Thank you very much indeed. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset joins me now. Kevin, welcome back.That was a strong jobs report. How does a strong labor market translate into lower interest rates. >> Right.Well, first of all, I got to say that Ed did a great job summarizing the headlines. I would just add a couple more and then I'll go into the interest rate story. Uh the first is that there's been the story that everybody's been worried about that AI is going to make it so that nobo ...

Economic Growth and Policy - The current economic agenda is focused on pro-growth measures, including tax cuts for consumers and businesses, lower interest rates, and significant deregulation aimed at reversing the regulatory framework established after the global financial crisis [3][4]. - The budget deficit has reportedly decreased by approximately $90 billion compared to January of the previous year, indicating a period of growth that is generating higher tax revenues [4]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Recent manufacturing data shows a notable improvement, with the Institute for Supply Managers reporting strong new orders and production figures, suggesting a recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][10]. - The negative impact of tariffs on manufacturing has diminished, leading to a resurgence in growth within the sector, aided by immediate expensing of capital equipment [10]. Future Economic Outlook - There is optimism for GDP growth in 2026, with expectations of a growth spurt occurring in the latter half of 2025 as well [5][7]. - The appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman is anticipated to positively influence economic conditions, with a focus on achieving high growth alongside low inflation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic scenario in the U.S. is characterized by strong growth and low inflation, attributed to effective policies from the Trump administration, particularly in tax and trade areas [1][3][18]. Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate has exceeded expectations, with predictions of reaching around 4% or even higher in the coming quarters [2][12]. - Historical comparisons are made to the Reagan era, where similar tax policies led to significant growth without inflation [5][19]. Inflation Dynamics - Current inflation rates are low, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported at 1.6%, indicating growth without accompanying inflation [9][20]. - The relationship between supply-side policies and inflation is emphasized, suggesting that increased productivity and supply can mitigate inflationary pressures [10][27]. Trade Policy Impact - A significant reduction in the trade deficit has contributed to GDP growth, with imports from China dropping from 22% in 2017 to 9% currently, which supports domestic wage growth and real incomes [15][18]. Market Sentiment - Consumer optimism is reflected in spending patterns, which are expected to drive further economic growth [29]. - The sentiment around precious metals, such as gold, is also linked to economic optimism and technological demand [30]. Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates may need to adapt to the current economic conditions, as strong growth does not necessarily lead to inflation [20][27]. - There is speculation about potential reforms within the Fed to better align with supply-side economic principles [21][23].

Economic Outlook - The American economy is not overheating, and there are no immediate signs of a hot economy that would lead to significant inflation [1][2] - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) report suggests that inflation is not being driven by a tight labor market [2][3] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a mild quantitative easing (QE) program, starting with Treasury bill purchases, which was above market expectations [3][4] - There is a shift from quantitative tightening (QT) to QE, indicating a more accommodative monetary policy [4][11] Inflation and Tariffs - Powell indicated that the effects of tariffs on inflation are temporary, and if no new tariffs are imposed, inflation could decrease in the latter half of next year [5][8] - The recognition that tariff impacts are one-time increases rather than ongoing inflationary pressures is seen as a positive development [10] Employment Data - Powell suggested that payroll numbers may be revised to show slight negative growth, which aligns with recent ADP data [11][12] - The discussions within the Fed are characterized as thoughtful and respectful, reflecting a range of opinions on monetary policy direction [18] Corporate Engagement - President Trump is engaging with CEOs from major companies like IBM and Qualcomm to discuss the impact of AI on the economy, which Powell acknowledged as beneficial [13]

Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve's forecasting has been criticized for its consistent inaccuracies, particularly in predicting GDP during different presidential terms, indicating a bias in their economic models [3][5][6] - There is a belief that inflation has not yet reached its lowest point and will decrease as the productive side of the economy improves, with expectations of wage increases driven by supply-side policies [4][8] - Concerns about the U.S. bond market's performance suggest a potential economic boom, with anticipated GDP growth exceeding 3%, which could stabilize the deficit [8] Trump Savings Accounts - The introduction of Trump savings accounts aims to provide financial literacy and ownership in the economy for newborns, with an initial deposit of $1,000 and the potential for additional contributions [10][11] - The initiative has garnered support from notable figures, such as Michael Dell, who contributed $6.5 billion, highlighting a collaborative effort to enhance economic participation among young individuals [10][12] - This program is seen as a significant aspect of the broader economic policy, promoting capitalism and investment education [11][12]

分组1 - The current state of the US economy is characterized by confusion regarding the labor market and the impact of tariffs, leading to a wide dispersion in views among Federal Reserve members [2][3][28] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process reflects a strong emphasis on maintaining independence, as evidenced by the lack of dissent among members regarding rate cuts, which is seen as a positive sign for market stability [4][19][29] - The Phillips curve framework suggests that rising unemployment may keep wage inflation low, allowing the Fed to overlook current inflation rates and potentially cut rates in the future [6][7][34] 分组2 - Small-cap stocks are showing significant movement, with the SML small cap 600 index up 2%, indicating that domestic companies are likely to benefit later in the rate cut cycle [10][11] - The bond market remains relatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4%, suggesting that mortgage rates may not decrease significantly despite expectations of rate cuts [12][14] - The ongoing capital expenditure (capex) cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment is expected to enhance productivity and profit margins, positively impacting equity markets [22][25][26]

Let's go back now to our esteemed panel. Steve is still there. We still got to look through it.By the way, I'm trying to recycle the internet so I can compare the two. Francis, your immediate take on this decision. >> Well, hearing about that dot plot, maybe it'll come in defense of the dot plot.There'll be a lot of comments about this being very political in nature, but this wide dispersion in views on this Fed >> the Fed way thought the Fed wasn't political. >> Well, it's independent. >> It's independent. ...

Economic Theory - The Phillips curve suggests a stable and inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment [1]