Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent surge in crude oil prices, driven by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, is expected to positively impact coal prices. The demand from domestic power plants and chemical industries remains strong, with expectations for coal prices to rise [6][29] - The coal sector has shown resilience, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with a slight decline of 1.25% compared to a 1.41% drop in the index [2] - Key coal production and sales data indicate a steady increase in average daily coal sales and production, with significant year-on-year growth [2][27] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of March 27, 2026, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises reached 7.72 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The average daily production was 7.77 million tons, up 4.1% week-on-week and 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The total coal inventory stood at 24.88 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 29.9% [2][27] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim reached 688 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The import price index for thermal coal was 969 RMB/ton, up 4.76% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with main coking coal prices at 1,720 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 7.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies, coal chemical companies, and flexible coking coal companies. Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29] - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise due to strong downstream demand and the need for inventory replenishment in the coking and thermal coal sectors [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the chemical industry, highlighting its resilience and potential for recovery in demand and pricing [4][8]. Core Insights - BASF's Zhanjiang integrated base has commenced full production, marking a significant milestone as China's first wholly foreign-owned project in the heavy chemical sector, with a focus on high-end materials and special chemicals [3]. - Titanium dioxide prices have seen three consecutive increases within a month, indicating strong market dynamics and potential profitability for producers [3]. - The domestic tire industry is showing strong competitive advantages, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with key players identified in the display materials supply chain [4]. - The phosphate chemical sector is tightening due to environmental regulations and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with recommended stocks including Yuntianhua, Chuanheng, Xingfa Group, and Batian [5]. - The fluorochemical sector is poised for recovery, with high-end fluoropolymers and fine chemicals experiencing rapid growth, suggesting investment opportunities in leading companies [5]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Market Review - The overall performance of the chemical sector saw the CSI 300 index decline by 1.41%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index rose by 3.31% [14]. - The top-performing sub-industries included potassium fertilizer (up 11.58%) and other chemical raw materials (up 6.4%) [17]. Key Industry Dynamics - BASF's Zhanjiang base is designed to meet the growing market demand in China and the Asia-Pacific region, utilizing a fully renewable energy supply and advanced digital control systems [3]. - The price adjustments in titanium dioxide reflect a collective price increase trend among major producers, indicating strong market demand [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with domestic companies showing strong competitive positions [4]. - The consumer electronics recovery is expected to benefit upstream material suppliers, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The phosphate and fluorochemical sectors are identified as having strong fundamentals, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their market positions and growth potential [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term if the Strait of Hormuz fails to resume navigation. The high social inventory pressure has been alleviated to some extent, but the real - estate improvement still takes time [1]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region rose by 35 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12%, dropping to a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The average downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 2.33 percentage points to 41.66% in the fourth week after the Spring Festival, but it was 4.79 percentage points lower than the same lunar period last year. Some overseas device loads decreased, and export prices rose significantly. The social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival, but it was still high. The real - estate was still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needed time. The PVC had an anti - involution expectation, and the upstream raw material supply was tight. Some ethylene - based plants would reduce their operating loads this week [1]. 2.期现行情 - The PVC2605 contract opened lower and oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 5851 yuan/ton, the highest was 6063 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 5853 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.41%. The position volume decreased by 50885 lots to 753229 lots [2]. 3.基差方面 - On March 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 5720 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5853 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 133 yuan/ton, strengthening by 27 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3]. 4.基本面跟踪 Supply - Ethylene - based plants such as Qingdao Gulf and Xinpu Chemical reduced their operating loads. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12%, dropping to a neutral level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4]. Demand - The real - estate was still in the adjustment stage. In January - February 2026, national real - estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of March 22, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 13.10% week - on - week, but it was still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [5]. Inventory - As of the week of March 19, the PVC social inventory decreased by 2.55% week - on - week to 1.3713 million tons, 64.47% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival, but it was still high [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The chemical sector has experienced significant volatility, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropping by 9.49% and the Shenwan Chemical Index falling by 10.53% this week [2][13] - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iranian attack on Qatar, which has affected 17% of Qatar's liquefied natural gas export capacity, leading to an estimated annual revenue loss of approximately $20 billion [3] - The commencement of the first phase of Hengyi's coal-to-chemical fiber project, with an investment of 25.7 billion yuan, is noted as a significant development in the industry [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.38%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.26% [2][13] - The top five sub-industries in terms of performance were polyester (-4.83%), paint and ink (-5.56%), rubber products (-5.88%), tires (-6.29%), and other plastic products (-6.52%) [2][16] - The bottom five sub-industries included phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (-16.22%), chlor-alkali (-12.89%), pesticides (-12.08%), soda ash (-11.43%), and potassium fertilizer (-11.39%) [2][16] Major Industry Developments - The Iranian attack on Qatar has led to a significant disruption in LNG production, with two out of 14 production lines damaged, resulting in a production interruption of 12.8 million tons annually for 3 to 5 years [3] - Hengyi Group's coal-to-chemical fiber project in Turpan, Xinjiang, is set to invest 150 billion yuan over 5 to 8 years, aiming to create a vertically integrated industrial cluster [3] Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted as having strong domestic competitiveness, with recommended companies including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [3] - The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with a focus on upstream material companies benefiting from the recovery in the panel industry [4] - The report suggests attention to resilient cyclical industries and those that have completed inventory destocking, which may outperform the broader market in the coming year [4] Sub-Industry Insights - In the polyurethane sector, pure MDI prices remained stable at 22,300 yuan/ton, with operating rates at 73.5% [27] - The tire industry shows a slight increase in operating rates for both all-steel and semi-steel tires, indicating a stable demand environment [51] - The agricultural chemicals sector is experiencing price increases for glyphosate and other pesticides, driven by supply constraints and rising raw material costs [53][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, PVC production decreased slightly, with the calcium carbide method increasing its load and the ethylene method decreasing its load. After the upstream ethylene reduces its load next week, ethylene - based PVC production will decrease, and overall PVC production is expected to continue to decline. The export order volume has slightly recovered. Even if the export tax rebate for PVC is cancelled, it is expected to have a price competitive advantage. The apparent demand for this week was slightly lower than expected, and the inventory decreased by 33,200 tons this week, with further inventory reduction expected next week. The spot price of caustic soda fluctuated strongly, the calcium carbide price increased this week, the price of ethylene increased significantly, and the export profit of PVC improved significantly. Attention should be paid to whether ethylene - based PVC will continue to cut production, the impact of next - week's warehouse receipt cancellation on the spot, and the risk of price correction [6][9][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. Spot Market - **PVC Supply and Demand**: This week's total PVC production was 489,900 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last week. The ethylene - based production was 125,600 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons, and the calcium carbide - based production was 364,200 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons. The weekly average import and export volumes remained unchanged at 5,000 tons and 67,500 tons respectively. The apparent demand was 460,500 tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from last week. The total inventory was 975,900 tons, a decrease of 33,200 tons from last week. It is expected that next week's production will be 459,000 tons and 453,500 tons in the following week, and the apparent demand will be 449,100 tons and 426,800 tons respectively, with the inventory continuing to decrease [6] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 32% caustic soda rose from 630 yuan/ton last week to 650 yuan/ton this week. The price of Shandong liquid chlorine dropped from 300 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Shandong raw salt and Shaanxi semi - coke remained stable. The prices of calcium carbide in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Wuhai increased by 150 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of ethylene and VCM also increased [7] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China, South China, and Shandong all weakened, with the East China calcium carbide - based basis dropping from - 14 yuan/ton last week to - 180 yuan/ton this week [9] - **Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 inter - month spread strengthened from - 1 last week to 59 this week, while the 5 - 9 spread weakened from - 18 to - 34 [9] 3. Industrial Chain Profits - **Production Profits**: The calcium carbide production profit in Shaanxi increased from - 502 yuan/ton last week to - 327 yuan/ton this week. The production profits of some PVC production methods changed, such as the Northwest integrated PVC profit decreasing from 405 yuan/ton to 285 yuan/ton, and the imported ethylene - based PVC profit dropping from - 244 yuan/ton to - 1470 yuan/ton [9] - **Import and Export Profits**: The FOB Tianjin relative export profit increased from 916 yuan/ton last week to 925 yuan/ton this week, and the theoretical export profits to India and Southeast Asia increased significantly, by 925 yuan/ton and 1645 yuan/ton respectively [9] 4. Market Outlook - **Upstream**: The price of upstream PVC fluctuated, the price of caustic soda strengthened, and the comprehensive profit slightly declined. The calcium carbide - based production increased, and the ethylene - based production may decline. Attention should be paid to the load - reduction situation of the upstream cracking units [10] - **Mid - stream**: Traders mainly adopted the spot - futures arbitrage strategy, but the shipment situation has slightly deteriorated. The cancellation of warehouse receipts next week may suppress the spot [10] - **Downstream**: The downstream operating rate is still weak, but there is a slight situation of inventory replenishment [10] - **Strategies**: Pay attention to spot - futures arbitrage opportunities. Be cautious of the risk of correction for unilateral trading. Temporarily exit the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage. There