Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and investors can exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage positions carefully [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Overall surplus pressure persists. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when spot losses expand [20][21]. - **Crude Oil**: With high uncertainty in the market, it is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cost end is stable, but there is a large rebound space. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a negative feedback stage, but the reduction of standard product supply may boost market sentiment. Investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate [32][34]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to oscillate with a multi - empty game [35][36]. - **PVC**: The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to changes in the supply side [37][38]. - **Urea**: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the downward space is limited [38][39]. - **PX**: May adjust in a slightly stronger oscillatory manner in the short term. Pay attention to opportunities to participate at low levels [40]. - **PTA**: The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good. Investors can consider participating at low levels following the cost end and control risks [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. Investors can participate within a range and be cautious about the upside [42][44]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following raw material prices. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [45]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: Expected to follow the cost end. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [47]. - **Copper**: Prices will remain at a high level, but be cautious about chasing the rise [48][49]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate weakly within a range [54][55][56]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner [57]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to relevant policies in Indonesia [58]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can focus on long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range, and soybean oil can consider long - buying opportunities for call options in the low - level range [59][60]. - **Palm Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see [61][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to be strong [66][69][70]. - **Sugar**: After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see [71][74][75]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong [76][77][78]. - **Hogs**: It is recommended to wait and see, and continue to track the large - weight hog slaughter rhythm and consumption changes [79][80]. - **Eggs**: Consider a positive spread strategy [81][82]. - **Corn and Starch**: Wait for the release of supply pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.24%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Policy and Macroeconomic Situation**: The central bank carried out a 400 - billion - yuan 1 - year MLF operation, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The RMB against the US dollar has appreciated. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.32%, 0.27%, 0.97%, and 1.16% respectively [7]. - **Industry News**: In November 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and 5G mobile phones accounted for 91.6%. From January to November, 2.58 million urban old - community renovation projects started nationwide, and 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps completed the annual plan [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The main contract of gold closed at 1,008.76, with a decline of 0.58%; the main contract of silver closed at 17,397, with a decline of 1.20% [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The complex global trade and financial environment and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying supports the price, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,960 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,180 - 3,310 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,260 - 3,280 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and demand is in a year - on - year decline. The market will enter the demand off - season. Supply pressure has eased, but inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory consumption speed is fast [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 670 yuan/ton [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined. The supply - demand pattern is weak, with imports increasing year - on - year, domestic production lower than last year, and port inventory at the highest level in the past five years [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated narrowly [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For coking coal, production has decreased in December, and downstream procurement has increased. For coke, the third - round price cut of spot procurement has started. Coking enterprises' operations are stable, but environmental protection has increased restrictions. Steel mills' demand for coke has weakened [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The main contract of manganese - silicon rose 0.48% to 5,846 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon - iron rose 0.85% to 5,692 yuan/ton. Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 5,650 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price remained flat at 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the supply of Australian ore has returned to normal. The cost of ferroalloys has fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The production of ferroalloys has continued to decline, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus pressure persists [20][21]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: As of the week ending December 9, fund managers reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US decreased for the second consecutive week. Barclays maintained its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast at $65 per barrel, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to widen [22][23]. - **Market Analysis**: The reduction of net short positions by US funds indicates short - covering. The US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers are beneficial to oil prices, but the Russia - Ukraine peace talks increase the uncertainty of oil prices. It is advisable to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [22][24]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil oscillated upward and closed above the 20 - day moving average [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The Asian fuel - oil market is generally stable, and the spot price difference of high - sulfur fuel oil remains at a discount. The cost end is stable, and there is a large rebound space [26][27][28]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The low - end prices in the Hangzhou PP market rebounded slightly, and the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market increased by 30 - 120 yuan/ton [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be generally stable with minor fluctuations. The supply - side pressure of standard products is expected to slow down slightly. Downstream factory operating rates are expected to decline, and they mainly replenish inventory at low prices. Near the end of the month and the year, enterprises have the intention to reduce inventory by lowering prices [30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.76%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was adjusted up to 11,750 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of raw material butadiene has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost support. The supply is abundant, but the demand from downstream tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory in mainstream warehouses has decreased, while the social inventory has continued to accumulate [32][33]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of natural rubber rose 1.91%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 1.48%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted up to around 15,400 yuan/ton, with the basis remaining stable [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic production area is accelerating the suspension of production, and the overseas raw - material price is high. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The sales of heavy - duty trucks in November increased year - on - year [35]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PVC rose 0.34%, and the spot price remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has decreased slightly due to temporary production cuts, and the demand from downstream enterprises has declined. The cost of raw materials is stable, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry has increased. The social inventory has decreased slightly [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The main contract of urea rose 0.34%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable, with the basis remaining stable [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The daily output of urea is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is expected to increase slightly. The coal price is stable, and the industry profit has rebounded slightly. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is in line with expectations [38]. PX - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PX2603 rose 0.46% during the day and 1.72% at night. The PXN spread was adjusted to $350 per ton [40]. - **Market Analysis**: The PX operating rate remained at 88.1%, and the spot liquidity was tight, and inventory was low. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce production by about 10% in January 2026. The short - term PXN spread has been repaired to a moderately high level, and the short - process profit has continued to improve. PX is expected to oscillate in a slightly stronger manner in the short term [40]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PTA2605 rose 0.98% during the day and 1.64% at night [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of PTA has increased, and the demand from the polyester industry has declined. The export of PTA in November increased significantly month - on - month. The processing fee has rebounded, and the inventory remains low. The medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is good, and it is advisable to participate at low levels following the cost end [41]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The main contract of ethylene glycol rose 2.25% due to the planned maintenance of a Taiwanese device [42]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol has increased slightly. Two Taiwanese devices plan to shut down for maintenance, which will slightly relieve the supply pressure. However, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the expected arrival at the port has increased. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42][43][44]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The main contract of short - fiber 2602 rose 0.96% [45]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of short - fiber has decreased but remains at a relatively high level. The raw - material procurement of downstream factories has increased, and the cost - driving force has strengthened. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [45]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The main contract of bottle - grade PET 2603 rose 1.44%, and the processing fee rebounded to around 500 yuan/ton [46]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of bottle - grade PET has decreased slightly, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, and it is expected to follow the cost end [46]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 0.44% to 123,520 yuan/ton [47]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory has gradually decreased. There is short - term support for prices due to the mismatch between supply and demand [47]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 97,680 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.51% [48]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro - economic data in the US is mixed. The fundamentals remain in a tight balance, and the supply shortage risk remains unresolved. The demand has short - term pressure, and the actual available inventory of electrolytic copper is low. The upward movement of copper prices is mainly due to short - term speculative buying, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [48]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.61%; the main contract of alumina closed at 2,635 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38% [50]. - **Market Analysis**: The alumina price has fallen below the average cash cost, and the supply surplus pressure remains unchanged. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is average. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 23,105 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.43% [52]. - **Market Analysis**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate is under pressure, and the production of refined zinc has continued to decline. The demand from downstream industries has decreased, and the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,265 yuan/ton

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under some pressure and should be treated with caution. The stock index has little risk of a sharp decline and can be bought at an appropriate time. For precious metals, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - term buying opportunity. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market conditions [6][7][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.03% to 116.160 yuan, the 10 - year main contract flat at 108.415 yuan, the 5 - year main contract flat at 105.875 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract falling 0.01% to 102.454 yuan. The central bank carried out 2128 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 14, with a net investment of 711 billion yuan. China's economic data shows a mixed picture. It is expected that treasury bond futures are under pressure and should be treated with caution [5][6] Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The current domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the stock index has little risk of a sharp decline and can be bought at an appropriate time [7] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 953.2 with a decline of 0.83%, and the silver main contract closed at 12,351 with a decline of 1.88%. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high pricing and large fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see for a long - term buying opportunity [9] Thread and Hot Roll - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar demand is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The fundamental logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [11][12] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The national hot - metal daily output has been declining for five consecutive weeks, and the supply is expected to increase year - on - year. The port inventory has exceeded the level of the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has weakened. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke may weaken. From a technical perspective, the futures have been falling after encountering resistance. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [16][17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract closed down 0.07% to 5748 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract closed down 0.18% to 5490 yuan/ton. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, the output is declining, and the demand is weak. After a decline, investors can consider long - term opportunities when the spot falls into the loss - making range again [19][20] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil showed a slight oscillation with a slowdown in the decline. The Baker Hughes rig count has increased for two consecutive weeks, but the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - term task. Russia has been attacked again, which is beneficial to the oil price. There are still concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is advisable to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][22][23] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upwards. The market expects sufficient supply, which is negative for the price. Russia's sanctions and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. It is advisable to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25] Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed mixed price movements. The downstream demand for polypropylene has increased in some areas, but the traditional PP product orders are weak. Investors can focus on long - term opportunities [26][27] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.19%. It is expected that the price of cis - butadiene rubber will fluctuate widely with limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the raw material market and supply changes [28] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.46%. It is expected that the natural rubber market still has room to rise in the short term. Attention can be paid to long - term opportunities [30][31] PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.72%. The current oversupply situation continues, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [32] Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. It is expected that the urea market will decline slightly in the next period. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The downside space is limited [33][34][35] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose 0.77%. In the short term, the PX supply - demand structure has improved, and it may oscillate and adjust with support below. Interval trading can be considered [36] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 1.21%. In the short term, the PTA processing fee is still low, and it may oscillate. Caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [37][38] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 1.08%. In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39] Short Fibers - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract fell 0.71%. In the short term, short fibers may oscillate following the cost. Attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2601 main contract rose 1.34%. It is expected that bottle chips will oscillate following the cost in the future. Attention should be paid to risk control [41] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 1.13%. The supply is still high, and the demand is improving. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of consumption [42] Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86680 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.64%. The copper price may oscillate at a high level [43][44][45] Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21795 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.82%. Aluminum may have a phased correction [46][47] Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22485 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. The zinc price will continue to oscillate within a range [48][49] Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17465 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.77%. The lead price will run within a range [50][51] Tin - On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell 1.12%. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly [52] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell 0.71%. The nickel price is expected to oscillate [53][54] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.98%, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.34%. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position exit opportunities when it continues to rise. For soybean oil, attention can be paid to long - term opportunities in the low - cost support range [55][56] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil ended a four - week losing streak. Palm oil can be considered for long - term buying during pullbacks [57][58][59] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures fell. For rapeseed meal, a strategy of buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts can be considered [60][62] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly. The USDA report raised the cotton production forecast, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [63][64] Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. The sugar price is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [65][67][68] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The apple price is expected to run strongly [69][70] Pigs - The national average price of pigs fell. In the second half of the month, the supply pressure may be gradually realized. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [71][73] Eggs - On the previous trading day, the main egg contract fell 0.26%. It is advisable to hold short positions [74][76] Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.23%, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.36%. Corn prices may face pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch may follow the corn market [77][78][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On November 7, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $63.63 per barrel, up 0.39%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan was $581.75 per ton, up 1.04% [1] - The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea was $693.50 per ton, up 0.14%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port was $825.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - **PTA** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,664 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the settlement price was 4,652 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - The closing price of CZCE TA's near - month contract was 4,616 yuan per ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4,608 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,574 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,572 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of foreign PTA was $620.00 per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The near - far month spread was - 44 yuan per ton, an increase of 38 yuan; the basis was - 92 yuan per ton, an increase of 56 yuan [1] - **PX** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,780 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the settlement price was 6,758 yuan per ton, up 0.99% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX's near - month contract was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98%; the settlement price was 6,786 yuan per ton, up 0.98% [1] - The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,502 yuan per ton, up 0.45%; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China was $826.00 per ton, down 0.12%; the spot price of p - xylene in FOB South Korea was $801.00 per ton, down 0.12% [1] - The PXN spread was $243.25 per ton, down 2.80%; the PX - MX spread was $131.50 per ton, down 1.50%; the basis was - 278 yuan per ton, an increase of 69 yuan [1] - **PR** - On November 7, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,724 yuan per ton, up 0.92% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PR's near - month contract was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53%; the settlement price was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.53% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the market price in the South China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [1] - The basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 64 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1] - **Downstream** - On November 7, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,525 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 0.37% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,050 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, up 2.24% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,620 yuan per ton, up 0.54%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,740 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the load rate of PTA factories in the PTA industry chain was 77.42%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 89.70%, unchanged; the load rate of bottle chip factories was 76.55%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 48.28%, down 21.72 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 46.68%, down 23.29 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 53.72%, down 89.32 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos was under maintenance, and the restart date was to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment was planned to be maintained at the end of this week, possibly shut down for 45 days, which remained to be watched [2] Market Analysis - **PX** - This week, the PX price rebounded after a decline, with the absolute price up 0.4% week - on - week to $823 per ton CFR on Friday. The weekly average price remained strong, up 0.2% week - on - week to $820 per ton CFR. The international oil price continued to be weak, and cost - side support was insufficient. The domestic PX supply remained stable, awaiting the realization of the expected changes in PTA devices [2] - Due to the release of sentiment from the news, the PX2601 contract closed at 6,780 yuan per ton (up 1.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 362,800 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, the PX load could still be effectively maintained even if there were fluctuations in the disproportionation or reform operations of domestic factories such as LIDONG and Hengli. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. Recently, market disturbances caused by rumors were obvious. Since 8.7 million tons of PTA devices were put into operation this year, it promoted the annual destocking of PX, which had an obvious supporting effect on PX. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to demand - side feedback [2] - **PTA** - Due to device changes, the TA2601 contract closed at 4,664 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 926,200 lots. On Thursday, the sales rate of polyester filament at the end of the session was around 228.61%, which was positive for the PTA market on Friday, and cost support remained. The PTA market rose slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuated within a limited range. Recently, many PTA device maintenance operations were carried out as planned, and the industry had long anticipated this. However, due to the continuously low processing fee, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, and there was actually no unexpected reduction. The domestic demand market was running moderately and weakly, but recently, the inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable. Generally speaking, the supply side could not eliminate the pressure only by short - term maintenance or shutdown [2] - **PR** - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,710 - 5,810 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures showed a warm - biased shock. Most offers on the supply side were raised, and the downstream purchasing willingness was average, mainly for replenishing stocks on a just - in - time basis [2] - Following the cost movement, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton (up 0.95%), with an intraday trading volume of 36,100 lots. The supply - side operation was temporarily stable, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream end - users were cautious, mainly following up with small just - in - time orders [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to have a moderately strong and volatile trend [2]. Core Viewpoints - The prices of PX, PTA, and PR are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The PX market is in a tight - balance situation, with stable supply and limited demand - side drive. The PTA market is affected by cost and supply - side factors, and the supply pressure cannot be eliminated by short - term maintenance. The PR market follows cost trends, with sufficient supply and cautious downstream procurement [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Prices**: On November 6, 2025, the futures settlement prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.29% and 0.22% respectively. The spot price of naphtha decreased by 0.30%, while the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) increased by 0.65% [1]. - **PTA Prices**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price increased by 1.91%, and the spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.75%. The CCFEI price indices of PTA both increased [1]. - **PX Prices**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price increased by 2.56%, and the spot price of domestic PX remained unchanged. The PXN and PX - MX spreads increased by 4.93% and 4.28% respectively [1]. - **PR Prices**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price increased by 1.31%, and the market prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East and South China markets increased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The CCFEI price indices of most downstream products remained unchanged, except for the polyester bottle - chip and polyester slice price indices, which increased, and the polyester short - fiber price index decreased by 0.32% [2]. Operating Conditions - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain increased by 1.82%. The load rates of PTA factories decreased by 0.42%, while those of polyester factories and bottle - chip factories increased by 0.14% and 0.92% respectively. The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rates**: The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester short - fiber, and polyester slice increased by 17.41%, 31.62%, and 96.76% respectively [1]. Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device in South China is under maintenance, and the restart date is undetermined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device in Southwest China is planned to be maintained this weekend and may be shut down for 45 days [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: The international crude oil market is volatile, and the domestic PX devices operate stably. Although some PX factories' reforming devices are under maintenance, the market supply remains stable. The PX benefit is expected to be volatile and stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance in the fourth quarter [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA price is pushed up by the cost of PX. Although there are many device maintenance plans, the supply is still sufficient. The domestic demand market is gradually weakening, but the foreign trade orders are increasing, and the short - term downstream demand is acceptable [2]. - **PR**: The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is moderately strong and volatile. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream procurement is cautious [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On November 5, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $59.60 per barrel, down 1.59% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $63.52 per barrel, down 1.43% [1] - **Naphtha**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on November 5, 2025, was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port on November 5, 2025, was $816.00 per ton, up 0.18%; the domestic spot price was 6504.