.993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.06%, an increase of 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared to the previous period. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96% [3]. - As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared to the previous week. The average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC decreased to 5239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on price increases and anti-involution products [1][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector saw a 2.61% increase in the second week of November, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79 percentage points [2][13]. - Key recommended companies include those benefiting from rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and leading firms in the anti-involution trend [5]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio is 25.60, significantly above the average PE of 13.41 since 2015 [2][13]. - Among 27 sub-industries, five showed declines, with the top gainers being acrylic fiber (+15.18%) and nitrogen fertilizer (+9.19%) [3][18]. Price and Spread Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include liquid chlorine (+22.93%) and monochloromethane (+19.44%) [4][23]. - The largest price spread increases were seen in organic silicon DMC (+58.87%) and propylene (propane-based) (+45.69%) [4][44]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester chips increasing by 8.93% and acetic acid by 6.69% [5][64]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Duofu Duo and Shenzhen New Star, which benefit from the high demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, and Yun Tianhua, which is poised to gain from the strong phosphate chemical market [5].

消息面 上周齐鲁石化（600002）36万吨重启，LG化学40万吨、河南联创40万吨装置检修，PVC产能利用率环 比下降。管材开工率小幅回升，型材开工率持续下降，PVC下游开工率窄幅下降。 机构观点 11月17日杭州PVC市场现货弱势企稳，盘中成交价格震荡走低，电石法五型在4470-4600元/吨，三联 4480-4510元/吨，宜化/天湖/中泰/金泰4500-4550元/吨，北元/天业4550-4600元/吨左右，八/三型4610- 4620元/吨左右。 本周PVC社会库存样本统计环比减少1.27%至102.83万吨，同比增加23.76%。 综合来看，随着天津渤化40万、浙江嘉化30万等新装置量产，新增产能供应压力仍存。四季度下游开工 率不高，需求改善有限，近期开工下滑且社会库存小幅去化，供需有所改善。随着烧碱走弱从氯碱一体 化效益角度考虑PVC估值偏低，近期印度取消BIS认证及低估值下成本有所提振，但受制于高库存和弱 需求，PVC价格上行驱动不足，预计期价震荡偏强，2601合约运行区间4500-4900。 国投安信期货： 印度BIS认证取消，略超市场预期，但整体影响不大，后续关注印度反倾销政策是否会落地。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PVC is prone to decline but has limited downside space in the short term, with support at the 4600 price level. The v2601 contract is the focus. The supply and demand of PVC continue to weaken, with high production, weak domestic and export demand, and high social inventory. However, the current cost support is strengthening, and the profit compression is obvious, which restricts the downward space [3]. - Different market participants are given corresponding operation suggestions, such as traders and terminal customers with inventory are recommended to do short - futures hedging, and those in need of procurement are recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options to prevent price increases [3]. - Attention should be paid to data such as the PVC powder overall operating load rate on November 7, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China, the PVC weekly operating rate on November 14, and the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China on November 14 [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: As of October 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity in the year was 1.9 million tons, and the withdrawn capacity was 200,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6.08%. It is estimated that the total new capacity in 2025 will be 2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.15%. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.28%, a 2.19% increase from last week, and the annual cumulative output is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 4.04% [9]. - **Demand**: The downstream operation of hard products has improved, and most of the time, they purchase on demand, only increasing the replenishment volume appropriately at low prices and resisting high - price raw materials. The operation of soft product films is okay. The suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods by the United States for another year is beneficial to glove exports to some extent. The trading pick - up enthusiasm is average, and most maintain normal procurement [7]. - **Cost**: The increase in coal prices intensifies the loss pressure of semi - coke manufacturers, driving up the semi - coke price and strengthening the cost support for calcium carbide. The ex - factory price of calcium carbide may remain stable, and there is a possibility of an increase if the short - term cost pressure continues to increase, but the increase is restricted by the weak PVC market [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises have sufficient supply, while the demand is weak, and the export market lacks substantial support. Some chlor - alkali enterprises still face shipment pressure, and the price may remain weak. Some high - concentration liquid alkalis may stabilize their prices under the support of inventory and orders [8]. 