is no option strategy for now [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown resilience, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points despite a weekly decline of 2.05% [2] - Key coal mines reported a slight decrease in average daily sales but a year-on-year increase, indicating stable demand [2] - The recent surge in coking coal futures is driven by downstream restocking expectations and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a potential price rebound [6][28] Summary by Sections Supply Side - Average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.54 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% but a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port stocks) was 24.53 million tons, down 2% week-on-week and down 31.1% year-on-year [2][7] Demand Side - Power and chemical industries have seen cumulative coal consumption increase by 1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The average daily coal consumption in the chemical sector was reported at 8.29 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [26] Price Side - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was reported at 687 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.29% [3] - Coking coal prices at major ports have shown mixed trends, with some ports experiencing price increases [4] - The futures settlement price for coking coal was 1,162 RMB/ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [4] Sentiment Side - The sentiment in the coal market remains optimistic due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and rising demand from the steel sector [6][28] - The overall market sentiment is supported by high steel prices and the suspension of coal exports from Russia [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, as the supply of upstream raw materials is tight, the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise, there is an expectation of reduced production load in the PVC market at home and abroad, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the current shipment of upstream manufacturers is relatively smooth, along with the high collective sentiment of chemical products [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region increased by 100 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12% on a环比 basis, dropping to a neutral level in the same period in recent years. After the Spring Festival holiday, the average operating rate of PVC downstream increased by 2.33 percentage points to 41.66%, but was 4.79 percentage points lower than the same lunar period last year. Due to the high price of raw materials, the downstream resistance increased. In terms of exports, export inquiries improved due to the rising prices in the Asian market. Under the improvement of supply and demand, the social inventory decreased on a环比 basis for the first time after the Spring Festival holiday, but it is still high, and the inventory pressure remains large. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The year-on-year growth rates of sales, new construction, construction, and completion have further declined. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions increased on a环比 basis but are still at a low level in the same period over the years. The improvement of the real estate still takes time. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract opened lower and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 5,761 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5,939 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 5,875 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.81%. The position volume decreased by 31,605 lots to 799,464 lots [2] Basis - On March 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region dropped to 5,735 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5,875 yuan/ton. The current basis was -140 yuan/ton, weakening by 60 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, ethylene-based plants such as Qingdao Gulf and Xinpu Chemical reduced their operating loads. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12% on a环比 basis, dropping to a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons were all put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. The year-on-year growth rates of sales, new construction, construction, and completion have further declined. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. From January to February, the commercial housing sales area was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 15.9%. The commercial housing sales volume was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 21.8%. From January to February, the new construction area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%; among them, the new construction area of residential houses was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. From January to February, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. From January to February, the completion area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%; among them, the completion area of residential houses was 46.25 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%. The overall improvement of the real estate still takes time. As of the week of March 15, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased by 43.23% on a环比 basis. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions increased on a环比 basis but are still at a low level in the same period over the years. Attention should be paid to whether the real estate favorable policies during the Two Sessions can boost commercial housing sales [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of March 19, the PVC social inventory decreased by 2.55% on a环比 basis to 1.3713 million tons, 64.47% higher than the same period last year. Under the improvement of supply and demand, the social inventory decreased on a环比 basis for the first time after the Spring Festival holiday, but it is still high (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East China and South China from 21 to 41) [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC price is expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the near term if the Strait of Hormuz fails to restore navigation. The upstream raw material supply of PVC is tight due to the non - resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and vessel attacks, leading to rising ethylene and calcium carbide prices. There are expectations of reduced production load in the domestic and overseas PVC markets, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. However, the real estate market is still in adjustment, and PVC social inventory remains high [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week - on - week, being