PX价格下跌

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宏源期货研究报告
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 06:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate weakly, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, etc. all declined compared to the previous values, with decline rates ranging from -0.44% to -1.40% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE TA contracts (including main and near - month contracts) and PTA spot prices all decreased, with decline rates between -1.33% and -1.58% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE PX contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE PR contracts and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East and South China decreased, with decline rates from -0.68% to -1.43% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester fibers and slices decreased, with the decline rate of polyester bottle - chips reaching -1.03% [2] Production and Sales - The开工 rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on September 19, 2025. The sales rates of polyester filaments increased by 2.43%, while those of polyester staple fibers and polyester chips decreased by 10.19% and 16.55% respectively [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] PX Market Summary - **Important Information**: Last week, the PX price was stagnant and then declined. By Friday, the absolute price decreased by 1.9% to 816 dollars/ton CFR, and the weekly average price decreased by 0.5% to 830 dollars/ton CFR. Economic concerns led to a decline in international oil prices, squeezing the cost support of PX. The domestic PX operation remained at a high level, while the PTA factory maintenance increased and polyester demand was weak [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: The PX2511 contract closed at 6594 yuan/ton (-2.51%). The domestic PX operation remained high, overseas devices were relatively stable, and the short - term overseas operation would increase further. The PTA maintenance plans were gradually implemented, and the short - term benefits would be under pressure due to poor supply - demand [2] PTA Market Summary - **Long - Short Logic**: The TA2601 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton (-2.21%). The cost support was insufficient, the PTA spot supply was abundant, and the market sentiment was weak. The polyester product sales were mediocre, and the demand peak season had not started [2] PR Market Summary - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5750 - 5870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle - chip futures were weak, the supply - side quotes mostly declined, and the trading atmosphere was light [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: The 2511 contract closed at 5762 yuan/ton (-1.97%). The bottle - chip supply - side operation was stable, the market spot supply was abundant, and the downstream terminals made rigid purchases at low prices [2]