2. Disk Data - **Price Trend**: This week, the PVC price fluctuated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was mainly rigid, and the export had no bright performance. The social inventory remained at the highest level in the same period of history. The price trend was weak, but it was supported by cost to some extent. The upward movement of coal brought stronger cost support, and the weakness of caustic soda price weakened the "subsidy of alkali for chlorine", resulting in the comprehensive profit of northwest integrated enterprises approaching the break - even point [17]. - **Data Performance**: The basis was at a discount to the disk. The East China 01 basis strengthened to around - 130 this week; the 1 - 5 spread was weakly running at - 304. The position of the 01 contract was around 1.3389 million lots, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to around 121,500 lots (exceeding the level of the same period last year) [18]. 3. Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The East - South China calcium carbide method spread fluctuated around - 139, and the East - North China calcium carbide method spread strengthened to 21. The ethylene - calcium carbide price spread narrowed to around 219 [29]. 4. Profit Performance - Different production processes have different profit situations. For the calcium carbide method, the comprehensive profit of northwest integrated chlor - alkali enterprises was - 345 yuan/ton; for the ethylene method, the comprehensive profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene externally in East China was 766 yuan/ton [41]. 5. Raw Material Situation - **Semi - coke**: The operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises on November 7 was 64.5%, remaining the same as the previous period. Some semi - coke plants in Shaanxi have plans to resume production, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to intensified losses. The semi - coke price may still have the possibility of stabilizing and improving under cost support [65]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The ex - factory price of calcium carbide may remain stable, and there is a possibility of an increase if the cost pressure continues to increase, but the increase is restricted by the weak PVC market. The average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry increased slightly to 75.23% this week, a 0.22% increase from last week [73][77]. - **Caustic Soda**: The liquid caustic soda market continued to operate weakly this week. The 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda locally decreased by 10 - 200 yuan/ton. The weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda samples was 84.8%, a 0.5% increase from last week, and the weekly inventory was 414,800 tons, a 6.28% decrease from last week. In the future, the price may remain weak, and some high - concentration liquid alkalis may stabilize their prices [86]. 6. Supply - **Capacity Expansion**: As of October 2025, the newly put - into - operation capacity in the year was 1.9 million tons, and the withdrawn capacity was 200,000 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 6.08%. It is estimated that the total new capacity in 2025 will be 2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.15% [92][93]. - **Operation and Maintenance**: The overall operating load rate of PVC powder this week was 79.28%, a 2.1% increase from last week. The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week was 53,490 tons, a 17,310 - ton decrease from last week. It is expected that the maintenance loss next week will increase slightly compared with this week [94][95]. 7. Import and Export - **Import**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,100 tons, and the cumulative import from January to September was 175,600 tons. The monthly import increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year increase was 0.76%. The imports mainly came from the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence was about 1% [129]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC export volume was 346,400 tons, and the cumulative export from January to September was 2.9216 million tons. The monthly export increased by 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.63%. The main destinations were still India, followed by Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [129]. - **Export Outlook**: This week, the sample export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 3.58% compared with last week and increased by 6.58% year - on - year. The volume to be delivered decreased by 8.76% compared with last week. It is estimated that the export will slow down in the fourth quarter, but the slowdown amplitude is limited, mainly due to India's anti - dumping tax policy and BIS certification [139]. 