江浙涤丝昨日产销部分放量，至下午3点半附近平均产销估算在180-190%。江浙几家工厂产销分别在160%、0%、 250%、500%、100%、0%、210%、50%、280%、100%、280%、50%、75%、310%、90%、25%、70%、130%、 0%、100%、200%、500%。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.4%（环比-0.2%），当前需求端订单衔接不足，局部散单为主，坯布库存高位去化缓慢， 市场对后续需求高度预期中性偏悲观，终端原料采购上整体维持谨慎观望居多，消化前期备货的同时刚需跟进。 聚酯负荷方面，长丝库存不高但逐步累库，9月长丝短纤负荷预计继续持稳小幅回升，瓶片检修和重启轮动，负荷 回升高度有限，预计9月聚酯负荷持稳小幅回升，月均负荷或在91.5%偏下。当前下游备货库存下降至低位，节前 预计会有所补库，但国庆假期期间终端也有放假可能。 化工日报 | 2025-09-26 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -73 元/吨(环比变动+0元/吨），PTA现货加工费191元/吨（环比变动+26元/吨），主 力合约盘面加工费320元/吨（环比变动+5元/吨），PTA负荷低位提升中，近端去库基本面尚可 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-25 地缘升温，PTA跟随成本减仓反弹 市场要闻与数据 1、隔夜原油反弹较明显，亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石油配送设施发动袭击，特朗普对俄罗斯态度 变强硬，威胁若不愿达成停火协议，将准备大幅加征关税，地缘风险升温，隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整 后再度反弹。 2、终端订单有所好转，节前备货及原料价格反弹下长丝产销好转，江浙涤丝昨日产销部分放量，至下午3点半附 近平均产销估算在7-8成 市场分析 成本端，近期油价震荡运行，关注俄乌动态。隔夜原油反弹较明显，亚盘时间偏强震荡。乌克兰对两处俄罗斯石 油配送设施发动袭击，特朗普对俄罗斯态度变强硬，威胁若不愿达成停火协议，将准备大幅加征关税，地缘风险 升温，隔夜原油在关键支撑位附近短暂调整后再度反弹。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN206美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX四季度供需面转弱，PXN走弱。中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时短期内海外开工将进一步走高。由于综合生产效益较好，国内部分PX装置四 季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX供应较预期继续增加。而下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后， 新装 ...

化工日报 | 2025-09-24 旺季不旺，聚酯产业链偏弱运行 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期油价震荡运行，关注俄乌动态。随着欧美炼厂进入传统检修季，需求面临季节性回落，前期EFS已经 跌至历史低位，近期油轮运费飙升表明未来数月内会有大量西区套利船货流入东区，从而冲击沙特的市场与定价 策略，东区市场的实货偏紧将得到彻底缓解，当前多头仅有中国SPR补库这一话题可供炒作，但从船期和库存上看， 无法得到印证。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN212美元/吨(环比变动-6.88美元/吨）。近期PX四季度供需面转弱，PXN走弱。中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时短期内海外开工将进一步走高。由于综合生产效益较好，国内部分PX装置四 季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX供应较预期继续增加。而下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后， 新装置投产推迟和部分装置检修落地，且时间较长，PX四季度供需面预期明显弱化，去库转为累库下方支撑转弱。 关注后续利润压缩下的检修情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -79 元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨），PTA现货加工费159元/吨（环比变动-12元/吨），主 力合约盘面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX will operate weakly, PTA will operate weakly, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, naphtha, xylene, etc. all declined compared to the previous values, with decline rates ranging from -0.44% to -1.40% [1] - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE TA contracts (including main and near - month contracts) and PTA spot prices all decreased, with decline rates between -1.33% and -1.58% [1] - **PX Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE PX contracts mostly declined, while the domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads also decreased [1] - **PR Futures and Spot**: The prices of CZCE PR contracts and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East and South China decreased, with decline rates from -0.68% to -1.43% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester fibers and slices decreased, with the decline rate of polyester bottle - chips reaching -1.03% [2] Production and Sales - The开工 rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged on September 19, 2025. The sales rates of polyester filaments increased by 2.43%, while those of polyester staple fibers and polyester chips decreased by 10.19% and 16.55% respectively [1] Device Information - A 700,000 - ton PX device in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] PX Market Summary - **Important Information**: Last week, the PX price was stagnant and then declined. By Friday, the absolute price decreased by 1.9% to 816 dollars/ton CFR, and the weekly average price decreased by 0.5% to 830 dollars/ton CFR. Economic concerns led to a decline in international oil prices, squeezing the cost support of PX. The domestic PX operation remained at a high level, while the PTA factory maintenance increased and polyester demand was weak [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: The PX2511 contract closed at 6594 yuan/ton (-2.51%). The domestic PX operation remained high, overseas devices were relatively stable, and the short - term overseas operation would increase further. The PTA maintenance plans were gradually implemented, and the short - term benefits would be under pressure due to poor supply - demand [2] PTA Market Summary - **Long - Short Logic**: The TA2601 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton (-2.21%). The cost support was insufficient, the PTA spot supply was abundant, and the market sentiment was weak. The polyester product sales were mediocre, and the demand peak season had not started [2] PR Market Summary - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5750 - 5870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle - chip futures were weak, the supply - side quotes mostly declined, and the trading atmosphere was light [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: The 2511 contract closed at 5762 yuan/ton (-1.97%). The bottle - chip supply - side operation was stable, the market spot supply was abundant, and the downstream terminals made rigid purchases at low prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The postponement of the maintenance of two PX units has narrowed the de - stocking range of PX in the fourth quarter, weakening the previous de - stocking support. Coupled with more PTA maintenance plans, PX prices have fallen and PTA processing fees have widened [1] - The recent oil price has been oscillating, and the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored. The PX load in China has gradually recovered, and the PX balance sheet in September has changed from de - stocking to a loose balance. However, PX is still in a low - inventory state [1] - The PTA load is rising from a low level. The short - term de - stocking fundamentals are okay, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning expectations. The demand recovery is limited, and the polyester load increase is restricted [2] - The polyester start - up rate shows signs of recovery, but order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase in September [2] - The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing margin has widened. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly, and there is still large supply - demand pressure under the new device commissioning [3] - For the strategy, it is recommended to go long on the PF processing fee at low prices in cross - variety trading, and there is no recommendation for cross - period trading [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - The report presents PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report shows the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [27][30][34] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][39][45] Downstream Polyester Load - The report shows the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days of various filaments, and the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines, as well as the profits of filament FDY and POY [49][51][62] PF Detailed Data - The report presents the polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days of polyester staple fiber, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, and the available inventory days in pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn factories [71][73][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The report shows the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [91][93][101]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The PTA maintenance plans have increased under low processing fees, such as Hengli and Dushan Energy planning to conduct maintenance in October and November respectively. The PTA futures closed up in a volatile manner on Wednesday, the negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and individual mainstream suppliers reduced the contract supply in October, leading to a slight strengthening of the spot basis [1]. - In terms of the cost side, the oil price has been fluctuating recently, and attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The oil price has rebounded since last Friday. On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have been suspended again. On the other hand, the US military carried out a military operation in the offshore area of Venezuela, which raised concerns about Venezuela's national security. The PXN was 229 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month change of +1.63 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The negotiation on the floating price of PX was deadlocked, and the PXN weakened to 230 US dollars/ton and then fluctuated. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet in September has changed from destocking to a loose balance, but the overall PX inventory is still at a low level. As the PTA devices resume operation, the PX will turn to destocking again. Considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA devices, there is support below the PXN. Continued attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - In terms of TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was -77 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 130 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk was 332 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +6 yuan/ton). The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 91.6% (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%). The current demand shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, mainly with local scattered orders. The high inventory of grey fabrics is being depleted slowly. The market's expectation for the subsequent demand level is neutral to pessimistic. Most terminal raw material purchases maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, digesting previous stocks while following up with rigid demand. In terms of polyester load, the inventory of filament is not high but gradually accumulating. It is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly rebound in September. The load of bottle chips is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and slightly rebound in September, with the average monthly load likely to be below 91.5% [3]. - In terms of PF, the spot production profit was 175 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -6 yuan/ton). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber fluctuated and consolidated following the raw materials, and the load continued to increase slightly. As the price difference between high and low prices in the market narrowed, factory sales improved, inventory decreased, the demand for staple fiber at a low price was acceptable, the factory inventory was low, and currently, the inventory held by traders was small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber was better than that of the raw material side. Due to the relatively weak performance of raw materials, the processing margin of direct-spun polyester staple fiber expanded to over 1000 [3]. - In terms of PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 454 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -11 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The current order receipt and shipment performance of bottle chips are average. It is reported that the industry's overall target of 20% production reduction and suspension in September remains unchanged. It is expected that the subsequent increase in bottle chip load will be limited, the overall inventory pressure of factories has decreased, and the processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain small fluctuations. Under the pressure of the commissioning of the new Fuhai device in the future, the supply-demand pressure is still relatively large, and production reduction is needed for adjustment. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices [4]. - Strategy: For single-sided trading, the ratings for PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. For PX, since August, PX devices have been restarted intensively. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, and the PXN has loosened. However, with low inventory and the restart of PTA, the PX will turn to destocking again, and there is support below the PXN. For TA, the PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited. For PF, the demand for PF has improved slightly, the inventory has started to decrease, the demand at a low price is acceptable, and currently, the inventory held by traders is small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material side, but its upward momentum is not strong. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. There is no strategy for cross-period trading [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures display the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][76][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [93][97][100]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market anticipates a general cooling of the geopolitical situation, with the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine progressing gradually, causing oil prices to give back gains and continue weak operation. PX supply is recovering, and it is at an advantageous position in the industrial chain with stable bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Polyester bottle - chip supply is sufficient, and the market sentiment is cautious. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 20, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $62.71 per barrel, up 0.58%; Brent crude oil was $66.84 per barrel, up 1.60%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $575.50 per ton, up 0.17%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $679.00 per ton, up 0.37%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $837.00 per ton, up 0.22% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,778 yuan per ton, up 0.93%, and the settlement price was 4,742 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,689 yuan per ton, up 0.49%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,686 yuan per ton, down 0.09%, and the foreign price index was $624.00 per ton, up 0.16% [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,844 yuan per ton, up 1.03%, and the settlement price was 6,782 yuan per ton, down 0.15%. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,654 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $261.50 per ton, up 0.32%, and the PX - MX spread was $158.00 per ton, down 0.42% [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,964 yuan per ton, up 0.98%, and the settlement price was 5,914 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,900 yuan per ton, down 0.34%, and in the South China market was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8,650 yuan per ton, the price index of polyester POY was 7,100 yuan per ton, down 0.35%, and the price index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D remained unchanged at 7,150 yuan per ton [2] Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 7, expected to last 2 months. Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 - million - ton PTA device started maintenance on August 8, expected to last 1 month. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is planned for technical transformation from August 15 for 3 months [2] Production and Sales Situation - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle - chip factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms all remained unchanged on August 20, 2025. The sales rate of polyester filament was 74.19%, up 23.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.70%, down 4.34 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 103.06%, up 17.01 percentage points [1] Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4,778 yuan per ton (up 0.67%) with a daily trading volume of 790,700 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6,844 yuan per ton (up 0.77%) with a daily trading volume of 308,800 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5,964 yuan per ton (up 0.81%) with a daily trading volume of 73,600 lots. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to run in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 1, PR view score: 1) [2]

宏观情绪降温，关注成本端走势 市场要闻与数据 1、国内外重要会议告一段落，部分内容表述略不及市场预期，市场情绪有所回落。 2、国家统计局数据显示7月份制造业PMI为49.3%，环比下降0.4%，制造业景气水平有所回落，对市场情绪产生一 定影响; 市场分析 化工日报 | 2025-08-01 成本端，地缘局势有再度扰动油价，特朗普缩短对俄罗斯宽限时间，二级制裁引发市场对俄罗斯原油供应中断担 忧。同时特朗普警告伊朗不要重启核设施否则可能会再次发动轰炸，中东隐忧再起也支持油价反弹；但基本面方 面EIA数据显示美国原油及成品油均累库，供需面不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN258美元/吨(环比变动-10.05美元/吨）。近期亚洲PX负荷基本持稳，基本面变化不大， 市场主要交易宏观情绪。PX延续低库存格局，但缺乏更多利好下现货浮动价持稳，在需求端没有明显利空的情况 下，考虑到新PTA装置对PX的刚需采购，PXN下方有支撑，关注宏观以及原油走势。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -15 元/吨(环比变动-5元/吨），PTA现货加工费176元/吨（环比变动+8元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费374元/吨（环比变动-15元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical situations are disturbing oil prices, and concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and Middle - East tensions support oil price rebounds. