1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term EB is in high - level oscillation. The styrene downstream profit is continuously squeezed, in a pattern of high production and high inventory. The market's high expectation for the post - Spring Festival demand may lead to negative feedback. Styrene inventory has reached a short - term low and will gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern, with limited upward momentum. The short - term styrene profit is high, and the absolute price enters an oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the restart of shutdown devices [3][66]. - According to the crude oil valuation of $60, the reasonable valuation range of BZ2603 contract is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton [3][66]. - EB processing fee will expand profit in the short term [3][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Pure benzene domestic production: In December, 110,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, the maintenance volume remained at 110,000 tons (assuming a reduction of 45,000 tons due to the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical). Some Shandong local refineries will increase their load after solving the quota problem to make up for part of the production loss. In January, attention should be paid to the increase in pure benzene from the new production of BASF Zhanjiang [3][66]. - Pure benzene imports: Although the overseas inventory pressure is still high, the overall import volume has decreased. The average monthly import volume of pure benzene from January to March 2026 is about 430,000 tons. The US - South Korea tariff still exists, but the US - Asia aromatics logistics may continue after the Spring Festival, which is estimated to affect 30,000 - 40,000 tons of pure benzene per month [3][66]. - Styrene: In December, 85,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 65,000 tons were under maintenance. After December, the device operation gradually recovered. Attention should be paid to the increase from the operation of Shandong Guoen Chemical's device [3][66]. - Caprolactam: CPL negative feedback has started, and factories are gradually reducing their loads. In December, 40,000 tons of maintenance are expected, and in January, 60,000 tons. The main factories are Fujian Yongrong, Tianchen, Hualu Hengsheng, Xuyang Cangzhou, etc. In December, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the Hengyi Qinzhou project, and in January, the expansion of Shaanxi Yangmei. Attention should be paid to whether the recent profit recovery of caprolactam will lead to the early restart of the device [3][66]. Demand - Phenol: The operation is gradually picking up. In December, 30,000 tons were under maintenance, and in January, 10,000 tons. The commissioning of Shandong Ruilin's new device may be postponed [3][66]. - Aniline: In December, 70,000 tons were under maintenance, mainly in Ningbo Wanhua, Shanghai Covestro, Chongqing BASF, etc. The maintenance loss was 77,000 tons. Some devices extended their maintenance plans, and the operation in January may be lower than expected [3][66]. - The demand for the three downstream products of styrene (3s) exceeded expectations. After the market rose rapidly last week, downstream factories entered the restocking cycle. Currently, home appliance factories are preparing for the post - Spring Festival boom, stimulating the restocking process of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price increase of 3s [3][66]. Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting BZ on rallies [3][66]. - Inter - period: Pay attention to the reverse spread of EB02 - 03 [3][66]. - Inter - variety: Take short - term profit on PX - BZ [3][66].

BZ&Eb周报：BZ处于区间上沿，关注逢 高空的机会 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：原油地缘风险高开之后，关注逢高空的机会 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。部分山东 地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在48万吨左右的高进口，2月之后的进口 仍然在45万吨左右。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月关注恒逸 ...