8. Demand - **Downstream Operating Load**: The downstream operation of hard products has improved, and most of the time, they purchase on demand, only increasing the replenishment volume appropriately at low prices and resisting high - price raw materials. The operation of soft product films is okay. The suspension of the 24% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods by the United States for another year is beneficial to glove exports to some extent [153]. - **Terminal Situation**: From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, completion area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [172][174]. 9. Inventory - The inventory of PVC sample production enterprises' salable products increased this week, with an increase of 57,500 tons compared with the previous period. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased by 2,500 tons compared with the previous period. The total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China increased. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 520,700 tons, a 0.04% increase from the previous period and an 18.15% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 942,900 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period and a 19.55% increase year - on - year [188].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PVC, this week's production increased slightly, with some previously shut - down plants resuming production. Next week, production is expected to increase slightly. Export orders increased slightly this week. Domestic demand is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. The overall profit of the upstream continues to deteriorate, and the mid - stream mainly focuses on arbitrage operations. Suggested strategies include paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities, short - term bearish allocation after rebounds, and reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread [6][10]. - For caustic soda, this week's production increased slightly due to the resumption of many shut - down plants, and production is expected to remain high next week. The national inventory decreased slightly this week and is expected to increase next week. The profit of caustic soda plants with external sales of liquid chlorine has worsened, and the comprehensive profit of enterprises with supporting PVC has continued to decline. Suggested strategies include reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 spread [106][109][110]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production this week was 49.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 million tons. The export volume remained at 5.75 million tons per week on average. The apparent demand was 45.19 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The total inventory decreased by 0.23 million tons. Some related product prices changed, such as a 70 - yuan increase in the price of Shaanxi semi - coke and a 50 - yuan decrease in the price of Wuhai calcium carbide [6][7]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuated weakly, with the East China calcium carbide method basis changing from - 81 to - 70. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated weakly, changing from - 292 to - 303 [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of the upstream continued to deteriorate. For example, the calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi decreased from - 454 to - 510 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 359 to - 470 yuan/ton. The export profit improved slightly, with the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 821 to 897 yuan/ton [9]. 3.1.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to reach 49.95 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 42.72 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase slightly [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production this week was 83.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons. The export volume remained at 6.52 million tons per week on average. The apparent demand was 78.25 million tons. The national inventory decreased by 1.22 million tons (in terms of 100% caustic soda). The price of Shandong liquid chlorine decreased significantly, from 250 to 1 yuan/ton [106][107]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of 32% caustic soda weakened, with the 01 - contract basis changing from 34 to 32. The 1 - 5 spread was recommended for reverse arbitrage, and the spread changed from - 173 to - 169 [109]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The profit of caustic soda plants with external sales of liquid chlorine worsened, and the comprehensive profit of enterprises with supporting PVC continued to decline. For example, the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased from - 359 to - 470 yuan/ton [109]. 3.2.4 Market Expectation - Next week, caustic soda production is expected to be 85.76 million tons, and the apparent demand is expected to be 77.53 million tons. The inventory is expected to increase [106].

