1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term EB is in high - level oscillation. The styrene downstream profit is continuously squeezed, in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The market's high expectation for the post - Spring Festival demand may lead to negative feedback. Styrene inventory has reached a short - term low and will gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern, with limited upward momentum. The short - term styrene profit is high, and the absolute price enters an oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the restart of shutdown devices [3][66]. - According to the crude oil valuation of $60, the reasonable valuation range of BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [3][66]. - EB processing fee will expand profit in the short term [3][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their load after solving the quota problem to make up for part of the production loss. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene from the new production of BASF Zhanjiang [3][66]. - Pure benzene imports: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, which is estimated to affect 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [3][66]. - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the device operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the increase from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [3][66]. - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has started, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of maintenance are expected, and in January, 60,000 tons. The main factories are Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, Xuyang Cangzhou, etc. In December, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project, and in January, the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei. Attention should be paid to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the device [3][66]. Demand - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December, 30,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [3][66]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons were under maintenance, mainly in Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, Chongqing BASF, etc. The maintenance loss was 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][66]. - The demand for the three downstream products of styrene (3s) exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for the post - Spring Festival boom, stimulating the restocking process of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price increase of 3s [3][66]. Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting BZ on rallies [3][66]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the reverse spread of EB02 - 03 [3][66]. - Inter - variety: Take short - term profit on PX - BZ [3][66].