ab 21 January 2026 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research China Economic Perspectives China Housing Survey: weak sentiment, notable divergence Housing purchase intention & sentiment stayed subdued, albeit slightly better UBS Evidence Lab's latest China Housing survey of 2,500 respondents across mainland China (28 October-18 November 2025; > Access Dataset) shows a marginal improvement in housing purchase intention and overall sentiment from previously depressed levels, while both still remain subdu ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 19 January 2026 China housing: broad-based weakness at year-end Downturn to persist in 2026 without major policy shift JPM's housing activity index edged up at year-end. Most indicators continued to contract sharply despite modest narrowing: new home sales -18.9%oya, new starts -18.8%, completions -20.6%, real estate FAI -36.5%, and funding sources -28.1%. NBS 70-city new home prices fell 0.37%m/m nsa (vs. -0.39% in November), and secondary prices dropped 0.70% ...

Economic Growth - China's economy grew at 4.8% in the July-September quarter, marking the slowest annual pace in a year, attributed to trade tensions with the U.S. and weak domestic demand [1][2] - The World Bank predicts China's economy to expand 4.9% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, while S&P Global economists project a slip in GDP growth for 2026 [5][6] Trade and Exports - Despite U.S. tariffs, China's overall exports remained resilient, with global exports climbing 8.3% in September, although exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year on year [4] Monetary Policy and Economic Support - To counter the slowing economy, China may implement policy easing, including slashing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to support liquidity and an easy money policy [7][8] - The central bank aims to boost domestic demand and improve supply while managing financial risks [8] Corporate Earnings Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts corporate profit growth to accelerate to 14% in 2026 and 2027, up from an expected 4% in 2025, driven by advances in artificial intelligence and supportive policies [12] - Interest in China ETFs is reviving due to policy easing and resilient exports, with expectations of earnings growth in tech and small-cap sectors [11] Market Projections - The MSCI China Index is projected to rise 20% to 100 by the end of 2026, while the CSI 300 Index is forecast to rally 12% to 5,200 [13] - Specific ETFs like Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) and iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF (ECNS) have shown significant gains over the past year, indicating strong interest in the tech sector [14][15]

Key Takeaways Precious metals surged on safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, lifting GLD, SLV, PPLT, PALL.Silver and platinum outpaced gold this year on industrial demand and tight supply dynamics.Policy easing and geopolitical risks could keep metal ETFs supported into 2026.Precious metals rallied to record highs ahead of Christmas. Gold edged past the $4,500-per-ounce mark for the first time on Wednesday, while silver and platinum also touched fresh all-time highs, as investors rushed into precious meta ...

Core Viewpoint - The Meridian Hedged Equity Fund's third-quarter 2025 performance reflects a market more influenced by policy easing than weakening fundamentals, achieving a net return of 1.67% despite concerns over stagflation [1] Fund Performance - The fund's return of 1.67% in Q3 2025 is compared to the S&P 500 Index's return of 8.13% and the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index's return of 3.53% [1] Company Focus: Kenvue Inc. - Kenvue Inc. (NYSE:KVUE), a consumer health company with brands like Tylenol and Neutrogena, is highlighted as a key investment despite a one-month return of -0.06% and a 52-week loss of 21.06% [2][3] - Kenvue's stock closed at $17.02 on December 23, 2025, with a market capitalization of $32.609 billion [2] Investment Rationale for Kenvue Inc. - The fund sees potential for Kenvue to unlock value through reinvestment in underfunded brands, cost optimization, and margin improvement [3] - Recent market reactions to studies linking acetaminophen to autism risk during pregnancy are viewed as overblown, with minimal revenue impact expected from pregnant women, who represent less than 1% of Tylenol's global sales [3] Hedge Fund Interest - Kenvue Inc. was held by 73 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q3 2025, an increase from 72 in the previous quarter, indicating growing interest [4] - Despite this interest, the fund suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk compared to Kenvue [4]