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised mandatory national standard "Safety Technical Specification for Calcium Carbide Production" (GB 32375-2025) aims to enhance safety risk management in the calcium carbide production industry, effective from September 1, 2026, replacing the previous standard [1] Group 1: Changes in Standards - The nature of the standard has shifted from recommended to mandatory, with all technical content being compulsory [1] - The scope of application has expanded to cover production, storage, abnormal condition handling, and emergency response for all calcium carbide production enterprises [1] Group 2: Safety Management Enhancements - New basic requirements have been introduced for safety management, plant site selection, building structures, pipelines and equipment, electrical instruments, and intelligent management [2] - Specific safety management measures include maintaining operational records for electrode paste height, scheduled maintenance for gas cabinets, and mandatory use of portable detection alarms in carbon monoxide leak risk areas [2] Group 3: Intelligent Monitoring and Automation - The specification mandates the use of robotic systems for calcium carbide discharge and the implementation of personnel positioning systems [2] - Key equipment must have operational status monitoring and fault warning capabilities, with automated detection for electrode immersion length during normal operations [2] Group 4: Operational Requirements for Calcium Carbide Furnaces - The oxygen content in furnace gas must be less than 1% during operation, with specific interlock conditions for high-temperature alarms and cooling water interruptions [3] - New requirements for hydrogen content alarms and pressure monitoring in the furnace gas have been established, with interlock systems for various hazardous conditions [3] Group 5: Storage and Emergency Procedures - New calcium carbide construction projects must not use wet gas cabinets and must include safety instrumentation [3] - The specification outlines monitoring and protective measures for storage, as well as detailed emergency response procedures for various operational scenarios [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 25th to 31st, PVC capacity utilization increased, downstream pipe and profile开工率 increased slightly, inventory changed little, and the high - level inventory accumulation trend slowed down. - The cost of the calcium carbide method increased and losses deepened, while the cost of the ethylene method decreased and profits were repaired. - The high - operation state of PVC may continue during the winter, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend. - With the arrival of winter, the downstream开工率 of PVC is expected to decline seasonally, overseas demand is uncertain, and the contradiction between domestic supply and demand is significant, with high inventory pressure likely to persist. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4638 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4638 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the trading volume was 768,285 lots, an increase of 119,079 lots; the open interest was 1,282,294 lots, an increase of 38,511 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 174,380 lots, a decrease of 18,479 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,603.08 yuan/ton, down 3.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,678.75 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 98 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions was 2,800 yuan/ton, 2,690 yuan/ton, and 2,530 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 488 US dollars/ton and 518 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East and Southeast Asia was 179 US dollars/ton and 184 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 78.26%, an increase of 1.69%. The开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 77.43%, an increase of 3.05%; the开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 80.2%, a decrease of 1.44%. The total social inventory of PVC was 544,600 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons. The total inventory in the East China region was 495,300 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 49,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45,3990,000 square meters, an increase of 55,979,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,485,800,000 square meters, an increase of 54,710,600 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 10.45%, down 0.42%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.36%, an increase of 0.1%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options was 13.69%, down 0.88% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. The downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.68% to 50.54%, among which the pipe开工率 increased by 0.8% to 42%, and the profile开工率 increased by 1.96% to 37.83%. - As of October 30th, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% to 1.03 million tons month - on - month, and increased by 25.09% year - on - year. - From October 25th to 31st, the average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,201 yuan/ton, and the average national cost of the ethylene method decreased to 5,288 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method decreased to - 763 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased to - 445 yuan/ton [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements and the outlook for the "15th Five-Year Plan" in China's chemical industry, emphasizing the need for systematic advancement in six key areas to achieve high-quality development [1] Group 1: Achievements and Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's chemical industry experienced steady growth, with total revenue projected to reach 14.