at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream operating rate of PVC rose 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, 3.13 percentage points lower than the same lunar period last year. The real estate market is still in adjustment, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas from January to February 2026. The export inquiry has improved due to rising Asian market prices [1]. - **Inventory**: The PVC social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to rise last week. As of the week of March 12, it increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 140.72 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still large. The futures warehouse receipts are at a high level [1][6]. - **Price Trend**: The PVC2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions, and oscillated downward, closing at 5735 yuan/ton with a 1.31% decline. The basis in East China is - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening by 106 yuan/ton, at a neutral - to - low level [2][3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PVC2605 contract opened lower, with a minimum price of 5695 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5950 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5735 yuan/ton. The position decreased by 46728 lots to 855380 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On March 18, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 5710 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5735 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 25 yuan/ton, strengthening by 106 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week - on - week, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua was in trial production in December 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: The real estate market is in adjustment. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%. The new construction area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. As of the week of March 15, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 43.23% week - on - week, but it was still at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 12, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 140.72 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still at a high level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral with a slight bullish bias [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The core view on PVC is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Domestically, PVC production has slightly declined, and overseas chlor - alkali plants have faced force majeure. Recent export quotes have increased, trading has improved, and the industrial chain inventory has decreased. Due to geopolitical conflicts, there is a shortage of ethylene, which may affect the operation of ethylene - based PVC plants at home and abroad, thereby improving supply and increasing exports. Attention should be paid to domestic and foreign supply, export transaction prices, and trading volumes [3] - The month - spread is neutral with a slight bullish bias as the near - term supply - demand pattern has improved, and the 5 - 9 spread has changed its structure [3] - The raw material support is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Calcium carbide production has declined, with the price in Wuhai at 2550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan from last week. The price of medium - sized semi - coke is 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. Ethylene has risen by 230 US dollars to 1201 US dollars/ton from last week [3] - The supply is neutral. The overall PVC powder production rate is 78.49%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the production rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder is 81.89%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points, and the production rate of ethylene - based PVC powder is 71.00%, a decrease of 6.24 percentage points [3][15] - The profit is neutral with a slight bearish bias. The single - PVC profit has recovered, and the comprehensive profit has improved. The profit per ton of calcium carbide integration is 330 yuan, the profit per ton of Shandong's calcium carbide - purchasing method is 14 yuan, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 369 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit in the Northwest is 919 yuan/ton, the comprehensive profit in North China is 197 yuan/ton, and the double - ton price difference is 3241 yuan [3] - The demand is neutral. The pipe production rate is 38.00% (+5%), and the profile production rate is 30.0% (+2.61%), gradually recovering after the Spring Festival. The quotes of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC for export have strengthened significantly, and trading has improved [3] - The macro - situation is neutral with a slight bullish bias. Against the background of geopolitical conflicts, energy and chemical products have shown strong performance [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Raw Materials 3.1.1 Semi - coke - Semi - coke production has declined, with the sample enterprise production rate at 53.26%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous period. The price of medium - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 725 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] 3.1.2 Calcium Carbide - Calcium carbide supply has slightly declined, with the production rate dropping 1.58 percentage points to 72.70%, and the overall production rate is relatively low. The price of calcium carbide has rebounded, with the price in Wuhai at 2550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan from last week [10] 3.2 PVC Production - This week, the overall PVC powder production rate is 78.49%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points from the previous week. The production rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder is 81.89%, an increase of 1.48 percentage points, and the production rate of ethylene - based PVC powder is 71.00%, a decrease of 6.24 percentage points [15] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream production has recovered from a low level. The pipe production rate is 38.00% (+5%), and the profile production rate is 30.0% (+2.61%), gradually recovering after the Spring Festival [24] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory has increased. The social inventory is 122.8 tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous period. Among them, the sample inventory in East China is 117.7 tons, an increase of 0.62 tons, and the sample inventory in South China is 5.13 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons [34] - The upstream factory inventory has decreased. The factory inventory is 37.19 tons, a decrease of 6.76 tons from the previous