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's fundamental supply - demand situation changes little, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes. Polyester load is currently strong, but the recovery of demand needs to be monitored. PF is affected by downstream production cuts, and PR's processing fees are expected to return to the range after repair [3][4][5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report presents the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [48][50][59] PF Detailed Data - The report presents polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure - polyester yarn start - up rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][91][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of crude oil shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, with overall volatile movement. The supply-side OPEC+ maintains the production increase plan, and the impact of the increase is gradually emerging, with signs of weakening oil prices. However, the improvement in macro sentiment brought about by the peak demand season and the trade agreement between the US, Japan, and South Korea, as well as geopolitical factors, provide support for the downside of oil prices [1] - In the PX market, the PXN was $294/ton in the previous trading session (a month-on-month change of +$13.63/ton). Recently, the Asian PX load has remained basically stable, with little change in the fundamentals. The market mainly trades on macro sentiment. PX continues to have a low inventory pattern, but the spot floating price remains stable in the absence of more positive factors. Considering the rigid demand procurement of PX by new PTA plants, there is support for the downside of PXN. Attention should be paid to macro and crude oil trends [1] - In the TA market, the spot basis of the TA main contract is -7 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +1 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 195 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +30 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures market is 384 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +2 yuan/ton). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament factories has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the basic supply and demand of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a month-on-month increase of 0.4%). Last week, driven by the price increase effect, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the inventory of filament factories decreased significantly. The operating loads of weaving and texturing, as well as filament and staple fiber, rebounded slightly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The pressure on staple fiber factories for cotton-type products is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low-melting products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when demand will pick up in the future [2] - For PF, the spot production profit is 114 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 78 yuan/ton). The demand side of PF has weak orders and high inventory. Affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, the willingness to hold PF is low. The near-month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is 392 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +27 yuan/ton). The maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been completed, and it is expected that the load of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term. After the repair of the spot processing fee for bottle chips, it is expected to return to the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton for oscillation [2] - In terms of strategies, for unilateral trading, PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral. Attention should be paid to the changes in the China-US negotiation tariff policy from July 27 - 30 and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month. For PX, several PX plants are under maintenance recently, and the negotiation of the PX floating price remains stable, with the overall inventory still at a low level. In addition, a new 3.2 million-ton PTA plant has been put into operation recently, and the short-term polyester load is strong, so it is expected that PXN will have support. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has decreased significantly, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. There is little change in the fundamentals of PTA itself, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment. For PF, it is affected by the production cuts of downstream enterprises, and the overall willingness to hold is low. The near-month contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been implemented, and it is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to the range for oscillation after repair. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, short the PTA processing fee at high prices. There is no recommendation for cross-period trading [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter-period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter-period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short fiber 1.56D*38mm semi-gloss natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] International Spreads and Import-Export Profits - Figures include the toluene US-Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operating loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures cover the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, staple fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct-spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [46][48][50][59][62][64] Detailed PF Data - Figures show the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, regenerated cotton-type staple fiber load, original-regenerated spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester-cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester-cotton yarn processing fee [70][73][80][81][86] Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - regenerated 3A-grade white bottle chip spread, bottle chip next-month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next-next-month spread (next-next month - base month) [88][90][99][102]