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 45% increase from 2020, indicating strong development momentum [1] - The annual growth rate of major chemical products' output remained around 4.6%, with China producing approximately 42% of the world's major chemical products, establishing itself as the largest and most comprehensive production system globally [1][2] Group 2: Global Positioning - In the global chemical industry, 11 Chinese companies made it to the top 50, generating 2.1 trillion yuan in revenue, which accounts for 27.9% of the total revenue of these companies, surpassing American companies by 1.35 times and exceeding the combined revenue of German and Japanese firms [2] Group 3: Environmental Progress - Significant progress was made in pollution reduction during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with industrial water reuse rates reaching 93% and energy efficiency improving, with energy consumption intensity for various products decreasing by 2% to 6% [6] - The comprehensive removal rate of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) exceeded 90%, and the reuse rate of industrial wastewater surpassed 75% [6] Group 4: Future Directions - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on six key areas: upgrading industrial structure, enhancing innovation capabilities, promoting green and low-carbon development, advancing smart manufacturing, strengthening international cooperation, and improving the quality of chemical parks [1][7][14] - The industry aims to transition from "fuel-driven" to "material-driven" production, optimize raw material sources, and enhance competitiveness across the entire chemical value chain [7][13] Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The industry is shifting from "follow-type" innovation focused on process optimization to "leading-type" innovation that emphasizes original breakthroughs and theoretical advancements [13] - There is a push for increased R&D investment as a percentage of sales revenue and the application of AI technology to overcome existing technological monopolies [13] Group 6: International Cooperation and Standards - The industry aims to transition from being a "participant" to a "leader" in international standards and rules, promoting overseas resource development and expanding export channels for petrochemical products [14][15] - Efforts will be made to establish a green and low-carbon standard system and enhance brand recognition in international markets [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the overall production is expected to increase slightly as some previously shut - down units resume production. The apparent demand is expected to decline slightly, and the inventory is likely to accumulate slightly. The production profit of some production methods has changed, and the export profit has slightly improved. The upstream price has decreased, and the downstream demand is weak. The strategy suggests paying attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities and adopting a short - biased position after a rebound [6][9][10]. - For caustic soda, the production is at a high level and is expected to remain so. The apparent demand is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly if demand does not meet expectations. The profit of some types of plants has changed, and the export profit is expected to strengthen. The strategy recommends a short - biased approach and a 1 - 5 reverse spread [101][103][104]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC 3.1.1 PVC Supply and Production - Production: This week's total PVC production was 47.70 million tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, it is expected to reach 50.61 million tons. The production of ethylene - based PVC decreased slightly this week, while the production of calcium carbide - based PVC increased. The import and export volumes remained stable. The apparent demand decreased slightly this week, and the expected demand for next week is 42.72 million tons. The inventory decreased slightly this week but is expected to accumulate slightly next week [6]. - Production Profit: The calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The production profit of some PVC production methods increased slightly, while the production profit of the East China VCM - purchasing method decreased. The export profit improved slightly, and the basis and monthly spread changed [9]. 3.1.2 PVC Price and Basis - Price: The spot prices of PVC in different regions and production methods showed some fluctuations this week. The FOB Tianjin price also changed. The warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly [17]. - Basis: The basis of PVC in different regions and contracts weakened this week [9]. 3.1.3 PVC Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread of PVC contracts showed different trends this week, with the 1 - 5 spread strengthening slightly [9][25]. 3.1.4 PVC Import and Export - International Price: The international PVC prices in different years and months showed certain trends [68][69][70]. - Export Profit: The export profit of PVC to different regions changed, with the profit to India increasing and the profit to Southeast Asia decreasing [9]. 3.1.5 PVC Demand - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of PVC downstream profiles and pipes showed different trends in different years and months [83]. 3.1.6 PVC Inventory - Inventory: The total PVC inventory decreased slightly this week, with the middle - stream inventory decreasing and the upstream inventory increasing slightly. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly next week [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda 3.2.1 Caustic Soda Supply and Production - Production: This week's total caustic soda production was 82.91 million tons, an increase from last week. Next week, it is expected to remain at a high level. The import and export volumes remained stable. The apparent demand increased slightly this week, and the expected demand for next week is 77.53 million tons. The inventory increased slightly this week and may change depending on demand [101]. - Production Profit: The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased slightly. The profit of Shandong caustic soda + liquid chlorine increased, and the export profit of caustic soda is expected to strengthen. The basis and monthly spread changed [103]. 3.2.2 Caustic Soda Price and Basis - Price: The spot prices of caustic soda in different regions and types showed some fluctuations this week [113]. - Basis: The basis of caustic soda in different contracts weakened this week [103][114]. 3.2.3 Caustic Soda Monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread of caustic soda contracts showed different trends this week, with the 1 - 5 spread weakening [103][120]. 3.2.4 Caustic Soda Inventory - Inventory: The total caustic soda inventory increased slightly this week, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda increased. The inventory may change depending on demand [101]. 3.2.5 Caustic Soda Downstream - The production and operating rates of caustic soda downstream products such as alumina, printing and dyeing, and viscose staple fiber showed different trends in different years and months [147][148][152].