period. The industrial chain inventory has decreased [37] 3.5 PVC Profit 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide - based Profit - The profit of calcium carbide integration has improved. The profit of Xinjiang's integration is 330 yuan/ton, and the profit of the Northwest's integration is - 362 yuan/ton. The calcium carbide - purchasing method has turned profitable, with a profit of 7.5 yuan per ton in the Northwest and 14 yuan per ton in North China [49] 3.5.2 Ethylene - based Profit - The profit of the ethylene - purchasing method has declined. The profit of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 369 yuan/ton, and the profit in North China is 519 yuan/ton. The increase in ethylene price has compressed the profit [52] 3.5.3 Comprehensive Profit and Double - ton Price Difference - The comprehensive profit has recovered. The comprehensive profit in the Northwest is 919 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit in Shandong is 197 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference has rebounded from a low level to 3241 yuan/ton [60] 3.6 Import and Export - In 2025, exports were good. The total annual export volume of PVC powder was 382.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.05%. Exports were strong in December, with an export volume of 31.41 tons, an increase of 3.88 tons from the previous month. The import volume of PVC powder from January to December was 22.66 tons, basically the same as last year [66] - The export of floor has declined. The cumulative export of floor from January to December was 415.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [71] 3.7 Related Commodities - The demand for cement has been average. Since 2024, the real - estate demand has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the production rate has been at a low level [76] 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market has strengthened. The 05 contract has risen from 5229 last week to 5901. The month - spread has strengthened significantly, with the 5 - 9 month - spread at 16. The registered warrants have been continuously cancelled. On March 16, the number of warrants was 72760, a decrease of 6140 from last week [86] 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet | PVC Variety | 2026/1 | 2026/2 | 2026/3 | 2026/4 | 2026/5 | 2026/6 | 2026/7 | 2026/8 | 2026/9 | 2026/10 | 2026/11 | 2026/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Production (tons) | 216.5 | 210.0 | 187.0 | 180.0 | 190.0 | 194.0 | 195.0 | 196.0 | 197.0 | 195.0 | 196.0 | 196.0 | | Total Demand (tons) | 180.5 | 134.0 | 156.0 | 164.0 | 170.0 | 170.0 | 165.0 | 166.0 | 167.0 | 168.0 | 170.0 | 168.0 | | Import (tons) | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | | Excess (tons) | 7.0 | 38.0 | - 10.0 | - 16.0 | - 2.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | | Year - on - Year Production Growth Rate | 4.09% | 12.30% | - 8.33% | - 6.54% | - 5.00% | - 1.97% | - 2.01% | - 4.99% | - 3.38% | - 8.62% | - 2.00% | - 4.39% | | Year - on - Year Demand Growth Rate | 20.33% | | - 12.76% | - 12.16% | - 7.34% | - 2.30% | - 2.86% | 2.55% | - 3.32% | 2.14% | - 5.51% | - 2.33% | | Cumulative Year - on - Year Production Growth Rate | 4.09% | 7.97% | | 2.42% | - 0.24% | - 0.82% | - 1.01% | | - 1.15% | - 1.65% | - 1.85% | - 2.56% | - 2.51% | - 2.67% | | Cumulative Year - on - Year Demand Growth Rate | 20.33% | 3.59% | - 2.22% | - 3.60% | - 3.33% | - 3.25% | - 2.45% | - 2.56% | - 2.05% | - 2.42% | - 2.19% | - 2.20% | [88]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The PVC price is likely to rise and difficult to fall in the near term if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, as the upstream raw material supply of PVC is tight, there are expectations of reduced production loads in the domestic and overseas PVC markets, and downstream demand is gradually recovering [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week-on-week, remaining at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The average operating rate of PVC downstream increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33% in the third week after the Spring Festival, but was 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last lunar year. Export inquiries improved due to rising prices in the Asian market. Social inventory remained high, and the inventory pressure was still large. The real estate market was still in the adjustment phase in January - February 2026, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates. Although the commercial housing transactions rebounded week-on-week in the third week after the Spring Festival, they were still at a low level in the same period over the years [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract opened lower, increased positions, and oscillated upward. The lowest price was 5,659 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5,937 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 5,901 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.73%. The open interest increased by 17,121 lots to 902,108 lots [2] 3. Basis - On March 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in East China rose to 5,770 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5,901 yuan/ton. The current basis was -131 yuan/ton, weakening by 26 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] 4. Fundamental Tracking Supply Side - The PVC operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35% week-on-week, remaining at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. A 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December 2025 [4] Demand Side - The real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year-on-year growth rates. In January - February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The commercial housing sales area was 92.93 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 15.9%. The commercial housing sales volume was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 21.8%. The new construction area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%; the new construction area of residential houses was 36.95 million square meters, a decrease of 23.3%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%. The completion area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%; the completion area of residential houses was 46.25 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9%. As of the week of March 15, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 43.23% week-on-week, but was still at a low level in the same period over the years [5] Inventory - As of the week of March 12, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week-on-week to 1.4072 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to increase that week, remaining at a high level [6]