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PTA**: The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market on November 5, 2025, was 4510.00 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the outer - market was $610.00 per ton (November 4), down 0.49% [1] - **PR**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market on November 5, 2025, was 5690.00 yuan per ton, down 0.44%; in the South China market, it was 5730.00 yuan per ton, down 0.52% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, chip, and bottle - grade chip showed little change or a slight decline on November 5, 2025 [2] Spread Information - **PXN Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $238.50 per ton, up 0.21% [1] - **PX - MX Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $129.00 per ton, up 0.78% [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: On November 5, 2025, it was - 36.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis of PTA was - 90.00 yuan per ton on November 5, 2025, a decrease of 11.00 yuan; the basis of PX was - 146.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the basis of PR in the East China market was 28.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.00 yuan; in the South China market, it was 68.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26.00 yuan [1] Operating Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 77.84%, down 1.82%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.56%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 52.59%, up 4.44%; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 38.35%, down 4.26%; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 46.28%, down 22.17% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: With the cooling of the overall risk appetite in the financial market, oil prices fluctuated and closed down. The domestic PX device supply was stable, and the demand - side PTA had both maintenance and restart. Some domestic PX plants had reformer maintenance, but the market supply remained stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices ran smoothly. A 700,000 - ton device in the Northeast was expanded to 1 million tons and was increasing production [2] - **PTA**: The market focus returned to the fundamentals. PTA spot supply was sufficient. The crude oil market fluctuated narrowly, and downstream demand was stable. A 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China started trial operation, which had limited impact on the market. The supply - side production reduction expectation failed, and downstream demand was generally weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side offers mostly decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose an opportunity to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and observe [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the medium - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern has weakened. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [16]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to be strong in the short term. One can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess. After a decline, one can consider low - level long positions when the spot falls into the loss range again [22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For fuel oil, one can focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [28]. - For polyolefins, one can focus on shorting opportunities [30]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [33]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on going long opportunities [35]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [37]. - For urea, the downward space is limited [38]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range and pay attention to controlling positions [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term. One should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate weakly in the short term. One should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [47]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side. One should control risks [48]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [50]. - For copper, it is in a phase of adjustment [52]. - For aluminum, it will run at a high level [55]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [57]. - For lead, one should be cautious about chasing long positions [59]. - For tin, it may oscillate strongly [60]. - For nickel, it may oscillate [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider taking profits on long positions in soybean meal when it continues to rise. One can temporarily observe soybean oil [63]. - For palm oil, one can consider going long during pullbacks [66]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [68]. - For cotton, the upside space is expected to be limited. The price is under pressure [72]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [75]. - For apples, one should wait and observe [78]. - For live pigs, one can consider shorting opportunities during rebounds [79]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and pay attention to adding short positions during subsequent rebounds [83]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and observe for corn. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan on the day. The US ADP employment data in October was better than expected [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no trending market for treasury bond futures [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose, while the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures declined slightly [8][9]. - The domestic economy remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is not strong, and the corporate profit growth rate is at a low level. However, the domestic asset valuation is at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. The U.S. labor market has further slowed down, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase in precious metals has been large, the pricing is relatively full, the heat is too high, and the volatility has increased [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, it is the traditional peak demand season, and downstream demand has slightly improved. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, but due to the deterioration of steel mill profitability, the weekly output of rebar has declined month - on - month. Currently, the rebar inventory is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The national daily pig iron output has dropped below 2.4 million tons, which is negative for the iron ore price. On the supply side, the import volume of iron ore and the output of domestic mines have continued to increase month - on - month after the second quarter. It is expected that the iron ore supply will turn to a year - on - year growth trend in the fourth quarter. Since October, the iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is close to that of the same period last year [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures opened low and closed high. For coking coal, production in major producing areas is restricted due to underground and environmental inspections, and the supply is slightly tight. On the demand side, some downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links have appropriately replenished their inventories, and market transactions are performing well. For coke, the third - round increase in the spot purchase price has been initiated but has not been fully implemented. Coking enterprise production is also affected by environmental factors. Due to the significant increase in coking coal prices recently, some coking enterprises have incurred losses and carried out centralized maintenance, resulting in a month - on - month decline in coke supply. Whether downstream steel mills will accept a new round of coke price increases remains to be observed after the compression of blast furnace profits [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon has rebounded, and the supply of Australian ore has increased since June. The port manganese ore inventory has slightly rebounded, and the port manganese ore quotation has stabilized at a low level. The main - producing area electricity price has stabilized, and the prices of coke and semi - coke have recovered from a low level. The cost of ferroalloys has increased from a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills last week was lower than that of the same period in 2024. The long - process gross profit of rebar in September declined. The production of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has remained at a high level, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply is still in excess. The exchange warehouse receipts have started to be registered rapidly, and the supply surplus has continued to drive inventory accumulation [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high, closing above the 5 - day moving average. The U.S. government shutdown has suspended the release of the CFTC position report. The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs has increased for the second consecutive week, reaching the highest level since June. India's largest Russian oil buyer will comply with Western sanctions on Moscow while maintaining relationships with existing oil suppliers [23]. - Although the number of Baker Hughes rigs has increased again, it is still a long way to go for the U.S. to increase crude oil production. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are positive for crude oil prices. OPEC will suspend production increases next year, which gives confidence to the crude oil market and supports the oil price increase [24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke below the moving average group. The delay in the resumption of the crude oil unit of Kuwait's al - Zour refinery has boosted the fuel oil market. The crack spread of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has reached the highest level in more than three weeks. It is expected that the supply of the Asian fuel oil market will be abundant in November, but the fundamentals may potentially support a moderate price increase. The east - west arbitrage spread has narrowed, and the amount of fuel oil arbitrage from Europe in December will decrease, reducing the Asian fuel oil supply. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the robust downstream marine fuel oil demand, but the increase in the sales of marine fuel oil loaded in the second half of November may drag down the spot spread [26][27]. - The market expects sufficient fuel oil supply, which is negative for the fuel oil price. Sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for the fuel oil price [27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer in the Hangzhou PP market declined. The global economic environment is weak, and merchants are cautious about the future market and offer discounts to promote transactions. In the Yuyao market, the price of LLDPE partially decreased. Merchants are actively selling goods to maintain the de - stocking rhythm, and the transaction center of gravity has continued to move down [29]. - On the supply side, the impact of maintenance in November is expected to be 416,000 tons, still at a high level of maintenance within the year. On the inventory side, the social inventory and downstream factory inventory are lower than the same period last year. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious, but there may be a collective replenishment in the future. On the demand side, the peak season for the start - up of agricultural films and packaging films in November is not prosperous, which exerts pressure on prices [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The cost side is weak, which has continuously pressured the negotiation center of gravity on the spot side. The price on the futures market has oscillated downward, and the price difference with natural rubber has widened to 4,000 yuan. It is expected that the downward space is limited. One should pay attention to the raw material market and supply - side changes in the future [31]. - The domestic butadiene market has accelerated its decline, reaching a new low for the year. The impact of the maintenance of the cis - butadiene units of Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical has emerged, and the weekly production and capacity utilization rate have decreased slightly. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. It is expected that the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises will slightly decrease next week [31][32]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber declined. The spot price in Shanghai has been adjusted downward, and the basis has remained stable. Last week, the price on the futures market oscillated, and there was a correction at the end of the week. In the future, one should focus on the phenological conditions in the producing areas and demand expectations [34]. - Overseas producing areas such as southern Thailand and Vietnam, as well as Hainan in China, have been affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, resulting in不畅 raw material release and high raw material procurement prices. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. The natural rubber inventory has continued to decline in both deep - and light - colored rubber, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The latest data shows that Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined, and the spot price was adjusted downward. The basis remained stable. The current situation of oversupply in the PVC market continues, but the space for a further significant downward movement may be limited. It still needs to wait for the fundamentals to further improve. After the holiday, one should focus on exports and supply reduction [36]. - According to Longzhong data, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Some downstream enterprises in the north have entered the off - season of demand, and their start - up rates are planned to be reduced. Affected by Indian holidays and anti - dumping duties, exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state and are expected to continue to decline. The overall digestion of PVC has decreased. In terms of cost and profit, coal prices have corrected, and semi - coke prices have increased. Due to unstable power supply and peak - shifting production, the calcium carbide price is relatively firm. The social inventory of PVC has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [36][37]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable. The basis has slightly narrowed. In the short term, one should pay attention to changes in export policies and signals of seasonal recovery in agricultural demand. It is expected that urea will fluctuate within a narrow range this week [38]. - Some previously shut - down urea production devices have gradually resumed operation this week, but they have not fully recovered, and production has increased slightly. The tail orders of autumn fertilizers are coming to an end, and some start - up rates may be affected. Coal prices have remained stable, and the cost side has basically remained the same. The factory quotes of urea this period first decreased and then increased slightly, but the overall average price has decreased, and the urea profit has continued to narrow. Only the new coal gasification process has a small profit, while the fixed - bed natural gas process is significantly in the red. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased compared with last week [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose slightly. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has declined. The operating rate of PX has increased to 87%. Fujia Dahua restarted at the end of October and produced products at the beginning of November. In September, the mainland's PX import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The oil price is still in a volatile and stalemate rhythm after the rebound from sanctions on Russia. One should pay attention to the situation in Venezuela [39]. - In the short term, the PX supply - demand structure has improved, the PXN spread is relatively firm, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil is in a volatile adjustment. Therefore, PX may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range, control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 rose slightly. On the supply side, Yisheng Dahua has slightly reduced its load, and the PTA operating rate has been adjusted to around 78%. Dushan Energy's 4th - phase 3 - million - ton PTA project has been put into production in October and is currently operating on two lines. In November, the planned PTA maintenance is expected to be more than restarts. Many PTA production facilities have planned maintenance. On the demand side, the polyester device has changed little, and the polyester operating rate is 91.7%. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals has increased, and factory raw material inventory has increased. In terms of efficiency, due to the mismatch between upstream and downstream, profits have been concentrated upstream, and the PTA processing fee has continued to decline [43]. - In the short term, the PTA processing fee is still low, the inventory is maintained at a low level, and the