Core Insights - The Meridian Hedged Equity Fund reported a return of 1.67% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 Index which returned 8.13% and the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index which returned 3.53% [1] Company Overview - Liberty Broadband Corporation (NASDAQ:LBRDK) is a communication services provider based in Englewood, Colorado, with a market capitalization of $6.854 billion [2] - The company has a 26% ownership stake in Charter Communications and full ownership of GCI, a broadband and wireless provider in Alaska [3] Investment Case - Liberty Broadband's shares are trading at a significant discount to the value of its underlying assets, primarily its stake in Charter Communications, with a prospective merger between the two companies seen as a key catalyst for value realization [3] - The stock has underperformed due to negative sentiment in the cable sector following Charter's weaker second-quarter earnings [3] - Liberty completed the spin-off of its GCI subsidiary into a standalone entity in July, which saw GCI's shares rise approximately 20% post-listing, partially offsetting Liberty's earlier stock weakness [3] - Following the announcement of a definitive merger agreement with Charter, Liberty's shares have shown some recovery, allowing management to focus on maximizing value from its Charter investment [3]

Vi e w p o i n t | 15 Dec 2025 02:56:30 ET │ 15 pages China Property Nov NBS: Sharpest-ever Investment Drop; Time Needed to Stabilize CITI'S TAKE Nov NBS: weakness on all fronts; REI -30%yoy, a record-high — Nov-alone: [1] REI -30.3%yoy (Oct: -22.5%), the sharpest drop on record, with REI of Rmb0.5trn a monthly low since Apr-2012 (excl. CNY); [2] Completion -26%yoy (Oct: -28%); [3] Starts -28%yoy (Oct -29%); [4] Residential sales -28% (Oct: -25%), largest single month drop since May'24; resi GFA sold -19% ( ...

Michael Gray has devoted his career to following the capital markets and managing fixed income assets. He founded Gray Capital Management LLC and before that was Head of Taxable Fixed Income at Fidelity Investments. Michael has an MBA in Finance from Wharton and a BA in Economics from Union College.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market conditions indicate a potential turning point driven by a rebound in US liquidity, a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy, and increasing adoption of AI technologies, which could reshape the outlook for tech and crypto sectors [1][2][4]. Liquidity - US market liquidity is experiencing a decisive reversal after reaching a multi-year low in late October, with a significant $621 billion drain due to a six-week government shutdown, followed by a release of $70 billion back into the markets [2][3]. - An estimated $300 billion is expected to return to the market as the Treasury General Account normalizes, coinciding with a projected 90% chance of a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Policy Easing - The end of quantitative tightening on December 1 is seen as a critical inflection point that markets have not fully priced in, suggesting that supportive monetary policy conditions are developing [4]. - The combination of returning liquidity and supportive monetary policy is believed to create favorable conditions for markets to reverse recent drawdowns [4]. AI Adoption - Cathie Wood highlights a significant gap between consumer AI adoption and enterprise productivity, suggesting that this "productivity drought" could serve as a catalyst for the next bull market in AI and crypto [2][5]. - The liquidity squeeze affecting AI and crypto is expected to reverse in the coming weeks, with market reactions indicating a positive reception to this thesis, as evidenced by an 8% rally in ARK holdings following a recent webinar [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic outlook and policy measures in China, particularly focusing on the People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rates Held Steady**: The PBoC has maintained the Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) at 3.0% for the 1-year tenor and 3.5% for the 5-year tenor for six consecutive months, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2][3]. - **Fiscal Consolidation Observed**: Recent fiscal data shows an 8.6% year-over-year increase in tax revenue for October, while overall expenditure has contracted by 19.1% year-over-year, suggesting a trend towards fiscal consolidation [2][3]. - **Weakness in Property Sector**: There is a notable absence of new support measures for the property sector despite ongoing data weakness, with home sales and prices showing limited signs of stabilization [2][5]. - **Growth Target Feasibility**: The report suggests that achieving the 5% annual growth target for 2025 remains feasible, with a projected growth of approximately 4.5% year-over-year in Q4 2025 [3][4]. - **Policy Space for 2026**: Policymakers are likely to conserve policy space for 2026, the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), with expectations for potential rate cuts and fiscal measures to support consumer spending and welfare [1][4][5]. Additional Important Insights - **Next Policy Window**: The next significant policy window is anticipated to be after the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), with potential for a new round of property support measures and front-loading of government bond issuance for 2026 [1][4][5]. - **Incremental Property Support**: There are hints at possible incremental measures for property support, including interest subsidies for mortgage borrowers and additional funding for property developers, although the central government is not expected to utilize its balance sheet directly [5][9]. - **Long-term Constraints**: Long-standing constraints on further easing remain, particularly concerning debt levels for the MoF and net interest margin (NIM) concerns for the PBoC [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and anticipated policy actions in China.