Airlines have long been champions of price discrimination. Two charts show how some of America’s big legacy carriers have started charging more for solo travellers https://t.co/5P3Rui8XhT ...

Airlines have long been champions of price discrimination. Two charts show how some of America’s big legacy carriers have started charging more for solo travellers https://t.co/OCyQbKkNsb ...

Core Insights - A new study indicates that Uber successfully raised fares, reduced driver pay, and increased profits through a pricing strategy known as "upfront pricing" [1][4][21] Group 1: Pricing Strategy - In 2022, Uber transitioned to "upfront pricing," which provides riders with a price and drivers with potential earnings before trip acceptance [2][3] - This pricing model utilizes various factors beyond trip length and demand to set prices, allowing for more precise pricing strategies [2][3] - The implementation of upfront pricing has been linked to a significant stock price increase of nearly 300% over three years [3][6] Group 2: Financial Impact - The study found that upfront pricing enabled Uber to systematically raise rider fares while cutting driver pay across billions of rides [4][21] - The take rate, or the percentage of fare that Uber retains, increased from approximately 32% in 2022 to about 42% by the end of 2024, with some trips seeing Uber take over 50% [19][21] - The financial performance of Uber improved significantly, culminating in the company reporting its first annual profit in 2023 [6] Group 3: Driver Experience - The analysis, based on data from a single driver, revealed that driver earnings have decreased since the introduction of upfront pricing, despite rising operational costs [8][10] - The driver in the study experienced pay cuts starting in September 2022, coinciding with the rollout of the new pricing model [10] - Many drivers have reported a significant drop in their share of fares, with one driver noting a decrease from over 50% to less than 30% of the total fare [12][13] Group 4: Economic Theory - The study suggests that Uber has mastered "price discrimination," allowing it to determine the maximum price riders are willing to pay and the minimum drivers will accept [5][6] - This concept, previously theoretical, has been operationalized by Uber through its data and algorithms, positioning the company as a leader in this pricing strategy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings Inc with a 12-month price target of US$165.00, down from a previous target of US$193.00 [8][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 10% year-over-year revenue growth to Rmb96 billion in 1Q25, which missed expectations by 8%, primarily due to transaction services linked to Temu [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was Rmb16.9 billion, missing by Rmb11 billion or 39%, attributed to increased sales and marketing spending and lower investment income [2][4]. - The management's cautious tone reflects macroeconomic uncertainties and significant investments impacting profitability, leading to expectations of street downgrades [12]. Revenue and Earnings Analysis - Online market services (OMS) revenue grew by 14.5%, slightly below the consensus of 18%, due to targeted subsidies affecting ad income [3]. - Transaction service revenue missed by Rmb6 billion, primarily due to Temu's challenges in the US market, including tariff impacts and logistical disruptions [4]. - Sales and marketing expenses increased by 44% year-over-year, indicating a shift in customer acquisition strategies [5]. - Investment income decreased significantly, with a net miss of Rmb2 billion, likely due to mark-to-market or impairment losses [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been cut by 28-43%, reflecting increased domestic investments and widening losses for Temu [13]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, estimating total revenues of Rmb406.1 billion for 2025, down from a prior estimate of Rmb456.5 billion [15]. - Non-GAAP net income for 2025 is projected at Rmb79.7 billion, a reduction of 43% from previous estimates [15]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a significant drop in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, with estimates for 2025 at 13.2x, down from 11.0x previously [15]. - The equity free cash flow yield is projected to be 11.7% for 2025, indicating strong cash generation potential despite current challenges [7]. - The valuation methodology is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with core e-commerce operations valued at Rmb137.9 billion [16]. Market Context - PDD Holdings operates in a competitive e-commerce landscape, focusing on value-for-money products and expanding into international markets through Temu [18]. - The report notes that domestic operations are currently profitable, contrasting with Temu's ongoing losses, which are impacting overall profitability [11].