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The view scores for PX, PTA, and PR are all 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On November 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.05 per barrel, up 0.11% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $64.89 per barrel, down 0.28% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $582.38 per ton, up 0.32%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $685 per ton, up 0.96% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $819 per ton, down 0.16%; the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4596 yuan per ton, up 0.22% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE TA main contract was 4606 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the closing price of CZCE TA near - month contract was 4542 yuan per ton, up 0.13% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE TA near - month contract was 4552 yuan per ton, up 0.26%; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4532 yuan per ton, up 0.44% [1] - The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4535 yuan per ton, up 0.55%; the CCFEI price index of PTA outer market was $616 per ton, up 0.65% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6640 yuan per ton, up 0.33%; the settlement price of CZCE PX main contract was 6662 yuan per ton, up 0.85% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX near - month contract was 6678 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price of CZCE PX near - month contract was 6690 yuan per ton, up 1.55% [1] - The domestic spot price of PX was 6480 yuan per ton, down 0.11%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Taiwan) was $821 per ton, unchanged [1] - The spot price of PX (FOB Korea) was $796 per ton, unchanged; the PXN spread was $236.63 per ton, down 1.34% [1] - The PX - MX spread was $134 per ton, down 5.52%; the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5674 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE PR main contract was 5686 yuan per ton, up 0.39%; the closing price of CZCE PR near - month contract was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.63% [1] - The settlement price of CZCE PR near - month contract was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.63%; the market price of polyester bottle chips in East China was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [1] - The market price of polyester bottle chips in South China was 5770 yuan per ton, up 0.35%; the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8500 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [1][2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 6825 yuan per ton, up 0.74%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6950 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6700 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6345 yuan per ton, down 0.16% [2] - The CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5600 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5730 yuan per ton, up 0.35% [2] Operating Conditions - On November 3, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 79.66%, unchanged [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.56%, up 0.22%; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle chip factories was 75.63%, up 2.32% [1] - The PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester filament was 53.04%, up 9.07% [1] - The sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48.41%, down 1.11%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 68.12%, up 22.49% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (designed capacity) PTA device No. 4 of Dushan Energy was tested on October 25, and after the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News - The market remained cautious about the US attack on Venezuela, and oil prices maintained a certain risk premium. However, OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which put pressure on oil prices. On November 3, the PX CFR China price was $819 per ton, and the international oil price fluctuated within a range, resulting in limited cost momentum. An expanded device in the Northeast restarted and was in stable production, and the overall demand performance was good [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5680 - 5820 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The positive news was less than expected, the PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, the overall market atmosphere was weak, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Long - Short Logic - PX followed the cost and slightly increased. The PX2601 contract closed at 6640 yuan per ton (up 0.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 174,200 lots. Some PX factories' reforming devices were under maintenance or about to be maintained, but with the supplement of toluene and xylene, the market PX supply remained stable. Overseas devices also operated stably, and there were no unexpected new changes. The call for anti - involution in the industry increased, but in the short term, without actual actions, it had limited impact on PX supply and demand. The PX export volume from South Korea to China in October increased compared with September, and the PX profitability fluctuated and remained stable in the short term, and the industry conference had no substantial impact [2] - The production reduction expectation of PTA was not fulfilled. The TA2601 contract closed at 4596 yuan per ton (up 0.31%), with an intraday trading volume of 638,900 lots. The crude oil market fluctuated strongly, providing cost support for PTA, and the PTA market increased slightly. The spot supply was sufficient, and there were no unexpected device overhauls, and the spot basis slightly decreased. A new 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China was tested and produced. It was expected that enterprises would start the new device and shut down the old one later. The production reduction expectation on the supply side failed, and it might be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan due to the large amount of shutdown capacity of some major suppliers before. Although domestic demand was good and foreign trade orders improved recently, the overall downstream demand was still weak. Terminal customers were waiting and seeing or required a discount on the polyester product price, and the actual trading volume was small, indicating that the market had poor confidence in the subsequent market. Overall, the supply side could not relieve the pressure only through overhauls or shutdowns [2] - PR followed the cost. The PR2601 contract closed at 5674 yuan per ton (up 0.18%), with an intraday trading volume of 31,900 lots. Some devices on the supply side increased their loads, and the overall market supply was loose. The downstream terminal purchasing sentiment was cautious, and the market demand was weak [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX benefit will remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to subsequent industry meetings. For PTA, if demand does not improve sustainably, the upward space will be limited. The PR market has sufficient supply and weak demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) remained unchanged, while the external price index was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D remained unchanged at 6,950 yuan per ton; FDY150D remained unchanged at 6,700 yuan per ton; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chips remained unchanged at 5,605 yuan per ton; bottle - grade chips were 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2]. Spread Information - On October 29, 2025, the PXN spread was $246.88 per ton, up 0.61%; the PX - MX spread was $137.00 per ton, up 1.86%. The TA near - far month spread was - 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the TA basis was - 101 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The PX basis was - 201 yuan per ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The PR basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; in the South China market, it was 54 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - As of October 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.09%, up 0.63%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.28%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 73.31%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20% [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On October 29, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak, and the oil price cooled down after horizontal adjustment. The domestic PX operating load remained high, and the PTA main suppliers' symposium was about to be held. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors about a refinery's shutdown had no follow - up, and overseas devices ran smoothly. The call for anti - involution in the industry had little impact on PX supply and demand in the short - term [2]. - **PTA**: The industry meeting boosted market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. The PTA market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot basis strengthened slightly under the expectation of production reduction. The new PTA device in East China started trial production, but the anti - involution expectation offset its impact. It may be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan, and the upward space will be limited without continuous demand improvement [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the market atmosphere was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The supply of the bottle - chip market was relatively sufficient, and the demand was weak [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX view is scored 0, the PTA view is scored 0, and the PR view is scored 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market on October 28 was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1] - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chip was 5,605 yuan per ton, unchanged; bottle - grade chip was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester filament on October 29, 2025, was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; polyester chip was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1] Operating Rate - On October 29, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.09%, up 0.63 percentage points; polyester factories was 89.28%, unchanged; bottle - chip factories was 73.31%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak. After short - term digestion of geopolitical and macro - emotions, there was no new positive news. The PX CFR China price on October 29 was $818 per ton, with cost - end oil prices fluctuating in a range. The domestic PX operating load remained high. The PTA main - supplier symposium was about to be held, and participants were still confident in the future supply - demand outlook. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors of a refinery's possible shutdown had no follow - up. Overseas devices were stable. The PX profit was expected to fluctuate stably in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industry meeting continued to boost market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. Traders awaited PTA meeting news. Crude oil failed to recover losses. PTA prices fluctuated narrowly. Under the expectation of production cuts, the spot basis strengthened slightly. The new PTA device in East China started trial production. The anti - involution expectation offset the impact of new capacity. It might be difficult to coordinate new production - cut plans. The increase in the terminal loom operating rate and good polyester filament sales were positive for the market [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5,710 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, with a weak market atmosphere and low downstream purchasing willingness. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The bottle - chip market supply was relatively abundant, and downstream demand was weak [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to experience narrow - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On October 28, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and various upstream products such as naphtha and xylene decreased. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $60.15 per barrel, down 1.89% from the previous value; the Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $64.40 per barrel, down 1.86% [1]. - The prices of PTA and PX futures and spot showed mixed trends. For example, the CZCE TA main - contract settlement price was 4,614 yuan per ton, up 0.79%, and the CZCE PX main - contract settlement price was 6,612 yuan per ton, up 0.36% [1]. - The prices of PR futures and spot also changed. The CZCE PR main - contract settlement price was 5,720 yuan per ton, up 0.67%, and the prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets increased [1]. - The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips increased on October 28, 2025 [2]. Industry Information - Dushan Energy's 4 2.7 - million - ton PTA device started trial operation on October 25, 2025, and will shut down the old device after the new one runs stably [2]. - The market has initially priced in the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, due to Saudi Arabia's push to regain market share, oil prices may face oversupply pressure [2]. - The domestic PX operating load is at a high level, and a device in the Northeast may complete capacity expansion at the end of the month. The demand from the PTA side is okay, and the market game atmosphere has intensified [2]. - The sentiment in the PTA market was boosted by the industry meeting. Although the new PTA capacity in East China started trial production, the expectation of anti - involution offset its impact. However, it may be difficult to coordinate a new production - cut plan [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region had a mainstream negotiation price range of 5,730 - 5,830 yuan per ton on October 28, 2025, up 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side offer intention increased, but the downstream buying was weak [2]. Production and Sales - On October 28, 2025, the operating rates of the PX, PTA, polyester, bottle - chip, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom industries in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged [1]. - The production - sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips decreased. The polyester filament production - sales rate was 62.50%, down 7.50 percentage points; the polyester staple fiber production - sales rate was 43.50%, down 39.93 percentage points; and the polyester chip production - sales rate was 57.61%, down 164.56 percentage points [1]. Trading Volume - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of the PX2601 contract was 162,800 lots, the trading volume of the TA2601 contract was 755,500 lots, and the trading volume of the PR2601 contract was 31,200 lots [2]